Rooting Interests Updated
So you're telling me there's a chance!!!!
Basically we now have the same record as MSU, PSU, and OSU. We are currently tied with PSU for third in the BIG Ten East, with PSU having a h2h tiebreaker on us. We need the following to happen to give us a legitimate shot:
1) Michigan Wins Out!!!! (One can dream)
2) OSU beats Sparty and Illinois (very likely)
3) One of Rutgers, Nebraska, or Maryland shocks the world and shocks PSU. (Highly unlikely but about as unlikely as OSU getting smoked by an Iowa team that puts up 55 points)
EDIT: 4) MSU loses again to one of Rutgers and Maryland (not going to happen)
We need 1-4 to happen and we would win the big ten east. Basically next weeks OSU/MSU game is for all the East marbles barring a miracle.
November 5th, 2017 at 10:02 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 10:03 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 11:11 AM ^
We're barely going to move into the Top 25. Sorry, but we have no shot at the playoffs. None. No BIG team does now except Wisconsin.
November 5th, 2017 at 10:03 AM ^
We win out impressively.
OSU wins our division with three total losses.
OSU thumps Wisconsin.
We get picked for the playoff. Because other things happen elsewhere. And ratings.
Pretty sad, I guess.
November 5th, 2017 at 10:20 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 10:49 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 11:49 PM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 10:09 AM ^
MSU has a defense almost as good as ours and QB that has been progressing all season (not on their 3rd QB) and a set of great athletic receivers.
I can easily see them beating OSU next week and winning out. There is no way they lose two games to get us a shot.
That said, I just want us to win out and get our QB and receivers more experience and hopefully win a Florida bowl against a SEC squad we haven't played recently like SC or LSU.
Our best senario -grounded in reality- is to win out and play Outback in Tampa or TaxSlayer (Gator) in Jacksonville.
November 6th, 2017 at 12:49 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 10:13 AM ^
If the first three things happen that are listed above......
Michigan wins out, OSU wins all except against us, and PSU drops one more game..
That would give:
MSU: 2 conference losses
OSU: 2 conference losses
UM: 2 conference losses
PSU: 3 conference losses
PSU is therefore eliminated and it goes to a 3-way tie between MSU-PSU-UM. First look at head-to-head amongst the 3 teams. All would have a 1-1 record, so they go to the next tie breaker which is overall record. UM with 2 losses, the rest with 3, so UM is division champions.
The team's head-to-head vs PSU is not part of the equation if they are not tied with them (which they would not be if they lost another game).
If OSU wins out they are division champs
if MSU wins otu they are division champs
PSU needs to win out and the winner of MSU/OSU game to drop a game to be division champs
November 5th, 2017 at 10:22 AM ^
My understanding is that means the records against each other. Other people are saying it means overall record. That answer makes a huge difference in how narrow our odds would be to pull this shit off.
November 5th, 2017 at 10:24 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 10:28 AM ^
Tiebreaker #7 makes the meaning clear:
7. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
Overall winning percentage = non-conference games. That's where the overall record comes in.
November 5th, 2017 at 10:31 AM ^
It is the record they have against each other. Overall record comparison is tie breaker #7
7. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
And it is nearly impossible to get down the that level of tie breaker in any given year. Basically, it's pretty hard to get rewarded for playing 3 cupcakes. As it should be.
November 5th, 2017 at 10:27 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 10:33 AM ^
But once somebody loses one of the steps, they are out and the tie breaker process starts over.
http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/archive/081011aaa.html
November 5th, 2017 at 10:28 AM ^
The loss to msu is gonna be what does us in. Even if all of the above were to happen, the way things are going around the country (ND being good, SEC possibly getting 2 teams in) we aren't making the playoffs. However, a Big Ten championship would be very welcome after 15 years of not winning it. It would be the first step to regaining dominance in the conference which leads to bigger things.
November 5th, 2017 at 10:47 AM ^
The OSU loss may be dvr'd at 4:00 am on ESPNU
November 5th, 2017 at 11:02 AM ^
Or BTN right now
November 5th, 2017 at 10:48 AM ^
The real takeaway is that while points #1 and #2 are plausible, we need Rutgers/Maryland/Nebraska/whoever to beat not just MSU but also PSU. Which isn't happening. Which is why this is a bad thread.
November 5th, 2017 at 12:14 PM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 1:25 PM ^
The original thread before editing had some incorrect info on the tiebreakers. I think it's fine if you want to start a discussion thread, pose it as a question as to what the possibilities are and work through the options that's fine. But if you're going to take the position that you understand the tiebreakers and here is what we need to happen to get it right, then you should put in the time to get it right. But at least it has now been edited to correct original mistake.
November 5th, 2017 at 10:51 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 10:52 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 10:57 AM ^
Remember that bowl game selections are not based on merit but on TV dollars. So I would bet we end up in the Holiday Bowl there.
November 5th, 2017 at 11:05 AM ^
According to Massey, our odds:
- PSU loses at least one more game (12.5%)
- MSU loses at least two more games (20.7%)
- UM wins out (12.1%)
Overall odds of UM winning Big Ten:
0.31%
Now that we're above the odds of The Punt, we can definitively say that crazier things have happened.
November 5th, 2017 at 11:12 AM ^
Probably it is a bit less than that. Most of the models have Maryland overrated because they don't account for injuries. Maryland at 60th is being rated better than they are, with a better chance of beating PSU in their only remaining road game, because the model is still including data from when they were better because they still had their 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th string QBs or whatever.
November 5th, 2017 at 11:29 AM ^
they have Maryland's odds of beating us at 17%, and MSU at 15%. Both of those are probably way too high.
If you ignore all the games of UM, MSU, and PSU vs. Maryland, the odds change to:
- UM wins out (14.6%)
- PSU loses to Rutgers or Nebraska (5.9%)
- MSU loses to OSU and Rutgers (10.8%)
Overall odds are now 0.093%
So we're back below the punt again. Booo!
November 5th, 2017 at 12:16 PM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 11:06 AM ^
If we win out...finish 10-2...play in a major Bowl and finish in a tie for the Division Crown...Ill take it..It still goes down in the record books as a Divison Title and a step forward.....GO BLUE
November 5th, 2017 at 11:10 AM ^
PSU losing again would NOT surprise me at all..In a span of about 8 days they went from #2 in the nation to 2 losses..with everything eliminated for them...they will be unmotivtaed in the nxt couple of games...could happen
November 5th, 2017 at 11:15 AM ^
Kinda feels like they were never that good and threw everything they had at us because of how we embarrassed them last year. Which was a perfect storm with our lack of QB play.
November 5th, 2017 at 11:16 AM ^
Eh, are they really that different than before? They lost two road games in the final minutes against quality teams.
If they were playing a competent team like @NW or @Iowa or something then maybe a let down is enough to get them to a loss. But Rutgers, Nebraska, and @Maryland? They're all terrible. Don't see it.
November 5th, 2017 at 11:30 AM ^
Last weeks PSU-OSU game zapped both teams..sometimes emotions do factor in..NOBODY saw OSU getting Ass whooped yesterday BUT it happened
November 5th, 2017 at 1:27 PM ^
That's true with what happened with Iowa, no one saw a beatdown like that coming. But I also think there is a big gap in difficulty between a game like @Iowa (as we saw last year, as PSU saw in their game @Iowa this year) versus say Rutgers or Nebraska at home. Even if OSU/MSU has a letdown, are they really going to lose to Maryland or Nebraska or Rutgers? I guess Sparty does have Sparty no moments so there's always hope.
November 5th, 2017 at 12:02 PM ^
...and I were at the PSU debacle in Unhappy Valley. We endured the snarkey comments some of the PSU fans were making while we were taking the long walk of shame back to our vehicle. Just knowing that the fans who were smugly informing us that we "had the wrong Harbaugh as our head coach" are now very likely distraught and pissed-off about their vaunted Nittany Lions turn of fortunes gives me great pleasure.
November 5th, 2017 at 11:23 AM ^
Honestly, I'm in the boat that we failed to score 15 points against Sparty while having like 5 turnovers. We made our bed; we sleep in it.
At this point; it's a one game season. Beat OSU and I'm happy. Lose to the (again!) and it was a massive failure of a season.
November 5th, 2017 at 11:52 AM ^
...on!
November 5th, 2017 at 12:31 PM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 1:10 PM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 12:33 PM ^
Also, PSU making it a four-way tie with 2 loss teams could complicate things and force a 4 way coin flip. Michigan is very much still in the conference race.
November 5th, 2017 at 2:44 PM ^
MSU will probably lose to OSU. And MSU will probably beat Maryland at home. But I wouldn't look past Rutgers as a potential trap game for MSU. It's at Rutgers. Rutgers is playing decent football. I can see Rutgers potentially slopping their way to an ugly victory.
I am more concerned that PSU will be the benefactor of MSU chaos.
FUCK I wish we would've beaten MSU!
November 5th, 2017 at 2:39 PM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 2:55 PM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 3:36 PM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 4:29 PM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 5:14 PM ^
the second the clock hit :00 against Sparty if we're honest, that was a killer loss.
November 5th, 2017 at 5:16 PM ^
BEAT. OHIO.
November 5th, 2017 at 6:09 PM ^