Recalibrated expectations
Going into the season, I thought our over-under on regular season losses would be around 1-2.
Looks like Maryland got the real Alabama OC and we got sold a bill of goods.
Now I think the over-under should be around 4 losses (4 out of 5 of Wisco, Maryland, Notre Dame, MSU, OSU).
Where is your over-under now?
September 8th, 2019 at 1:37 PM ^
Jeter played early yesterday...didn’t look like a difference maker
September 8th, 2019 at 2:10 PM ^
I think Jeter played 3 snaps.
Also notice Mason was almost nowhere to be seen. Kemp was an iron man.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:41 PM ^
Jeter and Dwomfour haven’t shown the ability to stay on the field. Injury prone. If folks are pinning their hopes on those two, prepare to be hugely disappointed.
September 8th, 2019 at 1:31 PM ^
I say we loose 3 games...Wisc, Penn St and O$U
and snick by MSU
September 8th, 2019 at 1:32 PM ^
Need to see the play against Wisconsin- a more traditional team where the vanilla will be put on the shelf and something is used to actually win a game with an attack. Glad the guys won, they should celebrate a hard fought win- they scratched and clawed through adversity. Just need some energy and decisiveness on offense- especially from Shea.
If offense lays an egg in Madison, I’ll be in full countdown to new offensive coach mode. I’m super worried about playing Maryland now- that offense is lethal.
September 8th, 2019 at 1:43 PM ^
We were in an overtime dog-fight yesterday. Why the hell do you think the staff was “holding back” yesterday? If they could’ve blown Army out of the water they would have! The OL is not as good as we thought, the QB is probably not as great as we thought. I hope the offense looks better in the coming weeks, but we look like a project on that side of the ball right now. Largely, due to a QB who is refusing to run on option plays when he has the lane to.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^
You answered your own question, i.e. "Why the hell do you think the staff was “holding back” yesterday?" The answer is "Largely, due to a QB who is refusing to run on option plays when he has the lane to." Obviously there was a massive fuckup by the coaches, but Patterson was such a fumble machine, that's probably why. Better, IMO, to turn McCaffrey loose.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:21 PM ^
Read my QB injury & schedule outlook higher up the thread.
I think it comes down to QB injury situation (wanting them both healthy the key ND and Big Ten East games) & also Army being a quality nonconference team that will likely end up being ranked by end of year.
Bottom line is, they need to fix the sloppy play and turnovers, no doubt.
But I think there was a strategic decision at some point against Army that, IF at the end, the staff had to choose between a narrow loss to a nonconference Army that’ll likely be a 10+ win team, versus a potential Pyrrhic victory where we lost either an already injured Shea or McCaffrey for the rest of the season, they were willing to take the loss.
I don’t think this is on the coordinators or on a lack of effort or talent. I think this is entirely related to injuries, strategic play call/decisions based on those injuries, and some new offense sloppy play that will (hopefully) get cleaned up over the next few weeks.
Barring more injuries and if Shea can get healthy, a floor of 9-3 & ceiling of 11-1. If Shea can’t get healthy and/or if we suffer more key injuries, floor of 7-5 & ceiling of 9-3.
September 8th, 2019 at 1:45 PM ^
Maryland's rushing attack does look legit. They were good last year but now they have a competent offensive head coach that knows how to maximize their potential. Still though, I think we win a close one at Maryland. I am most worried about Wisconsin, ND and OSU. Those are three likely losses. Staring down the barrel of a 9-3 season. Hopeful bowl win gets us to Groundhog day of last season.
September 8th, 2019 at 1:32 PM ^
Preseason:
"We've got Ohio at home and an OL! Yum!"
Now:
"We're not Tennessee or Florida State. And Michigan State's Formz suck more than usual."
September 8th, 2019 at 1:33 PM ^
Still at 1.5 Go Blue, get Shea healthy
September 8th, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^
Shea is sloppy with the ball regardless of health.
September 8th, 2019 at 1:33 PM ^
People need to get a grip honestly. Oklahoma went to overtime with the same team last year and went to the playoff. We outgained them significantly, and losing as many fumbles as we did is largely random. There's evidence that recalibrating preseason expectations significantly based on one game early in the season is usually wrong.
Did we both play terribly and call a really weird game on offense yesterday? Yes. Should we be worried by things we saw? Yes. Is it time to write off the season? No.
September 8th, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^
Oklahoma also has recent history that they actually win their conference and win important games and get to playoffs Michigan on the other hand has been a sludge fart since 2004
September 8th, 2019 at 1:46 PM ^
And who else from the Big 12 has had a sniff of the playoffs? Oklahoma winning their conference is honestly not that impressive. Wisconsin, MSU, PSU and obviously OSU have all had at least one season since 2014 better than any from the Big 12 outside of Oklahoma.
September 8th, 2019 at 1:35 PM ^
Honestly expections shouldn't have changed. We have a first time play caller that will have growing pains. It was his second ever game calling, which should have been expected by everyone. It's not like he has been calling plays for a long period and what you get is what you see, like with pep. He has a lot of ability to grow and get better, and Gattis appears to be a person that will self reflect and learn from the shit game he called. So anywhere from 8-4 to CFP's
September 8th, 2019 at 1:47 PM ^
I would bet my life he wasn't calling plays for large chunks of that game. It was taken away or severely limited
September 8th, 2019 at 2:23 PM ^
Sure looked like Harbaugh's shit plays minus a fullback and a bunch of laughably stupid play action.
September 8th, 2019 at 1:35 PM ^
Not thread worthy but we dropped to 10th in the coaches poll for those who care about September rankings. As for the the losses I can honestly see this team going anywhere from 6-6 with a ceiling of 10-2. Maryland, Iowa, MSU, and Penn state look like toss ups. With the new turnovers in space offense we have no shot vs Notre Dame, OSU, or Wisconsin with the game being only 2 weeks away and Shea clearly banged up.
September 8th, 2019 at 1:37 PM ^
It really depends on Patterson. We won’t win 7 games with the level of play he showed yesterday.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:17 PM ^
September 8th, 2019 at 1:37 PM ^
I've changed my expectations. The team has looked better than I expected.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:08 PM ^
BPONE 4 life
September 8th, 2019 at 2:17 PM ^
The BPONE life chose me
September 8th, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^
Depends on the Wisconsin game.
September 8th, 2019 at 1:41 PM ^
After last week I thought that if the team didn't improve they would end 8-4 with losses to Wiscy, PSU, ND and OSU. I thought they would improve, just not sure how much.
Well they have not improved yet, and now MSU and Maryland look better than expected. Even the Iowa game looks like it will be a battle. If the team continues to play like they did against Army I think they finish 6-6 with losses to Wiscy, PSU, ND, OSU, Maryland and either MSU or Iowa.
Not good, Bob.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:32 PM ^
If the team plays every game like they did against Army, then yeah, 6-6 is pretty likely. I would be shocked if you guys played every game like you played the Army game though. Things are going to improve.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:51 PM ^
One of the. most rationale takes I’ve seen on the board.
September 8th, 2019 at 1:43 PM ^
We all agree that the O Line is a total disaster.
So, where do we go from here??
After losses to Wisco, ND, PSU & OSU, that makes Michigan 8-4. Now, are we THAT optimistic vs Iowa??, Maryland (who is vastly improved), Moo U even.
This could very easily turn into 6-6!!!
September 8th, 2019 at 2:29 PM ^
We don’t all agree the OL is a disaster. The game were pretty good. The young tackles had a few protection breakdowns that’s it. Runyan will be back likely for Wisconsin.
The reason they couldn’t move the pike in the second half is because Army was stacking the box & crashing the DE. The reason they did that is because they saw Shea never pulling/keeping the ball on the Zone Read stuff. The reason Shea never pulled/kept the ball was because he is injured & was likely instructed to NOT pull/keep the call so he can avoid aggravating it & get as healthy as possible for Wisconsin & beyond.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:53 PM ^
This clearly was a big part of the running challenges and it would probably fix a great deal
September 8th, 2019 at 3:04 PM ^
It certainly could without the team being terrible. I don’t know why we haven’t changed our scheduling to SEC scheduling. We’ve adopted the SEC championship game and divisions model, which adds even one more tough game to the schedule. Yet we aren’t scheduling total cupcakes for non-conference, and we aren’t padding the OSU game with a cupcake the week before.
Which leads me to the question: why aren’t we padding the OSU game with a non-conference patty cake the week before for an advantage? Is there a requirement that no non-conferences may be scheduled once Big Ten play starts?
I think we should do anything we can.
September 8th, 2019 at 1:45 PM ^
I would put the over/under at 9-3 because our tougher games are at home but I could see 6-6 if we drop every game against a decent team.
September 8th, 2019 at 1:50 PM ^
Idiots and assholes are abundant.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:27 PM ^
Which are you?
September 8th, 2019 at 3:05 PM ^
He said and.
September 8th, 2019 at 3:54 PM ^
It depends on the day I suppose.
September 8th, 2019 at 1:51 PM ^
I want my angry Harbaugh back.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:30 PM ^
Just like Brian Kelly at Notre Dame, schools such as Michigan and Notre Dame that place so much emphasis on university pride, student athlete education and making good adults out of them, dont want a raging menace on the sidelines. Harbaugh came in uesr one throwing clip boards and was maniacal and then it subsided more and more each year. Same with Kelly at ND. I miss maniacal Harbaugh too but that's not what the University of Michigan wants in my opinion. Look at their last several coaches outside of RR and people hated his demeanor and cursing. Look at Notre Dames coaches after Holtz.
September 8th, 2019 at 1:54 PM ^
Just make a bowl. You forgot Iowa and Penn State - we could definitely lose those two as well.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:00 PM ^
If they fumble 3+ times a game, drop passes and get dumb penalties THEN I think you have a point.
If they get it cleaned up, expectations are the same as pre season.
Now, ask yourself if that kind of sloppy play lasts throughout the season in the Harbaugh era.... and there lies your answer.
Don't be obtuse.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:01 PM ^
Yeah I think you about nailed it. Really disappointing about Gattis. Looks like Maryland ended up a big winner of the offseason in the division.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:06 PM ^
I’ve got us at 6-6
Losses - osu psu Nd Wisconsin
toss ups - Iowa Maryland MSU.
Will hopefully win all the toss ups but I’m watching the same team you guys are
September 8th, 2019 at 2:08 PM ^
Dear OP
You can fuck right off
Sincerely,
Darker Blue
September 8th, 2019 at 2:09 PM ^
My O/U for this team is 7.5 wins. At the beginning of the season, I was expecting 10-2, now I'm down to 7-5. OSU, PSU, and Wisco are almost certain losses. We'll probably lose two of MSU, Iowa, ND, and Maryland.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:15 PM ^
Wisconsin is a almost certain loss? With any intelligence you know that’s false. Why do y’all love bitching so much ?
September 8th, 2019 at 2:13 PM ^
Wstersern division game is not less important in any fashion.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^
It’s less important than a game vs OSU or maybe PSU. But other than that, yeah it’s the same.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:19 PM ^
If the coaches stop making mistakes, second-guessing decisions, and play the playmakers regardless of status (Patterson vs McCaffery) - I say we beat these refined expectations you have laid out.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:22 PM ^
Words rarely uttered by good teams: "we have to clean things up!" If saying the same thing in a couple weeks, going to be a LONG 2nd half of the season. Lovin me some "speed in space!" Watching games like yesterday, speed not going to work, going to need lot of weed, Jack, Johnnie...