Recalibrated expectations
Going into the season, I thought our over-under on regular season losses would be around 1-2.
Looks like Maryland got the real Alabama OC and we got sold a bill of goods.
Now I think the over-under should be around 4 losses (4 out of 5 of Wisco, Maryland, Notre Dame, MSU, OSU).
Where is your over-under now?
September 8th, 2019 at 2:24 PM ^
Nothing has changed for me. I think 10-2. The cliche is you see the most improvement between weeks 1 and 2 I think playing Army negated some of the improvement you typically see because they are such a novelty.
I think we come out against Wisconsin and win and then we have another of these thread about recalibrating expectations.
I know this is the nature of internet college sport blogs but lets just take a deep breath, we are 2-0 maybe we should be 1-1 but we won got a little lucky but won none the less.
Get some steel in your spines
September 8th, 2019 at 2:32 PM ^
Army defense is not novel, and UM offense was terrible against them.
September 9th, 2019 at 11:08 AM ^
My point being you focus most of the week planning on how to adjust to what Army does offensively and how to counter that with your own offense.
Then you get 18-22 year old kids who begin to put the ball on the ground and things begin to unravel. Not saying we don't need to be more mentally strong, but every team has a stinker throughout their season we were fortunate enough to get a win while having one.
There is a ton that needs to be fixed or improved upon, but nothing is ever as bad or as good as it seems.
September 8th, 2019 at 3:51 PM ^
There is nothing novel about Army's defense. And yet...
September 8th, 2019 at 2:25 PM ^
Beat Ohio State.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:26 PM ^
I am probably different than most of you as least when it comes to UM football this year. I am going to be completely honest here. I didn't spend a lot of time following the roster composition this year. I guess I have turned somewhat apathetic. Don't get me wrong, I know most of the major players and came onto the board on a regular basis.
I saw the Charbonnet recruiting highlights. I digress. Look, the focus on Gattis is a little misguided. The reason UM tends to continue to struggle is it tends to not be able to find an effective qb who can run an offense. Rudock was pretty good his senior year. DRob was good at what he did but wasn't a great passer.
Gardner wasn't that good. Speight the same. O'Korn. Well you get the point. Now we are onto Patterson who basically is some hybrid qb who can do a little of everything but he isn't a great passer. UM continues to struggle because they can't consistently move the chains because the qb is throwing a bad pass here and there or is late on the read, etc.
It overwhelms certain opponents but a solid defense can stop UM. The good news is Charbonnet is legit. The bad news is unless Patterson can consistently make solid throws quickly then unless the running game is effective, struggles will continue.
As Klatt said on the broadcast, Army is a very good defense against the run. Why? They see it all day, every day in practice. UM continues to look for a very good qb. Good news, the running back has been found.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:27 PM ^
Depends if they hold onto the ball or not. If they do, they would have won the past two games handily and are a double digit win team. If they don't, like they haven't, things will be ugly.
I personally think they clean up the ball security issues but that's just me.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:28 PM ^
These first two weeks have been frustrating to say the least but I am inclined to believe the lack of creativity has been by design. It seems as if the coaching staff wanted to make it through these two games with only 10-15% of the playbook and stuck to that even when it looked like we might lose. Hard to watch yes but it does make sense.
The only way to the CFP is by winning the Big Ten. A loss to Army would look bad now but can be overcome by running through the conference untouched. Makes no sense to panic against Army and show everything we have and put the team at a disadvantage going forward. Injuries are also a key factor. Patterson is clearly banged up already and why take the chance of losing him completely in the non-conference games but having him running consistently . I don’t believe McCafferey is the same level of a passer and we need Shea later. Same goes for Runyan and DJP. This win does nothing for us if we can’t win the Conference.
Obviously the team needs to get its stuff together and a lot of improvement needs to happen but I’m not going to write them off yet. The ultimate goal is the Big Ten title and only through that the playoff becomes a reality. I’m sure the staff is aware of that. Stay positive folks, the team did everything is could to lose a game and still got the win. Haven’t seen these things go our way in the past few years.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:30 PM ^
Ask me again after Wisconsin. If the offense still looks the same and we get run off the field, I’d say the ceiling is 8-4. In that situation, I’d say Losses to ND, PSU, OSU, probably MSU, and Iowa may steal one from us, too.
If we lose a very competitive game, or even win, I’d say 10 wins is still on the table.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:41 PM ^
I expected to be disappointed but was unsure of the details.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:42 PM ^
My prediction before the season was 10-2 with losses to PSU and OSU. I am now leaning towards 8-4 with losses to the two teams mentioned above along with Wisconsin and MSU. Michigan could easily lose to Iowa and Maryland as well.
This is simply a mediocre and undisciplined team. Throw in the fact that they appear to be turnover prone and this season can spiral out of control very quickly. Harbaugh needs to step it up. Tired of Michigan being a laughingstock in CFB.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:43 PM ^
If you only post after a close and frustrating game, you probably shouldn't post. It's amazing how uplifting and insightful posts will actually get a lot of negs the day after a rough game, because the crowd mentality is in full force.
Its always the most vocal people that give Michigan fans a bad name. Most of us are really rooting for the team and believe they will do very well this year.
I know a few fair weather Michigan fans. None of them actually went to Michigan. If the shoe fits, wear it.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:49 PM ^
We are likely what we always are: 10-3 or 9-4. Losses @ Wisconsin, @ Penn State, and vs OSU; maybe a loss to Notre Dame or bowl game.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:51 PM ^
Same we going 15-0. Screw you wusses
September 8th, 2019 at 2:53 PM ^
I expected 4-5 losses before the season started so this is pretty much what I expected.
September 8th, 2019 at 2:58 PM ^
This feels just like the morning after the ND game last year. But we won this one and lost that one.
I have to agree that we seem to be intentionally holding things back but I think you throw that out the window when the game is on the line.
September 8th, 2019 at 3:06 PM ^
Hard to do so if you have been game planning one thing all week. An in game shift can be pretty hard to do.
September 8th, 2019 at 3:05 PM ^
We have been told by every person that knows football and Michigan that the Army game would be a miserable slog. The Army game was actually a miserable slog. Now we have to recalibrate? Seems like most of the preseason talk was spot on. Relax, and hope we get some healthy people back. New OC or not, we all know at this point that Harbaugh does not like to show things pre Big Ten, it’s his version of Auto Bench.
Let’s wait and see what the team brings in Madison.
September 8th, 2019 at 3:06 PM ^
8-4...losses to Wisc,,ND, Penn St, and the usual OSU...simply put this team is nowhere near Championship caliber...even close,,,very disappointing...Harbaugh in 5 years hasnt really done all that much...facts are what they are
September 8th, 2019 at 3:11 PM ^
I have not changed expectations. Anything else besides a B10 championship is a disappointment.
September 8th, 2019 at 3:18 PM ^
Harbaugh himself said we should be the favorite to win the conference did he not? If this offense is just as bad throughout the whole season he needs to be encouraged to go elsewhere.
September 8th, 2019 at 3:34 PM ^
perhaps you should go somewhere else.
September 8th, 2019 at 3:20 PM ^
We need to switch to DCaf.
September 8th, 2019 at 3:21 PM ^
You're hilarious. Maybe go find a quiet corner to weep.
September 8th, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^
The schedule is brutal, if you look at games where I'd just say 'yeah we should definitely win that if we're not totally falling apart' then there's 2 behind us and with Rutgers, Illinois and Indiana three ahead of us. That'd be 5 wins. And someone could make an argument that @Indiana is far from a given. At the same time @Maryland has morphed from a 'certain win' to 'probably win but gotta watch it'. My guess is 3-1 or 4-0 out of these games
Then there's the Iowa and MSU home games, games vs teams with some quality, but team we nevertheless can out-talent and would typically fancy ourselves favorites against in Ann Arbor. My guess is we win them both or split them i.e. 2-0 or 1-1.
Then there's the road games vs good teams that often give us trouble at their place but before the season were viewed as a tad below their usual standards, Wisconsin and PSU. Now we have to assume they're at least as good as us and it's on the road which reduces win chances considerably. My guess is we split them i.e. 1-1
Finally, the two home games vs teams seen as potential playoff teams, teams with equal or superior talent. Before the season, there was an argument we could win both, but now a ceiling of 1 win seems fair given that home advantage does add win probability for Michigan. My guess is we go 0-2 or 1-1 in these.
So my expectation is somewhere between 8-4 and 10-2.
September 8th, 2019 at 3:24 PM ^
Shea was pretty banged up yesterday. I have watched the game a second time and noticed he refused to raise his right arm unless it was during a play. He did everything exclusively with his left like taking his mouthpiece in and out and motioning to players before the snap.
Now why Harbaugh didn’t play Dylan more, well my theory is he doesn’t want a qb controversy. He must think that Shea gives them the best long term chance and doesn’t want any visible evidence to the contrary while Shea is hurt. Shea is the better player for this team for this year.
September 8th, 2019 at 5:40 PM ^
Now why Harbaugh didn’t play Dylan more ...[?]
Why indeed? I think the idea that Harbaugh doesn't want a "QB Controversy" is plausible. However, after being almost 100% certain we'd see Dylan after the half yesterday, I came to the conclusion that maybe Dylan isn't 100% either. Again, maybe. Shea never looked right, nor did the offensive play calling.
September 8th, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^
My O/U has been 8.5 wins since July. But I didn’t foresee QB regression.
September 8th, 2019 at 6:54 PM ^
10-2.
Clean up the fumbles and both games so far are blowouts.
September 8th, 2019 at 8:00 PM ^
Who cares....win the game in front of you....2-0 and hopefully getting healthier.
September 8th, 2019 at 8:14 PM ^
If the play and co star ching remains the same I agree with the OP. If that plays out, Brown should retire and JH gets a very warm, if not hot seat
September 8th, 2019 at 8:44 PM ^
More overreactions. Sweet.
September 8th, 2019 at 9:07 PM ^
If the play calling stays the same and we can’t get consistent quarterback play 8-4. Losses to Wiscy, ND, PSU and OSO.....and I hate to say it Maryland. So maybe 7-5 if nothing changes.
September 9th, 2019 at 11:26 AM ^
The Wisconsin game will be huge. If UM wins and looks good the first 2 games will not matter in the least. I think after that game we will know much much more about Michigan. A loss ? and holy hell the shit storm on Harbaugh will be real.