Reasons You Expect Michigan to Win on Saturday

The picture in the OP says it all.  They're pussies. 

Yes they have probably the most prolific offense in college football.  And they're roster is full of four and five star athletes.  This weekend I kept reading/hearing about how awesome their 3rd string RB is.  

They knew it last year, which is why the narrative coming out of Columbus during the offseason was that they were going to work on toughness this year.  

I do admit they are tougher than they were last year.  I doubt you see someone bowl over an OL like we did last year.  

But they are still pussies. 

they know it.  They are so aware of it, they are afraid of the weather forecast in their own hometown.  

These are essentially the same squads as last year.

Result should be the same barring injures and turnovers.

Hope. Hope is all I have.
Yes, Red, I remember what you said about that. 

We’re good enough

we’re smart enough

and doggone it…. People like us!

First off, to correct the record Michigan completed 4 passes in the 2nd half of last year's game and had another earn a DPI because Wilson had beaten the OSU corner badly.  So in fact UM was super-efficient throwing the ball in that second half (their average per attempt was 19.3 ypa).  If Michigan can get those types of chunk plays against OSU again that would be great.

But realistically Michigan wins if they can keep pressure on Stroud and not give up a ton on the ground.  OSU is going to get their points but if you can keep them to 25-30 that's a lot better than35-40.  And they need a bit of luck; last year OSU actually got some insane catches to keep drives alive but we don't remember all of them because OSU still lost by double digits.  But if OSU's struggles throwing the ball continue and their receivers struggle a bit that would be good.

Beyond that, Michigan can to consistently move the ball on the ground.  Corum and Edwards need to play well and guys like Bell and Schoonmaker/Loveland need to pick up downfield blockers well.  

I honestly don't expect for UM to win this game; they're a little banged up and OSU has some top-tier talent at spots.  But I do feel like it'll be competitive and then if it's close in the 4th quarter anything can happen.

Win the “Game”

Because Ohio State is soft this year, just like last year.  They will always be soft under Ryan Day.  We will dominate both lines and grind them down.  The game will be lower scoring than most think.  While their passing attack is awesome and they will get their shots, we will keep them out of the end zone for the most part.  Our offense will look revolutionized since the playbook will be wide open. And did I mention that OSU is soft?  They are.

It all comes down to health. Our top 3 offensive weapons were out vs. Illinois, with Corum, Schoonmaker and Edwards on the bench. If Corum and Schoonmaker are back, the odds even out. If Edwards plays, the odds tip in our favor. We saw last year what a good OL can do to a Charmin DL, but you need good RBs to exploit it.

On defense, Morris has to play at full strength. We saw what a hard-hitting DL does to the Charmin-soft OSU OL and QB last year. From what I've seen of them this season, not much has changed. Well, maybe something has changed. Stroud is even more averse to contact and flinches sooner and harder when he's pressured.

I expect Corum to solidify the Heisman vote in Columbus.

They could have won there in 2016.  Still went to 2OTs after making gut twisting turnovers. They played well enough to win the game if it wasnt for those. JT being short as another blow to the gut but again they could have avoided that.

2018 they were loaded on both sides of the ball. With the right DC they do not get blown out like that.  The offense had no chance to keep up.

This year we've all been saying they have to be physically and mentally tough to get it done. The crowd will be nuts so they have to weather that storm. Limit mistakes, no turnovers, and win the line of scrimmage on both sides which i think they can do. Putting that crowd to sleep with long drives and brutal running would be great.

It would be great if Michigan could be a real threat passing because the osu defense is shaky.  I'll be happy if they run the hell out of the ball and wear that defense down. I expect them to win with another dominant Oline performance.

If Michigan is healthy and returns players in key areas, they can get this game to just about darn near a coin flip. If its not, particularly with Corum and Edwards, then circumstances are going to change drastically, and not for the better. 

But the OL needs to be healthy, Corum and Edwards need to be healthy or probably at least 90%, Schoon needs to get back on the field as he's far and away the most reliable pass-catcher and will be a great safety valve for JJ to have, and we need Morris back in the worst way. 

If all of these guys are back, then here are reasons why I think they can win. Not reasons that I expect them to win, but reasons why they can:

1) Michigan, when at full strength, has shown it can run the ball on anyone. And run it really stinking well. Georgia would probably be the only team that I'd say Michigan can't just line up across from and run on with consistent success. If Michigan can run the ball, that means it can control the line of scrimmage, which means it can control the clock and keep Stroud and Harrison off the field for extended periods of time. 

2) The defense is built specifically to combat this type of offense. The lack of a dominant 1:1 pass rush that we had last year is a concern for sure, but I do think this defense is better overall despite having less star power. I'll say right now that we should all expect that Michigan will give up the most amount of points that its going to give up all year up to this point. They're going to give up yards. Its just going to happen. Those receivers are just too good, and there are going to be several "scream into your couch pillow moments" as Harrison makes a third and long circus catch that no one else in the country but him can make. But the defense is built to make OSU execute up and down the field. They're built to not routinely give up the big play that OSU feasts on. If they can force OSU to do what they did last year, make them routinely execute up and down the field for large chunks of time, eat up clock, and maybe settle for some field goals, they'll have done their part. 

3) The mental/psychological hurdle has been cleared, which is perhaps the most important reason of all. These guys know they can beat OSU because they did it last year, and just having that confidence of knowing they've done this before and can do it again is crucial in the mental aspect of the game.

4) I think most of the pressure is on OSU right now. A lot of people expect it to be a competitive game but few expect Michigan to win. Sure, there is a lot of pressure on Michigan to win, but even moreso on OSU. Last year was highly uncharted territory for OSU, who's fans have been conditioned to feel entitled to a win in this rivalry every year. The MSM has been conditioned to expect OSU to win every year because, well, that's just what's been happening.

If Michigan beats OSU, in Columbus, in front of OSU's fans, and makes Day lose two years in a row, there will be immediate calls for his head. He won't get fired, but much of his staff will. And make no mistake, he would enter 2023 on the hot seat. Next year would very much be a "Beat Michigan or start clearing out your office" kind of year for him. 

ryan day = john cooper

stroud isn't great unless he is unpressured

for the second season in the history of Michigan football, we've been practicing and game planning for this game all season long, not just all week long (like they have for the past 30 years).

GO BLUE!

Isn't it Knowles first year this year?

The Moon forms a trine to Jupiter, and we can readily drum up support from others and motivation from within to accomplish our goals. We’re positive and ready to take on a challenge. This New Moon can motivate us to kick Bucknuts ass! Go Blue

I'm guardedly optimistic - and, as others have pointed out, my view isn't to "expect" Michigan to win on Saturday - but, I do like our chances.

Great points by many commenters - and, mine aren't too different.

1. Knowles 4-2-5 defensive scheme will be tested against the strongest offense the Bucks have faced this year.  If Michigan establishes a ground game - with opportunistic, possession style passing - it's a formula for success.

2. Pressure Stroud.  Though the Bucks OL may be stronger than last year, it doesn't seem like a Death Star.  Michigan's secondary needs to cover for four seconds - and, hopefully, the D can apply pressure with four (instead of five or six).

3. It seems like the Buckeyes D hasn't been as effective when they understood a specific game plan was coming their way.  That was shown in both the ND and Northwestern games.  The health of those two opponents or weather conditions reflected a "run heavy" game plan - and, the Buckeyes D wasn't overly effective slowing them down.

4. Another take on the pressure - it's ALL on the Buckeyes.  I hope the line goes to 12 or more.  The Bucks are a Death Star - Michigan has no chance.  For the media - please, please continue that mantra.

5. The pressure and test Michigan faced on Saturday against Illinois was very good for the team.  They were behind, they needed to "do things" under pressure - and, they executed well, not perfectly, but well enough.

6. The wild card is the officiating.  I have NO confidence in B1G officials - and, it would not surprise me if the Michigan secondary is flagged for touch fouls, while the Bucks secondary tackles receivers while they are in route without the bat of an eye, or a flag.

I like our chances - Go Blue!

I don't expect Michigan to win.

1. It's in Columbus—beating excellent teams on the road is hard. It's especially hard in the Shoe.

2. The Buckeyes will get their customary home cooking from the refs.

3. We're not at full health with some critically important players.

4. OSU isn't as physically "weak" as Michigan fans assume. We won't be able to bully them like we did last year.

5. OSU will sell out against the run, daring us to beat them with our passing game. We have abundant evidence that we won't be able to.

6. Our coaching staff will not change things up to counter an OSU defense that is focused on stopping our running game. We'll be burning downs running on first and second, with relatively little play action or RPOs.

7. We will generate much less meaningful pass rush than we did last year.

8. Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to have a big game.

We've a far better defense than the ones that have held the buckeyes to 21 points this season, and we've a far better offense than the ones that have scored 30+ on them as well.

They don’t seem as explosive as past versions. In a battle of ten play drives, I think we have a huge advantage.

In this rivalry game, many of the stats are meaningless. A Corum and Edwards combo will need to least 200 yds on the ground. JJ will need to add up to 50 yds. The passing game will require at least 200 yds. If OSU scores, Michigan must answer on their next possession. TD for TD not TD with FG.

The defense much pressure the hell out of Stroud. We'll need a few key pass breakups as well. Stop any type of run game they have.

Out muscle them like we did last year. Own the TOP clock. It's all a big ask but Michigan is capable.

If we pressure Stroud early and often then I think we make it a battle of the run games and the lines … which I think we win easily… that is all 

Because I firmly believe our running backs and O-line hold the edge against their rushing defense, and that we will win the time of possession and rushing yards game. They have a high powered sports car of an offense, but that can only do so much good when it's not on the field.

 The forecast in Columbus is 50% rain on Saturday.

I think some reasons to believe are

1. OSU seems to be getting soft under Day
2. Not clear that OSU's defense is much improved from last season and Michigan's run offense is as good or better
3. OSU's offense has seemed less explosive this year. They've had real sluggish starts like vs. Northwestern and Maryland

Now I could probably think of more reasons to be pessimistic, but there's a window for Michigan if they can slow up OSU's offense

Because Harbaugh just found out that Braylon, Avant and Breaston all have a year of eligibility left. Which is nice. 

Turnovers.  

…because Ryan Day was born on third base.

osu is missing their RB1,RB2,and possibly RB3,WR1 and now their starting RG, Mathew Jones. In the beginning of fall camp Miyan Williams was RB3 behind Henderson&Pryor. Dallan Heyden True Freshman was RB5 when camp started. Pretty even trade for one player Corum, don’t you think?

We need “ Glass “  Edwards and corum to even have a shot 

I think there is a lot of pressure on OSU to win this game. That pressure to win may end up costing them turnovers which could help Michigan win. 

In this game more than any other, they have to take care of the football. No close special teams calls, no picks, no fumbles. OSU has feasted on points off of turnovers and that's often been the thing that causes an Ohio State avalanche to erupt. If they can give the ball back to OSU on their own terms, Michigan can win the game. 

OSU has gotten big points off of turnovers against PSU and Maryland last week. If Sean Clifford doesn't have 4 turnovers by himself, PSU may have been able to pull it off. Maryland doesn't have the punt block and a fumble late, that's headed to OT. Ohio State is going to have to score to keep its defense off of the field. This game is going to be all about game state not quite match ups of individual players. 

We have better coaches.

We win because our lads can do on offense and defense everything they did last year to OSU, and OSU cannot make all the ridiculous highlight reel completions that were the only reason they weren't blown out by five TDs last year.

Going back to 2001 (I didn't go look beyond that) the team with the most rushing yards always wins. I have complete confidence Michigan will out gain Ohio State on the ground

Jim Harbaugh is leagues better at coaching than Ryan Day. This is what gives me confidence. If Urban Meyer were still coaching, I would not feel good at all because we probably would not have won last year if Urban Meyer was still coaching. Ryan Day came in as arrogant as any coach I have ever seen because he just assumed everything would be like it was but it took many years of Tressel and Meyer building the crazy machine OSU has become. If Michigan can pull out a win on Saturday, the OSU fan base will lose their minds because Michigan is going to be even better next year. Go Blue!

1) UM offense is tough to replicate in practice - almost impossible with the variety of blocking and play action combinations. If the OCs break out great constraint and self-scout plays, the defense never gets comfortable.

2) UM seems comfortable with tight games and grinding out tough wins If it’s close late in Q3, UM will play looser and more aggressively than OSU.

3) The pressure is squarely on OSU, Stroud and Day to not fail. 

1. Because it's Michigan and I expect them to win every game, no matter who they play.

2. Because the last time these two teams met 11-0, OSU won. It's our turn.

3. Because this is a team of destiny. They will win and end up 15-0. I deserve one more in my lifetime. And this will be the start of a great run.

4. Because we win in the trenches. OSU is not the unbeatable juggernaut we have come to fear until last year.

5. Because our secondary and pass rush will do just enough to offset the one part of OSU's game that I fear. And our running game will minimize the chances for OSU's offense.