OT - NFL Conference Finals - teams you think will win? Preferences? Keys to the games?
The NFL Conference Championships will be held this weekend. This is an early take for a discussion of the two games.
NFC: San Francisco at Philadelphia - kicks off at 3:00 pm EDT on Fox. Early line - Phily by 2.5 points.
AFC: Cincinnati at Kansas City - kicks off at 6:30 pm EDT on CBS. Early line - KC by 1.0 point.
Both games have interest - and, could probably go either way. I don't have a horse in the race, but will be interested in the AFC Championship a bit more. I'm curious about 1) how the Bengals OL will play, 2) how effective Henne for whatever snaps he takes, and 3) Purdy in place of Garoppolo.
What are you looking forward to seeing? Any thoughts, or early predictions? Any specific "keys to the game"?
January 23rd, 2023 at 10:45 AM ^
Don't matter. Winner gets shredded by Henne in SB. BOOK IT!
January 23rd, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
I'd say Philly vs Cincy but rooting for 49ers with Purdy.
Hot Take - Lions would've beat all NFC playoff teams who have lost so far. Fight me...
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^
With a possible exception of the Cowboys- I think that's not that hot of a take. From a DVOA perspective the Lions are definitely in the second tier of NFC teams (I mean this as a positive take) and if you shortened it to the second half of the season, would have to be near the top.
January 23rd, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^
Chiefs and Eagles - going with the home team.
I don't think Henne will play - they will go with Mohohes and Henne will share his experience on how to play with a high ankle sprain.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^
I don't know, man. I doubt Mahomes has put pressure on his ankle since Saturday. That was pure adrenaline. He might be walking by Thursday. I have no doubt he is going to try to play but I am 70-80% sure Henne will play a significant role in that game.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
I think you spelled toridol wrong 😑
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
Toradol* 😉
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^
pretty sure you did too
January 23rd, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^
I want:
1. Bengals (Joey B is cool and they've never won a SB)
2. Eagles (It'd be fun if Hurts won a SB before Mac/Tua/etc.)
3. Niners (Purdy is cool. They have a case that they're the best all around team)
4. Chiefs (The Patrick Mahomes State Farm commercials are so fucking annoying. Fuck that shit. Also they've won v recently)
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:42 AM ^
The get too personal bit like “I like the smell of my beard” or “ how my cats piss tastes” is gross and makes me question who gives the ok on these ads.
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
Also, I don't get it. Like I've never though to myself "I need to Geico because the cavemen were funny" or "Chris Paul and Mahomes are cool, I'll go with State Farm." What's the ROI on paying guys like Rodgers, Mahomes, etc. millions presumably? I'm going with best coverage, fewest hassles if I have a claim, best price.
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^
I'd be very interested to see the ROI on adverts. Never understood that. One thing you know is that insurance companies have a ton of extra cash to burn on athletes doing commercials, which means they are charging too damn much... Same with Subway. Awful, low quality food, but hey, you've got Steph Curry, Tony Romo, Simone Biles, and a whole lot more hawking your "food".
The commercial where Andy Reid draws mustaches on the players while they are sleeping is pretty funny though.
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
The only insurance company commercials that are any good are Limu Emu and Doug.
January 23rd, 2023 at 1:09 PM ^
While I hear you on the ROI… the fact that they make enough of an impression on you that you are having an internet dialogue about them probably says something about their effectiveness.
January 23rd, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^
I like your rationale. My similar rooting interests:
1) Niners - Brock Purdy is a great story. Great D. Offense is a concern after not scoring TDs in the redzone. Needs to close in the redzone to win a SB.
2) Cincinnati - Joe B is a great story and seems like a good kid. Cinci needs a SB W. The only negative is they are in Ohio.
3) Philly - I think they are overrated. I don’t live there anymore. What’s to like.
4) KC - Too many weapons to like them. It would be like rooting for a loaded Cowboy team back in the 90s. Plus I don’t like Andy Reid from when he was in Philly. His kids are/were all a dysfunctional mess. Apples and trees I think is the story.
Unfortunately we are probably looking at a 4) vs 3) SB with 4) winning
January 23rd, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^
I'm rooting Niners - Bengals but am not sure the Niners can score enough points next week. Hurts should be even healthier and they seem like a different team with him running the show. Looking forward to both games.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
Over the past 8 games the Niners are averaging over 32 ppg. The Eagles D is good, but SF has plenty of offensive weapons to put points on the board. Like you said, Sunday should be a good day to be on the couch!
Selfishly, I'm pulling for a SF vs. CIN due to a futures bet.
January 23rd, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
I think Mahome's ankle throws everything into chaos in the AFC. All outcomes are now possible. Mahomes plays, and is limited but good (relatively even game), Mahomes plays and is terrible (Cincy blowout), Henne plays and is good (relatively even, but with Cincy edge), Henne plays and is bad (Cincy blowout).
in the NFC, Brock Purdy a rookie QB in an away playoff environment, Even with the 9er's D, I think the Eagles pull it out.
January 23rd, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^
I want to see Mr Irrelevant win the Super Bowl in his first season. Probably not going to happen but enjoy the style in which the 49ers play the game.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:03 AM ^
I think Cinci & Philly will win. I want Cinci & SF to win.
And as much as I really want to hate Joe Burrow being a M grad and Browns season ticket holder I really cant. The dude is cool as shit, doesnt talk much but backs up whatever he does say on the field.
Dude is exactly the QB I thought we were getting with Baker.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:11 AM ^
Niners vs Bengals
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
Who Dey all the way. That’s my rhyme and that is all.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:14 AM ^
Gimme Bengals over a Henne led Chiefs. Life long and die hard Bengals fan, the past two years (coupled with Michigan) have been a dream. I know he's from Ohio and went to OSU, but damn it Joe Burrow is him. He's the scariest and coolest QB in the NFL with weapons all around.
Philly has an edge due to home field, both games should be tight contests. Get your popcorn!
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
Joe Burrow is 1000x cooler than Mahomes.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
I'm over-the-top excited for Bengals' fans ---- I lived there for 9 years and witnessed all those consecutive playoff losses. As you said, it's been a dream, and I don't think it's going to strike Midnight next weekend. Burrow is incredible, as you said a combo of scary and cool.
Who Dey!
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:14 AM ^
I like Philly. I'm also rooting for them because, Brandon Graham is an objectively better person than Nick Bosa. It's hard to bet against the Niners who've been red-hot, but even though Brock Purdy handles pressure situations better than Dak Prescott, Philly seems like the more complete team.
Hard to get a read on the AFC. I respect Mahomes too much to bet against him (he's probably the most fun NFL player I've ever watched not named Barry Sanders), but the Bengals seem to have their number and Mahomes probably isn't 100%. Plus, I was super impressed by the Bengals dominating a good Bills team in their house. They were just dominating their favored opponent by running at will in a snowstorm - have you ever seen anything like THAT before??
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^
Now that the Cowboys are out I think I would be fine with any outcome. But I would prefer Chiefs, San Fran, Bengals, then Eagles in that order. I just hope the games are more exciting than what we got this weekend
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^
fly eagles fly
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
Seems highly likely to me that Philly comes out of the NFC. SF looked decent yesterday, but their lack of offense is a problem
For Cinci, did yesterday's game say more about Cinci or Buffalo? I say a little of both but I like them to come out of the AFC
Philly-Cinci would be a great super bowl
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
I think Philly vs Cincy would be an awesome Super Bowl, but if Henne is the guy going forward, well, I have to root for him.
It does feel like all four remaining teams are pretty even, so it should be entertaining Sunday regardless.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:28 AM ^
I think we will avoid a rematch of Super Bowl XXIII (played at the Silverdome) and end up with Bengals - Eagles. I would root a little more for the Bengals because they've never won a SB, and Dax Hill and Chris Evans play for them. But I would also be fine if the Eagles won it because it would give Brandon Graham his second ring.
EDIT - and then maybe the other franchise near and dear to many of our hearts, that has also never won a SB, will follow the Bengals next season.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
EDIT - and then maybe the other franchise near and dear to many of our hearts, that has also never won a SB, will follow the Bengals next season.
There are four NFL franchises that have never played in, much less won, a Super Bowl: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions and the Cleveland Browns.
I grew up in Pontiac and my parents had season tickets to the Lions so I went to almost every game from 1967 through 1981. I moved to Cleveland in the late 80's and became a Browns season ticket holder in 2009 so I've had the pleasure of watching and financially supporting 50% of the teams that have never made the Super Bowl for 28 fucking years.
Top that.
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
I find it difficult to feel sorry for the Jacksonville Jaguars. They've only been in existence 27 years. We can talk after they hit the 50 year mark without even so much as a SB appearance.
And no, I cannot possibly top that. I liked what I saw from the Lions this season. They just need to find consistency. If they play all 17 games next season like they played the final 10 games of this season then they will certainly make the playoffs. Winning a SB is another story but maybe?
January 23rd, 2023 at 1:46 PM ^
Detroit is the only franchise to have been in existence for the entire SB era and never made it.
Cleveland is almost as bad; being honest, not having a franchise being in existence for the *entire* era because a greedy owner picked up and left the city, and having that franchise that left win SBs while your expansion franchise doesn't is pretty bad. Houston has had two franchises for *most* of the era and also never made it. Jacksonville is, obviously, on a different plane.
Cleveland got closer to getting there than Detroit, but Elway and Byner. Detroit's one conference final appearance was a good season but Washington beating them was always going to happen.
January 23rd, 2023 at 6:58 PM ^
Detroit and Cleveland have had plenty of football world championships. It just wasnt the Superbowl yet. They won a combined 6 NFL Championships in the 50s before there was an AFL and a Superbowl. Not that that is going to make you feel any better. But the 50s must have been a fun time to be a fan in Toledo (because since both states claim Toledo then you can be a fan of both teams)
Only Houston hasn’t played in or won any championships of any kind since coming into existence, first time in 1960. Not that I care about Houston.
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
XVI was the one at the Silverdome! Still remember people complaining about the horror of cold weather
January 23rd, 2023 at 2:48 PM ^
You're correct, my bad. I referenced the SB in 1989 which was in Miami, not in Detroit.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:47 AM ^
I am hoping Cincinnati v. San Fran.
I like watching those teams.
However, I believe that a Michigan alum is guaranteed to win a Super Bowl ring this year, so that makes everything better.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
Bengals vs 49ers. Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy has a longer list than Tom Brady of QBs who were drafted before him. He's gotta have a huge chip on his shoulder wanting to prove his doubters wrong. I think Cinci is the next NFL juggernaut. Even though they're in Ohio, the butt hole of America, they're really more of a Kentucky part of Ohio, and Kentucky is cool, so I can forgive them the Ohio ZIP code.
January 23rd, 2023 at 1:03 PM ^
Went to a Tigers/Reds game in Cincy a few years back. We were seated behind home plate. I was wearing my Tigers/UM hat. Some guy said that he loved that I was wearing that hat in Ohio.
I replied that it's cool, since this is pretty much Kentucky.
A drunk lady seated in front of me turned around and yelled in my face "THIS AIN'T NO KENTUCKY".
I pointed out over the outfield seats and said "But that is"
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^
AFC: I think Cincy wins because of Burrow and a hobbled Mahomes. I Prefer KC to win because I don't like Ohio teams. Key to game: Mahomes health and Cincy OL.
NFC: I think Philly wins because Hurts and their DL. I prefer Philly to win, never liked SF. Key to the game: Philly DL getting to Purdy.
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
Cincy surprised me against the Bills; I thought they got lucky beating Baltimore with a backup and figured the Bills would work them over but they handled a tough environment well. If Mahomes is limited in that game then the Bengals should make it back to the SB. Burrow is just that good as a QB and the postseason seems a bit charmed for them.
In the NFC the Eagles are the best team and I think Purdy struggling a bit against Dallas portends further issues going forward against an even better defense. I really do like SF's run game, though, so they may be able to keep it a low-scoring game with a small number of possessions.
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
This is weird. I don't hate any of these teams and I don't have a team that is really a "pulling for" type.
Since the Chiefs have won recently I'm interested in seeing somebody else win, but I love the way they play; I guess the Eagles are also in the sort of recent camp, but it's a completely different team and I really like the idea of a team that plays the way they do succeeding. I'm not huge on the Niners, but, again, some of the stuff they do is really compelling, and doing it with Purdy is a great story. And Cincy is a long-suffering franchise with a very likeable QB (basically concur with Mgrowold's sentiment, and when you have a Browns/Michigan fan liking Burrow, that says a lot).
Any of the four could legitimately win and none are clear favorites, to me, and that is fascinating.
Best guess right now is Cincy-Philly advance, based on how they've looked. Then I have no idea winning; guess I'd lean Cincy because of Burrow.
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:11 PM ^
I prefer Philly and Brandon Graham vs Chiefs and Chad Henne but I think it'll be Philly vs Cincy in SB.
Now that Dallas and the Jags are out, I don't hate any of the conference finalists so I don't really have a strong rooting interest.
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
Pulling for my Chiefs, but it's going to be tough if Mahomes has severely limited mobility. Cincy has won 3 straight against us and are the stronger team talent wise on both sides of the ball. Should be a good game at the BBQ house.
Niners couldnt get their running game going against Dallas, so I give the nod to Philly - since they have the better QB.
Cincy needs to strike while Burrow is on his rookie deal. Gonna lose alot of talent around him after he signs the big money. That's what happened in KC. Same will be true for Jacksonville in a couple years.
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^
I called Cinci-9ers so I'll stick with them. Burrow has that it factor, where he won't let his team lose. Winner at Arrowhead will win it all.
January 23rd, 2023 at 7:17 PM ^
Henne for the win
January 23rd, 2023 at 1:01 PM ^
Rooting for the Bengals and the Eagles, mostly because I’m a big fan of Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow. Won’t have a rooting interest in the Super Bowl either way, but I’d rather not see the Chiefs back in it.
January 23rd, 2023 at 5:17 PM ^
I like the Eagles over the 49ers and the Bengals over the Chiefs. The Eagles are just solid on both sides of the ball and will dominate in the trenches.
There is no real qb experience edge in this game, but the Eagles ability to score quickly or control the ball in a time of possession contest with home field advantage and a defense with veterans everywhere and a dynamic Dline which puts massive pressure on the offense. I like the Eagles by at least 10 points.
Mahomes health is the key to whether the Chiefs can compete with Cincinnati on an equal level. The Bengals are my favorite to win by a TD or more in another road victory after handling the Bills in snowy adverse conditions.
January 23rd, 2023 at 7:33 PM ^
SF fan so they are my first choice but I can honestly say I'm pretty okay with any of the teams winning (growing up around Browns/Lions fans offers perspective).
It's exciting to finally have a solid group of young QB's.