OT: The case for Lions being our best Detroit franchise down the road
This may have been unthinkable in the first decade in the 2000's for this state, but I'll give it a go. In light of the Lions beating the first-in-the-NFC-North-by-a-mile Vikings, I've decided to look at reasons why going forward there are built in advantages to our Honolulu Blue football team being the best franchise in Detroit
1. Belief and Momentum - Winning is contagious at times for a culture. Once the ball *finally* gets rolling like we're starting to see with them it gets either easier to move or harder to stop. I am not seeing this yet with the Red Wings in this era yet, and I'm definitely not seeing it at all with the hapless Pistons as of now
2. Condensed Schedule - Compared to NBA, NHL and especially MLB, the NFL doesn't have quite the long slog of games to play the others do. Even just a random 6-game winning streak can all but guarantee your playoff spot. I can trust a Detroit franchise to get hot for a few weeks or so. What I cannot trust them to do is be an utterly dominant dynasty for months upon months for a season. It's just too long a grind for the Pistons and Tigers to deteriorate down the stretch
3. Ease of Achieving Talent Parity - With size of their rosters compared to hockey and basketball, football gives a bit of a margin for error with roster composition of elite talent. If you're top 5 plus at least 3 bench guys in basketball aren't up to par with NBA standards of competition, you're in big trouble night in and night out. Most NFL teams across the league have at least one or two holes on their roster
So to the Detroit sports fans in this blog, is this in your view an accurate analysis of our Motor City professional teams? I'd appreciate your input on this!
December 11th, 2022 at 5:36 PM ^
"down the road"?
This season or longterm?
If y'mean this season, yeah, it NOW seems as if the Lions have the brightest future.
It would be nice to break the sense that Detroit teams are now automatically bad.
December 11th, 2022 at 7:41 PM ^
To give you a sense of how bad Detroit sports is right now, the OP was about a 6-7 team, lol.
December 11th, 2022 at 7:58 PM ^
We're average! We're average! Yay!
December 11th, 2022 at 9:05 PM ^
We have different understanding of what average means…
December 11th, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^
Yes - this is a good and true OT post.
December 11th, 2022 at 5:40 PM ^
Was that Williams first pro touchdown? Happy the guy bounced back so well from his injury. The lions are probably the best team at making you think they're getting the #1 draft pick, then going on a winning streak
December 11th, 2022 at 5:44 PM ^
It was his first catch AND touchdown so hopefully that’s a sign of things to come.
December 11th, 2022 at 8:07 PM ^
Looked like the OSU defense out there, pretty bad busted coverage.
Not sure Williams had to do much to get it, didn't even have to run fast. TD still a TD though, good start
He also gets some credit for subconsciously dropping a pass that woulda been a loss - saving a few yards.
December 11th, 2022 at 5:40 PM ^
I'm convinced Lions fans spend a significant amount of their free time repeatedly punching themselves in the balls.
NTTAWWT.
December 11th, 2022 at 6:33 PM ^
I think that's more of a Browns fan thing. MGrowOld is the perfect example.
December 11th, 2022 at 8:14 PM ^
With a hammer, baby!
December 11th, 2022 at 8:37 PM ^
Well it is Nutcracker season…
December 11th, 2022 at 5:43 PM ^
I still think the Red Wings have the brightest future ahead of them, but the Lions aren't that far beind tbh. I wouldn't be surprised if they're the favorites to win the North next season
December 11th, 2022 at 5:53 PM ^
Trust in the Yzerplan
In StevieY I Trust
December 11th, 2022 at 5:59 PM ^
user name 100% checking out
December 11th, 2022 at 10:09 PM ^
Red Wings, Tigers, and Pistons have had plenty of championship seasons to enjoy. We can always count on those teams for future championships.
Not the Lions. At least not since the 50s when they were the best team. They won 3 championships in the 50s. Then William Clay Ford bought them in 1963. Since 1963 the Lions have made the playoffs 11 times and they won 1 playoff game. One! In 60 years!
William Clay Ford once told someone at a party “you don’t have to win to make money with the Lions”. This is true. At first it was because the fans buy tickets no matter what. Then there was TV revenue. His $6M purchase is worth billions now. Selling would be good for the Federal budget deficit.
William Clay passed on. Too bad the Lions couldn’t pass on to another owner.
Here is a little history:
December 12th, 2022 at 9:18 AM ^
If the Fords sold the team now, they would owe $612 MM in taxes.
The Federal gov't is $31 trillion in the hole. Not counting unfunded liabilities.
Selling would be good for the Federal budget deficit.
612 million is 0.00197419% of 31 trillion
December 12th, 2022 at 9:31 AM ^
Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't the Ford's get a step up in basis once Martha dies? If true that would be the time to sell the team.
December 12th, 2022 at 10:14 AM ^
That was a part of my calculations considering that happened when WCF died. But since I'm not a tax attorney, who knows if my data is entirely correct or not. I will say my numbers are reasonable but there's just so much that goes into this for an amateur to know for sure.
The point is, the Fed gov't is Carl Sagan-like numbers in the hole with our dollars -- and while the tax the rich sentiment plays well on TV and the interwebs, even if the gov't seized all the private wealth in this country, it wouldn't get us out of that hole.
December 12th, 2022 at 11:01 AM ^
I agree that many don't realize the enormity of the national debt problem and have quaint notions that minimal increases in taxation or budgetary cuts will solve the problem.
As for the step up in basis question, I don't think that WCF passing triggered that as Martha would have likely been co-owner.
December 12th, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^
Stig, My statement, though accurate (“Be good for” does not mean pay off), was hyperbole. Of course it’s a small fraction of a basis point.
I believe they get a step up in basis, sold or not.
Now, everybody is hoping that the we don’t get fooled again and that the new boss isn’t the same as the old boss. I say, just sell the damn thing and let us be rid of them all. 60 years and one playoff win is a lot of pain inflicted on millions of fans across 4 generations. Now if, you come back and tell me actually, you calculate 5 generations …. Ugh.
December 12th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
Be good
Hmmm, how is 0.00197419% be good for?
December 12th, 2022 at 11:37 AM ^
Technically
Do you know what hyperbole is? Or a basis point?
December 12th, 2022 at 12:27 PM ^
Red Wings deserve to be first on the list based on Yzerman's track record, the young assets they've accumulated and current season improvement.
Piston's are second based on current assets and value of this year's draft pick. I have doubts about Troy Weaver overall but he's made some nice draft picks and it would be fairly easy for a new regime to come in and build a sustainable winner.
I'd put the Lions third if Avila was still in place but I'm hopeful about the new Tiger's regime so I'll make it a tie.
I really like Brad Holmes and the two coordinators but that is balanced out in zero confidence in Campbell as coach or the Ford family's ownership. This winning streak is fine (draft implications aside) and I'm glad people are happy and optimistic but I'm not ready to set aside 40+ years of personal history with this team because of a small sample size hot streak. The NFL is designed for parity and games between all but the very best and the very worst teams are generally coin flips.
I hope I'm wrong and the city gets the winner it so badly craves but I need sustained success and multiple seasons of competence before I'm ready to acknowledge anything more than SOL.
December 11th, 2022 at 5:45 PM ^
Nothing is so bad that it can't get worse.
December 12th, 2022 at 4:20 AM ^
That's what my ex-wife said on our honeymoon.
December 11th, 2022 at 5:46 PM ^
The Pistons and Tigers are out because neither team is even close to being playoff contenders, though I ultimately believe in the course that the Pistons are on (#BrickForVic).
The Red Wings are currently just a point out of the playoffs with most of the season left and have been getting better each year under the Yzerplan.
The Lions are currently 1.5 games out of the playoffs after going 5-1 in their last 6 with 4 games left, all of which they should be favored to win.
I would right now slightly favor the Red Wings over the Lions since the Red Wings have been building to this over the years while the Lions are, for now, simply having a nice run after starting the year as badly as possible.
I would need to see the Lions do this again next year for me to believe that this is sustainable, though I certainly like the way that the roster is trending. Goff has become more than serviceable, their skill players are legit, their OL is elite, and the defense is trending in the right direction. Hopefully they can get some help and have a miraculous end to the season to somehow make the playoffs after starting 1-6.
December 12th, 2022 at 9:48 AM ^
"I would need to see the Lions do this again next year for me to believe that this is sustainable." Do it again but not start 1-6 is what I think you meant.
December 11th, 2022 at 5:47 PM ^
I'd like to see some sustained good play from the Lions - they have generations of ill-will to overcome. I try to be optimistic with them, but they make it so hard... I'll go with the Wings as having the brighter future right now. I have faith that Stevie Y will do what Stevie Y does - win.
December 11th, 2022 at 5:51 PM ^
If the Pistons get Wembanyana though…
December 11th, 2022 at 6:03 PM ^
Came here to say that. Pistons are playing for the draft pick, but they have a lot of young talent. Add Wembanyana to the mix and they've got a tough core. I'm excited to jump on the bandwagon once they stop tanking.
...excited about the Lions too though.
December 12th, 2022 at 12:11 PM ^
I honestly think they were trying to stop tanking this season. Trading for and extending Bogdanovich was a lets try and win some more now move. But the combination of injuries and just a complete and utter inability to play any kind of defense whatsoever has turned this into another tank year. Pretty good year to be tanking with the top end talent in the draft, at least.
I think you play all the youth, play it real safe with injuries, then cut Casey loose after taking this seasons lumps at the end of the year. Similar to last season with the Red Wings and Blashill.
December 11th, 2022 at 6:51 PM ^
They need a coaching change as well. The current staff couldn't win even with Wembanyana.
December 11th, 2022 at 7:06 PM ^
It's Wembanyama.
December 11th, 2022 at 8:08 PM ^
If I’m not mistaken, the stupid lottery gives them less than 50% chance at #1 pick. All that tanking could very well be for naught.
December 12th, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^
Yeah, I have very little optimism that Detroit will actually end up with the #1 pick.
December 11th, 2022 at 5:58 PM ^
I think The Lions, Wings and Pistons are on their way up. I don't follow baseball enough to have a feel on them.
The Lions are playing good football right now. They're playing like a playoff team after that bad start. Yet, even that bad start had some tough losses. IIRC, Detroit has a higher point differential than The Vikings so it shows how those close games can truly be decided on the smallest of breaks.
The Wings have one of the best minds at GM right now and probably the best European scouts in the game. I feel like their talent acquisition is a lot like The Lions with their finding gems later on in drafts and pulling off some good trades.
The Pistons have three really good, young pieces (2 smalls and a big) and will likely be in decent shape to add the best prospect since Lebron in The Draft. Their fortunes could flip really, really quickly.
I don't follow baseball at all so I can't say what shape they're in.
December 11th, 2022 at 6:20 PM ^
FWIW, the Pistons' chances to get Victor Wembanyama, even if they finish with one of the three worst records in the league, is only going to be 14%.
December 11th, 2022 at 6:34 PM ^
Oooof, didn't know that. I listed the teams in order of how much I know about the sport so I'd call myself a pretty basic, surface-level fan of The NBA.
Is there a specific reason why they'd only have a 14% shot regardless of 1-3 placement or is that always the odds in The Lottery? I always thought it was something like 40% at the top and then falling with each spot.
December 11th, 2022 at 7:13 PM ^
Because the NBA is paranoid about teams tanking.
December 12th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
Scoot Henderson at #2 would be one hell of a consolation prize. He is considered a step up as a prospect compared to the top of last years draft class, which was a good one.
The problem there is he is sort of Jaden Ivey+. Ball dominant lead guard who is still more of a scorer than a facilitator. Im not sure how a backcourt of Henderson & Ivey with Cade playing on the wing would work. Ivey or Scoot as the 6th man would probably be the best way to work through this but I doubt either guard would be happy in that role.
December 11th, 2022 at 6:01 PM ^
I think the Lions and Bears could have a good chance to take over the division the next 10 years.
(yes, my picture checks out)
December 11th, 2022 at 6:16 PM ^
I'm not a Lions fan but it would be such a Lions thing to do if they lose every game the rest of the season after this post.
December 11th, 2022 at 6:22 PM ^
Random 6 game winning streak huh?
December 11th, 2022 at 6:24 PM ^
as always, it is dangerous to get excited about the Lions. They always disappoint.
December 11th, 2022 at 7:26 PM ^
Lions = Lucy
Lions fans = Charlie Brown
December 11th, 2022 at 9:12 PM ^
So we're Michigan fans till last year!
So there's a chance?
December 11th, 2022 at 6:26 PM ^
As of a couple weeks ago, it was probably a forgone conclusion they would use their draft capital to get the QB of their choice. I'm starting to wonder if they use that capital to build around what they currently have. If you had the choice between a DL stud (Carter or Anderson) or Bryce Young, who would you take for the lions?
December 11th, 2022 at 6:36 PM ^
Take Carter then see if Myles Murphy drops to the mid teens, maybe trade back a bit with their second first and snag a guy like Jared verse. make the Dline as elite as the Oline
December 11th, 2022 at 6:40 PM ^
Be stunned if Carter drops to the Rams' pick. Carter, Anderson, and Young should be the clean top three, though Stroud will be in there instead I'd assume.