Official Score Prediction and game narrative thread

Spread is 4.5 and O/U is 56.5. So math says 30.5-26. I suppose to cover and get the over:

Michigan 31, Washington 26.

28-24 Blue guys.

Penix late INT driving the field in the red zone. 

My gut feel is 42-24.

We winning. 38-34.

UW is 14-0 for a reason - their blueprint for success is simple - score early to force you into “comeback” mode. They score, they get a stop, they score - they’re up 10 or 14. Similar to TCU last year, Michigan gets frustrated and has to rush and get out of their comfort zone to rally. Look to see who sets the tone early - if UW gets a stop and scores quickly and immediately, be a bit concerned about the early tone of the game. MPJ is no joke and he manipulates the pocket and the eyes of the DBs with a ton of ball fakes - all he needs is that split second to open up a window of opportunity to hit someone for big gain.
 

People are talking about the matchup of their O-line vs our D-line - truthfully I think there’s something else people are missing - our DBs against the officials. If we get called for 3 or more DPI, I will have a bad feeling about the game, especially if the Huskies are up and moving the ball consistently.

Against just about anyone else, I think we would be fine but this matchup scares me because of how lightning quick UW scores, how they protect MPJ and how difficult it is to keep pace.

Michigan will put up points but we cannot get into a shootout otherwise I think we lose a tight one. 
 

It will be interesting to see how much pressure we bring early to MPJ - if we only rush four and cannot get home then there’s another indicator that favors UW. It will also be interesting to see how much respect we give their running game - particularly if Johnson is out or not productive.

I truly think we are the more talented team but I worry about the direction of the game based on those indicators above.

My head: Michigan 31 Washington 24

My heart: Michigan 34 Washington 21

My Fearsome Reality: Washington 44 Michigan 37

Go Blue!

I'm sticking with 34-27 Michigan.  If we hold them in the 20s, we can win somewhat comfortable.  If they score 30-40, it will be a nail biter but still very winnable.  40s and we're looking at TCU again.

Just make plays when they present themselves (catch the interception thrown right to you, pick up the fumble, complete the wide open touchdown pass) and go blue!

38-26 Michigan. 

Semaj has a 40+ yard run. 

Washington outgains us, but the defense forces two picks.

Corum has 150+ yards and 3 TDs. 

I took Michigan +900 to win the NC back in April.  Talking myself into letting it ride and not hedging. Feels like this team will not be denied no matter what you put in their path. Probably going to end up throwing more money down on Corum over 100yds and 2 td's.

Maybe I'm over-confident, but I think this goes similar to an early-season B1G game. We see old JJ playing against a so-so defense, we see Blake run all over them, and we punt once all game. On the other side, they get their ridiculous plays but at a lesser pace than they're used to. We get some back-breaking turnovers that we turn into touchdowns to pull away late. 45-31 M.

michigan 38, washington 34.

I'll go with 45-24 and Michigan win. While I think Washington has a lot of offensive firepower, we match up well with them as the defense is built to stop a high power offense aka OSU. Their defense will have a difficult time stopping our offense, and in the trenches we come out ahead on both sides. The team with the great D-line usually wins the National Championship. 

At the half we will have around a TD lead and just build on it in the 3rd quarter while in the 4th the boa constrictor squeezes the life out of them.

Built to beat Ohio State.

42-27

Old school …. 23-6 Meechigan for BO and BOB

If we can run the ball and get long, sustained drives that drain the clock, I think we win.  We aren't going to be able to completely shut down throw god Penix, so the best way to beat him is to keep the ball out of his hands as much as possible.  I think this will be a much closer game than many here seem to believe.  I'm going with 32-30 Michigan, but to me, this game is a toss-up, much like the Rose Bowl. 

30-20 Wolverines

42-32 Wolverines in a game that isn't that close.

>280 yds of rushing offense. 

Donovan Edwards has the game we've been waiting for all season. 

3 UW turnovers

1 pick-6 for the Conquering Heroes.   

Edit 

42-24

Semaj Morgan has a punt return for a TD.

Clean game and UW can’t hang. 

45-43. Michigan.

Goes down to wire. Ambulance will be called to revive my heart at least twice.

I think the refs aggressively calling DPIs keeps UW in it until mid-4th qtr when the boa constrictor takes over and ends the game. 45-37 Michigan

34-27 Michigan.

Washington gets ball inside of 3 minutes with a chance to tie (win?) and the UM defense will step up and force an errant Penix throw that's picked off by Mikey, game over!

I like our chances. 

1. We have the three highest PFF graded DBs that Washington will have faced all year. 

2. Our O-Line and D-Line just bullied Bama. 

3. Washington is built like OSU, but with fewer 5 stars. 

4. Washington has won 8 one score games this year. They could easily be a 2 or 3 loss team right now if a few plays go differently. 

5. The Washington offense has weaknesses and has played several games in the 20s. Michigan’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 24 points all year. 

Michigan wins 31 to 20. 

28-26, Michigan. Hold onto your butts. This one will make the Rose Bowl stress look like child’s play. 

I have no prediction so I will predict that we will match the score of the 1981 Rose Bowl and prevail by a score of 23-6.

More experienced JJ and having BC in the backfield will be the difference maker in addition to awesome D. 38-17 UM

Can we run the ball and can we prevent chunk throws? I think yes to the former and no to the latter. Throw out the Michigan defense stats because there’s no way you can accurately adjust for just how much better Washington’s passing game is than anybody else we’ve faced.

My brain says we lose and my heart says we win. I’ve only posted my brain takes the last 3 years and I’m fine to be consistently wrong.

Washington 38 - Michigan 24

If Penix has a game like he did against Texas, this game is no better than a coin flip for Michigan. That is the kind of performance that negates talent gaps across the board. That's the Deshaun Watson vs. Alabama effect, and if Penix plays that way again, Washington could very well win this thing. 

What I'm telling myself is that Texas has a bad pass defense, they failed to take advantage of the fact that they ran the ball really well, and Penix had plenty of instances in the back half of the season where he did not look anything remotely like he did against Texas. Now, Washington is facing a team that isn't just good at running the ball, but that's all it wants to do. Harbaugh would be happy to give Washington a dose of Blake Corum for a full 60 minutes if that meant a W. If Washington can't stop the run game, especially well into the second half, Michigan takes this thing.

35-28. I don't know who, and yes, its because I'm afraid to jinx it. 

36-34 Washington

A FG—made or missed—determines the final outcome.

Michigan gonna roll boys

um 45

wash 23

34-27 Michigan. Washington falls behind and makes a late rally that comes up short. 

The more I cogitate upon the massive data, the more I see the similarities between UW this year and TCU last year.

QB plays out of his mind to carry team higher than it belongs, winning one tight game after another.  

A pile of close wins means one thing - you are lucky.  Nothing wrong with that but it is better to be good than lucky.

That UW is the team of Destiny?  Gag me with a spoon.

Many factors led to the Fiesta Bowl fiasco last year but one that will not repeat, which alone would have made the difference, in the opinion of this non-expert eye witness, is coaching. This year's play calling alone would have given us a W.

Yes, UW better than 2022 TCU, so I am not calling it 66 to 3.

35 to 13 Michigan.

As we are all a little (?) wonky today, I include my UK grad, horse farming daughter's take.  She was raised on UM football, having attended her first games in utero.

"That’s the race that makes me think of. I’ve felt the same way since the Bama game as I did at this moment in that race. Wise Dan knew where the wire was, and if he had a path to it, he was getting there first. From the apron at Keeneland, I could see his face and I knew. He still had good horses to beat, he’d had to go wide, but he could see the wire. No reason to have felt that confident that soon, but Wise Dan knew what the goal was. AAAAHHHHHHH ITS GAME DAY"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tGsb5wFg9U

38-30

Washington scores their last touchdown with less than one minute left

Followed by a Failed onside kick

I'm afraid that Washington is basically Ohio State with a good player caller who spends time studying his opponent rather than breaking into Catapult and hiring PIs. 

But Michigan has a pretty clear advantage in the other 3 match ups so it definitely feels like Michigan should win this one. Washington has good vibes and momentum but who doesn't when you get to the championship game? Michigan does too. We just haven't had to beat a bunch of mediocre teams by an inch

We lose if Penix wants to be a super hero. If he does, well good game and it's something like 38-30 Washington. Assuming Minter has some good stuff dialed up, I'm going Michigan 34-24

I have a workmate who has a close relative who has been affiliated with the football program for many years.  He is is some sort of training/medical position.  I think his tenure dates back to Carr.  In any event, each week during the football season he sends out his pregame summary and prediction.  So far this year, he is 14-0 on the win/loss although he has missed the spread several times. 

He's calling this one Michigan 38 and Washington 34. 

Much closer than I'd like, but I'll go with that.     

I am NOT dissing UW as a team... I can accept that they really are the 2nd best team in the whole country.

But... It really does just feel like this IS the team that M was built to beat. They just wear purple instead of red and gray...

So, the D is gonna do what it was built to do, and the O needs no important adjustments to match up with UW's D.

Since I'm thinking of them as ohio in purple, I'll say 30-24 for the good guys. It's worked once this year...

28-21 good guys

I’m picking 45-21… Feel like will be tight 1st quarter then a pick six by Will, Mikey or Barrett changes the game into a rout.