NFL Execs: Harbaugh is lavishing false praise on JJ to boost LA draft pick
Granted, a lot of this just seems to be written in the spirit of churning out meaningless NFL draft content. But much is being made of a Yahoo story by Charles Robinson from the other day:
NFL Draft is poker season, and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy might simply be its latest QB bluff
Robinson begins by talking about how often QBs get pumped up pre-draft just to slip in the actual draft (e.g., Will Levis last year). But the part that has everyone rushing to their keyboards, social media, and AI generators is this:
So where is the poker being played here? Interestingly, quite a few evaluators are pointing at McCarthy’s former coach at Michigan, Jim Harbaugh, who is now with the Los Angeles Chargers and sitting with the fifth overall pick. Nearly every evaluator I spoke to about McCarthy brought up the considerable praise that Harbaugh has been lavishing on his former player, which included calling him the best quarterback in this draft. To say that statement has elicited some eye-rolls would be a vast underestimation of how it was received in many personnel departments. ...
Another longtime evaluator noted, “Jim needs everything but a quarterback. So every quarterback that gets taken before [the fifth pick] is a win for him.”
While nobody suggested that Harbaugh is the source of the supposed Commanders interest at No. 2 overall, some evaluators came close.
“There definitely could be a little bit of an ulterior motive to get someone pushed to him, for sure. That would be a Harbaugh type move,” one evaluator said. “There’s a plan there, I would say. Because they’re sitting there like, all right, if top four are QBs, we get our pick of whatever the hell we want. They’re probably in the best position of any team up there, because now the first four probably are going to be quarterbacks.”
“He’s definitely been pumping [McCarthy] a lot,” another evaluator said of Harbaugh. “It seems like he’s doing it every time he sits down with anyone. Which I’m sure that’s what most coaches would say about their guy who wins a national championship and has that [27-1] record as a starter. But it’s definitely convenient that McCarthy going in those top four picks is really a best-case scenario for the Chargers, too. I do think there’s something to that, too.”
Jim compared JJ to Mahomes and Josh Allen at the Big Ten media days last year and praised him as the best to ever do it at Michigan throughout the season. What amazing foresight to know that he'd be the HC of the Chargers with the 5th pick and that JJ would enter the draft. I'll admit, this ruse all year long where Harbaugh praised JJ fooled me; I thought it was about JJ and Michigan, not about his nefarious plan to get the Pats to take a QB and to trick the Cardinals into trading their pick (I guess so that LA can draft Marvin Harrison).
March 31st, 2024 at 10:30 AM ^
I honestly think Penix is the best QB in this class
whoever drafts JJ is going to very happy too
March 31st, 2024 at 10:32 AM ^
Really?? IMO Penix is one of the worst. All these QBs who stayed in college forever because of Covid year I wouldn’t touch unless I needed a back up. Bo Nix and Penix fit that.
March 31st, 2024 at 10:47 AM ^
The thing with Penix is he’s a talented player not elite, but he’s never going to play 17 games. He will be hit harder every play than he was in college and he could barely play a full 12 game season.
March 31st, 2024 at 10:51 AM ^
Penix was a blast to watch in college, but he's a career backup, at best, in the NFL.
Not the worst career move, just ask Todd Collins.
Or Drew Stanton. Or Chad Henne.
I think in the right set-up he'll do well (like most QBs).
Basically, he needs to get drafted by a team with one of the best OLs in the NFL.
Completely different QB, but at his peak, I think he can be just as effective as say Jalen Hurts was two years ago when he led his team to a Super Bowl.
It's more likely that a team uses a first rounder on him and expects him to elevate them...and he's just not that kind of QB. Do that it's he's just another Kenny Pickett.
He's not going to take you "above the X's and O's" like Joel Klatt would say.
Put Penix on the Ravens, Lions, Cowboys, or Eagles...love that fit. The problem is, they all have starting QBs.
I honestly think Williams, Maye, and McCarthy can play anywhere and if you build the team around them...you can win.
The career backup for me is Bo Nix. He would be great for a team like Tampa.
The one I'm not sure on is Jayden Daniels...I'd love to put him in the Williams/Maye/McCarthy group, but I don't think his game translates to "anywhere." The same way Tua is a great QB, but his game doesn't translate to just anywhere.
Daniels in Atlanta would he a great fit, but they just got Kork. Vegas would be another great fit, but their OL is doo doo.
He got blasted in the Rose Bowl. He was holding his ribs in the third quarter. He won’t survive NFL hits, but it may be a two hand touch league soon!
March 31st, 2024 at 11:42 AM ^
Totally agree with Bo Nix. Out of the league in 3, but I think the precision of Penix ball placement on throws is elite, and we’ve seen with TB12, Drew Brees, and I’ll throw Greg Maddox in there for fun, how that is an under ranked ability that can keep you rolling in the league long after your fast ball is gone.
March 31st, 2024 at 12:50 PM ^
When it comes to Penix, control matters.
I thought it was size that mattered....
He also has a very quick release.
Agree on Penix's ball placement. That interception to Sainristil hit Mikey right in the zero.
March 31st, 2024 at 12:27 PM ^
Neither Bonix nor Penix arouse me.
Penix is a better passer than JJ particularly on the medium and long range throws. Better arm, good mobility although he didn’t use it much in college.
Penix went up against an elite defense. JJ did not and even then JJ was merely okay. Do also remember the offense going stagnant for large chunks of the game just as it vs OSU and Bama.
How do you rank the following defenses from 2023?
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Iowa
- Alabama
If you go by scoring, it's 2, 3, 4, 16. If you'd rather use SP+ defensive ranking it's, 2, 4, 3, 8. You can also add in Nebraska at 6 in the SP+.
Are you arguing that Michigan's was the only elite defense last year? I don't think that's a fair bar to set.
He didn’t perform particularly well in those games. Only vs Bama did he have decent numbers.
How are you determining that?
JJ's QBR in the games I mentioned
NEB - 99.3
PSU - 95.6
OSU - 94.4
IOWA - 70
ALA - 91.9
So, he didn't have a great game vs Iowa, but according to the ratings, he had better games VS NEB, also vs OSU and PSU when he was playing hurt, than he did vs. Alabama.
PFF also agrees that JJ had better games vs NEB, PSU and OSU than vs Alabama:
NEB - 77.6
PSU - 74.4
OSU - 71.9
IOWA - 67.7
ALA - 71.2
To throw out a comparison, JJ had a higher overall grade (90.6) than Patrick Mahomes (90.2) did in his senior year. Do you think Mahomes faced tougher defenses for TTU in 2016 than McCarthy did this year?
He threw 8 passes vs PSU. UM won that game because of the defense and running game.
Nebraska’s defense is generally meh. Not sure why you even mentioned that game.
JJ played on a 15-0 national title team. Mahomes played on a 5-7 team. Why are you comparing Q performances on teams that were massively different in quality?
JJ was 16-20 148 vs OSU. Efficient, but not elite numbers.
J.J. did whatever the team needed him to do in order to win. Who cares if that meant his stats weren’t “Elite”? I sure don’t.
Hey man, what'd I do to piss you off? Going through my whole history to downvote me. Weird stuff.
March 31st, 2024 at 10:58 AM ^
Biggest problem with Penix is his accuracy drops dramatically when he's moved off his spot. Can't throw on the run or buy enough time in the pocket. That's how we made him look so pedestrian.
March 31st, 2024 at 11:03 AM ^
We said this same exact thing (accuracy drops dramatically when moved off his spot) about CJ Stroud, and it turns out we were wrong, he's been an excellent NFL QB so far.
March 31st, 2024 at 11:11 AM ^
True. I mean, everybody gets worse when they get pressure. But Stroud had significantly better games against us than Penix did. Anyway, I don't think Penix is doomed as a prospect, just saying why he's not the #1 prospect in this draft (or 2 or 3 or 4...). But people are wrong all the time so we'll see.
March 31st, 2024 at 11:23 AM ^
Our 2023 defense was also better than our 2022 and 2021 defenses, maybe by a lot. Best comparison is probably that Stroud had a great day against the Georgia 2022 defense, a bit of an outlier by him though (at least based on his college history).
In an equally "people are wrong all the time" sense, I will guess Penix will be the 3rd best QB in the draft over the first 3 years (behind JJ and one of the others)
March 31st, 2024 at 11:21 AM ^
The Stroud thing was something pumped up by Michigan fans who either didn’t watch him a lot or could not be objective. Stroud frequently made some tight throws on the move in his time at OSU.
March 31st, 2024 at 11:27 AM ^
And I thought he played really well against us, too. OSU losing was not Stroud's fault.
Yeah, the '22 game he was outstanding, but WE WON!!!
March 31st, 2024 at 11:31 AM ^
According to PFF https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2023-nfl-draft-profile-c-j-stroud-ohio-state
What he needs to improve: We just talked about how good Stroud is when kept clean in the pocket (71.7% completion rate, 35 touchdowns, 93.4 PFF grade). Well, he is basically the polar opposite under pressure (41.3% completion rate, six touchdowns, 42.0 PFF grade).
And stats from before the National Championship game (comparing JJ and Penix): https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/michael-penix-jr-vs-jj-mccarthy-stats-how-washington-michigan-quarterbacks-compare/b81a9c6bf423dc9195df2102
He is 55 of 122 (45.1%) for 1,014 yards with five TDs and three interceptions when under pressure, according to PFF
Also says Penix is 66.7% completion overall. So it sounds like maybe the "innaccurate when moved off his spot" is even less true about Penix?
(fwiw, JJ goes from 73.2% to 62.3%, wow)
March 31st, 2024 at 11:56 AM ^
I thought the end zone throw to Cade Stover (which was famously broken up at the last second by Mikey) was pretty amazing. Stroud was moving backward and still managed to place it perfectly.
March 31st, 2024 at 11:33 AM ^
Looks at Strouds numbers vs us and compare to Penix. Not even close
March 31st, 2024 at 11:34 AM ^
I never said that I just said CJ Stroud can't win big games and he has yet to prove that.
March 31st, 2024 at 11:56 AM ^
Stroud has played high visibility football for three seasons. To try to put the “can’t win big games” label on him at this point is just dumb. He was outstanding in both losses to Michigan and almost beat a Georgia team that dominated everyone, then had the best rookie season ever for an NFL QB. Your Michigan fandom has apparently handicapped your capacity for rational thought.
March 31st, 2024 at 12:26 PM ^
I mean he won an NFL playoff game. Maybe it's just really hard to beat Michigan and Georgia?
Yeah. I was really hard on Stroud after the 2022 game. But in retrospect a big factor in his frustrations was that he was playing an elite defense with a game-changing scheme and underrated elite players. It was easy to pick on Stroud, and fun in rivalry terms, but then he went and played really well against Georgia and lit up the NFL, and that same defense devoured literally everybody the next season.
I have no problem recognizing that the problem wasn’t Stroud. The problem was playing against Michigan.
You've caught the "qb wins is a worthwhile statistic" disease pushed by the worst parts of sports media. Get treatment.
March 31st, 2024 at 11:44 AM ^
idk. You wanted to move Stroud off his spot in hopes of messing with his accuracy, but I still thought he was pretty lethal off balance. Thinking back to the final 4th down throw in '21 that he delivered across his body on the money or the '22 Sainristil break up where Stroud was back pedaling and still floated in basically an inch perfect throw. Penix wasn't doing that
Difference is Stroud would chuck it out of bounds when pressured because he was holding back at ohio so his numbers suffered. Once he actually got paid millions to risk his body he did and he's been excellent.
March 31st, 2024 at 11:16 AM ^
I figured I'd get neg'd for this
I love JJ too
One reason is his hand size.... he also has leadership.... overall I feel his skills are going translate well..... I think Penix is being underrated and has been for a long time.... you'll see
March 31st, 2024 at 11:19 AM ^
Penix arguably has the highest floor, but he is an old geezer of a prospect. Williams, Maye, and McCarthy still have oodles of untapped potential.
March 31st, 2024 at 11:35 AM ^
Current state of QB needy teams may not be the best place to realize that potential - unless the Vikings are willing to trade all the way up to top 3, and one of those teams is willing to trade all the way down (best opportunity: Drake May "slides" to 3, and Pats trade down to the Vikes)
Part of any "Penix will be a better pro" argument likely includes the fact he'll end up at a better team spot, and while quite unfair to the QBs there's no practical other way to compare.
March 31st, 2024 at 11:35 AM ^
One thing’s for sure about Penix is I’ll really miss all of the jokes.
March 31st, 2024 at 12:28 PM ^
We really worked those Penix jokes to the bone. (As you can see, I'll miss them too.)
I hope Penix has a long lasting career.
Some notes I've taken on Penix throughout the years:
Size is just about right
Loses composure when pulling out of the pocket
Fires medium range ropes and typically hits his target
Yuck
March 31st, 2024 at 11:55 AM ^
Penix is made of paper and that would scare me as an NFL team. Not to mention, he needed ideal conditions to succeed at Washington. Joe Moore OL designed around pass pro to keep him untouched, one of the best WR corps in the country, and playing PAC-12 defenses every week. I think he's got amazing arm talent, but I question how he will translate and hold up in the NFL
March 31st, 2024 at 12:43 PM ^
Caleb Williams is the best QB in this draft ! Penix was a very good college QB ,(should’ve won the Heisman) he just happened to have a good OL and 3 NFL WRs
With all due respect, I think you are very wrong. He is like 25? Many injuries in past, and Michigans pro style d ate him alive. It ain’t going to get any easier for him there.
he is a fine backup but I would be so shocked if he was ever even an OK starter.
if you are right , crow will be eaten but i don’t see it at all.
JJ is second best qb in draft behind Williams
Penix is a career ending injury waiting to happen.