NFL draft chatter from ESPN ($)
A few nuggets on Michigan players. Ok, mostly JJ since he's in the conversation for top 5 picks, but also a bonus nugget.
Fowler: My sense after asking around to several sources is that the Patriots have Daniels rated ahead of North Carolina's Drake Maye in the pecking order but still like Maye's upside. McCarthy would fall somewhere after that, though I was reminded Tuesday night to not totally discount Robert Kraft's affinity for Tom Brady, who might see shades of himself in McCarthy, a fellow Michigan product. The Patriots could trade back and acquire McCarthy with a later pick.
Hey, that would be great if they took JJ, but seems unlikely. Also seems unlikely that JJ would be around if the Pats traded back.
Graziano: The Giants have been tough to get a handle on. A month ago, many in the league believed their favorite quarterback in the class was McCarthy. If that were true, things have changed. The rumblings early this week: The Giants' guy is Maye.
I don't think the Giants were ever really in the conversation for JJ at #6 with all the projections suggesting that MN will trade up for JJ at #5. That said, if the NYG do trade up, I'd think it would either be to #4 with AZ or #5 with LAC. I can't see any of the top 3 teams wanting to drop back to 6 where they're almost assuredly NOT getting one of the top QBs.
Teams are split on whether Minnesota's target would be Maye or McCarthy or someone else (slight lean to Maye, based on my attempts at an informal poll)... It's worth noting that the Vikings had a positive experience in the pre-draft process with all five of the QBs stacked behind USC's Caleb Williams, which means Penix and Oregon's Bo Nix could also be options.
That would be crazy since the vast majority of mocks I've seen have JJ at #5 to MIN via LAC. The rumblings also suggest that Penix could go in the first round. Not as much on Nix, though.
Graziano: No running backs are expected to go in the first round, and there's a great variety of opinion on which one will be the first back selected this year. I've spoken to scouts from multiple teams who think Michigan's Blake Corum might be the best of the bunch and believe Jim Harbaugh's Chargers will do what it takes to make sure he's reunited with his college coach.
Yeah baby!
Fowler: I heard an interesting thought from an NFL coordinator on USC's Williams: The Bears need to get him immersed in their run-first, progression system early because coming from the Lincoln Riley offense is not easy. "The transition scares me for some of these guys where it's just, set, hike, find the open man," the coordinator said. "And you've seen guys like Kyler [Murray] and Baker [Mayfield] struggle with the transition at times."
Honestly, this seems like something JJ would excel at out of the gate. Then again, Chicago Bears, where QB top draft picks go to die. It's not happening either way, just saying.
April 24th, 2024 at 12:49 PM ^
NE would be possibly the worst landing for JJ. Terrible supporting cast with unproven coaching.
April 24th, 2024 at 12:53 PM ^
Also an obnoxious fanbase.
And constant "the last time NE had a UM QB...." mentions and pressure
I’m nominally a Pats fan, but let’s add an…ummm…*iffy* owner to the list of negatives.
I think you meant stiffy.
Yeah, no sense massaging the truth here.
Just be happy in the end... that's all we can hope for
Buffalo and Philly and any New York team have a bone to pick with you.
Agree. I don't want JJ to NE or Chicago. Williams is going to fail hard at Chicago. They fucked up getting rid of Fields IMO.
I think Minny is a great fit for JJ. I would root for them.
I don't think the Pats will take JJ (thank god). I wrote up my amateur tea leaf reading prediction here (It's for an Eagles website so I couldn't resist some friendly roasting in it)
April 24th, 2024 at 12:50 PM ^
Sounds like certain teams MAY BE talking up Maye in a devious plot to secure getting JJ.
April 24th, 2024 at 12:58 PM ^
I still think Minnesota is a good landing spot for JJ with all the weapons he would have around him.
Minnesota is the spot for any of the QBs - Jefferson and Addison outside and Hock at TE. A solid OLine and an offensive-minded HC. Add to that a suspect D that will keep the offense needing to score... I hope JJ lands there. CHI is going with Williams, WAS is a perennial tire fire, so is NE (recently), and AZ is either trading or getting MH Jr.
New England has only been down for a few years, since Brady left. They've actually been one of the top NFL franchises going back to Bill Parcells through Belichick. Even Pete Carroll's tenure there from 1997-1999 wasn't bad; he went 27-21 and never had a losing season.
Absolutely. They were dominant for a long time... That's why I said recently. They have nothing in the way of offensive talent now (and since before Brady left).
Rhamondre Stevenson is an underrated back, Hunter Henry is a plus TE , the OL is garbage and WR core could use a boost the problem is outside moss they never believed in a true #1 they went with a four man #2 rotation and spread the ball around. I still have nightmares of wide eyed Reche Caldwell dropping passes uncovered
Agree, even as a Lions fan I'm okay with JJ to Minnesota as they have everything for him to be successful.
I guess because as we slide into 2024 the Lions, IMO, have the best roster in the NFL so even if JJ is successful Detroit will still be much better.
Regardless, JJ has done so much for me personall by providing a dream that I honestly didn't think Michigan could achieve both in dominating OSU then knocking off the mighty SEC for a national title...I'll always root for JJ no matter what...he's earned it.
I do not get the Penix 1st round chatter at all. Elongated throwing motion, needs a lot of room to throw, injury concerns, struggles to throw after resetting his feet, and worst of all left handed. His Michigan tape would scare me a ton as an NFL GM, that was supposed to be a fair fight in that he had NFL skill guys and an elite OL and he looked awful. Only sacked once but faced NFL style pressure (IE not hit a ton but constantly having the DL near you) and completely crumbled. I am also leery of guys who only blew up after playing college football forever.
Not to mention effectively immobile.
Not to mention 24 years old
I'm with you. He has all the skills and physical toughness you want, but he fell apart under all that pressure. Could just be smoke. Second round? Sure. First round? Reach. Top half of the first round? Um wut?
I guess it depends on whether you view Penix v Texas or Penix v Michigan as more indicative of who he is.
He had the game of his life vs Texas…who might have played the dumbest best defense or the best dumb defense ever.
I’m rooting for the guy, but watching him fall apart into his constituent molecules towards the end of the Championship game, behind a Joe Moore OL and throwing to surefire NFL receivers, it didn’t inspire confidence.
And don’t forget, Washington got a net of 3 total rushing yards from the QB position this past season. 3!
Who runs a Fuck It & Chuck It offense in the NFL?
I don't know about the Fuck It & Chuck It offense, but I believe Bruce Arians runs the definitely related No Risk It, No Biscuit offense. While he is no longer a HC in Tampa, he is football consultant. So Penix to TB.
Penix was playing out of his mind against a Texas team with no corners that could generate any pressure throwing to 3 NFL WRs including a Top 15 pick in Rome Odunze. Of course he looked out of this world fantastic and that environment is never being replicated on Sundays. Against Michigan he faced a hell of a lot more pressure and NFL DBs and coverage concepts and completely fell apart, something that will absolutely happen almost every week in the NFL. I don’t understand the Penix hype at all, his clean vs pressure splits and relative immobility would scare the hell of out me as a GM. He looks like a Day 3 pick or UFA and a career back up.
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. He's not as good as he showed in the Texas game but probably not as bad as he showed in the Michigan. Though notably that was maybe the only game all season where he was consistently under pressure (as the offensive line did a good job of protection the rest of the season).
Agreed. Penix vs. Michigan is pretty close to what Penix will see in the NFL (though he may have a competent run game to help him out). 5.0 ypa and 1 TD / 2 INT aint good
The thought of seeing Aidan Hutchinson chasing down JJ two games every year doesn't appeal to me. I do NOT want him picked by the Vikings or Bears.
This will be a very interesting draft to look back on in 5 years. For the number of QB's who could be drafted in the top 10, I think there are serious questions about all of them. I still believe JJ will be the best. His performance leading Michigan to points was the most agnostic to quality of opponent as any of the other top QB's. I think Williams and Maye have the biggest question marks.
Everyone is a question mark tbh, but with Williams it’s more of a question re: his resilience.
Chicago is basically a lock to YOLO him onto the field as a rookie. He’s gonna have more than a few “welcome to the League rook” moments. Can he shake them off and improve his game? QBs can be broken.
I am so damn glad this is nearly over.
why are you jj's mom or somethin
Caveat: I don't care about the NFL, I hope Michigan guys do well and have an opportunity to be successful and that's the extent of my involvement with it.
The vacillations near the draft are hilarious when it comes to QBs, as if there aren't years of film out there on these players and we don't know what level of competition they played against or what system they developed in. Gee, which one operated in a pro system and can make literally every throw in an NFL window? Oh and literally wins everywhere he's playted? Yeah, I'll take that guy, thanks.
Penix was downright pedestrian against an NFL level defense when he was forced to go through more than one read, and his third read was MASON GRAHAM. That game should be exhibit A why you don't take him with a high pick.
Williams is a gamble, I don't understand why a team would take a flyer on a guy who played in an offense that doesn't translate to the league and often made hay by improvising long enough for a guy to get wide open and certainly has some other question marks headed into the draft.
I don't care what Drake Maye did at UNC.
I hope JJ ends up on a team that will allow him to develop and isn't a tire fire, I think he has as good a chance as anyone to excel at the next level.
Smokescreen season, not buying any of it. We will find out soon enough if it is true.
I agree. Unless you're Al Avila, if it is being reported a team is leaning toward a particular player or really likes a player, my belief is it's subterfuge. These "reports" leak because the team wants them to leak.
I believe the NFC North will be the toughest division in the nfl next year. Detroit, as well as GB, are already very competitive with the top teams in the league. Minnesota has all the players on offense but a qb. If they get JJ, who I think is the most nfl ready of the top four qbs in the draft, they’ll have a potential 2023 Houston like season with a rookie qb. Chicago has the defensive players now to be in most every game, as well as very good veteran offensive skill position players. They really just need a qb right now. And as down as I’ve been on Williams, he does seem to have a mahomes type knack for making plays out of nothing. If that can translate into the nfl the bears might be right on the heels of Minnesota and GB for 2nd best in the nfc north.
I can't see Williams being successful in Chicago. His success at OK and USC are a product of the Riley Scheme - buy some time to throw it deep to uber-athletic WRs that can out-athlete most college players. Eventually, those will hit for big gainer and/or TDs more often than the other team can score. Until it's time to play a peer, anyway. That shit don't work against peers - witness Riley's playoff appearances...
Every time I watched Maye, I was unimpressed. Sure, he's an above average QB for an above-average college team. But nothing he did impressed me. He threw more floaters and throws in the '~5 yds from the WR' range than he did pinpoint targets. I see him as a journeyman backup in the NFL.
Penix (and Williams to a slightly lesser extent) loses his mind under pressure. Fuget abut it...
Nix benefitted from Oregon's roster more than any other QB may have benefitted from a roster.
Daniels' stats were very much like JJ's, but I didn't see him play enough to comment. I'm not sure how many NFL hits he can survive, though, because he like to play outside the tackles from what I can tell.
My money is on JJ being the best QB drafted this year. You can all pay up in 5 years, when we can make a more honest comparison.
I know what you are saying about Williams, and to a large extent I agree with you. However, of all of the Riley QBs, Williams was the one who most went off script and he didn’t always chuck it down the field. I’ve seen numerous plays that he made that reminded me of mahomes that kept plays alive and got the next first down.
I think the biggest question about him will be “Can he live with the 4-5 yd crossers or check downs instead of trying to play hero ball every play?”
If he can then like I said, the nfc north will be the toughest division in the nfl.
I really don't get the Maye chatter. Anytime I have watched him play, I find him the least impressive of the top 4 QBs. I think teams are trying to find the next Josh Allen.