Michigan (-5) @ Penn State - Line movement & A Gambling Perspective on Current Events
Yep, another post regarding the spread for this week's Michigan @ PSU game. This stuff is a lot of fun to me, spreads do tell a story. I love trying to decipher what's going on, and trying to piece that story together from an unbiased, Vegas-wants-to-take-all-your-money lens.
Circling back on a previous thread that the spread for this weekend's game is Michigan -7 / o/u46.5. I can confirm I was on DraftKings early Saturday morning and it was UM -7. The line has indeed moved over the weekend to more of a consensus Michigan -5 / o/u44. Currently you can get UM -4.5 at BetMGM and PSU +5.5 at FanDuel. I.e. it hasn't reached a consensus yet, typical of Monday morning.
I'm not sure about the look-ahead total, but if it was 46.5 on Saturday morning, it has come down quite a bit from the look-ahead to currently o/u 44. This checks out: Totals tend to go lower when a dog starts to pick up some steam. Closer game, tighter play, lower totals.
The spread movement could be a couple of things. The obvious reason is bettors saw the PSU/Maryland game and hammered PSU +7 on Saturday. PSU looked dreadful against OSU, mediocre at home against a bad Indiana team, but then bounced back very nicely against Maryland. I don't really care about the "yeah but Maryland stinks" line of thinking. Maryland had that game circled, and PSU crushed the spread by 45 points. Definitely some line movement off their domination at MD last week.
Michigan played to expectations vs Purdue. i.e. Spread was -32.5 and it came down to a coin flip last minute Purdue TD at the end to cover. Nothing about that game would move the needle much, other than maybe some "JJ rust" narratives. And whatever, I don't buy any of that. JJ was the Heisman favorite going into the weekend and has been thrust into comparisons to all of the other favorites. When you watch Caleb Williams and Penix Jr. absolutely slice and dice terrible secondaries...People expect to see gaudy numbers and multiple highlight reel plays. JJ didn't have many this weekend, Williams and Penix had multiple. JJ is still JJ, i.e. a top 5 QB in CFB, arguably #1.
The other underlying factor here I wanted to highlight is an impending JH suspension, as I believe it would definitely move the line one way or the other if he's coaching, or not. I won't get into the politics of all that, but simply from a betting perspective, Vegas is certainly considering how many points is it worth to have Jim on the sidelines come Saturday.
Simplifying things: The line has moved 1.5-2.5 points in PSU's favor after this weekend. Vegas typically has a good read on things. To me, I think JH's presence and coaching on the sidelines is worth points. And to me, this line says Vegas doesn't think a JH suspension is coming this week. The line movement in PSU's favor is because they throttled MD -- I believe if Vegas felt like a JH suspension is coming, this could be down to Michigan -3/3.5.
Disclaimer: These are all opinions and NOT gambling advice. If you think you have a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Take care and Go Blue!
November 6th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
I’ll take the points, Allar won’t have a career game against Mich like he did MD… Michigan will probably win by 3 TDs
November 6th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
In that case, you'll give the points, not take them. Taking the points means betting on the underdog plus the point spread.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
I’ll lay the points. Michigan will probably win by 1 TD.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:37 PM ^
We need to win by 22 bc whiny Frames told Bruce F that the info we've got on them is worth three (lol!) scores.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^
You forgot FG Frames thinks 9 points is 3 possessions. "Brian" "Ferentz" thinks 6 points is 3 possessions, so there's that, too.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:44 PM ^
I tend to agree, but, IMO, PSU's only real chance is to let Allar throw it deep and hope a few connect for an easy TD or at least FGs or a field position flip. Given it will be at PSU and with Stalion-gate front and center I predict serious home cooking from the refs as well. Anyway, I see them coming out BGSU-style and hoping for the best. It definitely looked as if Franklin was letting Allar throw it deep a lot more vs both IU and Maryland and I see that as 100% prep for Michigan.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
Allar is a checkdown machine. Everything he does is within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and most is within 5. He does this thing where he slides up in the pocket like he's ready to throw a bomb down the middle of the field and at last second the ball weirdly comes out sideways to a RB or TE.
I don't see a path to victory for Penn State with Allar checking everything down unless Michigan somehow turns it over 4 or 5 times. If he was mobile okay but he's not so not good for PSU.
This will be a smothering 31-13
November 6th, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^
What is the hotline number to help people who willingly watch Iowa games?
November 6th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
1-800-FER-ENTZ
November 6th, 2023 at 12:04 PM ^
1-800-000-0000
November 6th, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
1-800-000-0000
Now, now, be fair. 1-800-000-0008 seems more appropriate. 2 FGs and a Safety is so very much Iowa.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
Alright, this made me lol
November 6th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^
1-800-4SICKOS
November 6th, 2023 at 12:28 PM ^
Has to be the comment of the day.
November 6th, 2023 at 3:05 PM ^
1-800-7868-669
November 6th, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^
The -7 line was the outlier. SP+ has a 5 point line.
Personally, I think people are both underrating Michigan and dramatically overrating PSU. I disagree with your take on Harbaugh being worth a couple of points against PSU -- I'm confident any of the ten coaches on staff can out-coach James Franklin.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
The reality here is not whether Harbuagh is actually worth points or not, but instead, whether the lay public thinks he is worth points or not. I absolutely think the lay public thinks he is worth points and agree with OP that if he is suspended this line drops to 3 or 3.5. That would be a pretty major swing off of 7 to start.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
If the public moves the line by that much, the sharps will have a field day.
The narrative that the books set lines to balance the money is a bit simplistic. The problem is, you can't control the future betting. In general, the books will take a lot more public money than you might think before they move the line, because they're nervous about letting the sharps come in after a line move. Not counting a response to pricing errors, sharp money tends to come in Friday or Saturday after they've gotten as much information as possible.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:41 PM ^
Yeah, it’s the dumbest thing people constantly tout. The reason it’s just plain not true is 2021 UM-OSU. 90% of the public money was on OSU to cover (think it was around -7.5 or -8 IIRC). But all week the line never moved toward OSU even tho all the majority of the money was on OSU. In fact it actually moved a 0.5-1.5 points toward UM by kickoff depending on the book. Sharps were on UM so Vegas adjusted but the public poured in even more money on OSU with a better line leading up to kickoff. Vegas made a killing of all the public joes who poured it. Sharp money moves lines, the public never does. Rather the public just constantly gets played by Vegas & the pros.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:33 PM ^
Interesting point, I was thinking about it from Vegas' perspective and not necessarily the public in trying to forecast whether Vegas has a read on whether he will coach or not. The line is UM -5 today. If news starts to leak that Harbaugh is likely going to be suspended, whether that is worth points or not, I believe Vegas would move the line. Then, as others have mentioned, between that hypothetical scenario and Saturday, the public and sharp money will determine if they think he's worth xx points. It could move to -3 and sharp bettors who got PSU +7 would LOVE to hammer it and get a middle between Michigan -3 and PSU +7
From a Michigan fan's perspective and talking about narratives, my opinion is this team really started to really take off and dominate once Harbaugh's 3-game suspension ended. We looked "ok" against UNLV, ECU and BGSU. Jim's first game back vs Rutgers...ok maybe a little rusty, still pretty dominant. But then BOOM, Nebraska, MSU, IU and Minnesota didn't even look like they belonged on the same field as us. Nebraska was the first game where I was like, wow, they could play this game a million times and I don't know that Michigan would lose once. I really felt a difference after that game.
I'm not saying that's the truth he's worth a lot of points. But in my mind that's a narrative I think is out there.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:08 PM ^
I have the same thought. Michigan got better (against better competition) when Harbaugh came back from suspension. I actually DO think that he's worth points. I think that he brings a little something extra (confidence?) to the sideline. Michigan needs him this weekend.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^
If PSU was to win this game and win out, and we were to lose here but win out, how does the tiebreaker come down in the East if we all have one loss?
November 6th, 2023 at 1:23 PM ^
IIRC, the tie-breaker would go to the East team with the highest-ranked win over a West team, so in this scenario PSU's win over Iowa would send PSU to Indy.
(apologies for the clunky wording)
November 6th, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^
My understanding, if things come down to a UM / PSU / OSU 3-way tie, the likely scenario is the tiebreak will be determined based on the cumulative record of your conference opponents. We all play the same teams in the B1G East, so those are a wash.
So you compare the final records of the teams played in the B1G West.
Michigan has played Purdue, Minnesota & Nebraska. Those teams are 12-15 combined
PSU has played Iowa, Illinois and NW: 15-12 combined
OSU has played Wisconsin, Purdue and Minnesota: 12-15 combined
PSU currently has a big advantage in a tiebreak scenario. One question I had on this, maybe someone can help: Do they look at those B1G West opponents overall records (which I reflected above), or their W/L records in B1G play only? If it's B1G play only, my numbers above are incorrect.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:39 PM ^
Big Ten play only. It looks like the tiebreakers haven't changed since 2011: https://bigten.org/news/2011/8/10/Big_Ten_Conference_Football_Divisional_Tiebreaker.aspx
Here's a recent SI article linking to it: https://www.si.com/college/pennstate/football/big-ten-football-tiebreaker-procedure-penn-state-ohio-state-michigan
November 6th, 2023 at 1:43 PM ^
Found this on SI article;
"To break a three-way division tie, the Big Ten would compare the combined conference records of the three teams' West Division opponents. Following Saturday's round of games, the Lions lead the tiebreaker race."
Then went on to say current records against the west are Penn State 8 and 10, and the other two are 7 and 11.
November 6th, 2023 at 2:04 PM ^
Thank you for clarifying! We need Wisconsin, Iowa, NW and Illinois to lose, and Nebraska to win. IIRC these teams play a lot of each other the next 3 weeks, so it's going to be very tight if it comes to this in a tiebreak scenario.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:48 PM ^
I believe the tie-breaker in that 3-way tie is each teams' West opponents' records.
EDIT: looks like a few people beat me to the reply.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
Michigan up to -6.5 for me.
I think the games each team played were ideal. Michigan got to go against shifting coverage and NFL DEs right before they face a great defense. They won handily, but still good practice.
Penn State has been terrible on offense all year and got to run up the score against a Maryland team currently in freefall. They are going to go into Saturday thinking that stuff will work and its going to get them annihilated.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:04 PM ^
I have little respect for James Franklin, but I don't think he's going to assume that his offense is suddenly extant just because they beat November Maryland. I believe their game plan is going to be to try to win 17-14.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
Oh, I'm sure they know that, but my guess is that if they had beaten Maryland 20-10, they would basically start the game in a shell and never leave it. Given they put up 51, I think they might be a little more daring than they otherwise would have been and it won't work at all.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^
Franklin sucks as an in-game coach, but I think his game planning is generally solid. It will be great if we can blow up his game plan early.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^
I think you are overrating Frame's ability to self deceive- PSU looked like Iowa against OSU and he declared, "I'm not sure if we didn't just watch two the best teams in college football" Frames- I'm sure unless your meaning of 'best" is top 15 teams in college football.
Watch Frames in interviews- he thinks his shit doesn't stink. He didn't even seemed bummed about losing to OSU, IMHO his team losing to OSU was a foregone conclusion before the game started. He really reminds me of Hoke a lot.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
27 - 17 good guys. Penn St defense is legit, but so is ours.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^
13-21 points feels about right for Penn State. They'll score more legitimate points than anyone on the rest of the schedule has, but they just don't have the weapons that Penn State has had when they've won this game (Saquon Barkley, KJ Hamler).
So it will come down to Michigan facing their best defense of the year and whether they can get to that 24 point mark or so.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
41-10 Michigan to keep in line with the season to date
go blue
November 6th, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^
Yeah 13 seems correct given they got 2 FGs and 1 TD against OSU. Michigan's defense is better than OSU's, but PSU is at home so yeah definitely in that 13-21 ball park.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
Love me some Mike Sanristil as a safety but if we could not ask him to play press corner at the end of games and halves I would be ok with this.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^
He's a nickel, not a safety, but otherwise I agree completely. :)
November 6th, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^
Old man/school football always considered the "nickel" as an extra safety however in the current game there are small/big nickels - hybrids - etc. Nickel is truly its own designation.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
So if I think the score will be, I dunno, 34-8 I should bet M and the under, right?
November 6th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
IMO, as of right now, the gambling market either does not think JH will be suspended or the impact is minimal as Michigan is the CFP winner favorite most places and significant favorites over OSU to be B1G winner.
Others may disagree, but I tend to think late line movement is more telling than early line movement, as books will accept larger and larger wagers closer to the actual event as information becomes "better" (ie injury reports). Early line movement is almost like stock market futures 30 minutes prior to market open - it means something, but the volume is low and things can quickly change when bigger money comes to the table.
I was able to get M -110 ML and -3 @ +118 back on May 28, although I wasn't able to put much on it due to the time length before the game.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:00 PM ^
That is a great point and excellent analogy. I completely agree, re: early vs late line movement.
There is also merit to this in the fact sharp bettors bet early and the public comes in later in the week. Vegas shapes lines with the help of these early bettors.
Knowing this, sharps will play cat and mouse, sometimes placing smaller "phony" bets against their actual, much larger bets, knowing they are being watched by the books and shaping lines. So if I'm a sharp, and love Michigan -4.5, I'll go ahead and put one or more smaller early week bets on PSU, expecting some movement down to -3.5, then hammer Michigan -3.5 if/when it drops later in the week. Best case scenario is I middle when the game ends and Michigan wins by 4.
Late line movement tells the truth.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:04 PM ^
What is all the hand wringing about JJ not throwing 50 tds against Purdue? That was one of his worst games of the year and excluding his own performances, it would be a top 10 performance for Michigan in the last five years.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
I don't remember the line of PSU v. Maryland but PSU couldn't have beaten the spread by 45 points since they won by 35 and were surely favored by a healthy margin.
The movement vs. Penn State was not Harbaugh related as none of the other lines moved against us - in fact, we went up +240 to +220 for the CFP and OSU dropped from +155 to +160 for the B1G Championship.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
You're right, I fudged the numbers, my mistake and thank you for pointing it out. I will correct it in the post - PSU covered by 27.5.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
i actually think the 1.5-2 points is due to JH uncertainty. If they get clarity i could see this move +/- 1-1.5 points as he is coaching or not, and the initial move is just moving to the center.
metrically speaking i dont think PSU and UM performances from the weekend really indicated a 2-3 point misvaluation of these teams. if anything maybe it means chop robinson is back or allar's downfield throwing (late vs IU) as given confidence. but i think this is primarily sign gate impact forecasting
November 6th, 2023 at 12:19 PM ^
Everything else moved in Michigan's favor so not Harbaugh related.
PSU looked better against Maryland than they have in several weeks - I don't think it goes much deeper than that.
November 6th, 2023 at 6:44 PM ^
To all of you guys who are betting on Michigan this week, the Terps say "you're welcome."
Go Blue!
November 6th, 2023 at 12:11 PM ^
I don't really care about the "yeah but Maryland stinks" line of thinking. Maryland had that game circled, and PSU crushed the spread by 45 points.
PSU was a 9-point underdog to Maryland? That can't be correct.
There is a reason why "November Maryland" is a thing. Once again the Terps are in freefall and suddenly face the possibility of missing a bowl game.