Michigan (-5) @ Penn State - Line movement & A Gambling Perspective on Current Events
Yep, another post regarding the spread for this week's Michigan @ PSU game. This stuff is a lot of fun to me, spreads do tell a story. I love trying to decipher what's going on, and trying to piece that story together from an unbiased, Vegas-wants-to-take-all-your-money lens.
Circling back on a previous thread that the spread for this weekend's game is Michigan -7 / o/u46.5. I can confirm I was on DraftKings early Saturday morning and it was UM -7. The line has indeed moved over the weekend to more of a consensus Michigan -5 / o/u44. Currently you can get UM -4.5 at BetMGM and PSU +5.5 at FanDuel. I.e. it hasn't reached a consensus yet, typical of Monday morning.
I'm not sure about the look-ahead total, but if it was 46.5 on Saturday morning, it has come down quite a bit from the look-ahead to currently o/u 44. This checks out: Totals tend to go lower when a dog starts to pick up some steam. Closer game, tighter play, lower totals.
The spread movement could be a couple of things. The obvious reason is bettors saw the PSU/Maryland game and hammered PSU +7 on Saturday. PSU looked dreadful against OSU, mediocre at home against a bad Indiana team, but then bounced back very nicely against Maryland. I don't really care about the "yeah but Maryland stinks" line of thinking. Maryland had that game circled, and PSU crushed the spread by 45 points. Definitely some line movement off their domination at MD last week.
Michigan played to expectations vs Purdue. i.e. Spread was -32.5 and it came down to a coin flip last minute Purdue TD at the end to cover. Nothing about that game would move the needle much, other than maybe some "JJ rust" narratives. And whatever, I don't buy any of that. JJ was the Heisman favorite going into the weekend and has been thrust into comparisons to all of the other favorites. When you watch Caleb Williams and Penix Jr. absolutely slice and dice terrible secondaries...People expect to see gaudy numbers and multiple highlight reel plays. JJ didn't have many this weekend, Williams and Penix had multiple. JJ is still JJ, i.e. a top 5 QB in CFB, arguably #1.
The other underlying factor here I wanted to highlight is an impending JH suspension, as I believe it would definitely move the line one way or the other if he's coaching, or not. I won't get into the politics of all that, but simply from a betting perspective, Vegas is certainly considering how many points is it worth to have Jim on the sidelines come Saturday.
Simplifying things: The line has moved 1.5-2.5 points in PSU's favor after this weekend. Vegas typically has a good read on things. To me, I think JH's presence and coaching on the sidelines is worth points. And to me, this line says Vegas doesn't think a JH suspension is coming this week. The line movement in PSU's favor is because they throttled MD -- I believe if Vegas felt like a JH suspension is coming, this could be down to Michigan -3/3.5.
Disclaimer: These are all opinions and NOT gambling advice. If you think you have a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Take care and Go Blue!
November 6th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
Two crazy things going on right now that I am watching closely: Maryland and TCU bowl eligibility.
Maryland was 5-0, against admittedly putrid competition, and is looking like they might actually finish with 7 straight losses and miss a bowl game. To be fair, I think that they will actually manage to beat either Nebraska or Rutgers and squeak into a shitty bowl game.
TCU played in the National Championship game last season and, unless they pull off a minor miracle, are going to miss a bowl game. They are currently 4-5 with games against Texas, Baylor and @Oklahoma remaining. That might be one of the biggest drops from "elite" to "suckitude" I have seen in recent memory. Of course, anyone who actually watched TCU knew that they were the luckiest team in CFB last year and probably should have only been 9-3 in the regular season.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:20 PM ^
the Sonny Dykes Effect
1 good year followed by a bunch of mediocre / bad years
November 6th, 2023 at 12:39 PM ^
Yep, my mistake. Fudged the numbers. PSU beat the spread by 27.5, not 45.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:11 PM ^
If this game was at home I could see -10 / -11 or so. I think the margin of victory for whoever will win will be 2 scores.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^
I think people have concluded (rightly or wrongly) that Michigan cannot run effectively and think a JJ v. PSU secondary at home is close to a toss up.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:13 PM ^
I'd lay the points. Allar won't have a day vs Michigan like he did vs Maryland. M's defense isn't going to let him get that comfortable. And while PSU's defense is good, they don't have the personnel to match the playmakers on M's offense. Their secondary might make it tough for the WR's, but when you factor in the TE's and Edwards, and the effect of JJ's legs, i think it's too much for PSU to fully shut down. with that reasoning in mind, I like M -5. I'm not sure I'd touch the o/u, though with the weather expected to be sunny in the high 40's with moderate wind, I could see JJ having himself a day, making the over kind of appealing. i can see a 34-13 or 34-17 kind of game (in favor of the good guys).
November 6th, 2023 at 12:16 PM ^
I feel like it might be likely that gamblers tend to overbet the homefield advantage at Happy Valley.
Weather looks pretty good, which helps Michigan I would think.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^
And since JJ took over Michigan is 6-1 vs the spread in road games. Only exception was Indiana last year, but M still won by 21 as a 23.5 point favorite
November 6th, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
On the coaching side - and 'in game' decisions, I'll choose Harbaugh over Franklin seven days a week.
I think of the Illinois - Michigan game last year (in Ann Arbor) - and, kicking FG's to position Michigan for a win. And, contrast that with Franklin - in Columbus earlier this year - in a one score game - and going for it on a fourth and 3. That's all I need to see - period.
Now - would Moore / Minter be a good HC combination for Michigan, should something go awry? I think yes. However, with all due respect to them - Harbaugh has more experience - and, has dealt with more "in game" decisions than either of them.
I like Jim coaching the squad - and, hope he'll be Michigan's head coach for a very, very long time.
And, though - IMO - there was a bit of a lull in Michigan's offense in the second / third quarters on Saturday against Purdue. I like Michigan's chances in their three remaining regular season conference games.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^
Remember 2 years ago Franklin tried a fake FG on Michigan in the 1st quarter I believe and that backfired. He tries dumb shit at the worst times.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:30 PM ^
I'm still pissed they gave up that garbage TD to purdue. Would have covered the 32. All that with JJ having a really rough game.
I think Michigan beats psu by 7.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:32 PM ^
If Harbaugh gets suspended, it will probably drop to -2 or -3.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^
The ~2 pt move makes sense to me, it was the first time Allar has looked like he can do anything other than throw 5 yard screen passes.
I'm taking Michigan all day. I think it's more likely that was an outlier game for him and the PSU offense than a 'the-lightbulb-went-on' moment that transforms him going forward.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^
I am smelling Judgement Day 1997
November 6th, 2023 at 12:54 PM ^
That was a brutal hit - I was watching in a mixed PSU/Michigan bar and the Mich fans erupted but then the whole place went quiet.
What a game it was though.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^
Great game; wrong image to use from that game.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
"Vegas Zone" spread ---- for those who subscribe to that particular Bill Simmons theory:
- 3 and 7 are key numbers that a lot of games land on, and it's a number that's hard to move off of.
- 4 and 6 are similar but less so.
- 5 --- well, even the bookmakers aren't quite sure what to do with it.
(I think that theory holds more water in the NFL, where you don't get quite as many wonky scores and 2-point conversions and such as you do in college. NFL games finish with 3 or 7 point margins more often than college games do)
-----
FWIW, I know there was a thread here yesterday about a 7-point spread, I even responded to it. But I don't think that was a number for very long, if at all. All the sites I see with line movement mainly max at 5.5.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
Yeah, the -7 thing seemed to be one book going out on a limb, perhaps as much as an advertising move as anything else. It's rare to see anybody opening both (a) that out of line with everybody else and (b) also out of line with SP+.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
A few books always like to get numbers out on Saturday night - as you said, it's an advertising move. But I find it an interesting dynamic with the increased visibility of SP+ and FEI.
Those numbers don't come out until mid-day Sunday (or Monday with FEI, though Brian was fast this week). SP+ and FEI aren't gospel, and the books have their own proprietary models, of course, but putting out a line too early risks being out-of-step with the publicly available metrics.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:44 PM ^
Thanks for the advice! (Removes tongue from cheek) That’s juicy though. I’d think Franklin being on the sideline would be a bigger detriment than Harbaugh not being on the sideline. M 33 psu 13
November 6th, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
Really hard to quantify the value of a coach. Part of me remembers that Michigan failed to cover in any of the 3 games JH was suspended earlier in the year and almost immediately started beating superior opponents badly when he returned.
But the other part of me realizes it was non conference season against 3 teams we were in no danger of even being threatened by and Michigan was swapping players in and out at several position groups as part of “preseason” evaluation to determine starters.
I’m sure Harbaugh is worth some points and against a top 10 team on the road you need all the points you can get, but I also don’t see Michigan being significantly worse without him coaching in the actual game (while gameplanning and running practices all week)
November 6th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
Interesting, even -7 seems low. Let's be honest, PSU defense is really good, but that offense is no where near the 50 pts they scored against MD. Our offense maybe scores 24 against them straight up, but I also see our defense get a pick-6 and potentially 1-2 turnovers providing great field position. Realistic score is 31-16, with a sad FG in the final minute of the game.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
If you said tl;dr, your main takeaway is this:
If you think you have a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:13 PM ^
Few people understand that the point of a betting line is to get even money on both sides. The bookie is not predicting results, just trying to establish a number that will even out the bets, so, in reality, the line is established by the betting public, 50%+ of whom are wrong. Las Vegas casinos were not built on large payouts to gamblers.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:30 PM ^
There's a reason that few people understand that -- it's not true. At best, it's an idealized scenario. The online books can do this to some extent, because they've started limiting the maximum action they'll allow to people based upon their play, which is generally illegal under Nevada law. You can hope to get even money on both sides, but the problem is that the sharps are waiting in the weeds with much larger bankrolls than most of the public.
Every week, you can read a piece about how the sportsbooks did. They'll always talk about one result that the books needed that they got, or one that they needed that they didn't get. Here's an example from Week 2 of this year's college football season / week 1 of the NFL: https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2023-odds-sportsbooks-win-big-in-nfl-week-1-thanks-to-unlikely-underdogs
The fact of the matter is that the Vegas lines are (a) statistically the most reliable indicator of the final outcome; (b) still have a large mean absolute error; and (c) still sometimes results in huge wins or losses for the casino (in the short term) because of the size of the bets that they're willing to take.
November 6th, 2023 at 2:00 PM ^
Correct. It's also easy to see this in action when you look at publicly available side/money splits for each game.
An example...trying to remember the exact game from this last weekend...I think it was Texas vs K State. That line opened Texas -3.5, moved up to Texas -4/4.5 mid week, then landed on Texas -3.5 at game time.
Something like 80%+ of the volume of bets was on Texas, as was the money, all week and at close. If Vegas was like, oh shoot, we need to balance this thing out! They'd have two problems: 1) They move the line to something like Texas -6. There's no guarantee people are going to start taking K-State. How far would they have to move it to convince people to start betting K-State? This now opens the door to...
2) Sharps love middling bets. If a bunch of sharp money is already on Texas -3.5, and now they're being offered K-State +6 because nobody is taking K-State at 3.5 and 4.5, they'll hammer K-State +6. If Texas wins by 4 or 5, the sharps cash both sides. If Texas wins by 6, they cash the original Texas bet and push on K-State. If I am remembering that all correctly, and that was the game I'm thinking of, obviously Vegas took a big loss as K-State lost by 3 and covered.
Another good example might be the Georgia vs Missouri game from last weekend. Everyone I talked to said Georgia at home is going to KILL Missouri. But that line opened UGA -15.5 and only moved in Mizzou's favor (which is why I took Mizzou). There had to have been a lot of sharp money on Mizzou. I don't have the numbers, but my guess is the betting volume was very heavy on UGA, and the money was either on Mizzou, or closer to 50/50.
November 6th, 2023 at 2:04 PM ^
i don't really follow this stuff, but in addition to a very good game by penn state saturday, the o/u might have slipped because Michigan seemed a bit off when everyone expected them to come out and drop 70 on the haters.
oh what a wonderful world it is that 41 points is seen as a disappointment!
we spent YEARS just begging harbaugh's teams to put a few more points on the board to complement their stellar D
November 6th, 2023 at 2:31 PM ^
Damn. I don't partake in gambling but I feel like I should bet the house on UM -5.
November 6th, 2023 at 2:32 PM ^
If JH is suspended for the PSU game, could he then identify as James Franklin and still coach? Then OG James Franklin and JH as James Franklin could both coach Michigan to victory on Saturday with the past in-game coaching mistakes of OG James Franklin, and with JH actually having in-game coaching prowess?!?!
November 6th, 2023 at 2:34 PM ^
The look ahead spread for the game when I checked it 2 weeks ago was Mich -5 or 5.5, I hadn't noticed that it had gone up to 7, but apparently now it has come down to 5 again, PSU has played us much tougher at PSU historically so given that they are 8-1 and a top 10 or 11 team, the number to me, gives a lot of credence to Mich's strength.
By the way, when I checked it 2 weeks ago the OSU spread was also Mich -5. Comparatively little money is bet 2 weeks or more ahead of a game, so the spread can definitely fluctuate once they see how the money is coming in, also of course considering injuries and weather.
November 6th, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
If Harbaugh is suspended, the line will drop to UM -2.5 or 3. Franklin is a bad in-game coach and if he’s suspended, the line will drop to -1.5 or 2. Just kidding. I think Michigan covers anything less than ten, but I also like the under. I don’t see PSU scoring much.
November 6th, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
I'm going to push back on your assertation the line moved 1.5-2 points. This almost certainly has nothing to do with Harbaugh (and is probably more points than he's worth to the market).
The DraftKings line of -7 on Saturday is considered a lookahead line. These lines have very low limits and aren't considered "sharp" lines because of the low limits. Once the games start Saturday, the lookahead lines go away until Sunday when the week's matchups "open" on the sportsbooks.
These days, most sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, MGM, etc.) don't actually come up with opening lines themselves. Circa Sports in Vegas is one of the few that does. They release their "openers" on Sunday with higher limits. The other sportsbooks typically follow their lead on the opening lines and move them based on bets they receive, movement at other books, etc.
Circa opened with us at -5. The other books followed suit.
TLDR: The difference is based on slight differences of opinion at different sportsbooks, not any Harbaugh news.
November 6th, 2023 at 4:36 PM ^
I'm guessing that Allar having his best game as a college QB against Maryland (25-34, 240 yds, 4 TD) is what moved the lines. OTOH, not sure how you can much you really take from that game since (as was pointed out on the Around the Big 10 segment with Jaime Mac) the big issue with Allar has always been his inability to handle pressure and Maryland has no DL.