Honest Question re: Juwan Howard and the basketball program

Juwan doesn't have a decade plus track record like Harbaugh did. Harbaugh took over a talented but directionless program. Took us to the brink of the playoffs and just couldn't beat OSU. Had the obviously disastrous covid season. Juwan does have a conference title, but that was only his second season with a veteran roster that was half inherited from the greatest basketball coach in program history. 

The things that Juwan needs to do to turn things around - roster management and clear organizational structure with everyone moving in the same direction - are things that he has struggled with and have led to our current circumstances. There's also the fact that it is uncertain who we would have turned to for the football program. If Harbaugh couldn't do it, then who could? There are lots of potential options for basketball. 

I actually really like and respect Juwan's Xs and Os and most of his in game coaching. It's the other stuff that college coaches have to do that he's struggled with. And he's had a veteran HC at his right hand his entire tenure here, so I'm not sure what he could do to give me confidence he can turn it around. 

Well, obligatory “Fire Warde”.

Now that that’s out of the way, Harbaugh really went out of his way to change his staff, their schemes, and refocusing their goals by really getting his players to buy-in, if you will.

Howard has just this season, kept most of his staff, has continued to bumble in-game situations while crumbling in most 2nd-halves, and seems to have lost his locker room by putting players down.

This is not an upward trajectory and I think we can all agree the team just seems lost as does Howard. 

What do your dishonest questions look like?

Jim never imploded his own roster. Don't give me the Howard got handcuffed by admissions BS. After 1, maybe 2 denied admissions he should have started to identify realistic transfer targets, not just the top kids in the nation and hope their transcript is good enough. He has handicapped himself by not targeting the right guys. Jim never lost his team, clearly Howard has, in my experience there is no turning back once the culture erodes. Time to find our next John Beilein who will stabilize a roster, teach fundamentally sound basketball, and install a culture that appeals to outsiders.

Interesting video from someone who closely follows Michigan

I think the main point is that Harbaugh had one genuinely underwhelming season — and even that came during COVID, with all of that attendant weirdness.

This is now the third straight disappointing season for Juwan, each one worse than the one before it. That's very different.

I think only the most rabid fans — if any — were demanding Juwan be fired two years ago at this point. But at some point, surely, circumstances will call for it. Maybe that's now, maybe not. But how long do you let your team linger in last place, losing to teams like McNeese State and Central Michigan, before you replace the coach?

Probably the slow burn decline that basketball has evinced - each year since 2020-2021 has been measurably worse than the one that preceded it.  Football had the frustration of getting blown out by OSU in 2018 and 2019 (not to mention bowl game futility), but they were winning 8-10 games every year.  The trend prior to 2020 was 10, 10, 8, 10, 9.  So it was easier to see 2020 as a fluke, even if you were of the opinion that the non-2020 years weren't good enough.  You had a consistent baseline.  

OTOH, basketball outcomes have declined in measurable terms.  They've gone Elite 8, Sweet 16 (and a bit of a fluky one), NIT, and now almost certainly won't make ANY post-season play.  Where's the trend pointing?  What's the theory of turning this ship around?  

To name a few:

Harbaugh had a long track record of success at every single place he coached. This is Juwan's first head coaching job.

Outside of the COVID year, Harbaugh's teams weren't bad rather they did not meet expectations and failed against our rivals. In 2019, they were 9-3 with losses to Wisco, PSU and OSU. And to essentially be James Franklin, he was one of the highest paid coaches in the country. That is where most of the noise came from - paying all this money to not be able to beat (or even compete) with OSU and only win the games against lessor teams and not upset anyone better.

Michigan basketball didn't make the NCAA tournament last year and cratered this year. The issues that were apparent last year (e.g., choking at the end of games) are the same issues that are still there this year. 

2020 was the covid year.  While it was football's worst year, it was Juwan's best year.  Ultimately it wasn't a real year in any sport.

Michigan basketball right now is completely lost.  There is zero roster depth.  The coach has to know after seeing it time and time again the type of players guaranteed admission and guaranteed denial.

This is on Howard -- both the lack of in-game adjustments and the roster construction in general.  He set us up to be last in the big ten, and that's really just unacceptable.

It was very easy to write off 2020 as not a real season. There were many special cause events that year that would indicate the results aren't predictive of the future.

For basketball, this is just another season like all the others. There is nothing special about this season that would excuse the poor roster management or lack of desire in the players.

With Harbaugh there was a record of continued high level success, albeit with the lack of success vs OSU.

For Howard every season has gotten worse in some manner. It's much the same situation as with Hoke. A great first year with someone else's players, and then a step back every single year, concluding in a season full of comical errors. 

It's not so much the record this season that's the problem, it's the trajectory and the total lack of any cohesive plan. The team is a total mess and there is no clear way to fix it. 

The main problem in 2020 was our defense. Harbaugh could point to Brown and say I have a good way to fix this problem. What can Howard do to turn this shit show around? We suck on D, we can't shoot, we can't rebound. It's not a single problem that needs fixing, it's the entire team. 

In 2020 COVID wrecked us. Regardless, Jim still had to practically clean house and rebuild the staff.

Juwan just doesn’t have any excuses like that. If his teams were mediocre I would buy the transfer excuses and the health excuses and whatnot. They are not mediocre, they are terrible despite having some real physical talent on the squad.

His teams consistently play below their talent level and it has just gotten worse every year. He’s not good at developing players.

Harbaugh did a lot prior to the Covid (2020) season.  He was not able to defeat OSU which was the challenge.  And, one could easily argue that Michigan did defeat OSU in 2016 - because of hte "spot".  

Football was a dumpster fire prior to Harbaugh taking over - basketball was not.

I love Michigan - I like Juwan - changes need to be made, and significant changes.   A long conversation needs to be had to determine the path forward.

Basketball has a much smaller roster - and "one & dones" are unfortunately part of the basketball landscape which don't impact football.  Yes - portal transfers have an impact, but leaving after one year for the League - don't (in football).    Juwan has struggled, IMO, to manage the roster and have the blend of talent required to put a competitive team with depth on the floor.

I'm dyed in the wool Maize & Blue and want Michigan / Juwan to succeed.   Juwan loves the program and has had to deal with a health issue this season - it's not easy.

If you look back a bit in history - there was another Michigan head coach who was great as a player - but didn't perform as well as hoped for as head coach.   That individual was - Bump Elliott who led the football team prior to Schembechler being hired.   Will history repeat.

I agree with you and am more patient with the basketball program. He's a first time head coach and needs to figure things out. He hasn't yet. That doesn't mean I'll be watching them lose week-in week-out though. I have other things to do than watch that mess.