Four Ten Win Seasons in Five Years
Was just staring at Jim's record and thinking about history. He's in his fifth season here, and already has three ten-win seasons. Let's say--for argument's sake--that Michigan loses to OSU but wins the rest of its regular-season games and bowl in '19-'20. NOT a foregone conclusion, but a not unreasonable supposition.
If Michigan has won ten games in four of Harbaugh's five first seasons is there any reason at all to say he hasn't been successful? Does history look down on mgoblog and conclude that the hysteria here was anything more than myopic, especially given a corrupt and commercialized sport in which the university struggled to maintain some modicum of probity and sanity? Five seasons on and four ten-win seasons behind him--would there be some serious basis for complaint other than 'not beating OSU'?
Yes, this is a speculative exercise.
October 28th, 2019 at 9:32 AM ^
Except OSU was littered with NFL players in the mid 90s, came into the game 9-0-1, 11-0, and 10-0 in 93, 95, and 96.
October 28th, 2019 at 9:54 AM ^
Right, and when JH comes into The Game with zero losses and loses to a 7-4 OSU squad consistently, let me know.
October 28th, 2019 at 11:19 AM ^
I read this as Bo sucked during the season but beat OSU?
October 28th, 2019 at 11:24 AM ^
The era we're talking about featured Gary Moeller and Lloyd Carr, not Bo.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
This 100% supports, rather than contradicts, the statement to which you are replying. He is saying that Michigan was actually worse relative to OSU during the Cooper eras than Michigan is to Ohio now.
That is to say, he's refuting the Cooper == Harbaugh analogy behind their records against the respective rival. Michigan was inexplicably beating Cooper's undefeated, NFL-laden teams. There's nothing inexplicable about OSU's success against us the last 5 years, by comparison.
October 28th, 2019 at 12:01 PM ^
Yes, but it also contradicts that we shouldnt expect to beat them in their current condition.
October 28th, 2019 at 9:23 AM ^
Unfortunately for Harbaugh, a failed season is anything that is not at least a Big Ten Championship. Yes; I know when we last won one -- we have had many failed seasons of late.
October 28th, 2019 at 9:29 AM ^
If your metric for success is being undefeated and/or making the CFP, then no.
if your metric for success is winning the B1G, then no.
if your metric for success is beating Ohio State, then no.
if your metric for success is winning most of our games then yes.
im much more concerned about treading water, trending up or trending down as a program. After 2016 it’s felt a little like we were treading water as a program and the Gattis hire seemed like it could have us trending up. That didn’t seem the case for the first half of the year however which was disappointing. If we beat the teams on our schedule the rest of the year, are in a competitive game with OSU, and win a bowl that seems like we are trending up. If we continue to close out the 2020 class at positions of need with talent and 2021 looks like the JJ McCarthy high four star and five star show, that’s trending up.
Harbaugh brought the program back from a bad place to being a top 20 or top 15 team annually. Will we tread water there or trend up to top 10 or top 5? That’s the question that matters to me
October 28th, 2019 at 9:31 AM ^
I think Ace mentioned it in a pod or preview post earlier this year, but the Harbaugh era feels much different with even one win over Ohio State. As of now, the feeling of hopelessness come late November is hard to shake. You know what’s waiting at the end of the season and it’s hard to think it won’t derail even the best season until we get over that hump. Whether that’s fair or not is debatable considering OSU is basically Bama/Clemson right now.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:00 AM ^
The felony larceny in 2016 is, all things considered, a reality-altering moment. The timeline in which that goes differently is the one that he keeps getting compared to. But I think that he's doing well despite it. Having to deal with the ridiculous narrative (to which even his "fan"base contributes) is also no small obstacle.
October 28th, 2019 at 9:41 AM ^
He has been successful but the detractors and critics nationally focus on the his record against his rivals because it is(in Harbaugh's own words) low hanging fruit. It's easy to do so, but I honestly believe he starts to change that narrative this year. With another MSU win coming this year( I know Dantonio will have them ready to play) but their offense is abysmal. OSU has to play PSU prior to coming to AA. That's a tall task for OSU to beat them and turn around and play us the following week on the road. If we see the same intensity from our team like we did Saturday night, I like our chances. OSU tends to start a little slow against better competition. We have yet to see Fields rattled or hit enough to make a mistake and our defense is playing well enough to do this. We just have to come ready to play and play to win. probably overly optimistic right now, but after the beatdown in The Big House this weekend I am very excited about the next few weeks.
October 28th, 2019 at 9:41 AM ^
I would say that since the college football playoffs started, there is a huge gap between being a top 5 team and a top 10 team. At least it feels that way.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:09 AM ^
You can be a perennial top-10 team and never sniff the CFP, which is the big difference. What that means is that you're a team who is 1-or-less losses going into November, and losing a late one to get shut out of your conference championship, which translates into an "Also-Ran" Bowl, no conference championship, and no playoff berth...
...Which feels far less satisfying than 20 years ago when you could lose a late-season game, split a conference championship on record alone (or win it outright despite a head-to-head loss), and go to a "Prestigious" NY-day bowl.
October 28th, 2019 at 9:43 AM ^
Yes, the reasons to say he has not been successful are:
- No B1G championship (or even division)
- No CFP appearance
- No wins over OSU
Does that mean we should fire him? Not yet, IMO. But just getting to 10 wins isn’t enough.
October 28th, 2019 at 9:54 AM ^
Hell, I think most people wouldn’t complain all that much about no playoffs or even no conference championships if Harbaugh just beat Ohio State at least once every three years. That, for me, is the most frustrating part of his tenure. I suspect he may see it that way too.
October 28th, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^
Probably. That wouldn't do it for me. If we were winning the B1G and beating OSU every three years, and still didn't make the CFP, I'd feel better. And the reality is that if we're beating OSU, the other two probably take care of themselves.
The trouble with this board (and people today in general) is that there is no room for middle ground. Harbaugh has been okay. He has failed some key metrics (beyond the three discussed, I'd add QB play, developing superstars, and an offensive identity) but has brought the program back to respectability. It's okay to think he's doing well but not good enough.
October 28th, 2019 at 12:33 PM ^
Hard to say that the trouble with this board is that there is no middle ground - when you are suggesting that a coach who could potentially go 49-16 in 5 seasons is, "doing well but not good enough." Pot, meet kettle.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but man.
October 28th, 2019 at 5:53 PM ^
What are Harbaugh's stated goals for the program?
He's not achieving the goals he's setting, and he's setting the right goals. It's pretty much the definition of middle ground to say "he's not achieving the goals for the program that he set, but I don't think we should fire him."
I like Harbuagh and hope he succeeds. But no one should remain the coach at Michigan if they can't beat OSU and win the B1G at least every few years.
October 28th, 2019 at 9:51 AM ^
I think he’s been successful with what he has dealt with. We can always get worse - look at the RR and Hoke years - I’m happy we are winning games we should win. I think transforming the offense to a modern day offense is difficult - we can’t go back to Bo football. Look at how OSU transformed by modernizing their offense. I think the spread attracts athletes. If we fire the coaches there is no guarantees we’d be better - the grass is always greener on the other side. Now if we had the same athletes OSU has - then we lose then it’s on coaching staff.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:11 AM ^
I love Jim Harbaugh and having him as coach. While I would like Michigan to have won some of the big ones under him, the fact that they didn't aren't "complaints" for me. It's part of sports, and the last thing I want this program to be is Alabama.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:13 AM ^
10 wins in 4 out of 5 years is definitely a success.
Two NY6 bowl appearances is a success.
Great record at home is a success.
Curb stomping a top 10 ranked ND on prime time is a huge success. That was really impressive and no one saw it coming.
MSU has become a shell of what it was 5 years ago. A lot of that can be attributed to Harbaugh. A win this year would be the kiss of death to MSU’s program. That is success.
No wins over OSU and no championships is a failure. Harbaugh has checked a lot of boxes, just not these. He’s been painfully close. It will be very sweet once he accomplishes it. And he will accomplish it.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:20 AM ^
If Harbaugh were 1-3 instead of 0-4 against Ohio State, you would have a point.
The main thing for any Michigan coach to to is to beat Ohio State...if you can and do beat Ohio State, chances are you will have won 10 games.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:24 AM ^
Ten win seasons are nothing to scoff at, especially considering where this program came from prior to now. But the context of the entire season has to be taken into account.
He hasn’t beaten OSU yet. Not once. I definitely give him a mulligan for 2015 as that was his first team, but he let 2016 and 2017 slip right through his fingers, and then last year.....sheesh, I don't know how to explain that other than OSU was just flat out better.
Beating these guys is bullet point numero uno of his job description, regardless of the talent disparity between the two programs, regardless of Meyer having been there. Regardless of how many All-Americans they have playing for them. We’re not leaving the conference and OSU isn’t closing up shop on it’s football team. Their recruiting prowress isn't going away, and them being the only P5 school in one of the most talent-rich states in America isn't going away either. They will be on our schedule every single year, and you can't just wait these guys out for a possible window to open up. So you have to find a way to deal with all of this and get over the hump anyway. Not every year. Hell, maybe not even every other year. But it’s still got to happen on at least an occasional basis. That’s the measuring stick here.
So has he been successful? Yes. But a lot of what he’s accomplished so far feels a tad hollow. I don’t want him gone, but he’s still got more to do here. And I’m sure he’d be the first to tell you that.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
He is definitely being very successful it’s just that he’s dealing with an ascendant OSU. This game this year is a lot to play for. Win this game and it introduces doubt. Going forward Michigan teams could be like this isn’t Urban Meyer we’re dealing with. Completely changes the narrative even if we don’t ultimately end up in Indianapolis. It would be impressive to get to 10 wins in 4 out of 5 years no doubt about it. Hopefully he can take the next step and beat OSU also.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:32 AM ^
If we are 9-3 heading into the bowl game are we going to have enough guys playing to win the game? Or will we get hit with guys sitting out to prepare for the draft?
But assuming we win out except for OSU Harbaugh would be:
48-17 overall
32-12 in the conference
4-8 against ND, MSU, and OSU
Pretty good, but dang he needs to beat OSU at somepoint or else he is just our John Cooper.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
John Cooper's OSU teams often had better records than Michigan but still lost.
The problem now is that OSU isn't really losing to anyone, outside of the occasional midseason brain fart upset. They have four conference losses in the last eight years.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
You make a great point, one which has been lost on Michigan fans.
OSU was the better overall program in the 90s. Michigan just found ways to beat them, and Michigan State even did it once when OSU was #1 and unbeaten.
Tressel established that they would no longer be in that position, and built a fence around Ohio in terms of recruiting.
NOW they are the better program and they beat Michigan.
And Harbaugh was NOT brought here to go 10-3 and lose to them all the time.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:33 AM ^
That would be very in line with our historical standards, especially from the 1980s onward. (In the 1970s we were better still, but that was the era of the "Big Two and Little Eight" and 105 scholarships per team...)
The one way in which it wouldn't be in line would be the OSU record - but we've never had to deal with an OSU program quite like the one of the 2010s.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^
Yes. No playoff appearances, no conference championships, not even a division championship in five years. 0-5 against OSU, abyssmal performances in bowl games, and utter failure to develop a championship-level QB.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^
I do not think history will look at Mgoblog at all.
But again--no one is saying, I think--and I know I am not--that Harbaugh is not successful here. But is this what we all thought would be happening in Year 5???
I think that is a legitimate question, and it is legitimate to criticize if the expectations were and are higher (and they ARE).
Also, Jim Harbaugh has about 10 million reasons a year not to have to be constantly defended.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:44 AM ^
The Harbaugh cultists were predicting national championship participation, even winning, by this point in his tenure. He’s not even close to winning his division yet.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:57 AM ^
Not close is just not correct, two plays (against OSU in 2016 and Maryland was one play away from beating OSU last year that would have given UM the division) away from two division titles. He has also gone into the OSU game with the division title at stake 3 years out of 5. I wouldn't disagree some were predicting that by year 5, but saying he hasn't come close to winning the division is just factually wrong.
October 28th, 2019 at 11:01 AM ^
"He has also gone into the OSU game with the division title at stake 3 years out of 5"
Which is a good point to make. Without this stupid divisional alignment, these games would have been more than de facto conference championship games; they would have been actual BTCCGs.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
If we look at just this year, Harbaugh made a move at OC that he thought was needed long term and you can argue potentially sacrificed this year to do it. We all were hoping the best case outcome would occur and the new first year OC and offense would be gelling by game 3 or 4, I would argue that was not the likely outcome and the offense gelling by game 6 or so was more likely, which looks like what is happening. So to me if they can build on it, create a mix of the old power stuff, with the new speed in space added in that is a very good base for the future. So given the circumstances I would say 10 wins would be a good year, even more so if they can put up at least fight against OSU.
So my short answer would be yes 10 wins in 4 out of 5 years would be successful, maybe not as successful as we were hoping, but still successful to some degree. I think the idea of he isn't where we were hoping in year 5 coming in here and still being successful can coexist. He has got UM back to solid program status after they were in the wilderness. Just have to get over the hump to the next level, but a performance like Saturday gives me hope they can get there.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:57 AM ^
Successful yes, but satisfied no. Would like the program to average 10 wins in the regular season, eventually get on track to have a 50/50 record with OSU and win a B1G title occasionally. Icing on the cake would be making the CFP and being competitive at that level.
We have a lot of ground to make up on OSU ... their recruiting head start achieved during the RR/Hoke demise has hampered Harbaugh's ability to get the program to the next level. Beating OSU at least 50% of the time is necessary to get over that hump.
To follow this gap I track it from the 247 site under College Football Team Talent Composite (national ranking). The last five year comparison:
- 2019 OSU #2 / UM #11
- 2018 OSU #1 / UM #8
- 2017 OSU #2 / UM #7
- 2016 OSU #5 / UM #8
- 2015 OSU #3 / UM #9
We need to get better recruits to catch OSU. This year's OSU team has 13 elite 5-star guys compared to UM's 4 elite 5-stars (2 of which are true frosh). We end up with too many mismatches on game day. Heck even one guy like Hamler at PSU is difficult for our DB composition to consistently cover.
October 28th, 2019 at 8:38 PM ^
Thinking that Michigan can get back to anything more than 4 wins out of every ten vs the OSU football factory shows how delusional this fan base has become. Alabama would be happy going 5-5 against OSU over the course of a 10 game home and home. Where do U-M fans get off thinking they should/could do the same? Best case scenario: Win three games out of every five home games and win one out of very five in Columbus. That’s four wins out of ten. That would be absolutely amazing against an elite program like OSU.
October 28th, 2019 at 11:31 AM ^
I think there is a good shot at 10 - 3 this year. I also think that going 10 - 3 in four out of five years is great.
Don't forget, a number of those Big Ten Championships that Bo and Lloyd won were co-championships (Gary won two outright). A Big Ten co-championship does not exist anymore, so that makes it harder to get one.
I agree that guys sitting out bowl games is weak. However, Bo's record in bowl games was bad and we all still love him.
Finally, as has been noted before, there is currently huge space between the top three college teams (Alabama, Clemson and OSU) and the rest of the teams. We happen to be stuck in a division with one of those teams and have them as a rival.
I like Jimmy's devotion to Michigan and his connection to Bo. 10 - 3 is great and the OSU wins and bowl games will eventually take care of themselves.
October 28th, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^
Knock on wood three times!
October 28th, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^
I'm going to expand a bit beyond the original post. If Michigan goes 11-2 or 10-3 this year (the latter being more realistic), they will have 4 seasons in the past 5 where they've won at least 10 games. The last time that a Michigan team completed this feat was the '76 thru '80 seasons, where Bo went 10-2, 4 out of 5 seasons. Michigan won the B1G and went to the Rose Bowl in all of those 4 seasons.
When Michigan fans and critics talk about bring Michigan back, this is the era they are speaking about. Harbaugh is on the cusp of doing something that this program hasn't seen in 40+ years and there are still folks in the media and in this fan base that want to replace him.
It is frustrating that wins against tOSU and B1G titles haven't accompanied the winning that Harbaugh has brought back to AA - no arguments here. But you cannot deny that JH has brought this program back to the levels of consistent winning it enjoyed for decades before RR and Hoke got to campus.
October 28th, 2019 at 12:23 PM ^
Agreed - those Bo years were elite. We beat OSU, won titles and often were ranked in the top 5 of college football. And there were very few cupcakes on the schedule back in those days. The non-conference opponents during that Bo era were: Notre Dame, Stanford, Navy, Wake Forest, Duke, Arizona, Texas A&M, Cal, Kansas. There was no Bowling Green, Western Michigan, Ball State, Hawaii, MTSU, etc. Those cupcakes inflate the modern day records a bit in comparison and also the bowl opponent for Bo was always a top 5 team like USC.
So 10-3 by Harbaugh would not match up to Bo's 10-2 teams from that era. But we are gaining on it and MUCH closer than under the RR/Hoke debacle. Can we catch those elite teams ? Yes, but we need some big recruiting wins over the next few years to match today's elite team composition.
- #1 Alabama 5-star / 4-star / 3-star = 11 / 58 / 13
- #2 OSU 5-star / 4-star / 3-star = 13 / 47 / 25
- #11 Michigan 5-star / 4-star / 3-star = 4 / 36 / 38
October 28th, 2019 at 1:59 PM ^
Yes a success.
October 28th, 2019 at 3:16 PM ^
I’m feeling great about the team and fully back on the Harbaugh train, but can we stop with this shit.
10 wins doesn’t mean the same as it used to, what with 1 extra game and adding Rutgers + Maryland to the schedule.
Sure, winning the conference is much harder now than it used to be, and OSU is a peak juggernaut. But beating OSU and winning the big ten are by far the two most important metrics of a “successful” season.
October 28th, 2019 at 3:20 PM ^
It's successful... Everyone here knows it is. Is there some sort of collective amnesia where people don't remember the RR/Hoke years? It can definitely get worse.
October 28th, 2019 at 5:45 PM ^
The record is good but to be successful at Michigan you have to win the game against OSU.
as of right now, as crappy as it was at times, Hoke has more of a coaching legacy than Harbaugh at Michigan. He beat MSU, he beat ND, he beat OSU, won a BCS bowl game, had an 11 win season and was part of the coaching staff for the 97 team.
Do not get me wrong, Harbaugh brought Michigan back to being relevant and I would take Harbaugh over many coaches. He is a good coach, and will be successful if he continues being the coach, I fully believe that.
4 - 10 win seasons is good, but earn that last big win, making it a great season....get it done and beat OSU!!!!
go blue! I fully support and appreciate this team, the coaching staff and most fans.
October 29th, 2019 at 12:08 AM ^
1.No division titles (spare me the “co” BS)
2.Lackluster bowl performances
3. November meltdowns
4. Continue to lag behind OSU (recruiting and talent development)
5. not an elite program, just a good one
6. can’t sniff the playoffs let alone compete with the truly elite teams.
7. No conference titles
8. We still get steamrolled once a year
9. The “QB whisperer” still hasn’t whispered
10 wins bring an air of respectability which seems to be enough for many, including trustees.
yay, we’re a good program and can tell everyone it because we are such sticklers in admissions!