ESPN+: Ranking all time cfp bids
40. 2015 Michigan State (12-2)
39. 2019 Oklahoma (12-2)
38. 2020 Notre Dame (10-2)
37. 2014 Florida State (13-1)
36. 2018 Notre Dame (12-1)
35. 2021 Cincinnati (13-1)
34. 2018 Oklahoma (12-2)
33. 2015 Oklahoma (11-2)
32. 2016 Ohio State (11-2)
31. 2023 Alabama (12-1)
30. 2017 Clemson (12-2)
29. 2021 Michigan (12-2)
28. 2022 TCU (12-1)
27. 2023 Texas (12-1)
26. 2023 Washington (13-0)
25. 2016 Washington (12-2)
24. 2017 Oklahoma (12-2)
23. 2022 Ohio State (11-1)
22. 2020 Clemson (10-2)
21. 2022 Michigan (13-0)
20. 2014 Oregon (13-2)
19. 2014 Alabama (12-2)
18. 2015 Clemson (14-1)
17. 2017 Georgia (13-2)
16. 2020 Ohio State (7-1)
15. 2021 Alabama (13-2)
14. 2016 Alabama (14-1)
13. 2019 Ohio State (13-1)
12. 2019 Clemson (14-1)
11. 2015 Alabama (14-1)
10. 2016 Clemson (14-1)
9. 2014 Ohio State (14-1)
8. 2018 Alabama (14-1)
7. 2017 Alabama (13-1)
6. 2023 Michigan (13-0)
5. 2021 Georgia (14-1)
4. 2018 Clemson (15-0)
3. 2022 Georgia (13-0)
2. 2019 LSU (15-0)
1. 2020 Alabama (13-0)
December 5th, 2023 at 6:18 PM ^
This list is interesting but inconsistent. 2021 Michigan is listed as having 2 losses while 2022 Michigan is listed as having 0. Makes you wonder if ESPN put any effort into it. They at least got #40 right…
December 5th, 2023 at 6:33 PM ^
It’s Bill Connelly, who does not talk out his ass. SP+ is his baby, and SP+ is the basis for this list.
SP+ does not fully correlate with wins and losses either; it’s possible for a team’s rating to go DOWN if they have an unimpressive or fluky win, or UP if they have an impressive but unsuccessful loss to a juggernaut or lose on a fluke.
December 5th, 2023 at 6:47 PM ^
That's not wrong as regards SP+ --- but Connelly and ESPN simply can't put out an article that shows the 2022 teams with their wrong records. That's sloppy, especially given it's a paywalled product they're selling.
It makes it look like this is a recycled article from 365 days ago --- only updated to include the 2023 teams. And based on this MGoBlog thread from 358 days ago (not quite 365 days ago!) --- it DOES look very much the same:
https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/espnbill-connelly-ranks-every-team-has-made-current-playoff-format
December 5th, 2023 at 7:13 PM ^
The issue isn't Connelly, it's ESPN and their complete lack of standards. They consistently put of incorrect information anyone who took 5 minutes to google could tell you was wrong.
December 6th, 2023 at 1:30 PM ^
You mean like just about every win msu had over us from 2015-2021?
December 5th, 2023 at 6:38 PM ^
Effort? I watched part of the playoff selection show Sunday and the graphic on the screen showed that Michigan defeated TCU 26-0 on the big ten championship on Saturday. Proofreading is hard apparently.
December 5th, 2023 at 7:18 PM ^
Saw that, too.
Editing, Style, Proofreading? No.
December 5th, 2023 at 7:30 PM ^
Yes, mainly artificial intelligence on display at ESPN, for sure.
December 5th, 2023 at 9:17 PM ^
Oh come on, man.
“TCU” looks almost identical to “Iowa” when you look at the words on a screen.
/s
December 5th, 2023 at 6:41 PM ^
Yes. Also ranking the 2023 teams alongside everyone else is very much comparing apples and oranges.
2014 Ohio State is as high as #9 BECAUSE OF the fact that they got 2 huge wins in the playoffs.
That's probably a fair ranking for the 2014 Buckeyes, but you literally can't compare the 2023 teams against them. They're below them now, but it's very possible a 2023 Texas (or Alabama or Washington) will rank higher than the 2014 Buckeyes if we did this 2 months from now. Their story (and 2023 Michigan's story) is incomplete right now.
December 5th, 2023 at 7:10 PM ^
Yes, Tex, Bama, and Washington could all move move up greatly by beating Michigan, however, Michigan is between 8.4-12 points better than Bama/Texas/Wash so it would be much harder for them to increase their rankings.
December 5th, 2023 at 7:22 PM ^
You're right, but even if he were to rank teams by where they finished and show their scores after championship week for comparison, this glosses over the fact that there is no data or mathematical justification to suggest that you can rank teams between seasons because all scores are relative to other teams in the same season. We never get games between teams in different seasons, so there is no way to compare who is objectively a better team. These numbers are as much affected by how bad the rest of the teams were that season as they are by how good these teams were.
December 5th, 2023 at 8:36 PM ^
Agree - but you can normalize for cross-seasonal differences by rating teams in terms of +/- standard deviations. Which is what Blue@LSU does in his downstream graphs: from a mathematical POV, I like his approach.
That has issues too --- the number of FBS teams isn't the same between years, we have more teams (mostly on the bad side) in 2023 than we did in 2014. But I think that's a fairly marginal issue.
December 5th, 2023 at 9:43 PM ^
Yeah but we aren't going to care as much about this article in Feb like we do now so they put it out now.
Any team that wins naturally moves up.
I think it is just comparing Fuji to Gala apples at this point.
December 5th, 2023 at 6:42 PM ^
Would be even more interesting to know where they would place all the teams that have been left out over the years. Where does 2023 FSU fit in? And so on…
Edit: I am by no means thumping for FSU- my point is, ESPN’s bias is so obvious, that having to place teams that were just on the brink each year would be very enlightening.
December 5th, 2023 at 7:27 PM ^
Connelly made the same list last year and just copy and pasted from last year and added this year’s teams. Didn’t bother to update the records.
2019 LSU, 2018 Clemson, and 2021 Georgia are all better than 2020 Alabama.
December 5th, 2023 at 9:43 PM ^
Nope. Number 32 should have been number 40.
December 5th, 2023 at 6:21 PM ^
Might mention this is a Bill Connelly ranking for those not giving ESPN clicks.
As such, heavily weighted by SP+.
December 5th, 2023 at 6:30 PM ^
I would think its only weighted by SP+
December 5th, 2023 at 7:01 PM ^
He does say he primarily uses SP+ rating and then adjusts for actual performance and then his opinion
December 5th, 2023 at 7:23 PM ^
Does he make adjustments if a star players, let's say a QB, is hurt? Because I recently learned this is the way.
December 5th, 2023 at 6:33 PM ^
But how far are they from each other? Closely spaced? Far apart?
December 5th, 2023 at 7:01 PM ^
He says in the article he starts with SP+ but then adjusts with actual CFP performance and his personal opinions
December 5th, 2023 at 6:44 PM ^
Michigan State dead last. Seems legit to me.
December 5th, 2023 at 6:53 PM ^
I put this together for a post a couple of weeks ago. It shows the SP+ offense and defense rating for every CFP team. MSU definitely deserves that ranking.
And the CFP winners
December 6th, 2023 at 8:27 AM ^
There was a big sale on smoke and mirrors the season that Staee made it.
December 5th, 2023 at 6:59 PM ^
Not including 2023 teams:
-His #8 ('18 Bama) is the highest team listed to not win a title - although they lost to an even higher #4 ('18 Clemson). The 9 previous title winners are in the top 11 (#6 is '23 Michigan)
-His highest team to not win a CFP semi is '19 OSU, tied at 12/13 with '19 Clemson, who just eked out a win over them
-His lowest team to win a CFP semi is '22 TCU at #28. Other than aforementioned #8 ('18 Bama), the other 7 CFP finalists that lost are neatly stacked between #13/12 (see above) and #20, with just 2014 Bama and the aforementioned '19 OSU interrupting
-The bottom 20 teams, in addition to three 2023 participants, includes '22 TCU and 16 schools that didn't win a CFP semi
So looking backwards - it's very predictive. 9/9 champs in the top 11, 8/9 finalists who lost in the top 20, and 16/18 teams that didn't win their SF in the back half of it. Hope that SP+'s predictive power holds true this year.
December 5th, 2023 at 7:13 PM ^
Yeah on paper (or SP+) we should win it all.
But there is always exceptions to the rule.
Injuries, big field-flipping plays and gaffes with override SP+.
If we play smart, no turnovers, no special team gaffes we should win.
December 5th, 2023 at 7:42 PM ^
I love those stats but man does it also feel like post season Michigan would find a way to be the highest rated team to lose a semi-final. We’ve just not been a good postseason team in my fandom
December 5th, 2023 at 8:18 PM ^
I wonder about the way teams have a month to prep for the semifinal and a week for the final. Same for both teams, but it has always seemed screwy for me.
One might conjecture that there's a better chance for an upset by a cleverly-schemed underdog in the semi- but the stronger team might just win out, all other things remaining equal, in the final.
December 5th, 2023 at 9:49 PM ^
So looking backwards - it's very predictive
That's not how prediction works.
(And lest anyone think this is just snark, remember that Connolly's list isn't just pre-bowl SP+ ratings; he's adjusted it for eventual CFP performance.)
December 5th, 2023 at 7:08 PM ^
1997 Michigan beats all those teams.
December 5th, 2023 at 7:20 PM ^
MSU LOLOLOLOLOLO
December 5th, 2023 at 7:22 PM ^
2019 LSU destroys 2020 Alabama!
December 5th, 2023 at 7:44 PM ^
Kinda crazy this says 2023 Michigan is the best big ten team in the playoff era period. Wow
December 5th, 2023 at 7:54 PM ^
Unless they win a title, they shouldn’t be.
December 5th, 2023 at 10:17 PM ^
Since the rankings are partially beauty contest, they should be when they win or if they lose beautifully.
December 5th, 2023 at 8:06 PM ^
Is ESPN aware of our offensive tackles? not /s
December 5th, 2023 at 9:57 PM ^
Definitely comical that spartys 2015 dream team/season is at 40. Lololol!
That team was the #1 luckiest team in ALL of sports.
December 5th, 2023 at 10:09 PM ^
Hot damn! Let's go Blue!
December 5th, 2023 at 10:38 PM ^
I have a nitpick. This is saying 2022 Georgia was two spots better than 2021 Georgia? I am not buying that. That 2021 Georgia defense was one for the ages. But I do like where the 2023 Michigan team is on the list. This is elite air we are breathing. Now we need to play like it.
December 6th, 2023 at 12:12 AM ^
Knowing this is based on SP+ makes me more optimistic about our matchup. We're legitimately one of the better teams of this era. It's no accident we're number 1 and favored to win it all.