Coronavirus/Covid-19 Post for 3/27/2020
Hope everyone is staying in and staying safe.
Latest news at time of posting:
- USA now has more total cases than any other country.
- USA #6 in total deaths.
- UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson tested positive for cornavirus after displaying minor symptoms.
- The US House is expected to vote on stimulus bill this morning. The president has said previously that he will sign the bill when it gets to him.
Wash your hands, stay at home, and GO BLUE!
When 15-20M cellphone users "disappear," that's probably not a good sign.
This will get worse before it gets better. However, we may be starting to see some positive signs next week (despite the totals getting to be higher than we'll be able to bear, sadly).
If the Health Weather data is even remotely accurate, then the wave of abnormal ILI rates in several states and nationwide have started rolling through hospitals, and should peak this week. The data may be a source of false hope, but I'll take what I can get at this point.
Yeah, and the concern is people will hear the numbers and think social distancing isn't working, and start ignoring the rules.
Metro Detroit looks like it’s in the crosshairs. No major public transit, and it looks like the northern suburbs are the first to get hard-hit. Anyone have any info on the spread pattern? Are we talking about spread from international flights, or driven by large gathering events, followed by community spread?
Is it possible that the primary election was a significant factor? The timing seems right, and that was just before things started shutting down all over the country.
March 27th, 2020 at 10:19 AM ^
Oakland County was doing a ton of travel and face to face business. You inch just a little further north into Lapeer county and they only have 3 confirmed cases.
March 27th, 2020 at 10:24 AM ^
Delta! Lots of international flights in and out of Detroit.
March 27th, 2020 at 12:42 PM ^
Yes. Mcnamara terminal.
We absolutely did not "close the borders" with China, or whatever that monster said. They weren't even screening passengers in that terminal in February, I know because I went through there twice.
March 27th, 2020 at 10:28 AM ^
Yes, we are in the crosshairs in Metro Detroit. But half of the cases are in the city of Detroit itself. It's a catastrophe.
Here's a link to an article on DetNews about what is happening there:
I've been thinking a lot about St. Luke's Gospel story of the rich man and Lazarus. Knowing that I'm not the hero in that story is weighing heavy on me right now.
March 27th, 2020 at 12:33 PM ^
Yeah the media for some reason is separating Detroit from the rest of Wayne County in the statistics which disguises a bit how much it's struggling right now.
Not long after Michigan reported its first case, we heard of multiple Detroit police officers testing positive - a very likely sign that community spread had already taken place.
It's the state's Dept of Public Health making the distinction. Media is simply reporting on the data they're given.
March 27th, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^
DTW is a big international hub and Detroit has an international flavor. I’m sure that’s part of it.
The story in the city of Detroit is about poverty as much as anything. One in three residents of Detroit fall below the poverty line; an even greater percentage rely on meals at schools to feed their children; the baseline health issues in the population are due to: 1) a lack of healthcare, and 2) poor diet. That's just the starting point.
Not sure how you came to that determination. How do you explain Oakland county?
Social media and the news will always post on the exceptions - "21 year old woman with COVID-19 dies with no underlying health conditions". Stay home, wash your hands - yes - do these things. But also don't allow yourself to be paralyzed with fear.
Age (deaths/cases)CFR (95% CI)
≤ 9 years (0/416)0%
10 to 19 years (1/549)0.18% (0.03 to 1.02%)
20 to 49 years (63/19790)0.32% (0.25% to 0.41%)
50 to 59 years (130/10,008)1.3% (1.1% to 1.5%)
60 to 69. years (309/8583)3.6% (3.2% to 4.0%)
70 to 79 years (312/3918)8.0% (7.2% to 8.9%)
≥80 years (208/1408) 14.8% (13.0% to 16.7%)
1. What’s your source
2. Evidence continues to grow that younger people need hospitalization at shockingly high rates. Even if they are likelier to survive, it’s a big deal. I have a friend who is healthy and in his early 40s that’s been hospitalized in Virginia for a week with this, for example.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
Sorry to hear about your friend. My point is, we are constantly indoctrinated with doom and gloom on this. And while you're correct, access to medical care and availability will certainly make a huge difference in this, the media, at least in my view, amplifies people's fears by making the exception (21 year old dies from COVID!) when in reality, there's an extremely, extremely small chance anyone under 40 will perish from this. Again, to be clear - I'm not saying go out and have a birthday bash with your buddies at the local watering hole. I am saying, don't let the news outlets and social media impact your mental health negatively with focusing on the exceptions.
March 27th, 2020 at 10:11 AM ^
Thanks for the link.
Here’s a 3-day old rundown on hospitalization data by age group.
March 27th, 2020 at 10:32 AM ^
Interesting thanks. Ah, to be young again. Very thankful this does not have much (re: any) impact on children.
March 27th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
Agree wholeheartedly.
March 27th, 2020 at 10:56 AM ^
Long term hospitalization and recovery vs death is different obviously for age groups. Speculation is that those who vape (a younger crowd) are more susceptible because of damage to their celia.
Younger folks can win the fight better but their are discussions of permanent lung damage. All bets are off if you can’t get on a vent.
I’m sure many more people have had Covid and recovered in the US than have been tested in the stat line.
The numbers are even lower than it looks like in that chart. The number of *confirmed* cases is far lower than the number of actual infected people. I.e. if you contract COVID19, your odds of dying are unimaginably low.
However, it is still important to understand that it can kill adults of all ages. It's like playing a game of Russian Roulette. No matter how small the odds, it's still 100% for those who actually end up with the worst case scenario.
March 27th, 2020 at 10:11 AM ^
100%. As I'm sure many folks on here have mentioned in the past, the numerator is probably somewhat close to accurate (how many people tested positive and died from it) vs. the denominator (how many people recovered). My strong assumption is that there will be a lot of people that had it and just never got tested and recovered.
But despite that, for most of us on here (under 60 with no underlying conditions) our main job is to minimize the spread so staying home and social distancing is best.
March 27th, 2020 at 11:26 AM ^
I’m actually wondering if the numerator is actually as good as we think it is. For the flu, the estimated annual mortality ranges are often about a factor of two. See table 2 of the attached. In three of the last 4 flu seasons the range was slightly over two and in last years it was very close.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
March 27th, 2020 at 10:22 AM ^
"Unimaginably low"???
So if my dad, age 75, were to be exposed to a fairly easily communicable virus today, there is a 10% chance he wouldn't be there for me to wish him a happy father's day this year. That's not unimaginably low, that's frighteningly high.
March 27th, 2020 at 10:29 AM ^
Did you read my entire comment?
March 27th, 2020 at 11:54 AM ^
Couple things:
1. The table probably underestimates the number of deaths since ao e number of those patients are still in the ICU.
2. How far off do you think we are in number of cases? Factor of 10?
3. What is your definition of unimaginably low?
Using a factor of 10 and assuming no more deaths in the group of people in the table the odds are still between 0.4% and 1%. While not frighteningly high, I’m not sure I’d call that unimaginably low.
March 27th, 2020 at 12:35 PM ^
Okay so I picked the wrong adverb. ?♂️
"exposed" is a helluva lot different than "getting" the virus. but i get your point.
really interesting treatment concept, hopefully it works. So would this then be like a daisy chain where current patients get the antibodies and then as they recover they get their plasma drawn for future cases?
Indeed it is. We've used similar treatments for quite sometime, a treatment called IVIG involves pooled antibodies from tons of people. When someone's cancer treatment wipes out their immune system, they can get an infusion of IVIG and boom, they get the humoral (antibody) immunity from hundreds of donors without all the fuss of having to get exposed to their infections! To your question about paying it forward, I'm not sure how that would work. My hunch is that getting the benefit of someone else's antibodies would blunt your own response and make your serum less helpful for the next guy. If I had to guess, they'll probably limit it to collecting from people who have been infected and fought off the infection on their own.
STAY BLUE!
The local Monsignor announced he has the virus. He said he started showing signs March 16, self-quarantined, and is now recovering. That truly is a miracle because he’s about 900 years old.
March 27th, 2020 at 10:08 AM ^
This twitter thread is worth clicking through. It’s a description of coping with a serious but not critical case of COVID-19, mostly at home. I’m keeping it in my back pocket in case I need it later.
This one too, in the same vein...
https://twitter.com/ShirazMaher/status/1243554346396246018?s=19
March 27th, 2020 at 10:15 AM ^
They still haven't voted on the stimulus bill???? My God Congress is the absolute worst group of humans on earth
March 27th, 2020 at 11:38 AM ^
All because of Republican Representative Thomas Massey (KY). This cunt doesn't like the bill and was going to force a roll call vote, instead of a voice vote.
So 100's of people had to travel to DC, during a pandemic, because of this one asshole. Fucker is going to have blood on his hands. I don't understand how people like this sleep at night.
March 27th, 2020 at 10:24 AM ^
I actually doubt if we have the most cases. You can't believe anything coming out of China and as the doctor said on the briefing last night, the modeling makes no sense. The mortality rate in the US by the numbers sits at about 1.5% where the rest of the world by the numbers the mortality rate is about 4.5%. We are obviously doing a lot more testing than other places. As we continue to test, you will see the mortality rate drop even lower. Hopefully we will soon have the test which will tell you if you have already had the virus and recovered without realizing you had it.
March 27th, 2020 at 12:05 PM ^
Why the mortality rate is sitting at 1.5%: we are mostly testing people who already have bad symptoms. Unless the people are rich, politicians, or professional athletes.
But I also think we are dramatically understating the number of people who have this virus.
Deaths generally lag behind the confirmed cases, so expect to get a larger sample of data within the next 14-18 days as the hundred of thousands of those who have the virus in the states either get better or, sadly, die.
We can't trust China, but that doesn't mean the USA hasn't done a terrible job of handling this situation.
We may also be significantly underestimating the number of people who have died as a result of the virus.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/27/those-covid-19-death-toll-figures-are-incomplete/
your last sentence is a question i asked yesterday. last nite i heard a doctor say that they now have a pin prick blood test which can do this. so once this dies down in a few weeks, hopefully, usa can do a lot more mass testing.
March 27th, 2020 at 10:25 AM ^
Just saw this from Nature. You can stop with the bio-weapon theories on coronavirus. Also, it's been around a for many years. It just got worse recently. Also, not so sure it originated in a market in Wuhan either.
I had the worst head/chest cold in my life the week after the ND game last fall. My lungs hurt for two days and I was horribly congested. I wonder if I picked up the bad stuff then.
March 27th, 2020 at 10:49 AM ^
The only people pumping the bio-weapon conspiracy were nutjobs, and irresponsible jackasses like Tom Cotton. Nobody has ever presented any evidence to support that theory, meanwhile there is plenty of evidence that SARS-COV-2 originated in bats somewhere in China. This particular corona virus finally made the jump to people through animal contact.
March 27th, 2020 at 11:06 AM ^
That doesn’t even sound like C-19 symptoms.
now, everybody who has ever been sick thinks they had it.
March 27th, 2020 at 11:38 AM ^
I agree, then again, I've successfully run the gauntlet so far....
Pretty sure I had it back in 1977.
I'm pretty sure they called it "Disco Fever" back then!
OK, I'll let myself out.....
Exactly. I mean, I was pretty sick in January; it would be nice if I had it then (and I am in Toronto with a large population of first-generation Chinese immigrants and a lot of travel to and from China, so it’s not impossible), because then I’d (hopefully) be done with it.
I don’t think so, though.
March 27th, 2020 at 10:45 AM ^
Here's a fairly rosy projection for WA of 1,400 deaths. Extrapolating that nationally (and no it doesn't really work that way but still) it would be 60,000.
Consensus forecast here of 246,000 deaths:
Obvious caveats on uncertainty, data issues, testing issues etc, it's just a model etc apply.
March 27th, 2020 at 11:05 AM ^
Dr. Jayanta Bhattacharya. Professor of Medicine at Stanford just said he thinks its likely that COVID is less deadly than the flu!
He did say he needs more info to make a more definitive claim. He definitely qualified the statement quite a bit. But that's interesting and great info.
For some reason, most of Mgoblog won't like this.
March 27th, 2020 at 11:11 AM ^
When early projections said we could have 1-2 million US deaths, I said that I think it will be closer to 100k-200k. Hopefully, it will be even lower than that.
March 27th, 2020 at 11:26 AM ^
For the past couple weeks, I've been modeling out ~75k deaths, which was under the assumption that COVID is more deadly than the flu. CDC says we can get as much as 62k (24k on the low end) deaths from the flu this season. So maybe we can get to somewhere in the 50k range for COVID deaths, which would be a great outcome.
The doctor echoed what myself and possibly you and several other mgoposters have been saying: many many people have it or have had it with little to no symptoms and are not getting counted in the incidence rate number. I'm thinking the real death rate is probably closer to the flu (or less even less deadly).
I understand stuff like this is controversial on this board, but I find this information quite positive and gives me hope.