Big Ten Title: Michigan vs. Illinois Scenarios

Submitted by Squad16 on February 21st, 2021 at 9:14 PM

Coming off our incredible win today, Michigan is excellently positioned to win the Big Ten Title outright; wanted to take some time to dive into the scenarios. 

If Michigan defeats Illinois on March 2nd:

  • Even if Illinois wins all 4 of its other remaining games (@MSU, vs. Nebraska, @Wisconsin, @OSU), U of M only needs to go 2-2 in our additional games to win the Big Ten outright (vs. Iowa, @Indiana, MSU (x2)).
  • If we beat Illinois, it will be their fourth loss, meaning their best case is 16-4 (0.80 winning percentage). That means Michigan needs to go 14-3 (0.82 winning percentage). With 11 wins already, and Illinois being our 12th in this hypothetical scenario, that means we just need a very doable 2-2 in our other games. 
  • If Illinois loses an additional game (most likely @OSU, or @Wisconsin), Michigan only would need one additional win in our final games to win the conference. In this scenario, Illinois would be 15-5 (0.75), meaning 13-4 (0.76) wins us the conference. 
  • All in all, there's no overstating how critical the Illinois game is. By comparison, the Iowa game is essentially meaningless as long as we beat Illinois. 

If Illinois defeats Michigan on March 2nd:

  • If Michigan wins its other final four games, we still win the Big Ten, even if Illinois wins out & beats us. In this scenario, Michigan would finish 15-2 (0.88); the best Illinois can do is 17-3 (0.85).
  • In other words, we need to win 4 more games to *guarantee* a Big Ten title, and we do NOT need one of those 4 to be against Illinois. 
  • From there, it just goes 1 for 1; aka, if we lose an additional game, we'd need Illinois to lose another.
  • In terms of the most plausible unfortunate scenario: if Michigan beats IU but loses to both Iowa and Illinois, we'd actually still be alive entering the final few days, needing to sweep MSU AND rely on Ohio State to beat Illinois on the final day of the regular season.
  • If Illinois loses a game *before* they come to Ann Arbor (@MSU, Nebraska, @Wisconsin), Michigan would still control our own destiny even if we lose to Illinois and 1/2 of Iowa/IU (sweeping MSU would give us the Big Ten, even if Illinois beats OSU). 

Why are you excluding OSU and Iowa?

Given our defeat of the Buckeyes this afternoon, neither OSU nor Iowa can *reasonably* catch us. Both teams already have 5 losses, meaning even if one wins out (they both cannot win out, as OSU and Iowa still have to play each other again), the best they can finish is 15-5 (0.75).

13-4 (0.76) beats that winning percentage, meaning they would need Michigan to go 1-4 (or 0-5) down the stretch to catch us. In other words, even finishing a very disappointing 2-3 would still leave us above both teams. That sort of collapse seems highly unlikely, so not worth spending too much time on it here. Our win in Columbus likely secured us a #2 seed at worst in the BTT; Illinois is the focus now. 

 

wolve1972

February 22nd, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^

Agree, and it should have put an almost damn near lock on the B1G regular season title, Yes, I realize there's still Illinois left but I just feel that we have a deeper team than the Illini.

As for the big picture - the NCAA tournament - I like UM's chances against anyone. But being honest, anyone of Gonzaga, Baylor, UM, OSU and Illinois can win the whole thing, just depends on matchups and who's hot that day. I've watched Alabama play a few times this year and not sure they have the depth and firepower as the teams just mentioned, A dark horse is Iowa and Luke. Man. the B1G is loaded this year

 

Joined: 12/07/2018

MGoPoints: 6789

Squad16

February 21st, 2021 at 9:31 PM ^

the tl;dr version:

With 5 games remaining:

  • Finishing 4-1 guarantees us the Big Ten title, regardless of who the loss is to. 
  • If we beat Illinois, 3-2 guarantees us the Big Ten title. 

Joined: 01/04/2018

MGoPoints: 2138

Squad16

February 21st, 2021 at 9:53 PM ^

tl;dr regarding non-Illinois teams.

  • The winner of the Iowa @ OSU game on 2/28 can only catch Michigan if we go 1-4 down the stretch AND they win both of their other two games. 
  • If the winner of the matchup lost another game (OSU would still have Illinois, Iowa would still have Wisconsin), Michigan would have to go 0-5 for them to catch us. 
  • Purdue, Wisconsin, and the loser of the Iowa at OSU game on 2/28 can only catch us if we go 0-5.
  • No other team in the Big Ten can catch Michigan under any circumstances. 

Joined: 01/04/2018

MGoPoints: 2138

Impact_Panda

February 21st, 2021 at 10:27 PM ^

Nice post. As mentioned in another thread, this would be an...interesting...way to end the season (and a plausible one): 

  • Illinois goes 4-1, beating UM and losing @OSU
  • UM goes 3-2, beating Iowa, @Indiana, and MSU; losing to Illinois and @MSU

UM 14-3 (.82 winning percentage)

Illinois 16-4 (.80 winning percentage)

UM wins the title based on a slim winning percentage margin while losing at home in the only head-to-head meeting. Now that would be controversial.

Also, in this (again, very plausible) scenario, the Iowa game is massive. UM really needs to win that one.

Joined: 11/21/2016

MGoPoints: 891

Squad16

February 21st, 2021 at 10:37 PM ^

Would Illinois fans complain? Yes. But, the composition of the specific games we are missing really damages their argument.

It'd be one thing if the 3 games we were missing were against top teams, but 2/3 are against true bottom dwellers who won't even come close to sniffing the bubble, let alone a tournament bid (Northwestern and Penn State), and the other would've been at home against a middle of the pack Indiana team, during a stretch (late Jan.) when we were on fire and they had just lost 2 out of 3. 

If Michigan goes 3-0 in those games (which is >50%, even thinking conservatively), they'd be 17-3 and still finish above Illinois.

It's not our fault Illinois lost to Rutgers and Maryland!

With your latter scenario though, I think a loss @MSU is less likely than one against Iowa, especially because, as the last game of the season, we'd be very keenly aware of needing to win it in this scenario. 

Joined: 01/04/2018

MGoPoints: 2138

TrueBlue2003

February 22nd, 2021 at 2:29 AM ^

The Iowa game is somewhat meaningful in that it means we wouldn't have to win at MSU in this scenario (i.e. we'd already have it locked up going into the last weekend) but I would't be concerned going into that game if it was a must-win.  There aren't fans at road games this year.  That mostly takes the scare factor away for me of them doing something heroic.

Joined: 01/05/2010

MGoPoints: 38075

NotADuck

February 21st, 2021 at 11:37 PM ^

That's the thing.  They're not actually that good...

Seriously, Micah Potter (their best player) is riding the bench for some unknown reason (inconsistency?) and Nate Reuvers is a shell of what he once was/could have become.  D'Mitrik Trice is alright but not a good enough athlete to carry the rest of the team.  Everyone else is a bunch of role players playing below their previous levels of form, save Aleem Ford who is playing well but can't do much more than he already is.  He's like a poor man's Livers.  Great defender, solid athlete, good 3pt shooter, can't create for others or himself.

They might make some noise in the tourney against teams that aren't as well versed in their methods but they are clearly a rung or two below the best teams in the Big Ten.

Joined: 12/20/2013

MGoPoints: 18373

Squad16

February 22nd, 2021 at 8:53 AM ^

Maybe not, but they'll get a few more chances; Badgers host the Illini next weekend (in which we should be strongly rooting for them), and travel to Iowa City for the final game of the year. The Badgers also travel to Purdue, which is a big game for BTT seeding (Wisconsin is currently 0.5 games behind Purdue, and both teams are still in contention for a Top 4 seed and double bye). 

Joined: 01/04/2018

MGoPoints: 2138