Analyzing The B1G Race and Passing Offense/Defense
By now we have analyzed Saturday's game to death, we've seen the tie-breaking scenarios, and have dissected the UFR. We know we are ranked 7th in the CFP with two Big Ten teams ahead of us. There's a lot of football to be played, but there is a definite path to a championship. Typically a Big Ten chase boils down to rushing offense and defense, but I would argue that this year's path is going to be largely dependent on the B1G pass offenses and certain pass defenses (Michigan/MSU to be exact).
MSU's pass defense - that was just lit up by JJ and Cade - has 4-straight games against the top-4 pass offenses in the Big Ten.
This Week at: No.3 pass offense Purdue. Purdue is averaging 307 passing YPG, nearly 100 more than Michigan. We know Michigan doesn't throw a ton, but that's still notable. Purdue has a very poor rushing offense averaging 72 (YPG). They are going to throw the ball with many of those passes going to 6-2 WR David "Don't Call me Ronnie" Bell. Bell has 53 catches for 786 yards and a 14.8 YPC average. He had a 120 yard game vs. Minnesota, a 240-yard game vs. Iowa and 9 for 74 against Wisconsin. It is reasonable to believe that MSU may have to shadow him all day with a safety. Here's where it gets interesting: Purdue's second best receiving option is Payne Durham who has 36 catches on the year for a 9.9 YPC average. Michigan just laid the blue print for how a TE sitting in a zone with 2 LBs can beat your defense. If MSU has to double Bell, this matchup will be fun. Finally, at QB Purdue has two players with better than 68% completion percentage.
Next Week vs. No. 2 pass offense Maryland. Maryland is Maryland and they turned into a pumpkin in October but they can throw the ball! With 309 pass YPG they are very similar to Purdue in stats, but actually score more points (30 per game). They may be more equipped to get in a shootout, primarily because they aren't that good. But at the same time, they have close wins over Indiana and West Virginia which mimics some of the close wins MSU had. This is not a great matchup for MSU.
Nov. 20 vs. Ohio State, the No. 1 pass offense in the conference. With Garret Wilson and Chris Olave OSU has all the weapons and speed in space to do the same thing to MSU that UM did. OSU averages 346 yards per game and presents another bad matchup for MSU. If they get ahead early, will MSU be able to rely on Peyton Thorne to bring them back? Of course, Michigan must play them too and on the other side of the ball, we've heard all year that OSU is shaky. So that's another game that will come down to Big 10 passing defenses/offenses.
Nov. 27 vs. Penn State, the No. 4 pass defense in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions have been all over the place this year due to injuries on the defensive line, QB and the lack of a run game. But with an experienced signal caller, they can still throw the ball again presenting not such a great matchup for MSU (and maybe not Michigan either, but that PSU run game is bad). Jahan Dotson has 60 receptions for 690 yards and 6 TDs and will be trouble. for any team that plays him. But he isn't a slot fade type guy. At 5-11 184, his 'speed in space' could cause trouble for Michigan State or Michigan even.
November 3rd, 2021 at 11:42 AM ^
I don't care about MSU anymore. They beat Michigan, refs or not, Michigan gave that game away. If both teams win out they will both make the playoff I'm not worried about that what so ever.
November 3rd, 2021 at 11:51 AM ^
Ohio State would have two big ten loses if MSU and Michigan win out Michigan would have 1 Big Ten loss state would be undefeated. Explain how OSU gets in?
November 3rd, 2021 at 11:56 AM ^
I deleted my comment apparently at the same time you were typing yours... I had forgotten that MSU hadn't played OSU yet.
If all three end with 1 loss, OSU goes to the conf title game.
November 3rd, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^
All good my friend. Go Blue! I’ve made 4728928473838382938748272828 errors in my life and I’m gonna make 4 times as many more. If you don’t believe me just ask my wife !
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:57 PM ^
Tiebreaker goes to West division opponent records. Right now OSU leads that.
All 3 teams have Nebraska on their schedule so it comes down to:
OSU: Purdue + Minnesota = currently 7 wins
UM: Wisconsin + NW = currently 4 wins
MSU: Purdue + NW = currently 4 wins
Purdue would be guaranteed to lose 2 of their remaining 4 games in this scenario (OSU & MSU)
If Wisconsin wins out, and NW can beat Purdue/Illinois, that'd give UM 10 wins. Then we would need 3 or less of Purdue over Indiana, MN over Illinois, MN over Iowa, MN over Indiana to happen. Basically we would really need NW to beat Purdue and Wisconsin to beat Minnesota.
MSU is almost guaranteed to lose this tiebreaker, so if UM and OSU are tied with number of wins, UM would go to the B10 Championship via head-to-head.
November 3rd, 2021 at 1:03 PM ^
The tiebreaker wouldn't go back to head-to-head if they tied the 5th tiebreaker, it would move to the 6th. UM would still win that one though, since it goes by record against the best non-division conference opponents. Assuming Wisconsin wins the conference, UM will have beaten them but OSU will not have, so UM will have a better record against the best non-division conference opponent.
November 3rd, 2021 at 3:21 PM ^
If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 8 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step (or sub-step), the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative. If three or more teams remain tied after any step, move to next step in tiebreaker with remaining tied teams.
November 3rd, 2021 at 1:59 PM ^
All 3 teams have Nebraska on their schedule so it comes down to:
I'm no fan of Scott Frost or Nebraska, but holy shit that's just bad luck to have to face the three best teams from the other division in one season.
November 3rd, 2021 at 7:47 PM ^
Why does OSU go? Are we 100% certain it comes down to strength or opponents on west side? If so, Purdue plays OSU/MSU next 2 weeks, they definitely can start to lose games. Wisconsin might not lose again, definitely playing best of the west teams. Minnesota still at Iowa and Wisconsin. I guess I am confused why we just say OSU will go. I thought of all tied and beat each other, it was highest rated in CFP. No?
November 3rd, 2021 at 11:51 AM ^
Co-signed.
And FWIW I'm WAY more encouraged than discouraged after Saturday. I saw a very potent passing game which I didnt know we had and that gives me hope for every (including OSU) game the rest of the way. And if we win the next three games (and we should) we'll be sitting at 10-1 with OSU coming to town.
Anybody who says they saw that coming this year is a fucking liar.
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:07 PM ^
I will second that. This whole year has looked different. Just trying to enjoy the ride.
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:29 PM ^
I hate the idea of losing to our two rivals, but if those are our only losses and the team looks good despite the results... well, that's better than I expected coming into the season, and frankly it does set us up well for next year.
I also cosign. I don't care what MSU does. I'm glad Michigan is #7 and all, but I wrote off the playoff and a national title before the season started and never changed that perspective, so all that ranking is to me is another group of eyes saying "yep, Michigan looks pretty good" and I'll take it.
What MSU does is of little concern to me. The only scenario it has any effect on us is in the unlikely scenario that we beat OSU. And then...
Well, there are few sports events I wouldn't trade for a win over OSU. If you tell me that I could push a button and have Michigan beat OSU, but I'd have to suffer getting jilted out of the B1G championship game and the playoff by a close road loss to MSU and some unfair tiebreakers?
You had me at "beating OSU."
I don't care what MSU does.
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:38 PM ^
I will admit that I am more encouraged for OSU now than I was before Saturday as well. Granted, I'm still of the mindset that OSU is a loss until its not, but the passing game looked so much better than I thought it would. If Cade can replicate and build on what he did on Saturday, Michigan might have a shot, because no matter what they're going to have to play the "outscore game" to beat OSU. The defense is going to give up plenty of points that day. Nothing Michigan can do about that, and you have to assume that almost all of OSU's drives will end in points in some regard, whether its a FG or a TD.
I'm really curious what the gameplan is going to be for that game on offense. Truly the best defense against OSU is to keep Stroud, Olave, Henderson and Wilson off the field as long as humanly possible, so you would think there will be some semblance of playing keep away and trying to get Corum/Haskins to wear their defense down. You would hope there could be multiple 6-8 minute drives that all end in TDs, but if there is ever a game where you need to be as aggressive as you can be, its going to be this one. Michigan is going to have to find a way to play keep up as well, because again, OSU won't have too many issues finding the endzone against anyone.
If Michigan falls behind by 14 or more, I'm not sure that's a deficit they can climb back from. Not against that offense and those weapons, because you can't assume you're going to get a bunch of defensive stops in a row. No one outside maybe Athens, GA can comfortably feel that way.
Have to hope the offense can find a way to keep it within seven by the time they hit the fourth quarter, and then hope the defense can find a way to get a stop or a turnover at a key moment.
November 3rd, 2021 at 7:30 PM ^
I am way more discouraged. It is clear the Big Ten does not want Michigan to succeed. To win any sort of big game Michigan has to play perfect on offense. Obviously you don’t want to turn the ball over but it is more than that. No one can miss a block, no one can drop a pass, and every time Michigan gets the ball they have to score touchdowns. Even if they do all this there is still a chance the officials will find a way to steal the game from them. To have any sort of chance against OSU Michigan would have to score over 50 points. There is simply too much stacked up against them to succeed.
November 4th, 2021 at 3:50 PM ^
I agree. Cade threw the ball very well and his receivers looked good, Michigan should pass more going forward. I am more hopeful about Michigan's chances against PSU and OSU, especially OSU after seeing this effective passing attack. I know MSU's pass defensive is passive and weak but good routes and good throws standout nonetheless. I don't like Michigan's chances against OSU if Harbaugh goes into it with a 1 dimensional offense but if they continue to throw the ball over the next few games and establish a balance and passing rhythem then they have a real shot.
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:35 PM ^
Yeah we lost but I think the way the season has gone so far has exceeded the expectations people had before the season by a large margin. Most were probably hoping for 7-8 wins. I realistically think we get to 10 which is a great season considering what went down last year. It will be something to build off of.
November 3rd, 2021 at 11:53 AM ^
If we win out, I will be more than happy to let the chips fall where they may. Just win baby.
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
Yeah I’m not worried about State. Someone is gonna beat them by about 40. Their time is coming, they got a bye week to prep for Michigan their super bowl. They don’t get that luxury with the rest of their season.
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:24 PM ^
We did this in 2016, 2018, and to a lesser extent 2019. We’re not winning out and tho it’s “cool” to talk about, it’s not gonna happen. 9-3, 10-2 is our bar like it usually is.
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:54 PM ^
Look, everyone has heard this argument, and even those of us still hoping for a best outcome know this is pretty likely as well, but for love of God can we be fans that still hope we have a chance and we can talk about getting rid of Harbaugh after an OSU loss if and when the results present themselves to do so?
We keep being told, “you aren’t living in reality if you still have hope this team can win out, Harbaugh is DONE!”. Isn’t part of being a fan not living in reality? Sports are sort of an escape from everyday routine of real life aren’t they?
Can being a fan be fun again for Michigan fans? Ever?
Do we have to be as dominant as Bama and OSU for that to happen? (Because I predict if we start going 40/60 or 50/50 with OSU, fans will still be pissed, because the goalpost only move)
Can’t we speculate? Make mostly unlikely predictions?
Saying all this…..my goodness college football needs a true playoff, like 16 or 32 teams. Think of the fun we would have! You could lose 2 or 3 games and still have a punchers chance! Going undefeated is ridiculously hard (even 11-1) and it’s almost a requirement for teams outside the SEC to make the CFP.
November 3rd, 2021 at 1:36 PM ^
Thank you for this.
I was told I was delusional for predicting 9-3 or possibly even 10-2. Now that this is the likely outcome of the season, we are told that this outcome wouldn't be a success.
I'm going to predict that we go 4-0 from here on out. Is it likely? Maybe not. But even if it isn't, this has already been a fun season.
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:33 PM ^
The Michigan difference.
Thanks for posting this. Season ain't over. Let's Go Blue!
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:37 PM ^
If Maryland had any semblance of a rush defense, I would've pegged them as more likely to beat MSU than Purdue. Either way, I still think it comes down to Nov. 27th. If PSU and Franklin are dialed in, they are the best shot to give them the non-OSU loss.
November 3rd, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^
Purdue beating MSU, Maryland beating MSU, MSU beating OSU and a meteor hit the MSU-PSU game would be desired.
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^
Yes I would say near certainty that MSU has one loss, but a toss up if they get 2 more….however you could make the same case for us.
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:49 PM ^
Pretty please, with sugar on top….win the fucking games!
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:54 PM ^
Msu is gonna go 2-2 down the stretch of the regular season. M will go 4-0, upset osu and win the B1G, beating whoever the B1G West craps out, earning them the #3 or #4 seed in the Playoff, where they will come up just short in the semi-final.
Thus, a successful year with a different, less heartbreaking end.
November 3rd, 2021 at 2:00 PM ^
Spoiler alert.
November 3rd, 2021 at 1:08 PM ^
As it pertains to us I’m more interested in why our run game fell off against MSU? Is it because teams are stacking the box and daring us to beat them through the air, is it because we don’t use Cade in the run game, is it due to injuries or is our run game just getting stuffed against better defenses? I’m interested to see what we find out and how the rest of the year goes. I will add that I think Corum is dancing too much and not going north south. Overall, that’s all I see and want to know the rest of our issues.
November 3rd, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^
This was explained pretty thoroughly in the UFR today.
1. Stacked box + blitzes
2. Mental errors by players
3. Big game for Slade
4. Stubborn play calling running into stacked box and trying to block LBs with AJ Henning.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:19 PM ^
Nov. 20 vs. Ohio State, the No. 1 pass offense in the conference. With Garret Wilson and Chris Olave OSU averages 346 yards per game and presents another bad matchup for MSU. If they get ahead early, will MSU be able to rely on Peyton Thorne to bring them back? Of course, Michigan must play them too and on the other side of the ball, we've heard all year that OSU is shaky. So that's another game that will come down to Big 10 passing defenses/offenses.
Unfortunately MSU matches up better against UM than OSU. OSU will shred MSU. MSU may get some points too, but OSU will put up a lot of points against MSU's pass defense. I think UM might find some offensive success against OSU. But, they just won't be able to score enough to stay in the game. OSU wins the conference...again. MSU finishes second. UM will have to battle PSU for third assuming we can take care of Indiana and Maryland. Isn't it crazy to think UM could be 10-2 and still third in their division? Such is life in the B1G east :/. We can get rid of these divisions any day now.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:21 PM ^
Thorough analysis. I think it's conceivable MSU goes 1-3 going out. Against us they had 1 weapon.
Why was Walker so much worse against Nebraska and Indiana than against us? Clear you can game plan for the guy. For road games MSU will not get favourable officials. Purdue really matches up well.
Maryland doesn't match up so well as they are so weak against the run.
FWIW the ESPN predictor gives them a 14% chance of beating OSU.
I'm not sure PSU matches up that well. I don't know what happened to them this year. But they do have a ton of talent. Their secondary is a strength so if they can stop Walker and not shoot themselves in the foot they have a good chance too.
November 3rd, 2021 at 6:34 PM ^
Two thoughts on Walker. First, Michigan did sell out and try to stop him and got out schemed. Second, the coaches didn’t prepare well enough for him and didn’t make the proper in game adjustments needed. Both scare me for the rest of the season.
November 3rd, 2021 at 8:31 PM ^
Tempo...figure it out coaches
November 3rd, 2021 at 11:43 PM ^
It's all simple. The Wolverines win the rest of their games. MSU loses to Ohio State and Penn State. Problems solved. Mischief managed.
November 4th, 2021 at 9:32 AM ^
MSU conservative pass defense allows teams to pass at will between the twenties but when teams get to the red zone State plays tighter and opponents end up settling for field goals, like Michigan.