4/6/2023 – Quinnipiac 5, Michigan 2 – 26-12-3, Season Over 

Goaltending has a strange place in the sport of hockey. It's common jargon among hockey analysts to say that a given team was "the better team" in a given game, if the balance of chances and territorial map of play favors that team. What that phrase ignores is the goaltending component... we say that a team was "the better team" as if the goalie is not part of the team, when in fact goaltenders are the most important part of the team. 

When I analyze hockey, I view goaltending as this final adjustment of sorts. I sit down and look at the two teams' roster of skaters and how they match up to get a sense of the balance of chances, take a peek at the names to get a feel for the caliber of shooters, and then figure out which team is "better". After that, I examine goaltending and adjust my feeling accordingly. In some cases, goaltending is the trump card, which swings a matchup in a direction that the battle of skaters would not suggest. In other cases, goaltending appears to be neutral, with neither team having an edge and thus I assume that the team who has the edge among the skaters will win out. 

Of course, when I price in a goaltending adjustment, I still know that in a small sample size, that estimated adjustment could be wrong. Goalies we know are good have been verified to be good over huge sample sizes, entire seasons worth of evidence. The same for so-called "bad" goalies. But the farther down you drill, the more minute you make the sample, the more erratic the variation is. Even in an NHL playoff series, best four-out-of-seven, you can have unexpected goalie performances that don't make a ton of sense. Joonas Korpisalo was largely a terrible goalie from 2016-2022, an .897 SV% in the regular season that was well below NHL average and atrocious in the advanced metrics. But for nine playoff games in the NHL bubble tournament in the summer of 2020? He posted a .941 SV%, won a preliminary series, and made life difficult on a terrific Tampa Bay Lightning team. 

That's how goaltending can go in small sample sizes. SV% is a famously variable stat from year to year in the NHL, with randomness and puck luck playing huge roles in that variation. It's why analytics geeks argue against paying goalies large contracts and the analytically-minded, forward-thinking teams tend to go cheap on goaltending and sift through different options, rather than getting tied down to one (Carolina, Colorado, and Toronto have all gone this route). There is fear of the randomness of goaltending in a seven game playoff series in the NHL and justifiably so, which makes it all the more asinine that college hockey goes with one game playoff rounds, where the "goaltending randomness" knob gets cranked up to 11. You can go into a single game feeling good about your goaltender, just to see all your hopes crumble and your worst fears come alive. It's why in the NHL you don't want your season to come down to a single game and why in NCAA Hockey the fan experience of the tournament is trauma-inducing on the scale from euphoric to "fucked".  

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[NHL.com]

I mentioned in the opening paragraph that goaltending is the most important of a hockey team and it's true. They spend more time on the ice than any skater, more time than multiple skaters put together in fact. They also have an outsized and direct role on what goals go in the net, which is 50% of the game. A great goaltender can lift up a team in a way that no great skater, even the best of the best can. You can plop Wayne Gretzky at his peak on an awful hockey team and he will make them better, but their improvement will not be as great as if you dropped 1998 Dominik Hašek on that team.

A great example of this are two teams, the late 90s/early 00s Buffalo Sabres and the Florida Panthers of the same era. Both teams had transcendent talents on an otherwise pitiful roster. For the Sabres, that was Hašek, the greatest goalie of all-time at the peak of his powers. For the Panthers, that was Pavel Bure, a dynamic goalscorer of speed and skill at a time when the NHL was trending away from the rush offense and firewagon hockey that defined his game. Both players were having exceptional seasons, Hašek posting SV% clips in the high .930s, which, for the NHL, is patently crazy, and Bure scoring 58 and 59 goals to lead the NHL, totals that were extremely high for the era.

So both teams had poor rosters with one otherworldly talent firing on all cylinders... what happened? Hašek dragged the 1998 Sabres into the third round and the 1999 team to the Stanley Cup Final, while Bure's 2001 Panthers limped to a bottom five finish in a 30 team league, in spite of his NHL-best goal total. A God-Mode goaltender can singlehandedly drag a terrible team very far in a way that no skater can. And likewise a wretched goaltender can sink an entire team, even if that team is winning the chances battle consistently (2012-13 Michigan Hockey may remember this), in a way that is not remotely comparable to a skater having an off night. 

That's true for an entire season and it's true for a specific game. You can play a great game and give the goalie good support, but if the goalie can't make enough saves, you're cooked. And sometimes you get caved in all night long, but the goalie steals it for you. No other position can do that, but a goalie sure can. You need a goalie to play well to win a championship, be it in the NHL or especially in college hockey. When I sang the praises of Erik Portillo in my post-regional column, I made sure to stipulate that "two more like this" was necessary in talking up Michigan Hockey's national title chances because I knew how conditional it all was on goaltending. I just didn't want to have to look back on that column with the thought process "man I'm glad I hedged there". 

[AFTER THE JUMP: How this ties into Michigan]

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[David Wilcomes]

The Frozen Four battle with Quinnipiac was as great of an example as you will ever find on the individual game effects of goaltending. The Bobcats came out pretty strong, getting an early power play and putting Michigan on their heels. They created a number of chances off the rush, mostly odd-man opportunities, and were the better team in the first period. After that, Michigan battled back. They started getting power play chances, slowing the game down, and tilting the ice for minutes on end. Quinnipiac would get some looks here and there, but the quantity was greatly reduced. The third period was a mix of this, Michigan still getting the better number of chances, but score effects played a role. In totality, shot attempts were 62-54 Michigan and at even strength they were 56-50 Wolverines. I'd say Michigan and Quinnipiac were pretty even as a whole, each team getting their window to strike. 

The game was won in net, the goaltending gap being decisive. Quinnipiac played their game and didn't allow much off the rush, as expected, but got broken down off the cycle a number of times. Michigan created chances at 5v5 and they got looks off the PP. The Bobcats kept everything in front of them and asked Yaniv Perets to be good. He was. Perets got beaten a couple times by ultra high-skill plays, but there were no howlers. He made a few big stops, squeezed rebounds, was a calming presence in goal, and when the puck got past him, he played the angles well enough to get the benefit of the iron. 

In Michigan's net, it was the opposite. They didn't play a great defensive game, ceding many chances off the rush early and hung Erik Portillo out to dry. He had to stop a few breakaways, one 2v0, and a number of other looks in tight, especially early on. Portillo was matching Perets blow for blow there, both guys allowing one rush goal but otherwise strong. Where it deviated was the howlers, the softies, and the general sense of confidence in the crease. Portillo, from the very beginning, was a regression to his early season self. He looked uncomfortable and was swimming in the crease, coming out very far to make saves (something I noted in the preview), which left him exposed on rebounds, and he had immense trouble getting back to his posts. It was the breakdown in structure and technique I talked about during the season, a return of all of his worst habits with  mighty vengeance.

That's what allowed Quinnipiac to bank two goals in off of him and score on one saucer shot from the wall with no direct screen in front. Three rancid goals that should never be going in, the last of which being an atomic bomb-sized destruction of Michigan's morale and psyche in the game. Those goals were a collective backbreaker and completely washed away all the good saves Portillo had made at times to keep Michigan in it. One of the worst games of his season (and Michigan career) and at the worst moment, heartbreaking to the team and to your author especially as the longtime Erik Portillo stan at this site. Michigan didn't play an incredible game as a team; they weren't clearly better than the Bobcats or tilting the ice to some extreme extent. But they played well enough to have a good shot of winning and at the very least, get to overtime. They never got there because of goaltending and not much more needs to be said, because of how important goalies are to your chance of winning a game. Sometimes, it's that simple.

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And so we arrive at the end. The bus has made its final stop and it's time to close the book on the 2022-23 Michigan Hockey team. It was a season unlike any other, a statement that was true from early August 2022 right up until the end. It featured a coaching carousel that was frankly more circus than carousel, the five year head of the program booted out, far later than made any sense given the alleged behavior detailed in the report. It gave a first time head coach at any level of hockey, a man barely old enough to run for President of the United States, the keys to the car and with only two months to prepare for the first game. He spent that period having to hire new coaches and staffers, not to mention solidifying the roster and preventing any players from bailing. 

Before the team took the ice, their projected #2 center was ruled out for many months, handicapping the offense from the start. Then the season got going, playing well until conference play began when more matters beyond the control of the players took over. Michigan had to play their first B1G series without their starting goalie. Then they had to play their third B1G series with a third string goalie dressed as a forward because half the roster was down for the count with an illness, one player severely so. Michigan's fifth B1G series was played without their superstar forward because of World Juniors training camp obligations for Team Canada. By the time Brandon Naurato had coached his first half-season at Michigan, it felt like he'd been to hell and back with obstacles, inflicted on him by the athletic department/university management, Hockey Canada, and whichever supernatural forces you choose to believe in that control our individual health and wellness. 

They began to get something resembling a full team in the second half, but they did lose a trusty top pairing defenseman for the season in late January, before they ever got that #2 center back. And when he did return, he was a solid player but far from the one he was projected to be, likely playing at less than 100%. Regardless of the challenges thrown their way, the team got to winning ways in January, continuing through February, and then finding another gear in March. They backed into the 2nd seed of the B1G Tournament but took the opportunity and ran with it, playing some of the best hockey they'd played all year in the semis and finals of the conference tournament. They won that crown and secured a legacy for the team. A legacy they'd build on in winning two more games in Allentown, PA, going to the program's 27th Frozen Four, even if that ride came up two wins short. Again. 

At the end of the day, I don't think there's a ton that you can be furious about with this season. The ending was difficult to take but most Michigan Hockey fans would've been satisfied if they had been about the accomplishments of the season back in September. This was a top five team in the country that secured two more banners to hang in the Yost Ice Arena rafters. That's not nothing. They graduated significant talent in the offseason, icing a roster that was very heavy on freshmen for much of the season (a significant disadvantage in college hockey) and so from that angle, this was a year of impressive achievements. On the other hand, they did return a starting goalie who was strong the year prior and a top five draft pick on defense, and added three or four first round talents as freshmen, including a special talent who was the literal best player in the country. From that lens, making the Frozen Four and cobbling together a top five team was simply meeting expectations. No matter how you want to view it, the bottom line is largely satisfactory. 

That isn't to ignore the frustration Michigan Hockey fans may feel about the national title drought. I'm not sure what to say at this point, besides my overarching belief that national championships are not the best way to measure the success of a college hockey program. The national championship is a random jump ball between the top teams in a given year. Quinnipiac was one of the best teams this year no doubt. Does winning on Saturday validate them as the best? Not in my book. They were the best on that night. Winning a national title in this stupid tournament doesn't make you the best team or the best program, it means you got the dice to roll your way. We've now entered into an era where at least the team winning the trophy is consistently one of the best five or so teams in a given year, but which year you win it (if you ever do) is still mostly random. The drought goes on for now... it doesn't mean Michigan Hockey is not an elite program, as they absolutely are. It means that for now, we're cursed. Just keep getting back to the Frozen Four regularly and one year, it's bound to happen (at least, you'd think so). 

[David Wilcomes]

All things considered, I'm pleased with the results of this season. It's not a moody or sour feeling like last year, like you missed The Chance. Michigan iced a very good team, got mostly rewarded for it, and the dice didn't roll their way because the goaltending didn't hold up that night. Oh well. Winning a conference tournament title and making it to the Frozen Four is nothing to sneeze at. In the past four seasons that were played to completion, only one other program in the conference has taken home conference hardware and appeared in the Frozen Four in the same season: Minnesota. And both Michigan and the Gophers have now done it back-to-back years. Every program save for QPac, Denver, and maybe Duluth or UMass fans still drunk on the past would kill for that. Don't take it for granted.

Nor should we take for granted getting to watch players like Adam Fantilli, Luke Hughes, Mackie Samoskevich. If this is it for all three (it is for sure for Luke), they were a joy to watch and I'm glad we got the memories we did out of them. The 2022-23 team shouldered a ton of adversity and came out the other side better for that, a program with a better culture, a stronger foundation, and a new coach with an opportunity to implement his vision and systems on a grander scale. Difficult to be furious about that, as much as a national title would've been nice. 

 

[James Coller]

HockeyBullets

About the Portillo goals. They were bad! Oh, you want more details? Okay, fine. The first goal came after a nervy sequence where Portillo was swimming quite a bit. He got back setup properly and faced the initial shot and made the save. It went off his blocker, over the net and though he struggled to find it at first, he clearly looks behind himself and sees it. And yet, rather than hugging the post, he stays on his knees at the edge of the crease, with just his left leg tight against the post. This leaves his backside exposed as a target to bank it in: 

When the puck went behind the net and he saw it, the first thing you do in that situation as a goalie is get up tight to the post and hold it down. You never ever see a goalie in the position he's in when the puck is behind the net and I can't explain why he's sitting there other than it makes no sense. 

The second goal was off a breakaway, five-hole which isn't great but we'll let it slide because it was on an A+ chance and if it was the only goal Portillo gave up all night, Michigan would be in the title game. The third goal was the second bank-shot variety: 

I want to first note that I have no idea what Casey or Edwards are doing on the rush defense here, charging back towards the puck-carrier initially but then completely relenting their pursuit altogether, seeming to fall back towards a trailing Bobcat who isn't a part of the play. Then, after the shot is taken, they don't hustle after the rebound and instead both wind up in the crease at first. So yeah, that's weird, but it doesn't excuse what happens with Portillo. He makes the first, massive high-danger save. He doesn't squeeze it, which is subpar and harkens back to issues he had earlier in the year with the glove hand, but that alone is not the death knell.

The problem is, again, the recovery. Portillo spends a maddeningly long amount of time on his knees outside the crease before finally getting up. He peeks to see where the puck is before getting back in his net and that costs him. The shooter is back on the puck and again sees Portillo's hulking backside as a target to bank the puck in off of. I will reiterate: WHEN THE PUCK IS BEHIND THE NET, GET ON YOUR POSTS. Someone asked me on twitter if the bank shots were a special move Quinnipiac does often and my response was that nearly every player in NCAA Hockey, if put in that situation (puck behind the net, goalie out at the top of the crease with his back to you) is at least going to attempt a bank shot. Michigan might've been unlucky that both attempts went in, but not that QPac tried it. Portillo was asking for it there. 

Like the glove issue, the recovery time problem has been a mystifying hiccup for Portillo all year long, spending unfathomably long amounts of time laying on the ice or on his knees before getting up at a speed best compared to that of a senior citizen from the dinner table after a long meal. It cost him several goals throughout the year and is also an issue that was not present his freshman or sophomore years. Why it suddenly took him so long to get up this season, I don't really know. 

The last goal just can't go in: 

I don't care if the shot is initially obscured from Portillo's view by Rutger McGroarty going out to challenge, this is a shot that cannot go in. Stand tall, use your size, make a save. These are the kinds of saves that destroy a team in a game and Michigan was done the moment it went in. You can see it in the reaction of the players on the ice moments after it happened, Fantilli most notably. The goalie let them down and Portillo knew that too. Just sucks that one of the very worst goals he's given up all year mattered that much. 

In totality, it was a distillation of the various problems we've seen all coming together in one meltdown. The glove-hand problem, the rebounds, coming way outside the crease to take on shooters, and the slow recovery time. I described Portllo's season at points during the year as a total breakdown of his technique and this game showcased that. He's still a big, athletic goalie who makes a lot of high-danger saves. The Los Angeles Kings' development staff has a template to work with, but it almost feels like they have to get him back to square 0 and build him back up because of how much basic, Goalie 101 stuff he needs to re-learn and master. 

[David Wilcomes]

Robert Gordon "Seamus Casey" Orr. The most incredible play of the game was the Seamus Casey goal, no doubt about it. An attacking solo rush from a defenseman that undresses the Quinnipiac D and finishes in tight, special stuff: 

SHOWTIME! Florida native Seamus Casey and it's 1-1#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/1EP7R5TqH9

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) April 7, 2023

I thought Casey had some bumps defensively in this game, but also he would probably benefit from having a steadier partner than Ethan Edwards next season. The offensive upside is legit though and we saw it in this game. Casey had a fine freshman season and will likely be back for next season as A) New Jersey has no immediate need on their blue line and B) it's very rare to see a defenseman go one-and-done in the NCAA, even more so for a 2nd rounder. Next season should be liftoff time for Casey, getting a much larger role and the assignments that once went to Hughes. He's got the best hands on the team and could transform into a monster in 2023-24 and I am here for it. 

The Luke Hughes Rollercoaster. This was Hughes' final game in a Michigan uniform, and the last stand for the Hughes family at Michigan until this generation reproduces and gives us future Hughes children to suit up for Michigan Hockey in the late 2040s. By that time, the whole MGoBlog staff will have been replaced by AI and this column will be written by a computer generated Alex Drain. I can't say it was a great final game for Hughes to go out on, but there were the high highs: 

Adam Fantilli from Luke Hughes and Rutger McGroarty and it's 2-2#GoBlue〽️ pic.twitter.com/ALeIYuFgip

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) April 7, 2023

Unfortunately, Luke was also a wreck defensively. He was alarmingly beaten while back-checking on the second QPac goal, was too fancy in the offensive zone at times, leading to turnovers and chances the other way, and got caught napping for a near tap-in here: 

As Luke Hughes' college career wraps up, I find myself more uncertain about his NHL profile than I did Quinn. Luke, to me, has a greater chance of being an all-time superstar, but also a much lower floor. Quinn, for the flak he got at Michigan as a puckrusher, was better defensively than Luke and I would've loved to see Quinn on a Michigan team with the sort of talent that Luke got to play with. Many of Quinn's problems were related to being asked to do too much in that second season, when the roster was bare bones offensively after Josh Norris got hurt. He still had his warts going into the NHL in the defensive end and to Quinn's credit, he's improved tremendously in that aspect. Luke's got farther to go on the defensive end but also has a more explosive, flash-of-lightning element to his game relative to Quinn. Luke could end up being a truly exceptional player in the NHL... he could also be a PP specialist who is a luxury/gadget player that can't ever be trusted to see serious minutes. 

[David Wilcomes]

QPac's neutral zone trap. The announcers during the Frozen Four game kept shouting out QPac's 1-3-1 trap like it was a Bigfoot sighting but despite all the airtime it got, I didn't think it was very effective. Michigan's speed and skill didn't get bogged down by it the way we see them do against Notre Dame. The Wolverines established possession plenty of times by slicing right through it and they were still able to create plenty of looks in-zone. Not just the two goals, but the two posts hit, the great chance for Rutger McGroarty on the PP, they created quite a bit of offense. The trap was effective in slowing down the rush offense (which was pretty much guaranteed) but it didn't do a ton to choke the life out of the game or keep Michigan in the neutral zone. It was a nice showing from the forwards in that regard I thought. 

Adam Fantilli has the Hobey. It came a day after the unfortunate ending to the season, which made it relatively somber, but Adam Fantilli won the Hobey Baker Memorial Award as the best player in college hockey. I wrote up the post on Friday so I don't have much more to add but it was deserved. An incredible season for a great player, so dominant that the voters couldn't come up with a reason not to give it to a freshman who is destined for the NHL. Also awesome for the program to get a third winner to keep building the Michigan's legacy and history. If this is it for Fantilli, you can't say he didn't leave his mark. 

[David Wilcomes]

Depth scoring improvement. One thing I will be watching to see if Brandon Naurato can improve over his tenure relative to Mel Pearson is developing four year program guys who can contribute in depth roles. With skills consulting in his background, this should be Naurato's specialty and I think it could use some work, relative to other teams we saw at the Frozen Four. QPac is obviously all non-NHL type players that Rand Pecknold carefully scouts and selects for the program and then coaches up over four years. But even Minnesota under Bob Motzko has been very effective at developing non-top end NHL talents into very productive players. Ben Meyers, an undrafted player, was their 1C last season and a foremost Hobey candidate. They got 19 goals this season out of Bryce Brodzinski, a 7th round pick back in 2019. 10 goals each from Mason Nevers and Jaxon Nelson, not to mention the undrafted Mittelstadt brothers who each scored over the two games this past weekend.

During Pearson's tenure, Michigan recruited and developed basically one guy of consequence, Nick Blankenburg. When Pearson came in, he was handed Cooper Marody, a sixth rounder who developed into a dynamo NCAA player as a junior, like what Meyers was to Minnesota last year. He also got senior Tony Calderone handed to him, an undrafted player who scored 25 goals that year, and even Dexter Dancs chipped in a cool 12. Together those three were one of the best lines in college hockey and none had serious NHL potential. And then after the DMC line left... nothing really. It didn't matter as much because Pearson built the program into one with first rounders pouring out their ears, but it would be nice to have that *and* be able to churn out a Calderone or a Marody with more frequency, which I think Minnesota is better at than Michigan right now. The Wolverines got very little against QPac outside of their mega-stars, which was almost enough because the mega-stars were so good, but a more balanced and deeper lineup could go a long way.  

[David Wilcomes]

Some quick thoughts about next season. I will probably do a Let's Start Again - Hockey piece in a month or two once we have a better sense of the roster, but there are starting to be some developments already. As Seth reported on yesterday, Erik Portillo is off to the pros (no surprise there), while seniors Eric Ciccolini, Nick Granowicz, and Keaton Pehrson have entered the transfer portal to use their COVID-shirt elsewhere. I suppose it's possible some of those guys could return, as Nolan Moyle did last year, but let's assume they are gone. Luke Hughes has signed with the New Jersey Devils and so my main focus of professional attention then goes to Jacob Truscott and Mackie Samoskevich. Reporting today from Rick Dhaliwal out in Vancouver says that Truscott appears likely to return to Michigan for his senior season, which would be good news. Samoskevich is one I assume will leave, as he's on a similar path to Brendan Brisson last year, but it's also not crazy that he could return. 

Let's say then that Truscott is back and Samoskevich is gone. The only other player that is likely up in the air is Adam Fantilli, as my strong assumption is that Seamus Casey and Ethan Edwards will both return. Fantilli, likely the 2nd or 3rd pick in the upcoming June draft, would seem quite likely to be off to the NHL but similar to Samoskevich, it's not completely crazy that he could want to come back for unfinished business reasons or the like. The incoming recruiting class is not terrific, but there are some pieces I like. No one will replace Fantilli, but a fully healthy Frank Nazar could go a long way towards filling that gap. If Samoskevich is gone, Nick Moldenhauer from the USHL looks like a rock solid replacement to me. A top line of McGroarty/Nazar/Brindley and a second line of Duke/TJ Hughes/Moldenhauer is quality. 

At that point, you're mostly focusing on cobbling together a bottom six, with only Estapa and Hallum as regular returners. I'd assume larger roles for Kienan Draper and Philippe Lapointe, while incoming freshmen Charlie Cerrato, Mikey Burchill, and Garrett Schifsky are plausible options to plug in at the bottom of the lineup. Portal hunting here wouldn't hurt either. On the back end, getting a COVID-shirt on Jay Keranen would be a smart idea. If you do so, then him + Casey/Edwards/Holtz is four defensemen back, with Luca Fantilli having played games this year and Jacob Truscott now likely in the picture. If Truscott is back, you have enough for a lineup right there, with Johnny Druskinis (who I liked in limited viewing) as a 7th D. I've got no issue with that. Portal hunting still makes sense here too, and Brian did mention Harvard's Ryan Siedem on the podcast. He would be a nice get. 

Frankly the biggest question is in net. Michigan is bringing in Marcus Brannman from the USHL, a decent player in that league but nothing that jumps off the page for me as someone who should be trusted to be the only option in net next season. Noah West was in the portal but has now withdrawn. I can't say I feel great about the idea of rolling with Brannman + West, I'd much prefer to get a safe option out of the portal, but we shall see. The biggest question of the offseason for me.