brandon naurato

When Michigan lost in the Frozen Four each of the last two years I wrote a game column style piece about the loss in the aftermath. This year, after Michigan's 4-0 defeat to Boston College in St. Paul last Thursday, I didn't quite feel the same way. There wasn't much of a game column to write because there wasn't much of a game that happened. Michigan trailed less than two minutes into the contest and never scored. They were competitive for awhile but before the 2nd period was up the game was over. The third period was simply obligatory. The Wolverines were dispatched by a far superior side. 

I have no narrative to speak of but certainly have some thoughts on the games and the season as a whole. So, today we'll go through it all, Hockey Weekly style: 

HockeyBullets About BC 

Overall... okay? I wasn't particularly despondent about the way Michigan played against Boston College. They went up against a team that was definitely better, Michigan played maybe a B-level game and BC played an A-level game. Michigan also got pretty unfavorable puck luck (the double deflection goal stands out) and that combination makes the score 4-0. Perhaps you do that game over again and Michigan loses 3-1 instead. They didn't choke, they just ran into their reasonable finish, having gotten as much out of this roster in the postseason as one could've expected. 

Pulling back the curtain on the underlying numbers. We talked about Boston College's possession numbers in the preview and this game was a pretty clear example of what those possession metrics look like. BC doesn't play with the puck as much as some elite teams and do let opponents shoot a decent amount, but they are a strong defensive team that limits how much the opponent gets near the net. They're well structured in their own zone and kept Michigan to the outside. The Wolverines held the zone, took shots, but with a good goalie in net and a roster of players who use their sticks and block shots well, it makes it difficult to score on even if you have the puck a lot. 

And then of course BC gets the opportunity to attack you in transition the other way. Michigan held the zone in the opening minute, got a look or two, and suddenly Seamus Casey is trapped in the OZ, the puck's turned over, and it's a 2v1. BC finishes it off and Michigan is trailing just like that. The Eagles didn't get a tremendous amount of rush chances, but they got some dangerous ones, also getting a breakaway that Cutter Gauthier scored on and a mini-break for Ryan Leonard that Jake Barczewski made a great save on. 4v4 play was an issue for Michigan, which was going to be a worry against a team as skilled as Boston College and allowed them to score off the rush even more. Michigan was spared by less PK time against this lethal PP, but the flip side was the 4v4 time, which proved just as deadly. You pick your poison against this team, Michigan was maybe moderately unlucky in their goal prevention, but at the end of the day they didn't score and that's a testament to BC's underrated defense and goaltending. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: takes, grades, 2024-25]

3/29/2024 – Michigan 4, North Dakota 3 – 22-14-3 

3/31/2024 – Michigan 5, Michigan State 2 – 23-14-3, Frozen Four 

Twice this Easter weekend Michigan Hockey plodded onto the ice, through the tunnel that led from the shanty locker rooms to the playing surface inside this bizarrely small NHL practice facility in suburban St. Louis, facing the biggest twenty minutes of their season. Make it or break it to continue playing hockey with this same group of 26 men. On Friday night, Michigan was down 2-1 entering the third period against a team that was 20-0-0 this season when leading after two. On Sunday night, Michigan was tied 1-1 against a team that had, consistently in the season series, closed games better than they had. 

In both cases, Michigan authored a final period for the ages. Friday night's dramatic eruption, three unanswered goals (two in the first three minutes) against North Dakota to wrestle control of the contest, seemed like it was going to be the third period of the season. The one we look back on years in the future and think, "that third period was the best they played all season". But then Sunday's may have been better. Save for a two minute stretch that saw Michigan commit a stupid penalty and then give up a tying goal on an even stupider penalty kill coverage breakdown, Michigan threw haymaker after haymaker and asserted themselves as the better team on that day. They scored four times on Michigan State's vaunted goalie, and all of them were tremendous high skill plays that left the goalie little chance. 

On both nights, Michigan seemed to find a fire. They flipped a seeming switch and after two even periods decided "no, we're the better team in this game". The manner in which the Wolverines throttled North Dakota was astonishing, especially after two iffy periods preceding it. They outshot the Fighting Hawks 14-1 at one point in the third period and put the three goals in the net to flip the score from 2-1 to 4-2. There were a few wobbly moments in the 6v5 play, but that dominance was enough to get it done. At 5v5, Michigan was head and shoulders better than NoDak on that night, after they hadn't been at all over the prior 40 minutes. It left a Dakota team, which was so accustomed to comfortably slamming the door on games they were leading, stunned over what had happened to them. 

[UMich Athletics]

In the Sunday game, the true "flip the switch" moment came after the Spartans tied it at 2. Michigan had been the better team in the first half of the third period, but it was only by a nose and I don't think it was too out of whack from the first 40 minutes. The opening two periods were pretty even, each team getting some looks, scoring a goal and having their goalies look sharp to keep the score deadlocked. Michigan began to inch ahead in the third and went up 2-1, but gave it back on the penalty and subsequent PK blunder. The score was tied 2-2 with time perilously slipping away, anyone's guess on what was going to happen next. 

If you were a Michigan partisan, you may have had that sinking feeling based on how previous meetings this season between Michigan-MSU went. MSU, generally, had closed out games better. They also had, generally, gotten the bounces. No better example of this than the game last weekend. It felt in that moment that perhaps Michigan had blown their chance to put the game away with the power play goal they'd ceded. But then came the flip the switch moment, when Michigan's highest skilled players decided "enough with this nonsense, we're winning this game". Dylan Duke, known primarily for greasy goals and who fell in the NHL Draft three years ago due to his subpar skating, decided to look like Connor McDavid with a rush down the wing, toasting the defensemen, deking Trey Augustine, and slipping the puck by him far side.

And then, before you could pick your jaw up off the floor, Michigan took advantage of a scattered Spartan neutral zone right off the ensuing center ice face off to spring Frank Nazar III with a rush down the wing. Nazar pulled off the Deke/Pass of the Century going between the legs and then snapping a pass across to Gavin Brindley, past the MSU defender, and right in Brindley's wheelhouse. Brindley made no mistake and rifled the puck by the sliding Augustine, who had very little chance to come up with this one. Two goals in 12 seconds, 2-2 to 4-2 just like that. A 50-50 game to a 90-10 win probability game in the blink of an eye. Michigan's punishing 5v5 defensive structure salted the game away, MSU took a late penalty that Michigan scored on, and that was that. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Michigan's 2024 turnaround]

3/16/2024 - Michigan 2, Minnesota 1 - 21-13-3 (10-10-2-2 B1G) 

Entering this weekend, Michigan Hockey had held a third period lead against an opponent and not won the game in regulation eight different times, out of 36 total games. That doesn't include games that were tied in the third, only to see the opponent edge past the Wolverines late, or the matchup against Michigan State in January that Michigan led 4-1 in the second period, because they blew the entire lead in the second period (four straight goals against in the span of ~seven minutes). To say the Maize & Blue have had trouble finishing games off in the third period is an understatement. It's been the defining theme of this season. 

Poor defense has also been a theme too often. Michigan is only middle of the pack in goals against nationally but considering that they are a team ranked in the tournament picture, it isn't good. Michigan is tied for the most goals against per game among the 16 teams currently in the tournament picture. They have a tremendous offense, top five in goals per game scored with a historically great power play, but the other half of the game they have struggled with often this season. Michigan typically blows leads in the third period because they are not a good team at keeping pucks out of the net, period. 

Against Minnesota in particular, it's been a major problem. Coming into Saturday night, three of those eight third period blown leads came at the hands of Minnesota. Those three games constituted three of the four games that Michigan played against Minnesota this season. They led the first game 3-1 in the second before conceding a goal with one second left in the 2nd period and then two in the third. They led the second game 2-1 entering the third period and ended up having to win in a shootout. And then two weeks back, a backup-goalie meltdown saw Michigan need overtime to win a game that they led 3-0, 4-1, and 5-4, all in the third period. It's been a bit of a broken record of the same problems and especially in this matchup, the same opponent. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: What changed]