Wilson Decommits

Jalen Wilson will not in fact wait for the new hire to start looking around:

Respect My Decision pic.twitter.com/SRMQUEqRm7

— jwill (@thejalenwilson) May 16, 2019

In my opinion, this is Bad.

Roundtable Revelations

Let me transcribe a bit of the WTKA roundtable for you here. First from Sam on Billy Donovan:

"The talk in coaching circles is that … he was really a cheater in a huge, huge way early in his tenure. And then, as he got established he didn't do it any more. … There's like a before and after Anthony Grant."

Grant was at Florida for the first half of Donovan's 19-year tenure in Gainesville. His departure in 2006 was between Donovan's two national titles; after the second title team Donovan had his worst stretch after getting established at Florida with a three year run in which Florida went 8-8, 9-7, and 9-7 with just one first round exit to show for it. After that Donovan went on a four year run that went E8, E8, E8, FF and won the SEC title three times.

So if the coaching chatter is true Donovan had an extended run of elite teams in a post-Grant world. Coaching chatter is just that—when Roy Williams got Donovan investigated they didn't turn anything up. Potentially informative about Donovan's ability to operate within the strictures Michigan would put on any head coach.

[UPDATE: also potentially irrelevant since Sam says Donovan took a pass. At least they poked?]

Then Sam on Nate Oats:

"Nate would not interview. If you're going to go after Nate Oats, you have to give him the job. … If you offered Nate the job, would he come? Yeah. My opinion. … You call him you can get him. You can get Nate."

Later:

"Let me be clear for Nate's benefit: I have neither seen nor heard anything about Nate Oats being a candidate for this job."

And on Juwan Howard:

"[Lack of head coaching experience] is not a disqualifier for Juwan Howard … He's the exception. I'm not telling you that he's going to be the guy but he is definitely under consideration for this job. He is not looking at any other college options. He's gonna be a pro coach at some point."

He also asserted that it was unlikely to be an internal hire. Like everyone, he's on board with doing as much as possible to keep staff continuity.

[After THE JUMP: It turns out I don't hate the idea of Shaka!]

The most NBA Jam candidate

[Bryan Fuller]

Shaka Smart has been brought up. You may remember him from such games as Shaka Smart Is Shown His Liver By John Beilein and such recruitments as Not Quite Getting Mo Bamba. Shaka has a giant, fully-guaranteed contract but Texas might be happy to let him walk after a disappointing four year tenure.

Texas has two bids in that time, a 6 and a 10, with two first-round exits. They did win the NIT this year, and Smart has some mitigating factors. 5-star PG Andrew Jones was set to be a star after a high-usage freshman year; he was diagnosed with leukemia shortly after and has played just 12 games since. Smart's also lost a ton of tight games over the past three years. Texas in Kenpom's "luck" stat: 348, 263, 332. Shaka's VCU tenure did not have a similar pattern. It's likely the luck is just that.

Like a lot of B12 teams, Smart's Kenpom rankings are better than his record (39, 70, 36, 25 at Texas FWIW), but guys like Steve Prohm aren't at Texas. Smart has leveraged his spot in Austin into elite recruiting classes. In four years he's gotten three five-stars and nine more guys in the 40-70 range. Jaxson Hayes, one of the only sleeper-ish recruits Smart has gotten, is projected as a lottery pick in the upcoming draft. Texas is recruiting better than anyone other than the one-and-done blueblood factories. And they were in the NIT this year.

His VCU tenure was legitimately excellent, outstanding even outside of the Final Four run. Smart never had a team ranked worse than 56th on Kenpom and went 18, 25, 30 in his final three years. Five straight bids with a couple 5 seeds and a 7 from an A10 program is superb. But:

Havoc did not come with Smart to Texas. This is like watching a John Beilein team suddenly degrade to average in TO rate once he gets a major job. What's the point of Shaka without Havoc? So far there isn't much of one.

Shaka is in a spot where you can only get him if you don't really want him. Maybe you could squint and put Shaka's recruiting with Yaklich's defense and that would work out, but that's apparently contingent on out-bidding the Cavs. Here's a 180: I hate the idea of Shaka way less than most of the fanbase. An assassin on the recruiting trail has a relatively high floor, and Michigan would be buying low on a guy who's been snakebit the last few years.

Etc.

Porter Moser's name has receded and he just hired an assistant so chances are that early blip was just folks looking around for the guy who fits the "Michigan Man" stereotype most thoroughly. At least you are learning this with a link and not a tweet that starts with "Sources: Porter Moser" pasted into your slack chat:

Thoughts and prayers for me in this trying time.

Chris Beard: still nope.

"He's a great coach. He has history at Texas Tech and he proved he can win there immediately,” ESPN college basketball analyst and former Michigan player Tim McCormick said. “He's a hero and he makes a ton of money, so I think it's really going to be a challenge for Michigan to get him.

“If he was interested, I would think that that process would've already started, and it doesn't appear that that's the direction it's going."

This puts the talk about his daughters down in print:

As McCormick pointed out, whether Beard would even be interested in Michigan is another matter, especially considering his daughters live a few hours from Lubbock.

Guy is getting paid a brazillion dollars and has a very compelling reason not to go far away.

EMOTIONAL DEVASTATION LEVEL

8.3, why Wilson gotta go like that cool it for like a week