We wait. [Bryan Fuller]

On Harbaugh Watch 2022 Comment Count

Seth January 10th, 2022 at 2:30 PM

I guess we should talk about this. Rumors starting swirling last week that the Raiders were going to offer Jim Harbaugh uncanny money to take over in Las Vegas, and that Jim is going to hear them out. People keep asking me what I’ve heard, and I’ve pointed them to the premium message boards because I’m not an insider. Other than some peripheral people who tell me things, I know dickety doo except what goes out in public, or what I get from 247, On3, and Rivals. If you want insider information you should pay the insiders for that.

Those insiders have done their best to keep up, but the list of sources who know anything here is small enough that real information is scarce. Both Sam Webb of The Michigan Insider/247 and Chris Balas from The Wolverine/On3 have reported that Raiders interest is real, and also that Michigan has a new offer on the table that rewards Harbaugh for last year’s turnaround and increases the assistant pool. Presumably there’s at least enough to bump up some of the young assistants on prove-it contracts and still have enough to play the field for a Nua replacement. The insiders are also convinced that a new contract will come with promises to manifestly change Michigan’s approach regarding changes in the competitive environment, which various people close to Harbaugh have suggested are more important than his own paycheck.

Harbaugh isn’t talking, whomever he’s talking to in Las Vegas isn’t talking, and what we’re getting are reflections of what he’s said to his staff, what people who know him well think, and then a lot of dubious third-hand stuff from a guy who knows a guy who thinks he knows a thing that he doesn’t really.

The latest from Sam Webb($) is that Harbaugh hasn’t told Michigan what he’s doing yet, but hasn’t stopped doing his job. Previous updates from Sam said Michigan is going to have to wait him out($), and that Harbaugh intends to listen($) to what the NFL has to offer. Balas has been tracking the ups and downs($) that staff inside the building have gone through. There are many interesting details about those points behind the paywalls. Most of the rest of the insider information matches what John U. Bacon et al. are getting from people they talk to, which is that money (for himself) isn’t what Harbaugh cares about.

That’s the end of information. Let’s speculate what it all means.

[After the JUMP: Live turkeys vs jive ones]

Don’t we get this turkey jive every year?

Rival coaches, one in particular, have been trying to use “He’s going to the NFL” against Michigan in every offseason that they couldn’t sell “He’s going to be fired.” At the same time NFL reporters and the people who talk to them (mostly agents) are convinced that nobody who could be in the NFL would choose not to be. This thinking is so pervasive, the League cycles through coaches so quickly, the list of coaches who’ve taken teams to the Super Bowl is so small, and Harbaugh is so well-known, that there’s never a shortage of jobs that someone is willing to put his name out for. It took only minutes after Miami fired Flores for people to start speculating Harbaugh was taking his place. We kept the “Oakland is Still in Play” t-shirt in the MGoStore for three years because of it.

Sorting through the NFL insiders who don’t just regurgitate what their sources feed them, Las Vegas is the only serious threat. As far as I know, Harbaugh’s nostalgia with the Bears is far weaker than are his personal tethers to Michigan, and if Stephen Ross pulled the trigger on Flores, it was from internal strife over Tua, not because he had Harbaugh on the hook. Ross said today that he's not targeting Harbaugh.

So why is ‘Oakland’ in play now?

Raiders’ owner Mark Davis is a friend of Harbaugh’s, going back to when Al Davis gave Jim his first coaching job. Davis is also a guy known to make bold and decisive moves. Hiring Jon Gruden was a bold move, as was dropping Gruden (who technically resigned) when an NFL investigation into workplace misconduct in the Washington organization turned up Gruden’s gross attitudes in work emails. People who cover the NFL don’t bet against Mark Davis when he wants something, though he doesn’t (stadium in Oakland, moving to LA) always get what he wants.

As best as I can tell, rumors that the Raiders were going to make Harbaugh the highest-paid coach in football are coming from the many objects that orbit Davis, and thus sus. The story about Harbaugh skipping a contract meeting with Michigan is bunk from Chat Sports, whose business model is to fill information vacuums with made-up stories. They’re far from the only bad actors trying to send Michigan fans into a panic with B.S. In times like these, your human brain is expected to do things it wasn't made for, like spotting the difference between a Twitter checkmark and the Heart of Te Fiti after your heart has stopped.

Screenshot 2022-01-10 115929

I know who you are. You know who you are.

What I do find plausible is that Mark Davis indicated to Harbaugh that they’ll make him a competitive offer and name him Imperator Footballius for life plus two weeks. I would believe a lot of teams with less direct connections to Harbaugh have made similar enquiries over the years. The difference between those and this is Harbaugh is going to listen.

Why is it dragging out?

The most serious evidence that Harbaugh wants to hear what the NFL has to offer is that he’s waiting until they can make one. The Raiders made the playoffs last night (by the skin of their teeth) with an interim coach who’s done a pretty good job. In order to move on Harbaugh now, Las Vegas would have to undercut Rich Bisaccia during a playoff run, then go through a public process that includes meeting with ethnic-minority candidates. While a historically progressive franchise on that front (there’s a reason the Davises are Known Friends and Trusted Agents), teams largely pay lip service to the Rooney Rule when they’re zeroed in on one candidate from the start. That does not get them out of the process, however, which means Harbaugh can’t know what the Raiders are willing to offer yet.

The way this played out—the timing of the Raiders interest, the reporting last week of the seriousness of Jim’s intent to listen to them, and then making us all wait over the weekend—makes sense if the Raiders intended to move on Bisaccia if he didn’t make the playoffs. It’s also possible that Harbaugh wanted to know his value, but wasn’t so intent on leaving Michigan that he’s going to wait out the playoffs in this same limbo.

Why is Harbaugh going to listen now? 

Here’s where we’re getting into levels of speculation, not fact. What we know is Harbaugh took a significant pay cut last year after going 2-4. If you recall how that went down, we were twisting in the wind all through Christmas and January last year as well, and Harbaugh’s extension wasn’t signed until after the NFL coaching carousel came to a stop. Michigan certainly did not act like a school that had to get out in front of NFL interest by locking up their head coach. More like they put him on waivers and nobody bit.

While Warde was praised for successfully hedging on Harbaugh, Harbaugh ate a contract that said “We need to be able to pay you half as much and fire you if you guys suck again this year.” I am sure there were plenty of people at Michigan—by which I mean regents, the president, big-time donors, etc.—who wanted to move on, possibly to the extent that Warde had to put his own neck on the chopping block to keep Jim’s off of it.

If something changed in Harbaugh regarding whether he would entertain NFL interest, it almost certainly happened a year ago. The money said one thing, but the way that went down also must have changed the power dynamic.

We all took it for granted that it was Harbaugh who brought in three old Carr guys—a faction that he didn’t get along with in the past—plus Clinkscale, and promoted Sherrone Moore for jobs that used to be held by old football guys or old Harbaugh guys. Credit for those decisions has gone to Harbaugh, who was named the National (but not Big Ten) Coach of the Year in large part for his Beilein-esque staff makeover. Macdonald, the whiz kid gifted from brother John, was clearly a Harbaugh guy, and Helow came as a Macdonald associate. But Mike Hart, Ron Bellamy, and Courtney Morgan were successful program alumni who might have answered the call home from any coach of Michigan. Clinkscale, hired after vagabond Mo Linguist got a head coaching opportunity in March, doesn’t have a Michigan degree, but he came with deep connections in the state of Michigan, and Detroit in particular. Sherrone Moore, promoted from TE coach to OL coach when old school football guy Ed Warinner was put out to pasture, was another guy with important in-state recruiting ties.

Unquestionably, these hires worked out, and chances are good that at least one of them will have Harbaugh’s current job one day. It’s also possible that the football coach who held onto Tim Drevno and Pep Hamilton beyond their sell-by dates learned from his own mistakes and came up with the youth movement on his own. But I don’t know that; it could have been Warde Manuel, who put young people in important positions at Buffalo and Connecticut, encouraged this new direction. The difference we can tell is that when those decisions were made, Harbaugh wasn't in a position to ignore his council like he might have been in the past.

Ultimately, Harbaugh’s incentive-laded 2021 restructuring paid him out as well as his old contract would have for beating Ohio State, winning the Big Ten, and making the playoffs. Harbaugh then turned around and passed all those bonuses right back to athletic department employees who took a hit during the pandemic cutbacks. I assume, based on the timing of that announcement, that part of the reason he did that was to put himself in contrast to James Franklin and Mel Tucker*, who parlayed supposed interest from LSU/USC into huge deals for themselves last November. That’s a potential window into Harbaugh’s priorities, in that he seems to care very much about how he’s seen among his peers, and pays enough attention to such things to assume that others are doing the same. It’s also more evidence to back up the insiders’ claims that Harbaugh isn’t about the money.

I think they’re right, but I also think Harbaugh cares about respect and being wanted. We know from Bacon’s book that part of the reason Jim left the 49ers after 2014 to coach his alma mater was that owner Jed York and Trent Baalke were playing power games. Their side of the story found a ready ear in the NFL media, and their talking points—“He rubs people the wrong way!”—have never gone away. Doubtlessly, Michigan’s leadership isn’t comparable to the People in Charge of Things in San Francisco when that went down. Doubtlessly, Harbaugh felt less like the toast of our town when a substantial portion of the fanbase was sharing Soup memes. Presumably, being put in a position where he had to share power with the Witan after coming in dictating the shade of yellow changed Harbaugh’s sense of how committed to him Michigan really was.

I am comfortable imagining last year’s negotiations as logical and necessary, of seeing the changes made in the program as evidently positive, and understanding that Harbaugh got a great big dose of de-recruiting in the course of all that. He’s a great football coach; how many of those do you know who don’t possess great egos?

Again, I don’t know what’s going on. If I had to guess what’s changed between “Gobble gobble” and “He’s going to listen,” it was probably a lot of things—Michigan’s NIL approach, the frustration of dealing with Michigan’s pedantic admissions office that prevents Michigan from accessing most of the transfer market, the fallout from Dr. Anderson’s scandal and what that’s done to Bo’s legacy. But first on the list had to be January 2021.

* [MSU didn’t even get a better buyout into Tucker’s renegotiation, which tells you Mel was happy to work for $100 million in East Lansing, but he'd rather be making $100 million somewhere else.]

Are there specific sticking points that Michigan won’t budge on?

This is a question I’ve been getting a lot, but again I have to point you to insiders unless you like guesses. I think it’s clear that the frustrations of the modern college competitive environment, and Michigan’s dilly-dally toe-dipping approach to these things while still demanding national relevance, make the Michigan job less plum than some other posts. Even as Michigan adjusts, other schools are going to adjust faster. We clutch our pearls and pretend it’s wrong that Michigan State can take every transfer, or that Texas A&M coaches can direct oil money boosters to the “NIL” accounts of their favorite prospects. Except in certain individual circumstances, I find no moral argument against transfers and paying players. Ethical concerns abound, but we’re talking about an NCAA that has been toothless since it was formed, and barely exists today except to coordinate TV deals, tweak rules, and operate lucrative tournaments.

We’re also talking about a job that’s had these same headaches—to varying degrees—since establishment poster boy Fritz Crisler “cleaned up” the Sabanesque elements of the Yost-Kipke regime. Only in the last decade have Michigan fans begun to seriously question whether Crisler's way (aka "the Michigan way" to everyone younger than Craig Ross), is right.

Harbaugh has consistently been on the side of liberalization, siding with the players on their right to profit from their name and image likeness (NIL) rights, and recommending the one-time transfer rule that’s now been made fact. He’s benefited from those stances with players and parents, even if the national press is loathe to credit him for it. But he’s also been hurt by it. Michigan can’t get transfers past admissions unless they’re early in their football careers or already graduated (Michigan’s grad schools being much more pliable). And by all accounts, Michigan’s been very slow to adjust to a new reality where schools that were dropping wagonloads of bag before are now driving trucks through “NIL.”

I don’t think that Michigan Admissions are going to be moved by any football coach, though I would argue that easing transfer restrictions would be good academic policy.

One sticking point that’s been brought up is use of Michigan’s licensing, specifically the Block M, by the players, which would of course increase their value to real NIL opportunities. M-Den does sell official jerseys, but by player accounts the school has been protective of The Brand. It’s my sense that a compromise can be reached, and fans don’t need to butt in unless one side is being obviously unreasonable. The school could have real concerns about using its imagery with gambling sponsors, which is where a lot of the real NIL stuff is coming from, for example. Working through these differences could be part of the coaching negotiations, but I’m not comfortable taking a side without understanding the details.

This is all to say that while these are probably big concerns of the football coach, they’re probably not going to hash them all out over the coach’s renegotiation table. If Harbaugh is concerned that Michigan will struggle more with a Michigan State that can replace players faster, or an Ohio State with no limits on paying players, that’s valid, but not exactly new. I think Michigan is going to change at their own pace, which pace will keep them in that Lloyd Zone where we can still compete but also maintain that 90th percentile threshold of cleanliness our 90% unhypocritical brand of sanctimony demands.

Here I’ve heard a little more than diddly doo. Insiders seem to agree that the program is coming around on Michigan’s approach to the realities of the new competitive environment with regards to “NIL.” The Harbaugh situation, if it moved the needle at all, may have only done so barely; shifting fan sentiment, and the activism of players like Hunter Reynolds last year, have been more prevalent factors. I know there are some very loyal and very successful program alumni from multiple generations who have been separately pushing for that for some time, and preparing to move once they know it’s not going to cause major issues with the program. State law is going to dictate what can and can’t be done. Everyone says we’re not going to be Texas A&M.

I don't buy the line of thinking that Georgia's talent was a wake-up call for Harbaugh. He has played and coached in the NFL, and coached against Bosas and Micah Parsons, not to mention the guys USC had under Pete Carroll. He's been deeply involved in the recruitments of Rashan Gary, Najee Harris, and Walter Nolen, recruits against Kirby Smart all the time, and his top assistant came from Bama. What do you think Harbaugh didn't know? 

One thing I do believe—and here I’m back to conjecture not facts—is that Harbaugh knew what he was doing. There are things people around a coach usually say when it’s time to Pay the Coach. When rumors popped that Harbaugh was going to listen to an NFL offer, people who know Harbaugh were immediately talking about things Michigan needs to do to take care of their players like other teams’ players get taken care of. It could be a coincidence, hobby horse, or opportunism. But if there’s one observation you can make about Jim Harbaugh after seven years of covering him as head coach of Michigan, if he was going to use NFL interest as leverage for something, it’s wouldn’t be for money for himself, and he would want people to figure that out.

Is Harbaugh staying or going?

The tenor lately says he’s staying, probably with a new contract with money for assistants on the tender, and less pressure on his tether. I think the Raiders interest was real, that Michigan had to definitively demonstrate that they want Harbaugh as much as we ever did, and that Michigan has done its demonstrating. If this drags out until the Raiders’ season is over and their interim coach is let go, worry. If there’s impending Harbaugh news today or tomorrow, we’re going to be fending off jive turkeys for many years yet. I would put my crystal ball on Michigan, but in case it wasn’t clear already, I don’t have one.

Comments

WolvesoverGophers

January 10th, 2022 at 3:05 PM ^

Thanks for an omnibus review of dickety-doo!

Seriously, I respect Coach Harbaugh.  He consistently acts and leads with integrity.  I suspect he knows exactly what he wants and will pursue it until he gets it.  And we will all know what that is when he decides!

I hope that he gets what he wants from the University of Michigan.  And he stays.  I want to see Ryan Day get picked off of third base.

1VaBlue1

January 10th, 2022 at 3:05 PM ^

Thanks for this, Seth - it was a good read, even if it doesn't concretely tell us that he's back!

FWIW, I believe any contract hang-ups are based on his staff and his players, along with his ability to bring in players.  His donating incentive pay to AD staffers this year tracks with what we've heard about him for years - he's not motivated by money itself.

I really hope the school has come around in terms of a centralized 'NIL program' that benefits players.

jimmyjoeharbaugh

January 10th, 2022 at 3:06 PM ^

the thing is that he can have it all. he can get michigan to commit to money for everybody and admissions changes and NIL stuff during the negotiations, and then bail to vegas anyway, leaving the new guy at UM in good shape to do well with all the commitments from the school, and getting to jump to nfl before he's too old. 

that's what i'm afraid of

butuka21

January 10th, 2022 at 3:08 PM ^

Well It sounds like he has 1 foot out the door.  If that is the case go, or this will impact going forward if he has true interest in the NFL then he is not 100% here. I would rather rip the band aid off now then in a year from now. 

stephenrjking

January 10th, 2022 at 3:33 PM ^

Yeah, I think this is off track.

My best guess (it's only a guess, but it fits) is that Harbaugh sees this as the singular, ideal moment in which a move back to the NFL would work. So he's giving it serious thought, in part because this is the last real time in his life where a move to the NFL would make sense like this. If he decides to stay, it's probably for the rest of his coaching career.

Niels

January 10th, 2022 at 3:14 PM ^

Appreciate the piece, Seth. Your honesty about what you know and don’t (like JUB and Sam Webb have been as well) is refreshing. While  I hope he stays, for continuity’s sake if anything, and know less than nothing about what JH is thinking, I can’t help but getting a “moving on” vibe from the silence (something he is not known for). It reminds me of a lot of situations where I (and others) have checked out on a relationship and moved on to the next thing. It reminds me of his departure from SF as well. In any case, if he does stay I hope it’s because he got the best offers possible and turned them down, he deserves another NFL shot if he wants one, but selfishly I hope his utility function is optimized in A^2

Niels

January 10th, 2022 at 3:14 PM ^

Appreciate the piece, Seth. Your honesty about what you know and don’t (like JUB and Sam Webb have been as well) is refreshing. While  I hope he stays, for continuity’s sake if anything, and know less than nothing about what JH is thinking, I can’t help but getting a “moving on” vibe from the silence (something he is not known for). It reminds me of a lot of situations where I (and others) have checked out on a relationship and moved on to the next thing. It reminds me of his departure from SF as well. In any case, if he does stay I hope it’s because he got the best offers possible and turned them down, he deserves another NFL shot if he wants one, but selfishly I hope his utility function is optimized in A^2

Michigan Arrogance

January 10th, 2022 at 3:14 PM ^

Rival coaches, one in particular, have been trying to use “He’s going to the NFL” against Michigan in every offseason that they couldn’t sell “He’s going to be fired.”

 

I could guess, but I'd rather you just name the name(s).

HollywoodHokeHogan

January 10th, 2022 at 3:20 PM ^

“the frustration of dealing with Michigan’s pedantic admissions office that prevents Michigan from accessing most of the transfer market”— is there any evidence of this being a concern for Harbaugh, or is this just putting the blog’s concern into Harbaugh’s mouth?  I’ve heard the rumors about NIL money being important, but this is the only time I’ve seen this come up, and this is also the the place where the standards for transfers are most frequently lamented.   
 

Harbaugh wanting his players taken care of because their peers are getting more $  sounds totally on brand.  Harbaugh, the guy who went to bat for Stanford’s academic standards (do you think it’s easy to transfer in there?) against Michigan’s (!), demanding easier transfer rules is harder for me to swallow.

Seth

January 10th, 2022 at 3:26 PM ^

Yes, it's been a consistent refrain coming from the football program, though they use channels to avoid doing so publicly. I've been on about this, but that got started because the program was sending out "This is bullshit" signals in like 2015 and I started by going "Yeah, they're right" because I've been through it.

jdraman

January 10th, 2022 at 5:20 PM ^

Seth, I appreciate your perspective and insight on the transfer issues for Michigan football, and perhaps the Michigan athletics community more broadly, but I have to respectfully disagree that the problems with transfers are as overbearing and limiting as you make them out to be. I understand that you personally went through transferring to Michigan and that it was a painstaking task for you, but I would really appreciate some presentation of concrete evidence where Michigan lost out on a host of transfers over the past years due to the difficulty of transferring to Michigan. 

While I was a student (graduated a few years ago) I knew around a dozen students who transferred to Michigan from a variety of other Universities and into multiple different schools, programs, and major degree tracks at Michigan. As a student, I even took a few classes outside of Michigan that were quite easily transferred to count as credit for equivalent courses at Michigan and helped me along my degree track. 

Again, I don't mean to entirely dismiss the notion that Michigan will not be able to bring in transfers at the rate of a place like MSU might, but I also firmly believe that the problems with getting transfers for Michigan football is being overblown. I mean, just this year Michigan football is bringing in one of the best transfers available in college football. The basketball team has brought in transfers nearly every season going back to some of Beilein's later years. Could you please provide more demonstrative examples of Michigan losing out on top transfer targets due to difficulty with transfer policies?

nperna12

January 10th, 2022 at 5:58 PM ^

I agree, I just don’t see the transfer thing being as big of a deal as ppl make it. Rarely are transfers successful. Often the ones who were: Justin fields- we could have gotten given their early stage in college.  Also look no further than the players who transfer out of Michigan. The vast majority isn’t leaving because they were starting and great. They are leaving cuz they can’t get up the depth chart anytime soon, I just don’t see the transfer portal changing any programs outside of extremely rare instances. Literally over 1k kids in it.

 

secondly it’s not like Michigan has gotten ones when they wanted them: Shea Patterson. I haven’t seen any evidence of guys we missed out that wound up being a big deal. Back to most players leave cuz they aren’t good enough. 
 

the ones who leave small schools when they prove to be good enough for a shot at the power 5, usually graduate and we can take them, I just am not seeing this as a big issue at all.

 

it reminds me of the nfl, the best teams build through the draft, just like the best CFB programs do so through recruiting. Recruiting is the single largest difference between good and great at Michigan, not transferring.

 

Seth

January 10th, 2022 at 6:53 PM ^

I didn't transfer to Michigan. I changed study abroad programs in Paris to take real Sorbonne classes and ended up having to stick around an extra summer and fall that I could not afford. It's why I know that grits and cucumbers are the cheapest foods you need to get by.

Whatever you personally believe, it's a major issue for the athletics programs, and it was a major issue raised by student government under Michael Proppe a few years ago. You'll note the transfers that basketball brings in are grad transfers, which go through the grad programs, not undergrad admissions.

As for football, let's look at the undergraduate careers of EVERY FOOTBALL TRANSFER SINCE 1990:

  • Victor Oluwatimi, graduated from Virginia
  • Daylen Baldwin, graduated from Jackson State
  • Jordan Whittley, graduated from Oregon State
  • Alan Bowman, graduated from TTU
  • Willie Allen, graduated from Louisiana Tech
  • Shea Patterson, has not completed his degree
  • Mike Danna, graduated from CMU
  • Casey Hughes, graduated from Utah
  • John O'Korn, graduated from Houston
  • Ty Isaac, transferred after 1 year from USC, graduated from Michigan.
  • Jake Rudock, graduated from Iowa
  • Wayne Lyons, graduated from Stanford
  • Blake O'Neill, graduated from Montana State
  • Steven Threet, transferred after 1 year from Georgia Tech, graduated from Wyoming
  • Austin Panter, transferred after 2 years from Butler CC, left 7 years later as a doctor, is now a famous chiropractor.
  • Grant Mason, transferred after 3 years at Stanford, graduated 2 years later from Michigan
  • Spencer Brinton, enrolled in 2001 committing to BYU then 2 years of a Mormon Mission, graduated from Michigan in 2005.
  • Jonathan Goodwin, transferred after 1 year at Ohio U, graduated from Michigan after 4 years.
  • Russell Shaw, transferred after 2 years at El Camino CC. Later returned to M to finish his Michigan degree.

The ones in bold are undergrads. The only one on that whole list who wasn't a graduate or had to spend 4 years at Michigan to get a degree was Grant Mason, who completed his Michigan degree in 2 years after 3 at Stanford. That's it! One guy in 30 years, because Stanford. The rest were graduates or decided that coming to Michigan was worth starting their college careers basically from scratch.

If you're asking for players Michigan didn't get, that's an impossible list to produce, because most of the time when that happens we don't hear the name. Michigan doesn't bother to pursue a guy if he's not a freshman or graduating, and if it gets so far that the recruiting insiders hear about it (from the coaches), they're already confident they can get the kid in. This year Michigan thought they were going to get Jeffrey M'Ba, who definitely wanted to come, but had to tell him no over some snafu with the classes he took during COVID. Two of Shea's teammates were interested in coming with him, especially Jefferson, who ended up at Florida. That's all I can think of off the top of my head. I think the list of guys they did get speaks for itself. MSU brings in that many transfers in a year.

jdraman

January 10th, 2022 at 8:45 PM ^

Well that is a very helpful and enlightening post. Thank you Seth. Also, I'm sorry for mixing up your background, I thought I remembered hearing that you had initially transferred to M. 

I will say that something that I had not considered is whether the transfer player (undergraduate transfer) actually went on to compete their degree at Michigan. I guess when we consider who some of the best non-graduate-transfer players are each cycle, I doubt some of the schools pursuing said players are expecting to have them complete degree programs. Most of the top-flight transfers are probably expecting to stick around for a year or two and then head for the NFL. 

If you're asking for players Michigan didn't get, that's an impossible list to produce, because most of the time when that happens we don't hear the name. Michigan doesn't bother to pursue a guy if he's not a freshman or graduating

This part, however, is a little bothersome to me as it seems like a 'self-fulfilling prophecy'. I mean, the list you provided of all football transfers certainly doesn't provide a great, shall we say, batting average. But, why not at least try? If there's an undergraduate transfer out there at a position of need, at least make the admissions office show you for each individual kid that it's not going to happen. That way, the coaching staff can at least show they will work their hardest for each individual transfer and build some good will amongst players. Perhaps that's a 'pie in the sky' suggestion, but the staff not even bothering to pursue certain players due to status seems defeatist IMO. Maybe every once in a while they might strike luck with a kid from a school whose credits all transfer in for UM-equivalent courses on their degree track. That's not going to happen often though so I guess I can understand the hesitation to commit resources to such an endeavor.

I will note though that Chaundee Brown Jr. was not a graduate transfer per my memory (and a quick google search), but perhaps he also did not finish a degree at Michigan. 

Anyways, thanks for indulging me and providing some more info Seth. I appreciate all you do here. 

JFW

January 11th, 2022 at 9:19 AM ^

I had a buddy who kept getting shit from the admissions office when he was transferring from UM Dearborn to UM Ann Arbor. They kept having issues with his paperwork. Finally, he sent it certified mail. They acknowledged it but gave him a stern talking to about how 'They don't do that'. This was in the early 90's. 

JBLPSYCHED

January 10th, 2022 at 3:22 PM ^

Harbaugh is as insanely competitive as most all coaches are and he's had success both in college and the NFL which is obviously rare. Personally I would tend to agree with Seth that how Harbaugh was treated a year ago sticks in his craw and furthermore I think it motivated him even more than usual this season.

We finally beat OSU, won the B10 Championship and made the CFP. Against Georgia we saw the talent differential between where we are now and the teams that recruit at a truly elite level. Now that Harbaugh has proven he can get that far, it stands to reason that he wants to improve his chances against those elite teams.

Right now that involves moving forward more aggressively with NIL (whatever that even means). Otherwise Harbaugh may feel he has gotten as far as he can at Michigan and could turn his sights back to the NFL before he's too old to do so.

stephenrjking

January 10th, 2022 at 3:30 PM ^

A lot of speculation on speculation. We're good at that, and I engage in it quite a bit. It's all we've got; the people on the inside don't give a lot of insight, and are not required to. 

Believe it or not, I give a bit more credit to Harbaugh for the staff changes than Seth does here. Yeah, Warde may have recommended some significant changes. But keeping Pep and Drev "past their sell-by dates" seems a bit unfair to me. Pep was here for two years. Drev last through 2017, but... do you fire Drev after 2016 when things are looking up? As it was, Michigan hired Greg Frey for 2017, then axed both after 2017's line was a disaster. Pep was defenestrated after 2018, which actually looked pretty good for a significant part of the year. Harbaugh has shown a lot of willingness to fire and hire when needs are visible. 

I've grown less optimistic over the last day or so. Once John U Bacon and Sam Webb started discussing this stuff seriously, it became clear that there was something real going on, because a guy like Sam would get word quickly if there was nothing real here. If Harbaugh is seriously considering leaving, it's a real possibility. I'm pretty sure we'll know within an hour of him deciding that he's going to stay, which means... he hasn't decided to stay yet. 

And, whether he felt harshly put upon last year or not, I'm not offended if he still has a pull to the NFL. He's a football guy. He coached in the NFL, made a Super Bowl, didn't win, it's very easy to think that he believes he has unfinished business there. Frankly, when he got hired, it wasn't inconceivable that he would coach here for a while, do well, get the program running at a high level, and then try the NFL again. 

If he were to leave now, that... is basically what has happened, albeit not exactly how we envisioned it looking. But Michigan has won big and looks primed to keep getting better. If he has been considering the NFL, this is actually a pretty good time to do it from a "I've done what I came to do" standpoint. 

Anyway, I've been wondering for the last couple of days if, while I was punching out some of those posts advocating that Harbaugh and Michigan part ways last year, someone had slipped a monkey's paw into my pocket somewhere. 

ShadowStorm33

January 10th, 2022 at 5:14 PM ^

Here's the thing, though. The serious discussion has seemingly narrowed down to if Harbaugh leaves for the NFL, it would be to Vegas. And there's no city in the US I could less see him coaching in than Vegas. I get the ties to the franchise, but it made so much more sense when they were in Oakland, as he had lived in Northern California for years, and San Diego before that. But Vegas? The same Jim Harbaugh who is seemingly so happy living in Ann Arbor, right next door to his dad, who despite his competitiveness is still a seemingly wholesome family man, who is so Catholic took his football team to meet the pope, is going to uproot his young kids to a city where they hand out fliers for hookers on the street? I just don't see it. At all.

On another note, it's really too bad Kiffen already had his shot and flamed out with the Raiders. Talk about a coach tailor made for coaching in Vegas...

Carpetbagger

January 10th, 2022 at 9:13 PM ^

I'll be honest, I rolled my eyes after Seth said he thought Warde dictated Harbaugh's young hires.

Stop just a second and clear your mind. Imagine the guy who told his GM at San Francisco "This meeting is for people who know about football". Now imagine that same guy taking Manuel's advice on his own staff .

Yeah. Exactly.

RJWolvie

January 10th, 2022 at 3:35 PM ^

Thanks for the fantastic write-up, knowledgeable expert best-guess at what's going on, Seth!

Makes sense that, unless UM stiffs him in some disrespectful manner, which I can't imagine them doing, then I cannot imagine JH, being the guy who "would do this for free", has his dream job with "maybe his all-time favorite team/group of people" or whatever the precise quote was, is going to leave at the end of the day... Unless UM shows disrespect, which they won't, or unless that all JH said & did this year was all bunk or unless Raiders offer so much money & control it makes all that still true but no longer in same weight class, which also I don't see -- then JH will be getting an outstanding new contract AND the program is going to make meaningful steps in the directions &  for the people he cares about, and all will be very well with the UM Football World. It's just not going to happen until the Raiders have their fair chance of making that world-shifting offer (everything has a price; just some prices are too far outside realistic to be met: I think this is a case of that latter for the Raiders). 

The Oracle 2

January 10th, 2022 at 11:51 PM ^

You’re ignoring the disrespect Michigan showed Harbaugh after last season. Name another big time coach who was publicly forced to take a pay cut to keep his job. I don’t think you can. And now he’s seen PSU reward Franklin with a mega deal after two very mediocre seasons.

When Harbaugh left the 49ers, the team tried to portray it as mutual because York didn’t have the balls to say he was getting rid of their most successful coach in years. Harbaugh didn’t say much, but also didn’t play along, saying he didn’t leave the 49ers, they left him. If he ends up going to the NFL, I think what happened last year will a big part of the reasons why.

GoBlueSPH

January 11th, 2022 at 4:02 PM ^

I'm probably in the minority of people here, but I don't see any disrespect by Michigan with regards to Harbaugh last year.  Harbaugh is blatantly a good coach, but the guy was .500 against Wisconsin, Iowa, PSU, MSU, winless against OSU, and 1-4 in bowl games.  He just lost to the worst MSU team I can remember, and barely beat Rutgers.  All this happened while the athletic department suffered huge losses due to covid.  

I feel like Warde respected Jim as a former player and as a coach, and had faith that Jim could turn it around, BUT it was time for some on-field results.  You can't tell me that if Harbaugh were AD that he'd be happy with the on-field results at the end of the last season.  

4th phase

January 10th, 2022 at 3:36 PM ^

Only thing I disagree with on your transfer thread, which many others pointed out, is the graduating from Michigan with less than 60 Michigan credits. 

You shouldn't get a Michigan degree by spending 1 semester there. 2 years is a fair ask if you want the diploma. But players should maybe consider spending 1 year at Michigan, going pro, then finishing with online classes or something. That could be a compromise if they are committed to getting a Michigan degree.

 

 

Seth

January 10th, 2022 at 4:55 PM ^

My computer did a "YOU MOTHERF-- I AM RESTARTING THIS RIGHT NOW I DON'T CARE ABOUT YOUR 8 EXCEL SHEETS THAT ARE UNSAVED I WARNED YOU I NEED AN UPDATE AND I'M DOING IT RIGHT NOW" reset after I had a good long response to you. I want you to know the response was thorough, rock solid, and completely convincing. Since I have to go make the kids dinner now you're going to have to take that on credit.

Short short version: the 1 for 1 thing is the bigger problem--most UM graduates go beyond the 120 threshold because they didn't take 2.5 courses/semester towards their majors starting freshman year. If you've completed 4 semesters and want to transfer to Michigan, you discover you're halfway to your degree but haven't taken a single pre-req. If you haven't taken 101, and you need 101, 102, 201, and 202 to start taking 300- and 400-level seminars required for your major, you have to sit around waiting until 101 is available.

Also Michigan starts their school semesters at the year break (we have fall, winter, then spring-summer trimesters) but most schools go through January.

So if you look at the transfer window, a 2nd year player who wants to transfer to Michigan...

  • Hasn't completed his fall semester at his old school yet.
  • Can't take 101 until the fall of his junior year, which is needed for 102, which is needed for 201, which is needed for 202. There are spring/summer classes that make up for this, but not always, and not in some important spots.

They can't take a guy and not make him aware of that, and as those discussions get going, the player is like "Dude, nobody else even cares about this shit."

4th phase

January 10th, 2022 at 5:26 PM ^

Yeah I saw your response on twitter and I don't disagree. I even said in another thread on this topic that ballooned to several hundred responses: How does Michigan solve this 1 to 1 issue? Is it offering more classes that are similar to what athletes are taking elsewhere? Then you have to offer them to all students and figure out what common courses the school is missing. Do they just become more lax with what counts as similar? That's probably the better route, but who knows. Another option would be to do something like HS does, if you move and come in as a senior, its assumed you took something equivalent to freshman math and writing so you go right into senior classes. Basically waiving all 100 level courses for upperclassman. Which I think is probably do-able. You could do a test out option. Maybe you get 70% on a 101 level exam and you dont have to worry about the class. Michigan already does that for languages for freshman. 

MGoGrendel

January 10th, 2022 at 3:36 PM ^

...which various people close to Harbaugh have suggested are more important than his own paycheck.

Knowing that he gave back his bonus money to help those at Michigan that took pay cuts told me that it's not about the money.