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[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

George Jewett Would Be Proud That This Post Has Graphs Comment Count

Brian October 25th, 2021 at 2:00 PM

10/25/2021 – Michigan 33, Northwestern 7 – 7-0, 4-0 Big Ten

Michigan is 7-0 and has just dispatched an inferior opponent in almost exactly the manner expected to pregame. The Vegas spread was 23.5. The actual spread was 26. Michigan outgained Northwestern two-to-one even if they gave up a 75-yard touchdown. So naturally the Michigan internet is on fire in more or less the same way they would be if the team was hewing close to preseason expectations. (IE: they were butt.)

This is because of a quarterback controversy that currently exists only in the minds of fans. I could explain it but we're Michigan people so someone's already made graphs.

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Cade McNamara is the game manager with limited upside and limited downside who will not lose a game to Northwestern or defanged Penn State or Indiana; JJ McCarthy could be anything and therefore gives you a better shot of cashing this season in at the end of it. The diagram further asserts that McNamara's overall level of play is a titch better than McCarthy's but that doesn't matter for the relevant question.

Because we are Michigan fans the diagrams top out at a 10% chance of beating OSU, and therein lies the mania. For most other programs, this level of performance would be cause for celebration. The quarterback hiccups would be small blemishes on an otherwise impeccable resume, because the last game of the season would not be a gallows. (Or, in Auburn's case, the last game of the season is a gallows that they will escape due to a brief, inexplicable failure of quantum mechanics.)

For Michigan in this moment, every missed deep shot immediately induces not only frustration in the immediate circumstance but reinforces the dread certainty that this guy ain't beating OSU. This would matter less if the team was butt and nobody was beating OSU—although in that circumstance they'd still be calling for the five-star freshman since nobody is beating OSU. You can't win when you're in front of the guy with the woo woo on his 24/7 profile.

----------------------

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this is Cornelius Johnson, not RJ Moten [Bryan Fuller]

I can see both sides of the QB debate. On the one hand I'm pretty negative about McNamara's performances to date, though not as negative as PFF:

McNamara earned a 57.8 passing grade and led the Wolverines to negative expected points added (EPA) per pass play. The Wolverines signal-caller earned a 37.9 passing grade on passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield, as he completed just 1-of-6 pass attempts for 12 yards. At this point, it is painfully obvious that McNamara will not be able to carry Michigan to victory when they need to win through the air. …

McCarthy did miss a couple of throws, but he has already shown his upside in the vertical passing game — he has thrown fewer than 25 passes this year but already has multiple big-time throws. Overall, McCarthy has earned a 90.5 PFF grade in his limited snaps this season.

On the other, "did miss a couple of throws" seems to undersell McCarthy's wobbliness so far. He hasn't felt more accurate overall than McNamara; he just uncorks an eyepopping throw here and there that obscures the other stuff. Also this felt like a reason he's on the bench:

While cool in the moment—before it got called back for a blindside block—that is bonafide High School Crappe that will get you wrecked if you do it too much. There were a couple games early in the Devin Gardner era with similar escapes, and we were very hyped about them. Then Gardner turned in one of the worst plays in Michigan history* against Notre Dame. That's not going to fly. In a telling post-game moment, McNamara was asked about the above "wow" play and flatly said it was dangerous. This is accurate and not fun at all.

Back to the first hand: the picture that above was McNamara throwing an open post way long when his receiver had inside position and the safety had sucked up on a dig. McNamara threw into double coverage to Sainristil when his other option on a two-man-route was open. He put a throw to an open Schoonmaker down the slot in the wrong spot, etc. Thus the PFF grade. Meanwhile McCarthy appears to bring better-than-functional ability as a runner. The thought of combining the extant ground game with a mobile quarterback is really appealing.

I understand that this switch isn't happening until circumstances are dire, and that there are likely good reasons that it hasn't happened already. I also understand people who want to damn the torpedoes and see what Michigan's got. Likely this is moot. All of this is entering Approaching The Lucy Football territory, which is inadvisable since OSU has the top offense in the country by 4.5 points per game according to SP+.

It's possible that "could beat Ohio State" isn't actually the best metric to go on since approximately zero plus 50 percent is still approximately zero. People have differing risk tolerances. Football coaches do not, and that's another way things are moot. It'll be McNamara until it can't be McNamara anymore.

*[Standalone category. IE: how bad was this play in a vacuum, without game context.]

 

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

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[Fuller]

-2535ac8789d1b499[1]you're the man now, dog

#1(t) Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum. This was not planned but seven games into the season these guys are tied in the points standings here. Each turned in spectacular plays in their milieu: Haskins stayed upright in a rugby scrum that turned a four yard run into a 19 yard one while Corum repeatedly WOOPed guys in the hole and then WOOPed the safety coming down trying to put the fire out. Five points each, they're made up and don't matter.

#2 Aidan Hutchinson. This section threatens to become fairly boring. It's going to be one or two running backs and Hutchinson in some order, with game heroes sprinkled in. But, I mean… what can you do? Hutchinson sent the right tackle out of the game with a broken soul. He also got half a sack, further proving that numbers cannot encompass his play.

#3 DJ Turner. Hey, here's someone new. Turner got a thumping TFL early, made a spectacular interception late, and in-between was the target of the worst penalty call in a Michigan-Northwestern game since Karan Higdon got called for holding.

Honorable mention: Erick All was a reliable underneath option and erased some dudes on the edge. The OL kept the QBs clean with one notable exception and consistently delivered guys downfield, except when NW overplayed and it still didn't matter. Josh Ross delivered a number of sticks to NW RBs, nearly had an INT, and could have had a sack but for some holding.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

28: Aidan Hutchinson (HM WMU, #2 Wash, #1 Rutgers, #1 Wisc, HM Neb, #2 NW)
18: The OL (#1 Wash, #1 NIU, HM Neb, HM NW)
17: Hassan Haskins (HM WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU, #2 Neb, T1 NW), Blake Corum (#2 WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU, HM Neb, T1 NW)
8: Ronnie Bell (#1 WMU), Brad Hawkins (#1 Neb)
7: Dax Hill (#3 WMU, HM NIU, HM Rutgers, HM Wisc, HM Neb)
6: Nikhai Hill-Green(HM NIU, #2 Rutgers)
5: David Ojabo (#2 Wisc), Brad Robbins (HM Wash, #3 Rutgers, HM Wisc), Jake Moody (HM Wash, HM Wisc, #3 Neb), Josh Ross (HM Wash, HM NIU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM NW)
4: AJ Henning (HM WMU, #3 NIU)
3: Donovan Edwards(T2 NIU), Roman Wilson (#3 Wisc), DJ Turner (#3 NW)
2: Cornelius Johnson(HM NIU, HM Wisc),
1: Andrew Vastardis (HM WMU),Mike Sainristil (HM WMU),  Mazi Smith (HM Wash), Gemon Green(HM NIU), Chris Hinton (HM Rutgers), Erick All (HM NW)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Difficult selection since Michigan didn't have a scrimmage play longer than 24 yards, but for my money it's the Corum third down run right before Michigan broke up M00N 2, because just look at this:

That turned a dicey redzone proposition into a touchdown, as Michigan just went hurry-up and dove in with Corum right after the above.

 

Honorable mention: Rugby scrum run, Hutchinson dump truck sack, the other Corum run where he WOOPed two guys, James Ross breaking up a third consecutive third down screen.

image​MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Northwestern gets a 75-yard touchdown that sets Twitter on fire for halftime.

Honorable mention: Michigan's drive after the 75-yard TD ends in a fumble on some cute perimeter stuff. McNamara misses various deep shots. Egregious PI call on Turner is egregious.

[After THE JUMP: 1 and 3]

OFFENSE

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[Fuller]

In which radically positive podcast takes are not radically positive enough. I thought Blake Corum was PFF's top-ranked running back and that Hassan Haskins was around 15th. This was actually underselling it:

Corum and fellow backfield partner Hassan Haskins tore up the Northwestern defense Saturday and find themselves first and third, respectively, in the overall running back rankings with Texas’ Bijan Robinson sandwiched between them. Against the Wildcats, the duo produced a 0.58 missed tackle rate and gained a first down or touchdown rushing on 43% of their carries while averaging 5.5 yards per carry and four yards after contact per rush.

This provides a valuable sanity check for Seth's numbers, which are way out of line with historic running back UFR +/-. That does not appear to be an artifact of grading differences between us. They're just real good.

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[Fuller]

Outside bottled up largely. Michigan could not be accused of mindlessly bashing it up the middle in this game. A number of end-arounds got decent to good yardage and if anything Michigan's redzone playcalling could be accused of being too cute on the edge. The above from Henning was productive but required him to zip through a couple tackles, and on other attempts Northwestern successfully bent the ballcarrier away from the LOS.

Two backup guards. Northwestern is a very bad run defense, granted. Still worth mentioning that Michigan did their clobbering without either of their starting guards and the dropoff didn't seem that big. There was the one missed blitz pickup when Northwestern successfully disguised that a safety was coming, and I'm sure there were some run game hiccups. I'll take that performance from backups.

FWIW, this play was discussed in some depth on the podcast. Seth noted that the line call probably did not account for the safety, and I asserted that while that is likely true there are situations where the line call needs to be overridden by your OL spidey sense. When Filiaga checks right here and then left and the guy on the left runs that far away from him this needs to spur some Admiral Akbar in your head:

It's a trap.

Anthony over Baldwin. Andrel Anthony was much more prominent in the second half of this game than he had been all year. One dollar says this is directly traceable to the end of the first half, when Baldwin was tasked with a crack block on a safety that he completely whiffed, leading to the Sainristil fumble.

Anthony didn't do a ton but did get an end-around that he was forced to bend way back to avoid a DL who was way upfield. Making five yards out of what looked like a big loss was impressive. If that's truly indicative of his size/speed combo he's got a bright future.

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[Campredon]

All gets involved. I was watching Erick All in pregame warmups and he's a guy who just jumps out as a different dude, even in drills. Michigan's failure to translate that to production has been frustrating, although All has had a part in that with some quasi-drops. Here he was a reliable underneath target to move the chains and Michigan's leading receiver. Hopefully Michigan can get additional production out of him.

Rugby. This is up there with Mike Hart's eight yard run against PSU in the category of "shortest run everyone was super hype about":

I don't know how much to credit that to Haskins since at some point he's just passenger on the beeftrain, but to be able to come out of that with any balance whatsoever and then rip off another chunk is impressive.

Looks like split but it's going off the front. It's always hard to tell what's baked in to a gameplan that uses a lot of zone and what's improvised; here it felt like Michigan made a concerted effort to show split zone and their insert isos off of it and then just run to the frontside of the play once the linebackers had reacted to the split flow. Michigan got multiple touchdowns as a frontside double blasted back the NU DT and then there was no one scraping over the top of that until it was too late. Those were walk-in TDs for Haskins and Corum.

DEFENSE

Touchdown first take. Here it is:

IMO: Michigan is dropping Ross out to defend RPOs and inserting Hawkins in to the box to make up the numbers. Colson, a true freshman, should funnel to help, which is usually Ross but not on this play. So that cuts Hawkins out, Ross understandably can't recover in time, and then RJ Moten inexplicably seeks out contact with a blocker instead of running after the ballcarrier.

Also, yes, the line got creased but that's a reason Northwestern might get a 10 yard run, not a 75-yard one.

Two other things that happened. Other successful Northwestern plays came in two varieties: overloading zones with flood stuff and picking the open guy on the sideline, which happened about three times, and that drive where Northwestern ran screens on every third down. Michigan finally adapted on number three and Josh Ross dropped off to knock the pass away. Screens have been productive for the opposition this year even though Michigan's got a little fortunate with deflections. Something to work on.

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[Campredon]

Welcome to the show, DJ Turner. Turner supplanted Gemon Green in the starting line up and was up to the task. The juggling interception above is one thing but he was there to PBU on a quick hitch, which is probably more important in the long term than his ability to bat the ball to himself several times and then bring it in.

Northwestern isn't the sternest test for a new CB, especially after Stephon Robinson went out. Encouraging nonetheless.

Uh… that's it? Everything else went basically as expected and there is not a whole lot else of note when Hilinksi's opportunities to hit guys downfield are spurned.

SPECIAL TEAMS

A blocked punt. Cornelius Johnson picked up Michigan's first blocked punt of the year on a free run from the edge. Special teams has been so good that it's been easy to forget that Michigan used to block punts all the time; nice to be reminded that doesn't have to be past tense. The way they did it was fairly typical: send three guys at the shield and then run a dude around them. Michigan has to set that up so that they can get a free run—nobody touched Johnson on the play—and that requires a series of feints and misdirection about who's actually coming, but the regularity with which they get through remains impressive.

Clockwork. Robbins punts: 48 yards, 47 yards, 47 yards. Unfortunate not to have one slightly shorter, as the coverage team couldn't handle a ball that landed at the ~2.

MISCELLANEOUS

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[Campredon]

Cumong man. The guys above are probably reacting to the PI on Turner but it's possible they were looking at various things that were done to Aidan Hutchinson that are not in fact legal. OL are not allowed to convert themselves into backpacks. This is not a viable method of dealing with Aidan Hutchinson, except it kind of is. Josh Ross was also the subject of a pretty obvious yank-back just before he was going to get to Hilinksi on a third down.

There's a lot of complaining about holding that is not valid but the Hutchinson ones in particular are baffling to me. If you're all the way around a guy and suddenly it looks like you're on a treadmill you have been held.

So hockey started and did not stop over and over again. Just for comparisons sake, there are 20 halftime minutes in football and 24 intermission minutes in hockey. There are six minutes of commercial breaks in the rest of a hockey game. Football eats up that ten minutes of Stuff Isn't Happening in the first half of the first quarter. After not having gone to Yost for a season, the first time sitting down and watching a hockey game that was over in two hours and change was shocking. These sports nominally have the same amount of time on the clock.

HERE

Best and Worst:

And while NW’s offense is exactly as bad as you expected coming in, the Wildcat defense is pretty good (though below their usually hyper-gritty selves).  They came into the game 31st per SP+, putting them around Nebraska (29th), Arizona St. (30th) and Kentucky (37th) in that metric, and yet Michigan seemed largely unfazed after the first possession or two.  UM moved the ball mostly at will, with drives often stalling because of bad execution or bad luck and less because NW was truly limiting what UM wanted to do.  And that continues a pretty consistent trend for UM against P5 teams this year – they’ve faced the #48 (Washington), #29 (Rutgers), #25 (NW), #24 (Nebraska), and 1st (Wisconsin) defenses per SP+ and have averaged a healthy 5.3 ypp in those games.  And defensively they’ve risen to #8 in the country largely on the strength of giving up few big plays; the 75-yard run by Hull was the first (and only) play this year over 50 yards.  And perhaps just as impressively, they’ve only given up 68 plays of over 10 yards a game this year, which given the fact they’re breaking in a new DC (and a new scheme) is one of the more pleasant surprises of the season.

State of Our Open Threads:

Indeed, after the 299 fucks given during the Nebraska thread, we only gave 96 fucks yesterday, which is our second lowest total this year (our lowest if you want to just not count the meager 18 given for the Northern Illinois game). It is certainly the lowest among the four conference games we have played so far, so if nothing else, yesterday was a brief respite for us.

More on the QB controversy-type substance:

I get it; JJ McCarthy is Dyno-mite:

And when he's out there, there's always a chance for something electric to happen, he's got IT and I won't argue that, But the TEAM(3x) is riding an undefeated season, based a lot on the unity in the locker room, why would a fan want to risk upsetting that? And saying that, I hope the staff is preparing JJ to be ready to start every game and I hope he sees plenty of snaps at meaningful times to get him ready. I'll be so stoked when it's his time. But to think his time is NOW, is pure lunacy.

I get it, he's a 5* legit! but which one of those stars means he's ready to win rivalry road games in his first couple starts? Which one means he won't thrown an interception in his first 150 passes? Is he ready for a "whiteout"?

This is pure Hubris.

Comments

burtcomma

October 25th, 2021 at 6:21 PM ^

Hmmm, a first year starting QB (2 years with team) who has limitations in his ability to read Defenses post snap.  Gee, I wonder if JJ has similar or greater limitations (of course he does). Anyone remember 2017 when we started O’Korn against OSU?  I’m damned glad we have McNamara and bet he would have beaten OSU in ‘16 and ‘17 by not turning the ball over.  

Of course, OSU has a first year starter too.  However, he also has at a minimum 3 NFL caliber WR’s.  Bet that makes him look pretty good.  Wonder why OSU QB’s have not done well in NFL over the past decade or so???

Joined: 11/01/2009

MGoPoints: 5851

caup

October 25th, 2021 at 3:16 PM ^

 "At this point, it is painfully obvious that McNamara will not be able to carry Michigan to victory when they need to win through the air. …"

EXCEPT AGAINST WISCONSIN, WHO STUFFED OUR RUN GAME IN A LOCKER.

Short memories, much?  C'mon PFF... WTF.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 4275

Wolverine In Exile

October 25th, 2021 at 3:32 PM ^

I've settled on my rubric for this team... we're the 86 NY Giants and Cade McNamara == Phil Simms. To beat Ohio State (80's SF 49ers), we're going to need to cut the clock with efficient running that gets the defense to overplay play action and we get our TE (Bavaro in BYG context) into just behind the LB space to keep chains moving, occasionally going over the top. Our defense has a stout but not overly dominant interior line play that allows our all-world OLB (Hutchinson == LT) to destroy the QB and disrupt timing throws. It's not going to be a pretty game, but it's possible. 

Joined: 11/08/2008

MGoPoints: 10798

markusr2007

October 25th, 2021 at 3:33 PM ^

I was thinking about what Brian meant by "last game of the season" and "gallows".

Googled it.

Thanks a lot, ESPN. 

More the likely final score of the game than the win probability percentage.

 

Joined: 10/21/2008

MGoPoints: 19373

MGoGrendel

October 25th, 2021 at 3:33 PM ^

I understand that this switch isn't happening until circumstances are dire, and that there are likely good reasons that it hasn't happened already. 

This.  (emphasis mine)

Joined: 01/21/2013

MGoPoints: 70423

AlbanyBlue

October 25th, 2021 at 3:34 PM ^

This is not a post advocating that JJ start. N - O - T, not!

OK. Our rushing game is amazing -- the best combo I can easily recall over my lifetime. Maybe there was a better duo, but I don't know what it is. 

With our offensive set-up, if we could integrate an average / functional zone read and RPO game WITH Corum and Haskins, we would have a really good chance to beat every team on the schedule, including OSU. This is what I am hoping beyond hope happens in the MSU game and beyond. 

If we had those things AND a functional intermediate and deep passing game, we would be firmly in the conversation for a national championship.

Cade doesn't seem to give us that, but you can't, can't, CAN'T bench him. The team mental attitude and sharpness is the best it's been in the Harbaugh era, and I think it has a lot to do with Cade's presence. 

The sad part is it's seemingly going to take being down 21, 24, 28 points to a team left on the schedule for JJ to get his chance in a "rescue" effort. And that's probably gonna mean an L.

But dammit, this is a special season that could be really, REALLY special. But we need ZR/RPO and/or intermediate and deep passing for it to be really x2 or x3 special. 

Remember, I am not advocating that JJ start, just bantering about what could be for this team. As it is, it's a hell of a season so far!

Joined: 09/11/2010

MGoPoints: 22239

aiglick

October 25th, 2021 at 3:40 PM ^

JJ has done a couple of good things but it seems like from a consistency standpoint McNamara is just better at this point. Take it one game at a time hopefully we are able to get both QBs time and then should we make it to an Armageddon II game vs OSU let’s see what happens. I think we’ll need both our QBs healthy and ready to contribute.

Joined: 11/27/2010

MGoPoints: 21563

DennisFranklinDaMan

October 26th, 2021 at 1:42 AM ^

I don't disagree, I guess, but it's funny to me how much everyone seems to agree that McNamara "is just better from a consistency standpoint." How do we know? When we don't see McNamara take more than one snap at a time, how do we know one way or another?

Eh. Personally, I'd rather see JJ in there -- he could hand off to our fantastic running backs as well as Cade can, and add a real run threat himself, and I don't think Cade's passing has been so damned good that it's impossible for JJ to match it -- but I'm pretty happy with how things are going overall, so if the coaches say it ain't happening, so be it.

 

Joined: 01/23/2021

MGoPoints: 14495

bronxblue

October 25th, 2021 at 3:41 PM ^

Nothing drives home the point the flaws with ESPN's QBR and whatever PFF calls their scoring system that they pop out numbers, based on less than 25 total pass attempts over 7 games completed at a lower percentage than McNamara, pointing to McCarthy being one of the best QBs in the country.  That may very well be true but it's definitely not captured in the limited evidence they used.  And just for fun, check out PFF's QB rankings and note that Adrian Martinez and Cade McNamara are ranked below such Big 10 luminaries as Spencer Petras, Taulia Tagovailoa, and Aidan O'Connell.  And if you're wondering, O'Connell has thrown more picks than TDs (8 to 7), Petras has thrown for...51 more yards (on 11 more attempts and with 5 more picks), and Taulia has 7 more picks and Taulia has thrown for more yards (975) but has basically the same ypa (7.0 compared to 6.8 for Cade) and 7 more picks.  And none of them are considered running threats to any great degree.

Also, I assume the "multiple big-time throws" are his "run around and lob a duck against WMU's backups late in a blowout that probably should have been picked off" and "nice throw against Wisconsin's backups in another blowout", which were fine but also ignore the multiple bombs McNamara threw in those same games.

In other news, I do hope fans don't overlook how great Haskins and Corum have been this year.  We're unlikely to see this type of duo again and I just want to enjoy how great they've been.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171911

Go Blue Beat T…

October 25th, 2021 at 5:09 PM ^

I don't think I have enough points to upvote this? 

The point you're making is so important...interpretation and usage of statistics is so challenging for the basic fact that almost no one understands the concept. It's easy to manipulate numbers into saying what you'd like them to. It's much more difficult to interpret them for what they are and then translate them into real-world truth. 

 

Yes, the objective is to pare out bias and obtain an objective assessment. But, the single most important aspect of understanding a statistic is understanding its limitation. 

In that, I agree the PFF and QBR ratings do have their flaws as you've pointed out above. Bottom line...at 7-0 and with an experienced qb vs a true freshman who plays like he's driving a Jeep Wrangler through an empty parking lot...you start the older guy. 

Joined: 10/27/2010

MGoPoints: 1163

Don

October 25th, 2021 at 3:45 PM ^

"I don't know how much to credit that to Haskins since at some point he's just passenger on the beeftrain,"

Fielding Yost would be very proud.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 148480

RadioMuse

October 25th, 2021 at 3:50 PM ^

From my perspective the whole QB "controversy" just gives the talking heads something to yap about between games.

McNamara is the starter. End of story.

I agree with Brian in that I'd like to see McCarthy utilized as a redzone QB more since his legs keep the defense honest and a lot of the pass attempts (fades, pops to the TE) that can be called in that part of the field tend to go out the back of the endzone if they're incomplete. While McCarthy isn't the optimal Belldozer or freshman Tebow type, he's also not a wildcat/halfback pass guy - he's a real QB who forces the defense to play honest in the run game. This will pad his TD stats and only get the fanbase baying more for him to take over as the starter - but I think the risk/benefit in that region of the field is clear.

Otherwise I'd rather see them keep the McCarthy offense in the garage somewhat. I think keeping his tape limited and his full drives to the backup's usual "clean up duty" is actually a better move than giving him entire drives with the game on the line. He doesn't seem to be lacking in confidence - he's not getting happy feet or throwing the ball away as soon as he gets outside the pocket. He's going to MAKE PLAYS, so I think it's best if our opponents haven't scouted what those plays are going to be.

Joined: 03/20/2012

MGoPoints: 311

gary3

October 25th, 2021 at 11:59 PM ^

I think he explained that in his comment lol

While McCarthy isn't the optimal Belldozer or freshman Tebow type, he's also not a wildcat/halfback pass guy - he's a real QB who forces the defense to play honest in the run game. This will pad his TD stats and only get the fanbase baying more for him to take over as the starter - but I think the risk/benefit in that region of the field is clear.

Joined: 09/26/2016

MGoPoints: 2407

The Homie J

October 25th, 2021 at 3:59 PM ^

James Ross breaking up a third consecutive third down screen

Josh "John "James"" Ross is gonna graduate from here and nobody will ever know what his first name actually is.  Pretty sure Gus Johnson said "John" at least 50% of the time he was talking about Josh

Joined: 01/11/2018

MGoPoints: 17408

Go Blue Beat T…

October 25th, 2021 at 4:32 PM ^

“People have differing risk tolerances. Football coaches do not, and that's another way things are moot.”

This is everything right here….

Fan decision making is akin to gen Z thought process: I want this ! Now! It’s mine! Let me have it!

Coaches live, breathe, eat, sleep, and dream their team and their season. This is not a side gig for them or an obsessive hobby that they dig up old usernames for and scramble for passwords to weigh in their thoughts. They are WAY more invested than the biggest diehard or superfan ever could be. We get the dessert of three hours of smashmouth B1G football every Saturday, while they do the hard work to from start to finish.

Beating tOSU is not on our qb. It’s an effort of the 11 men on the field all day, and if you look at it matchup wise, there’s only one position group that can give us a chance that day, which is painfully obvious to me: our D-line.

Prior to the season—massive question mark. Dare I say cyan circles were looming? They’ve proved their worth and more, and are the real reason we stand where we do at 7-0 and staring at multiple top ten matchups this season.

At the beginning of the season, it felt as if the tides were turning. Michigan, by righting the ship just as the team down south looked to be collapsing on itself. The storms were brewing in Columbus, and nd everything looked like the team Day inherited was about to turn into just “another college football team.” Like you guys said…they’re professionals. Even though they hemorrhaged linebackers and fired their D coordinator and their freshman QB looked like a freshman, the ship was righted and they now look unstoppable. It only took a few seconds of watching after Indiana scored to tie the game and appeared to have an upset brewing to realize the Hoosiers had no shot. Stroud had two men to throw to on the next drive, a deep man bracketed by two Hoosiers and an underneath route. He nailed an NFL throw to the deep man, and that’s when I realized how screwed the whole country might be.

So how does JJ, who most certainly would’ve had that play to the tight end (called back on a block which didn’t look all that illegal to me, but I digress) not get the start?

Because against the monster at the end of a season, that’s probably a strip sack for 6 the other way. You can’t make those plays against professionals and survive. Unless you’re Kyler Murray. JJ is not. Not to say he won’t be one day, but that day is not today. It takes some time to develop your guy and for everything to click. With patience, that day will come.

Cade is the right guy. He’s the man for this team. It’s his team. It’s his locker room. No one on the inside Schembechler Hall questions that. There is no controversy among the players. Cade is the man. Timing is so critical and so is muscle memory and so is routine. Ronnie was the deep guy. He’s out. It takes time to redevelop. Hopefully by 11.27 either Roman or Daylen can get in sync with him and we can hit one or two on top of a dominating run day and eek out victory.

But there’s only one way to beat the number one offense in the land, and that’s on the defense to get some stops.

When Brady and Moss hooked up in the dream season for a QB flourishing in his prime en route to a nearly perfect year, the one thing that could crash that party was the NY Giants defensive front. Pressuring Brady and making sure he didn’t have time to get the ball out was the only way to win that game. It also took a miracle catch by a rando receiver and a miss by Brady in the game’s final seconds (Moss was open on the second throw for the game winner!) to end the NFL’s quest for a second perfect season.

Aidan Hutchinson could cement what I believe to be not just an All-American season but, if past history could repeat itself, a second defensive Heisman winner for UM. He’s had that impactful of a year in a way no one else in college football really stands out. Absolutely no one has stopped him to date (without blatantly cheating that is…). If the D line gets to CJ Stroud and shakes his confidence and he starts to panic, then we have a shot.

Here’s hoping this is the year. If not, it’s still a joy and pleasure to watch these guys battle. They do the school proud, and I think it’s time to express some gratitude that the years of turnover and losing to Toledo and being in dogfights with the Bowling Greens of the country are over. This is a new era in UM football, and it's been a joy to watch us settle back into being a top-ten perennial program.

LFG

Joined: 10/27/2010

MGoPoints: 1163

Don

October 25th, 2021 at 5:24 PM ^

a second defensive Heisman winner for UM

Unless they start giving Hutchinson the ball on offense, there is zero chance of this happening. If Woodson had been limited solely to defensive play, Manning wins the Heisman.

It sucks, because guys who play just on defense should be every bit as eligible for the Heisman as guys who are just on offense, but the Heisman voters made it clear once two-platoon football was established that they were going to prioritize offense in their voting.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 148480

DennisFranklinDaMan

October 25th, 2021 at 5:34 PM ^

I think that egregious pass interference call against Michigan was a make-up call, as it came shortly after a similarly egregious call against Northwestern. I remember watching the replay of that first call, thinking that the referees were probably seeing a replay of it as well, and thinking, "ooh, I bet there's going to be a painful call going the other way at some point."

Joined: 01/23/2021

MGoPoints: 14495

MGoBlue96

October 25th, 2021 at 8:33 PM ^

No not even remotely close, the WR literally shoved him as hard as he could in the back. It was a clear as day OPI. The one NW was called for there was contact if not a ton of contact. Laughable to compare them, the one on Turner was legimately one of the absolute worst DPI passes I have ever seen watching college football.

Joined: 12/26/2010

MGoPoints: 26101

mi93

October 25th, 2021 at 6:21 PM ^

IIRC, wasn't junior Harbaugh the ST coordinator the last time they were good at blocking punts.

That guy may be a pretty good coach.

Joined: 11/15/2008

MGoPoints: 30417

Double-D

October 25th, 2021 at 9:57 PM ^

Our QB situation is an interesting dilemma.

McNamara has three more years of eligibility.  Think about that seriously.  The year to year improvements both physically and mentally in the game can be significant. 

McCarthy on the other hand is off the charts talented and the ability to move the chains when a play breaks down or by designed run wins games when things aren’t going well.  

Joined: 12/21/2013

MGoPoints: 87864

The Oracle 2

October 25th, 2021 at 11:05 PM ^

PFF, the announcers who call the games each week, the only people who can’t see how much more talented McCarthy is than McNamara ever will be seem to all be Michigan fans. My theory is that it’s been so long since they’ve seen offensive greatness that they don’t trust their own eyes. Brian writes “on the other, "did miss a couple of throws" seems to undersell McCarthy's wobbliness so far.” Wobbliness? McCarthy has thrown a total of seven incompletions in his college career. He’s completed 12 passes, a couple of which have been jaw droppers, and that’s without ever having had the opportunity to get into a rhythm. McNamara has never thrown any passes like those. Never.

Although I’m sure it won’t be comfortable for Harbaugh, the change has to be made and I hope it comes sooner rather than later. If Milton and McCaffrey both transferred when they weren’t named the starter, do you really think McCarthy will continue to happily and patiently sit behind someone he knows he’s better than? A couple of years ago, Kirby Smart went with the more experienced and dependable Jake Fromm (who was much better than McNamara) over the more talented Justin Fields. How did that turn out? I’m sure there are plenty of top teams who would be thrilled if Michigan blows this and McCarthy becomes available.

Some fans like to talk about fairness and think McNamara “deserves” to start. Deserves has nothing to do with it. What’s fair for the team is that the best players play. Dabo Sweeney did it with Trevor Lawrence. Nick Saban benched National Championship winner Jalen Hurts because he thought Tua was better. It just has to happen.

 

Joined: 02/25/2018

MGoPoints: 19223