aidan hutchinson

we hardly knew ye [Bryan Fuller]

Previously: Podcast 14.0A, 14.0B, 14.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A Offense.

1. Does losing Mike Macdonald matter?

Probably. Unlike Gattis, Macdonald did not make a lateral move, and his trajectory from nobody to position coach to college DC to NFL DC speaks volumes about what the Ravens organization thinks about him. It's no disrespect to Jesse Minter to say that Michigan would have been better off if Macdonald had set up shop in Ann Arbor for several years. (Schematically, anyway. Macdonald reportedly loathed recruiting with the fury of a thousand suns.)

HOWEVA, that does not necessarily mean this year's team is going to be hindered by the transition. Going from Don Brown's all-man all-the-time approach to the Raven's diverse collection of fronts and zones is jarring. A few different players had issues with the change—or in the case of the freshmen linebackers, with trying to absorb it fresh. Gemon Green was iffy in zones, and when I was going over DL clips I think I found several instances where one guy was running a stunt and the other guy wasn't. Brown used stunts, of course, but whenever you change your playbook and your terminology you lose all that familiarity and increase the chances you bust.

Losing a DC after one year re-imposes all those costs… unless it doesn't.

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Jesse Minter is a branch of the Ravens coaching tree and he has seven years as a college DC under his belt. Sam Webb on the transition, or lack thereof:

The commonality in scheme with former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has been obvious and has allowed for exactly the kind of seamless transition Harbaugh hoped for when he made the hire. The familiarity for the players has made the install of new elements very smooth, especially when it comes to pressure.

The defensive nomenclature certainly hasn't changed from last year, with Harbaugh announcing a 3-4 style defensive depth chart just like last year's. Minter brings the best of both worlds: continuity from the Ravens and college experience.

What he does not bring is much of a track record. His single year at an abominable Vanderbilt program (2-10 last year, 122nd in SP+, 115th on D) is no data at all. He did do an encouraging job with Georgia State, which transitioned to D-1 in 2013, his first year with the program. After two years stuck near the bottom of FEI (119th and 128th, the latter dead last) on teams that went 1-23, GSU popped up to somewhat respectable (81st and 76th) in 2015 and 2016. Building a fresh-to-FBS program into a defense in the vicinity of 2016 MSU, Kentucky, Maryland, and Arizona State is something. And he moved up over time with the Ravens.

I'd rather have kept Macdonald, even with a recruiting gap, but Minter is a young up-and-comer who came through a good organization and has one build job in his past that looks encouraging. It'll probably be fine.

[After THE JUMP: it takes a village to replace the DEs]
Congrats, you didn't overthink it! [Patrick Barron]

Hello, fan of an NFL team. MGoBlog excruciatingly scouts every Michigan play, and scores them to inform our coverage. Since mi atleta es su atleta now, here we share what we're sharing.

Quickly: The best player in the draft by college production. Highest floor in the draft, might not be JJ Watt.

Draft Projection: 1st or 2nd overall pick in a draft without any franchise quarterbacks seems about right. Teams picking there can't afford to mess that pick up, and Hutch is about as good a guarantee of that as you're going to get. I'd expect him to end up ~20th player in his draft class not the 1st, but if you actually know who the top five are going to be you should be in stocks.

NFL Comp: Nick Bosa or TJ Watt. Great measurements, spectacular college production that should translate to instant very good NFL DE, but not one of the freaks. Unless he's TJ Watt

What's his story? High-ish 4-star son of a 1990s All-American tackle (DE) in 2018. First inkling we had something was when our guys's senior high school scout revealed he was more than athletic enough to stay at WDE with a frame that's often on thr DT/DE line. Became a regular opposite Kwity Paye in 2019, first big play rescued a near upset at the hands of Army. Dominated Iowa. Played just 2 games in 2020, asked to 2-gap inside from DE spot to cover for DT deficiencies, unblockable vs MSU, then injured. Returned for senior season, moved out to DE/OLB in new defense, and was the best player in the country.

Positives: Gamebreaker. Ideal size and length for defensive end. Surprising speed, insane strength, uncanny motor. Cerebral, uncanny preparation. Array of pass-rush moves, favoring a vicious club and push-style outside moves, plus an advanced counter inside move. Shows up in the biggest games/moments. Superior run defender. Superior teammate. Generational player; it would be an upset if he's not in the NFL Hall of Fame eventually.

Negatives: Injured in 2020 but came back with no after-effects. If you were in position to draft him your franchise has been completely devastated from choosing the worst person in football to be your head coach recently, or you're the Detroit Lions.

What others say: Pro Football Focus thought he was unreal; they say he had the 2nd highest edge rush grade (92.4) in P5 history, led the Big Ten in run stopsled all FBS edges on all three downs and put up the 3rd highest grade by a defender since 2014, doing so with remarkable consistency.

Following the Ohio State game they had him as their pick for the Heisman. The NFL combine results, where he finished 2nd overall to ND's Kyle Hamilton, raised Hutchinson from likely 2nd overall pick to the consensus #1. He was also #2 overall on Bruce Feldman's freaks list last year, one spot above Hamilton and one behind Bama LT Evan Neal. On the other end, Ian Cummings has his doubts about Hutchinson's ceiling:

My evaluation of Hutchinson has been a roller coaster, quite frankly. I wasn’t a huge fan and saw him more as a Day 2 prospect over the summer. Then the 2021 season happened, and the hype took over. Some elements of his game popped over that span, most notably his red-hot motor, violent hands, lateral agility, and speed-to-power conversion.

However, rewatching the 2021 tape unearthed some concerns that may have been lost in the midseason hype. Hutchinson has above-average explosiveness off the line, but he’s not elite like his teammate Ojabo. His upright style further erodes that explosiveness. He often plays with his pads too high. With a high pad level, he can’t always launch out of his stance at full speed, and he can’t attain superior leverage and attack the torso consistently.

Our Scheme/Best Scheme: Any. Michigan used him as a B-gap quasi-tackle before his injury in 2020 to cover DT deficiencies, then moved him out to a wide-7 end with the occasional dropback as a senior. Best fit would be as an either-side end in a 4-3 system, where his pass rush is a constant threat and he can occasionally wreck things inside if asked to.

[After THE JUMP: Grading, tons of video]
[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Charity Bowl time. Well, folks, time to liberate 42.27 plus processing fees from your wallets:

Or you could be like Ethan Stark and drop approximately 7k by moving the decimal. I want to see a historic blowout this year. I expect it, really.

In or out. Hunter Dickinson announced a return yesterday; Moussa Diabate has now announced he's going through the draft process:

Diabate will retain his eligibility. That's the smart move for a guy with all the physical potential in the world but little presence on mock drafts or even top 100 lists. He could easily catch someone's eye and get a first round guarantee; or he could get told if he does X and Y next year he'd be a clear lottery pick. I can't remember a stay or go decision more contingent on camp performances. Anonymous NBA scout:

“He is all over the board,” the scout said with a laugh. “The variance with him is crazy.”

SI's draft guy:

Caleb Houstan has announced nothing despite the NBA draft entry deadline passing at midnight last night. The NBA releases the list tomorrow at noon, so we won't have to wait long to find out whether he's also going through the process. I remain skeptical that Houstan is draft viable since last year he only did one thing well—stand-still shooting—and was very much a work in progress as a defender. It's frankly bizarre to me that draft rankings like CBS's have Houstan 37th and no Diabate.

If I had to bet I'd say that at least one team is willing to give Diabate a late first guarantee and that Houstan ends up returning. But [gestures in freezing cold Jordan Poole take].

[Hit THE JUMP for rescue one Aidan Hutchinson from the Lions]

According to my charting Hutchinson was the best player of the MGoBlog era, and Turner is going to be up there with the best of the cornerbacks.

in which the Big Ten is hard to explain 

That moment when you wake up from a beautiful dream

Give him the trophy.

Eventually, people noticed.

mmm semiotically confusing

the past is nothing 

Salvation.

Let me tell you about when I was 15.