2021 northwestern
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[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

George Jewett Would Be Proud That This Post Has Graphs Comment Count

Brian October 25th, 2021 at 2:00 PM

10/25/2021 – Michigan 33, Northwestern 7 – 7-0, 4-0 Big Ten

Michigan is 7-0 and has just dispatched an inferior opponent in almost exactly the manner expected to pregame. The Vegas spread was 23.5. The actual spread was 26. Michigan outgained Northwestern two-to-one even if they gave up a 75-yard touchdown. So naturally the Michigan internet is on fire in more or less the same way they would be if the team was hewing close to preseason expectations. (IE: they were butt.)

This is because of a quarterback controversy that currently exists only in the minds of fans. I could explain it but we're Michigan people so someone's already made graphs.

FCi2k_aXsAY3enj

Cade McNamara is the game manager with limited upside and limited downside who will not lose a game to Northwestern or defanged Penn State or Indiana; JJ McCarthy could be anything and therefore gives you a better shot of cashing this season in at the end of it. The diagram further asserts that McNamara's overall level of play is a titch better than McCarthy's but that doesn't matter for the relevant question.

Because we are Michigan fans the diagrams top out at a 10% chance of beating OSU, and therein lies the mania. For most other programs, this level of performance would be cause for celebration. The quarterback hiccups would be small blemishes on an otherwise impeccable resume, because the last game of the season would not be a gallows. (Or, in Auburn's case, the last game of the season is a gallows that they will escape due to a brief, inexplicable failure of quantum mechanics.)

For Michigan in this moment, every missed deep shot immediately induces not only frustration in the immediate circumstance but reinforces the dread certainty that this guy ain't beating OSU. This would matter less if the team was butt and nobody was beating OSU—although in that circumstance they'd still be calling for the five-star freshman since nobody is beating OSU. You can't win when you're in front of the guy with the woo woo on his 24/7 profile.

----------------------

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this is Cornelius Johnson, not RJ Moten [Bryan Fuller]

I can see both sides of the QB debate. On the one hand I'm pretty negative about McNamara's performances to date, though not as negative as PFF:

McNamara earned a 57.8 passing grade and led the Wolverines to negative expected points added (EPA) per pass play. The Wolverines signal-caller earned a 37.9 passing grade on passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield, as he completed just 1-of-6 pass attempts for 12 yards. At this point, it is painfully obvious that McNamara will not be able to carry Michigan to victory when they need to win through the air. …

McCarthy did miss a couple of throws, but he has already shown his upside in the vertical passing game — he has thrown fewer than 25 passes this year but already has multiple big-time throws. Overall, McCarthy has earned a 90.5 PFF grade in his limited snaps this season.

On the other, "did miss a couple of throws" seems to undersell McCarthy's wobbliness so far. He hasn't felt more accurate overall than McNamara; he just uncorks an eyepopping throw here and there that obscures the other stuff. Also this felt like a reason he's on the bench:

While cool in the moment—before it got called back for a blindside block—that is bonafide High School Crappe that will get you wrecked if you do it too much. There were a couple games early in the Devin Gardner era with similar escapes, and we were very hyped about them. Then Gardner turned in one of the worst plays in Michigan history* against Notre Dame. That's not going to fly. In a telling post-game moment, McNamara was asked about the above "wow" play and flatly said it was dangerous. This is accurate and not fun at all.

Back to the first hand: the picture that above was McNamara throwing an open post way long when his receiver had inside position and the safety had sucked up on a dig. McNamara threw into double coverage to Sainristil when his other option on a two-man-route was open. He put a throw to an open Schoonmaker down the slot in the wrong spot, etc. Thus the PFF grade. Meanwhile McCarthy appears to bring better-than-functional ability as a runner. The thought of combining the extant ground game with a mobile quarterback is really appealing.

I understand that this switch isn't happening until circumstances are dire, and that there are likely good reasons that it hasn't happened already. I also understand people who want to damn the torpedoes and see what Michigan's got. Likely this is moot. All of this is entering Approaching The Lucy Football territory, which is inadvisable since OSU has the top offense in the country by 4.5 points per game according to SP+.

It's possible that "could beat Ohio State" isn't actually the best metric to go on since approximately zero plus 50 percent is still approximately zero. People have differing risk tolerances. Football coaches do not, and that's another way things are moot. It'll be McNamara until it can't be McNamara anymore.

*[Standalone category. IE: how bad was this play in a vacuum, without game context.]

 

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

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[Fuller]

-2535ac8789d1b499[1]you're the man now, dog

#1(t) Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum. This was not planned but seven games into the season these guys are tied in the points standings here. Each turned in spectacular plays in their milieu: Haskins stayed upright in a rugby scrum that turned a four yard run into a 19 yard one while Corum repeatedly WOOPed guys in the hole and then WOOPed the safety coming down trying to put the fire out. Five points each, they're made up and don't matter.

#2 Aidan Hutchinson. This section threatens to become fairly boring. It's going to be one or two running backs and Hutchinson in some order, with game heroes sprinkled in. But, I mean… what can you do? Hutchinson sent the right tackle out of the game with a broken soul. He also got half a sack, further proving that numbers cannot encompass his play.

#3 DJ Turner. Hey, here's someone new. Turner got a thumping TFL early, made a spectacular interception late, and in-between was the target of the worst penalty call in a Michigan-Northwestern game since Karan Higdon got called for holding.

Honorable mention: Erick All was a reliable underneath option and erased some dudes on the edge. The OL kept the QBs clean with one notable exception and consistently delivered guys downfield, except when NW overplayed and it still didn't matter. Josh Ross delivered a number of sticks to NW RBs, nearly had an INT, and could have had a sack but for some holding.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

28: Aidan Hutchinson (HM WMU, #2 Wash, #1 Rutgers, #1 Wisc, HM Neb, #2 NW)
18: The OL (#1 Wash, #1 NIU, HM Neb, HM NW)
17: Hassan Haskins (HM WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU, #2 Neb, T1 NW), Blake Corum (#2 WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU, HM Neb, T1 NW)
8: Ronnie Bell (#1 WMU), Brad Hawkins (#1 Neb)
7: Dax Hill (#3 WMU, HM NIU, HM Rutgers, HM Wisc, HM Neb)
6: Nikhai Hill-Green(HM NIU, #2 Rutgers)
5: David Ojabo (#2 Wisc), Brad Robbins (HM Wash, #3 Rutgers, HM Wisc), Jake Moody (HM Wash, HM Wisc, #3 Neb), Josh Ross (HM Wash, HM NIU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM NW)
4: AJ Henning (HM WMU, #3 NIU)
3: Donovan Edwards(T2 NIU), Roman Wilson (#3 Wisc), DJ Turner (#3 NW)
2: Cornelius Johnson(HM NIU, HM Wisc),
1: Andrew Vastardis (HM WMU),Mike Sainristil (HM WMU),  Mazi Smith (HM Wash), Gemon Green(HM NIU), Chris Hinton (HM Rutgers), Erick All (HM NW)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Difficult selection since Michigan didn't have a scrimmage play longer than 24 yards, but for my money it's the Corum third down run right before Michigan broke up M00N 2, because just look at this:

That turned a dicey redzone proposition into a touchdown, as Michigan just went hurry-up and dove in with Corum right after the above.

 

Honorable mention: Rugby scrum run, Hutchinson dump truck sack, the other Corum run where he WOOPed two guys, James Ross breaking up a third consecutive third down screen.

image​MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Northwestern gets a 75-yard touchdown that sets Twitter on fire for halftime.

Honorable mention: Michigan's drive after the 75-yard TD ends in a fumble on some cute perimeter stuff. McNamara misses various deep shots. Egregious PI call on Turner is egregious.

[After THE JUMP: 1 and 3]

OFFENSE

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[Fuller]

In which radically positive podcast takes are not radically positive enough. I thought Blake Corum was PFF's top-ranked running back and that Hassan Haskins was around 15th. This was actually underselling it:

Corum and fellow backfield partner Hassan Haskins tore up the Northwestern defense Saturday and find themselves first and third, respectively, in the overall running back rankings with Texas’ Bijan Robinson sandwiched between them. Against the Wildcats, the duo produced a 0.58 missed tackle rate and gained a first down or touchdown rushing on 43% of their carries while averaging 5.5 yards per carry and four yards after contact per rush.

This provides a valuable sanity check for Seth's numbers, which are way out of line with historic running back UFR +/-. That does not appear to be an artifact of grading differences between us. They're just real good.

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[Fuller]

Outside bottled up largely. Michigan could not be accused of mindlessly bashing it up the middle in this game. A number of end-arounds got decent to good yardage and if anything Michigan's redzone playcalling could be accused of being too cute on the edge. The above from Henning was productive but required him to zip through a couple tackles, and on other attempts Northwestern successfully bent the ballcarrier away from the LOS.

Two backup guards. Northwestern is a very bad run defense, granted. Still worth mentioning that Michigan did their clobbering without either of their starting guards and the dropoff didn't seem that big. There was the one missed blitz pickup when Northwestern successfully disguised that a safety was coming, and I'm sure there were some run game hiccups. I'll take that performance from backups.

FWIW, this play was discussed in some depth on the podcast. Seth noted that the line call probably did not account for the safety, and I asserted that while that is likely true there are situations where the line call needs to be overridden by your OL spidey sense. When Filiaga checks right here and then left and the guy on the left runs that far away from him this needs to spur some Admiral Akbar in your head:

It's a trap.

Anthony over Baldwin. Andrel Anthony was much more prominent in the second half of this game than he had been all year. One dollar says this is directly traceable to the end of the first half, when Baldwin was tasked with a crack block on a safety that he completely whiffed, leading to the Sainristil fumble.

Anthony didn't do a ton but did get an end-around that he was forced to bend way back to avoid a DL who was way upfield. Making five yards out of what looked like a big loss was impressive. If that's truly indicative of his size/speed combo he's got a bright future.

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[Campredon]

All gets involved. I was watching Erick All in pregame warmups and he's a guy who just jumps out as a different dude, even in drills. Michigan's failure to translate that to production has been frustrating, although All has had a part in that with some quasi-drops. Here he was a reliable underneath target to move the chains and Michigan's leading receiver. Hopefully Michigan can get additional production out of him.

Rugby. This is up there with Mike Hart's eight yard run against PSU in the category of "shortest run everyone was super hype about":

I don't know how much to credit that to Haskins since at some point he's just passenger on the beeftrain, but to be able to come out of that with any balance whatsoever and then rip off another chunk is impressive.

Looks like split but it's going off the front. It's always hard to tell what's baked in to a gameplan that uses a lot of zone and what's improvised; here it felt like Michigan made a concerted effort to show split zone and their insert isos off of it and then just run to the frontside of the play once the linebackers had reacted to the split flow. Michigan got multiple touchdowns as a frontside double blasted back the NU DT and then there was no one scraping over the top of that until it was too late. Those were walk-in TDs for Haskins and Corum.

DEFENSE

Touchdown first take. Here it is:

IMO: Michigan is dropping Ross out to defend RPOs and inserting Hawkins in to the box to make up the numbers. Colson, a true freshman, should funnel to help, which is usually Ross but not on this play. So that cuts Hawkins out, Ross understandably can't recover in time, and then RJ Moten inexplicably seeks out contact with a blocker instead of running after the ballcarrier.

Also, yes, the line got creased but that's a reason Northwestern might get a 10 yard run, not a 75-yard one.

Two other things that happened. Other successful Northwestern plays came in two varieties: overloading zones with flood stuff and picking the open guy on the sideline, which happened about three times, and that drive where Northwestern ran screens on every third down. Michigan finally adapted on number three and Josh Ross dropped off to knock the pass away. Screens have been productive for the opposition this year even though Michigan's got a little fortunate with deflections. Something to work on.

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[Campredon]

Welcome to the show, DJ Turner. Turner supplanted Gemon Green in the starting line up and was up to the task. The juggling interception above is one thing but he was there to PBU on a quick hitch, which is probably more important in the long term than his ability to bat the ball to himself several times and then bring it in.

Northwestern isn't the sternest test for a new CB, especially after Stephon Robinson went out. Encouraging nonetheless.

Uh… that's it? Everything else went basically as expected and there is not a whole lot else of note when Hilinksi's opportunities to hit guys downfield are spurned.

SPECIAL TEAMS

A blocked punt. Cornelius Johnson picked up Michigan's first blocked punt of the year on a free run from the edge. Special teams has been so good that it's been easy to forget that Michigan used to block punts all the time; nice to be reminded that doesn't have to be past tense. The way they did it was fairly typical: send three guys at the shield and then run a dude around them. Michigan has to set that up so that they can get a free run—nobody touched Johnson on the play—and that requires a series of feints and misdirection about who's actually coming, but the regularity with which they get through remains impressive.

Clockwork. Robbins punts: 48 yards, 47 yards, 47 yards. Unfortunate not to have one slightly shorter, as the coverage team couldn't handle a ball that landed at the ~2.

MISCELLANEOUS

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[Campredon]

Cumong man. The guys above are probably reacting to the PI on Turner but it's possible they were looking at various things that were done to Aidan Hutchinson that are not in fact legal. OL are not allowed to convert themselves into backpacks. This is not a viable method of dealing with Aidan Hutchinson, except it kind of is. Josh Ross was also the subject of a pretty obvious yank-back just before he was going to get to Hilinksi on a third down.

There's a lot of complaining about holding that is not valid but the Hutchinson ones in particular are baffling to me. If you're all the way around a guy and suddenly it looks like you're on a treadmill you have been held.

So hockey started and did not stop over and over again. Just for comparisons sake, there are 20 halftime minutes in football and 24 intermission minutes in hockey. There are six minutes of commercial breaks in the rest of a hockey game. Football eats up that ten minutes of Stuff Isn't Happening in the first half of the first quarter. After not having gone to Yost for a season, the first time sitting down and watching a hockey game that was over in two hours and change was shocking. These sports nominally have the same amount of time on the clock.

HERE

Best and Worst:

And while NW’s offense is exactly as bad as you expected coming in, the Wildcat defense is pretty good (though below their usually hyper-gritty selves).  They came into the game 31st per SP+, putting them around Nebraska (29th), Arizona St. (30th) and Kentucky (37th) in that metric, and yet Michigan seemed largely unfazed after the first possession or two.  UM moved the ball mostly at will, with drives often stalling because of bad execution or bad luck and less because NW was truly limiting what UM wanted to do.  And that continues a pretty consistent trend for UM against P5 teams this year – they’ve faced the #48 (Washington), #29 (Rutgers), #25 (NW), #24 (Nebraska), and 1st (Wisconsin) defenses per SP+ and have averaged a healthy 5.3 ypp in those games.  And defensively they’ve risen to #8 in the country largely on the strength of giving up few big plays; the 75-yard run by Hull was the first (and only) play this year over 50 yards.  And perhaps just as impressively, they’ve only given up 68 plays of over 10 yards a game this year, which given the fact they’re breaking in a new DC (and a new scheme) is one of the more pleasant surprises of the season.

State of Our Open Threads:

Indeed, after the 299 fucks given during the Nebraska thread, we only gave 96 fucks yesterday, which is our second lowest total this year (our lowest if you want to just not count the meager 18 given for the Northern Illinois game). It is certainly the lowest among the four conference games we have played so far, so if nothing else, yesterday was a brief respite for us.

More on the QB controversy-type substance:

I get it; JJ McCarthy is Dyno-mite:

And when he's out there, there's always a chance for something electric to happen, he's got IT and I won't argue that, But the TEAM(3x) is riding an undefeated season, based a lot on the unity in the locker room, why would a fan want to risk upsetting that? And saying that, I hope the staff is preparing JJ to be ready to start every game and I hope he sees plenty of snaps at meaningful times to get him ready. I'll be so stoked when it's his time. But to think his time is NOW, is pure lunacy.

I get it, he's a 5* legit! but which one of those stars means he's ready to win rivalry road games in his first couple starts? Which one means he won't thrown an interception in his first 150 passes? Is he ready for a "whiteout"?

This is pure Hubris.

Comments

EnoughAlready

October 25th, 2021 at 2:10 PM ^

I get frustrated with some of the back-and-forth about Cade.  But let me say this: I'm loving the dual RB running game.  I enjoy Michigan's rush attack as much as any season I can remember.  They run smart, and they always give full effort.  -- And the O-line is much better than I thought it would be.

If the passing game begins to click, boy will the offense be fun to watch.

Joined: 09/14/2011

MGoPoints: 1672

stephenrjking

October 25th, 2021 at 2:25 PM ^

O-Line is good. I'll say, though, that just from what I've seen in analysis, I don't think our O-Line is markedly better than some of the good Warinner lines. Good, yes, but there are still breakdowns and missed assignments and such. 

The difference is the RBs. They are definitely good. How many times have they just sidestepped a blown assignment, or made yards where the OL gave them nothing? A lot. This RB room is everything we could possibly have hoped it to be. 

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143860

EnoughAlready

October 25th, 2021 at 2:44 PM ^

Agree 100%.  The thing is, for whatever reason, I thought the O-line would be a deficit this year.  They may not be an all-time great line -- but my expectations were low.

And you make a good point about the RBs: Both of them, often, create their own space, gut out their own yards, make the first guy miss -- etc.

Joined: 09/14/2011

MGoPoints: 1672

JHumich

October 25th, 2021 at 4:05 PM ^

O-Line is way better than good. Guards felt average in this game, though. It felt like I saw more drop-off at guard than Brian stated. Still, OL has been great. I'm happy for them that they have Haskins and Corum running behind them, because my perception is that it's satisfying when you get paid off for great OL play by even greater running.

And thank you, Brian, for referring us to the PFF analysis on Cade. I agree that JJ isn't the answer as long as he is does any crappe things. Just can't afford the possibility of that. But QB is a weak spot for us, and it feels like the content creators wouldn't have to keep pointing it out if it hadn't become a weird cancel-culture thing here to shout down people who point out it's a weak spot.

That's just objective. It's not clamoring for JJ. It's not Henson-Brady 2.0 (which is sheer silliness as a descriptor because it implies that the young up-and-comer will never be the better option, and the immobile game manager will always be an NFL HOFer).

Joined: 02/18/2017

MGoPoints: 52926

dankbrogoblue

October 25th, 2021 at 4:33 PM ^

it feels like the content creators wouldn't have to keep pointing it out if it hadn't become a weird cancel-culture thing here to shout down people who point out it's a weak spot.
 

This was a completely unnecessary statement. If I strongly disagree with your opinion, it doesn’t mean I’m trying to cancel you.

Joined: 11/12/2008

MGoPoints: 4021

DetroitDan

October 25th, 2021 at 5:44 PM ^

In response to JHumich's comment:

But QB is a weak spot for us, and it feels like the content creators wouldn't have to keep pointing it out if it hadn't become a weird cancel-culture thing here to shout down people who point out it's a weak spot.

That's just objective. It's not clamoring for JJ. It's not Henson-Brady 2.0 (which is sheer silliness as a descriptor because it implies that the young up-and-comer will never be the better option, and the immobile game manager will always be an NFL HOFer).

To say that the last sentence (especially the part in parentheses) is "just objective" is false, as well as very poorly worded.  I have no idea who will be the better QB in the long run, but I do know that coaches have a lot more info on this than me. 

I don't agree with the lack of trust in the coaches by some.  Michigan football has improved under Harbaugh amid some difficult circumstances.  Honestly, I think there's a maturity factor.  I'm old enough to have seen a lot and have had a lot of stupid takes in my time.

I do remember posting a lot (at a different forum -- perhaps Detroit Free Press) during the Henson - Brady year when they split time.  At first, I was like it's obvious that we should play Henson more as he obviously had way more upside.  Everybody knew this!  Unlike this year, however, it quickly became clear that Brady was better and deserved to play more.  I do wish that JJ would throw more so we would have a better basis to evaluate.  Perhaps that's why the coaches don't let him throw more.  They are trying to avoid controversy and give McNamara a chance to get confidence and improve.  Confidence does seem to be an important factor for a QB, and it takes time to get into rhythm with the offense.  Brady didn't set the world on fire in his first year as a UM starter, which was his 4th year with the program.

Joined: 01/14/2021

MGoPoints: 4058

Champeen

October 25th, 2021 at 2:26 PM ^

Agree on the RB part.  I am 100% behind having 1 workhorse and only 1 dude.  But this year, they both are amazing, and have such different styles.  I mean, the upside of Corum is ridiculous, but Haskins effort and toughness ... you just cannot deny giving him the ball either.  

It is ridiculous that our #3 RB would start for 3/4 college football teams.

Joined: 04/07/2011

MGoPoints: 14961

AC1997

October 25th, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^

I was going to say this also - you beat me to it.  There were a lot of fans blaming the RB performance over the past (checks calendar....13 years?) on things like rotating too much, whoever was the RB coach, Harbaugh (who has only been here half that time, or any number of things.  I think they've done a pretty good job all year of balancing the carries and timing of when to use the two guys.  The only thing I'm wondering is if there's a situation where they could have them both on the field in a way that's productive, not just a novelty.  

Joined: 09/19/2008

MGoPoints: 13809

xgojim

October 25th, 2021 at 3:02 PM ^

Agree to all of this.

And then there was Haskins 20 yard "run" with the entire NW defense on his back and M's offensive line pushing the whole mess.  Has to be one of the highlight runs in U-M history, Woolfolk, Harmon, Ron Johnson, Lytle, Hart, et al, notwithstanding.  Never seen anything like it in the roughly 60 years of following M football!

Joined: 11/03/2012

MGoPoints: 2325

ImRightYouKnow

October 25th, 2021 at 4:07 PM ^

I've been saying for a while, if you think he's good, or you think he's not, you're right. 

He's very good at one aspect, and not very good at the other. So people's opinions of him are going to be based off their risk tolerance. If you're risk averse, you don't understand why people are questioning him starting. If you're risk tolerant, you don't get how we're not giving JJ more reps. 

 

Joined: 10/21/2019

MGoPoints: 3911

yossarians tree

October 26th, 2021 at 2:04 PM ^

I am starting to come around to the idea of QB play lacking for two reasons:

First, this is the best RB tandem in America and a top 5 rushing attack and that is WITHOUT a viable QB run threat. Imagine trying to handle these backs if the QB could hurt you too.

Second, even without a QB run threat, the RBs are so devastating that the play-action pass game should be able to hit multiple 20+ yard plays per game. Instead they are getting game manager production.

I say all this having revised my expectations from the beginning of the season. The Michigan rushing attack is good enough to scare any defense in the country and the defense has been better than expected--due in part to the fact that the offense is possessing the ball so much. If this team gets just "very good" QB play they can hang with any team in the country.

 

Joined: 08/19/2010

MGoPoints: 22292

Firstbase

October 26th, 2021 at 5:54 AM ^

Your idea of the passing game beginning to click is a valid one. Ohio State has improved their level of play on both sides of the ball as the year has progressed. We may not be at Ohio's level, but there's also good reason to expect that we will also improve in the passing game as well. We are blessed with two capable quarterbacks. Cade may be at his ceiling, but I don't necessarily think so. A breakout game for him is just three or four completions away.

Joined: 09/30/2009

MGoPoints: 9411

JFW

October 26th, 2021 at 7:39 AM ^

Totally agree. 

To my eye (get ready for a completely ad hoc analysis of a guy who can't throw, catch, or run routes) it seems like Cade's accuracy has dropped off a bit; with him having some rare but nice throws the first few games. 

That said, I absolutely love our running game and have said before Corum and Haskins may be our best backs in 15 or more years. I think some of that has to be attributed to Hart being the RB coach. 

Having a power running game with two backs isn't the only answer; but damn does it give us some nice matchups for teams that are designed to stop more of a pass spread. And I love to watch smash mouth ball control. 

Though I hated to see it happen with MSU, during their high water mark under Dantonio I once watched them switch gears and ice a game by having like a 9 minute drive and keep some high powered offense off the damned field. It was glorious. 

Joined: 10/20/2010

MGoPoints: 15285

lhglrkwg

October 25th, 2021 at 2:19 PM ^

Michigan has to set that up so that they can get a free run—nobody touched Johnson on the play—and that requires a series of feints and misdirection about who's actually coming, but the regularity with which they get through remains impressive.

IIRC they set the block up the whole game. I think I remember them giving a pressure look pre-snap all game but then they'd just throw a single guy at the shield, then they went SURPRISE and sent everyone on that one which Northwestern was totally unprepared for. I thought it was brilliant to have the foresight to set that up all game. I'd be interested to hear if Seth catches that in the UFR or anyone else noticed the same

Joined: 07/03/2008

MGoPoints: 87934

stephenrjking

October 25th, 2021 at 2:22 PM ^

Ok, JJ vs Cade:

Cade isn't making great downfield reads, and of course his throws are inconsistent (those who say he is incapable of deep throws have forgotten the first half of the season, of course, but he wasn't good downfield this week). The problem is that JJ has not demonstrated that he would be any better with any of those reads. And probably a lot worse, particularly with the pre-snap stuff that appears to be a staple of this offense.

Cade knows the offense. He's the guy who knows the playbook. Seldom are the times that guys have to be repositioned, but when it is necessary, Cade always knows where to send them. If you pull Cade, you put in JJ and gain some deep throws and some run pulls (if the coaches are willing to do that, history suggests that they'll get conservative with him if he starts) but you lose a good portion of the playbook as they make things more vanilla. That's what happened with Brandon Peters back in 2017, and frankly, what appears to happen in the few dropbacks that JJ makes now. 

And there's one more aspect that few have mentioned because we haven't needed it at the end of the game yet, but it's a big issue:

Michigan can run 2-minute drills now. They're pretty good at it. They get to the line fast and run plays and people don't look confused. It has happened in several games now, end of half, Michigan gets the ball, the 2-minute drill works. Driving right down the field, saving time, you name it. They got inside the 10 and had time and time outs to burn Saturday--when was the last time we've seen that? You want that 10% chance of beating OSU? What are the chances that we don't need to execute in one of the two-minute situations to get points to win?

Cade is the guy that the coaches believe can execute the offense as a whole. And, given that Harbaugh teams produce an exotic package of scripted plays for the OSU game every year, he's the guy that they believe can run the plays that they think give them the best chance of winning, too. 

Given what our history of QB development is, I don't expect that JJ will be particularly accurate or able to play with a particularly dense playbook if he gets the nod. I'm good with him getting time, and would like him to get more, but I don't believe that he'll be the second coming of Trevor Lawrence if he starts. 

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143860

Blue In NC

October 25th, 2021 at 3:06 PM ^

I am generally in agreement with you.  I have been a Cade supporter this year and I still think he's at least an average B1G QB.  He definitely has strong points and he certainly looks in charge of the offense.  He can run the 2 minute drill.  And I have been in favor of him starting. 

The problem is that I was hoping he would progress as the season progressed as he is still a young QB.  But I don't see much improvement game to game.  We may not need more for IN, MD and maybe even PSU.  But we may need more for MSU and very likely need more vs OSU.  I have no illusions that JJ is going to perform as steadily.  Or hit a bunch of downfield bombs as our WRs do not seem to get consistent separation.  But JJ gives you that possibility and definitely improves the run game.  And that doesn't stop Michigan from inserting Cade in a two-minute situation either.  In that case, you may need someone to short pass it down the field and move the offense quickly.  Cade can still be that guy even if JJ were to take over or play a significant portion of snaps.  

I am not calling for a change right now but if the offense is struggling vs MSU (or OSU), I might consider putting JJ in for a series or two (not just a couple of plays) and see what happens.

Joined: 06/30/2008

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JFW

October 26th, 2021 at 7:55 AM ^

The one big intangible with Cade that I wonder about is that this team really seems to be lined up behind him; JJ included. Maybe he doesn't have super spark like JJ (I honestly think that's a bit premature with the data we have on JJ) but he might be the guy to keep the team together enough to win in a tight game. 

I'm not anti-JJ or pro-Cade so much; I just don't see anything from the eye data to suggest that JJ is the guy now. Put him in a game and he has some big mistakes but also some eye popping awesomeness. 

Put him in charge and let defenses and DC's get some tape on him and the ratio of mistakes to eye popping could go South real quick. 

Joined: 10/20/2010

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jdemille9

October 25th, 2021 at 3:14 PM ^

When the coaches feel JJ is ready to be the starter, he'll be the starter. I don't think that will be this year though. So the best thing to do is keep getting him reps, like they are, and when his time comes it comes. 

Yeah, the ceiling is probably a lot lower with Cade, but the floor is much higher right now. Only Michigan fans would be complaining about stuff like this when we're 7-0 and a top ten ranked team (yes, I'm guilty of it too). 

Joined: 01/29/2011

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The Homie J

October 25th, 2021 at 4:05 PM ^

It's been less than a year but fans here are already falling into the "Joe Milton" trap with this QB debate.  Pure athleticism and throw power are not substitutes for making great reads, understanding the playbook inside and out, keeping mistakes to a minimum, hitting everything underneath, taking what the defense gives and for lack of a better word: "moxie".  

Cade is not Vince Young, Michael Vick, Deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields.  But neither is JJ.  McCarthy is a young dude with less than a year on campus in an offense/system that only runs deep if you know it well and thoroughly.  Look how open the offense looked when Cade came in versus Rutgers last year against how it looked under Milton.  Joe would absolutely destroy Cade in a foot race and can throw the ball faster and further by a wide margin.  But that doesn't mean he's the best QB who gives us the greatest chance to win.  When JJ has a full grasp on the playbook, has demonstrated the proper judgment and execution of all the necessary reads and proves he doesn't make silly mistakes (that last play in the 4th a great example of a freshman play), THEN he will start.  Until then, enjoy Cade as the QB who simply wins and keeps the engine humming even if he's not the razzle dazzle superstar we wish we had, because it can always (and usually is) be worse.

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MGoBlue96

October 25th, 2021 at 4:11 PM ^

I'm in continue to start Cade camp but people are really overstating his read ability at least from the standpoint of being able to go through progressions. His biggest issue besides legs is read progression. Not that it is an endorsement for JJ since read progression is a thing a freshman QB would also struggle with.

Joined: 12/26/2010

MGoPoints: 26099

bdneely4

October 25th, 2021 at 6:48 PM ^

I agree 100% on this. It seems that most of Cade’s progression reads are to just check down which to his defense has worked several times. I do wonder if his other reads have been open downfield though. Also, I tend to think Cade bails the reads and the pocket sometimes when he feels even a little pressure. I wish he would step up a bit more in the pocket instead of getting happy feet or bailing to one side or the other. All in all though, Cade has done a remarkable job and I believe we will be comparing QBs to Cade in the future due to his high IQ in avoiding mistakes as a quarterback. Go Blue!

Joined: 01/06/2009

MGoPoints: 13935

JFW

October 26th, 2021 at 7:59 AM ^

Ugh. I honestly would love for a QB to do more stepping up into the pocket. I don't see as much of it as I used to. 

For all the talk of not going for the run read when our QB's have a chance.. I wouldn't mind a Navarre guy honestly. No running, but will step up in the pocket and deliver a great ball. 

Joined: 10/20/2010

MGoPoints: 15285

dankbrogoblue

October 25th, 2021 at 5:05 PM ^

It will continue to be a debate until JJ gets extended time and proves worthy of starting or not.

A perfect QB does a lot of distinct things well. This includes but isn't limited to:

1.Knowing/having comfort with the playbook

2. Making pre-snap reads

3. Making post-snap reads

4. Accuracy in the short/intermediate game

5. Accuracy in the deep ball game

6. Ability to put touch on passes

7. Ability to gun balls into tight windows

et cetera, et cetera. This is to say nothing of leadership and resilience which are also huge factors.

You're almost never gonna have a QB that does all with aplomb, so you're trying to find the best combination you have in your QB room. Playcallers are going to call plays that accentuate what the QB can do well, and avoid plays that would highlight a weakness. So when it comes to JJ, we've seen some promising things but we simply don't know if his combination of strengths is better than Cade's.

For me personally, I was hoping to see Cade start to hit a Rudock-esque late season bloom, where instead he regressed a little bit (though on re-watch I thought he looked better than my initial impression, just not good on the deep balls). Perhaps it's unfair to Cade, but he will be this team's ceiling if he doesn't take a healthy step forward.

Joined: 11/12/2008

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DennisFranklinDaMan

October 25th, 2021 at 5:31 PM ^

It really comes down to having to trust the coaches on this. I really wished they had used Northwestern (and maybe one or two of the earlier-season blowouts) to get JJ more than just one play at a time. Actually let him lead several actual drives -- perhaps two or three in a row. It's just so hard to evaluate if he only does one play and comes out -- and it doesn't give him much time to relax and feel the speed of the game either.

(Obviously it's always the coach's call -- I just would think even they would like to see JJ lead some actual drives, and their failure to allow him to do so, I guess, means they really simply don't think he's ready.")

 

Joined: 01/23/2021

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JFW

October 26th, 2021 at 7:44 AM ^

Totally agree. I think Brian nailed it when he said JJ's brilliant throws can overshadow his Freshman gaffs. 

I heard a guy say 'That's a Quarterback!!!!' when JJ had his HS play. He was enamored with JJ's scrambling and last second throw and didn't stop to think he ran backwards for like 15 yards and got himself into trouble. 

Sometimes I think people would rather have the spectacle of an offense of broken plays like that rather than a more mundane, but mistake free and efficient offense. But if you're a coach and your job might be on the line mistake free and efficient looks pretty damned good. 

I personally love how they are working JJ in; getting him game experience without blowing up his mind. I do hope that A) They can keep him and B) If they do, when he starts they allow him to continue keeping the ball. Start recruiting a good backup now to ease their concerns with injury (concerns I admittedly share given our QB history here...)

Joined: 10/20/2010

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maizenbluenc

October 26th, 2021 at 8:54 AM ^

If your job was on the line, and the pre-season expectations were a ceiling of about 7-5 (and you being shown the door), and you managed to start 7-0, who would you pick?

I get the “this guy ain’t beating Ohio State” perspective, but you risk never getting the Junior JJ experienced QB season of you’re fired at the end of this season.

(I would really like Sam to ask Devin how Shane became the starter for the infamous Minnesota game, and how that affected the team dynamic.)

Joined: 07/21/2009

MGoPoints: 10630

Richard75

October 26th, 2021 at 1:12 PM ^

@stephenrjking

Good piece. Respectfully disagree.

The problem with this view is it’s self-fulfilling. It’s true that “JJ has not demonstrated that he would be any better with any of those reads,” but that can’t be the reason for not playing him more. By that rationale, JJ can’t win the job next year either. It’s circular logic: JJ can’t play because he hasn’t proved it, and he hasn’t proved it because he hasn’t played.

I think one has to make an assessment based on more than just whether a guy has experience. Potential, practice performance, everything has to factor in. Also, as Sam Webb has suggested, it doesn’t have to be a binary choice. You can keep starting Cade while mixing JJ in more.

Look at it this way. JJ has thrown 19 passes. That’s roughly the number Cade threw in the Rutgers game (16). Would you like to grade Cade solely on how he looked against Rutgers?

Joined: 09/23/2008

MGoPoints: 5291

dragonchild

October 25th, 2021 at 2:23 PM ^

OL are not allowed to convert themselves into backpacks.

The problem is that is exactly what the refs are allowing to happen.  Draping yourself over Hutchinson like a cape is the "five over the limit" of the B1G these days.

Is it time for that graph again?

Joined: 10/13/2011

MGoPoints: 60910

AC1997

October 25th, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^

I have a conspiracy theory here.  I think that some time around the time when the playoff was invented that the B10 specifically instructed their referees to cut down on holding calls.  I don't know how to find the data, but I'm convinced that within the last ~8 years the total number of calls across the entire conference is way down.  I think they wanted to increase offense, cut down on penalties overall, and chose OL holding as the play to attack.  

Michigan currently has put a TON of DL players into the NFL and it feels like none of them could get the holding calls they earned - Hurst, Wormley, Charlton, Clark, Ryan, Winovich, Henry, Martin, Gary, Uche, Glasgow, Paye, etc.

On the flip side, I do think they've done a better job with handsy CBs - something that MSU exploited for years and then Brown & Michigan exploited after that.  

Joined: 09/19/2008

MGoPoints: 13809

MGoBlue96

October 25th, 2021 at 3:17 PM ^

The counter to the holding is just not called is that someone did a analysis a couple years ago and found UM was two plus standard deviations away from the average in the conference called per team. Regardless of the reason though college officials typically are lax in calling borderline ones or ones where the offensive player at least attempted a legal block initially, but these are straight up plays where someone isn't even doing anything remotely close to a legal block. It flat out ridiculous and UM should definitely bring it to the conferences attention. As you noted UM has had a ton of good to great players in their front come through during Harbaugh's tenure who no doubt were being held frequently

 

Joined: 12/26/2010

MGoPoints: 26099

pescadero

October 25th, 2021 at 3:35 PM ^

"The counter to the holding is just not called is that someone did a analysis a couple years ago and found UM was two plus standard deviations away from the average in the conference called per team. "

Every analysis I've seen shows the better your DL, the LESS likely you are to get holding calls...

Joined: 03/28/2013

MGoPoints: 12081

evenyoubrutus

October 26th, 2021 at 7:54 AM ^

I hear this word conspiracy a lot and in some cases I think people assume it would take a conspiracy when in actuality it wouldn't. I think refs just don't like Harbaugh in general. They probably get together outside of the gridiron for wine coolers and cluck like hens about how much they hate Harbaugh. Holding is the easiest one to let slide, even if it's subconscious. People's biases are built into their daily activities far more than anyone realizes.

Joined: 11/04/2008

MGoPoints: 178243