2024 basketball roster scramble
george washington III
justin joyner
tre donaldson
Washington (right) is back in [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Basketball Searchbits: Auburn Out Of Nowhere Comment Count

Brian April 12th, 2024 at 11:45 AM

ALL RIGHT FINE JUST HIRE A GUY OUT OF LEFT FIELD

Michigan's third assistant:

That tweet finishes with "…other Top150 recruits in Jordan Ross, Mikey Lewis and Zion Sensley." Also:

Josh Henschke reports that Joyner is indeed taking one of the three off-campus recruiting slots. That's not quite picking off the top assistant at Tennessee but it's not far off. Congrats to Rod Clark on his raise.

Henschke also reports that the two non-recruiting assistant slots are going to go to a couple of his FAU guys, so this seems like the best of both worlds. You have two guys who are well regarded as P5 recruiters, another guy who's from St Mary's and therefore speaks Australian, and two guys who helped build FAU into a top 50 program.

[After THE JUMP: chair filled, more on the way] 

THIRD CHAIR FILLED

Michigan now has three confirmed scholarship guys:

Washington played sparingly on a very bad team last year but a lot of freshmen get vastly better in year two. As Michigan strives to put together a roster, a chair filled with a reasonably high upside guy who probably isn't breaking the NIL bank seems like a good idea.

FILED UNDER NON-SPECULATIVE RECRUITS

The last post mentioned Auburn PG Aden Holloway in the speculative phone call section because he has deep family ties to Michigan, so let's take a big sip of coffee and check out the latest 24/7 transfer portal predictions:

image

That's the wrong Auburn point guard? Sophomore Tre Donaldson split time down the middle with Holloway this year (nobody on Auburn had more than 62% of their minutes and ten guys played at least a third of the time); Donaldson was lower usage than Holloway but a more efficient shooter (50/41/78); both his TO rate and assist rate were higher than Holloway's. Game sample:

Donaldson was very good as a pick and roll ball handler, very good as a spot-up shooter, and very bad at isolation he was forced into for a relatively large chunk of his shots (11%, which is 87th percentile). Unfortunately, jumpers off the bounce were over 60% of his shots last year. He was okay at these (eFG of 40%), but being just okay on dribble jumpers is inefficient offense.

You could read this one of two ways. One: cannot generate good shots. Two: was still pretty efficient overall despite a Synergy profile that suggests his ORTG should be sub-100. Think of the upside in a Dusty May offense that's been top 50 in eFG the last three years. 

On3's Joe Tipton is also hearing Michigan is likely here, so this is two established national guys asserting this will likely come to pass. There has to be some connection here we don't know about yet. 

Other guys who are setting up visits or have a lead group:

  • OSU CG Roddy Gayle Jr (106 ORTG on 25% usage, 51/28/83 shooting, 20 A rate, 19 TO rate) is setting up visits with Michigan and Georgia.
  • Morehead State PG Drew Thelwell (110 ORTG on 19% usage, 51/34/66, top 100 assist rate, 21 TO rate) has a rough top six with Michigan in it.
  • St Mary's PF Joshua Jefferson (110 ORTG on 23% usage, 54/28/72, DREB monster, elevated steal rate, coming off knee surgery) is setting up a visit in the wake of Michigan hiring Joyner.
  • Tulane SG Kolby King (110 ORTG on 19% usage, 56/37/74, 11 assist rate vs 16 TO rate) is also setting up a visit.
  • 2024 CG Justin Pippen (yes that Pippen) will be visiting this weekend, per 247's Davis Moseley. Pippen is a late riser who's shot up 24/7's rankings while others lag behind.

HAS RECEIVED A TEXT

More long, uh, list:

  • Oregon State PG Jordan Pope (110 ORTG on 26% usage, 50/37/88 shooting, real nice A:TO).

SPECULATIVE PERCENTAGES TIME

  • Vlad Goldin: 95%.
  • Tre Donaldson: off the board –> 80%. Two national guys saying they're hearing Michigan is pretty good.
  • Johnell Davis: 70% –> 60%: Seems like NIL will be a big factor and while May is going to try, I would not assume Davis's personal loyalty will win out when he's got one year to make bank before a pro career that doesn't seem like it'll be in the NBA.
  • George Washington III: 60% –> 100%. Withdrew from portal.
  • Khani Rooths: 60%.
  • Danny Wolf: 60%.
  • Connor Essegian: 50%.
  • Alijah Martin: 40%.
  • Aden Holloway: 40%.
  • Elijah Elliott/Ty Robinson/Lorenzo Cason: 40%.
  • Joshua Jefferson: off the board –> 40%. Joyner connection makes this more likely than most instances where M is in a top five.
  • Terrance Williams: 30%.
  • Dante Maddox: 10% –> 20%. Maddox says he wants to wrap up his recruitment by the end of April, which gives Michigan time to get a visit in. Maddox also mentioned that May recruited him out of high school, so there's a connection there.
  • Roddy Gayle Jr: off the board –> 20%.
  • Drew Thelwell: off the board –> 20%.
  • Kolby King: off the board –> 20%.
  • Justin Pippen: off the board –> 20%
  • Carey Booth: 20% –> 10%. M not mentioned in recent 247 article.
  • Brandon Garrison: 10%.
  • Eric Dailey: 10%.
  • Liam McNeeley: 1%.

SPECULATIVE ROSTER

We can put together something resembling a roster now.

PG: Tre Donaldson (Jr), Durral Brooks (Fr), Elijah Elliott (Fr)
SG: Jonnell Davis (Sr*), Connor Essegian (Jr), George Washinton III (So)
SF: Khani Rooths (Fr), Nimari Burnett (Jr*), Jace Howard (Sr*)
PF: Joshua Jefferson (Jr), Will Tschetter (Jr)
C: Vlad Goldin(Sr*), Danny Wolf (Jr)

That might be good?

Comments

Kilgore Trout

April 12th, 2024 at 12:29 PM ^

We will see, but from his interview on 247 it seems like he had an honest and realistic conversation with May. It sounds like he likes going to school at UM and living here, so that probably means more than we sometimes realize. Also, if he wants to play high major basketball, I'm not sure he really will have any other options after last year.

Joined: 02/20/2009

MGoPoints: 13178

Some Call Me.... Tim

April 12th, 2024 at 4:26 PM ^

When non-athletes transfer here (i.e. without pressure to get them in) most come with either a year or two elsewhere. The admissions issue is solely bc UM is extraordinarily specific with the higher level class equivalents. Pre-reqs they are fine with, but the higher level electives are overly specific. Most Freshmen and Sphomores shouldn't have issues here

Joined: 02/19/2013

MGoPoints: 1397

meeashagin

April 12th, 2024 at 12:17 PM ^

Michigan still team building on a budget.

Why do we accept this as a fan base?

Nobody is saying annually spend like programs that are serious about winning but have the ability to make exceptions for the right talent like Davis. You know our new coaches superstar guard.

  

Joined: 03/25/2018

MGoPoints: 5097

RobM_24

April 12th, 2024 at 1:57 PM ^

I'm actually indifferent on Davis. If he was a multi-year player, I'd feel more strongly about wanting to be in the NIL race to get him. But as just a 1 year guy, it might be better long-term to have younger guys play bigger roles -- especially if we can get guys like Essegian and Rooths. Obviously, I'd love to have Davis if they can get a "Head Coach discount".

Joined: 01/27/2014

MGoPoints: 63687

93Grad

April 12th, 2024 at 12:28 PM ^

That speculative roster looks pretty good to me other than Jace.  Would rather take flyer on a late rising/low ranked/high upside incoming freshman who can be developed for the following season.

Joined: 07/26/2011

MGoPoints: 13693

King Tot

April 12th, 2024 at 1:04 PM ^

This take doesn't make a ton of sense to me. This year we may struggle to fill an entire roster so having a legacy player around is not a negative and his roster spot will be available next year when we are more stable. A low ranked freshman may take years to develop or be a waste of a scholarship. 

I also just do not like forcing guys out. How many people begged for Austin Davis to be pushed out and he became a legitimate contributor. 

Joined: 11/29/2016

MGoPoints: 19279

Hanlon's Razor

April 12th, 2024 at 1:23 PM ^

I think some may tie Jace's behavior to Sanderson leaving and have some feelings about that, which, imo, is fair. Though I only share the sentiment in part. There's also a reasonable question to be asked about what kind of locker room influence he is. Though I'm sure coach May has done his homework on this. 

Joined: 08/19/2018

MGoPoints: 3850

King Tot

April 12th, 2024 at 2:18 PM ^

I think we have different information or different definitions of what fair is. We do not have enough information to make a judgement call on how responsible Jace was for the Sanderson incident. I also do not see any reason to question his locker room influence more than any other returning player. 

Joined: 11/29/2016

MGoPoints: 19279

snarling wolverine

April 12th, 2024 at 7:58 PM ^

I also just do not like forcing guys out.

I don't have a strong opinion on whether he should stay or not, but it's always been considered fair game for a coach to give a "firm handshake" after four years.  When you give a guy a scholarship, you're committing to him for four years.  The fifth is at the coach's discretion.

Joined: 12/14/2011

MGoPoints: 98366

RobM_24

April 12th, 2024 at 2:04 PM ^

Jace had multiple season of happily cheering on his teammates from the bench while being the leader of the bench mob celebrations. In my opinion, that is as important in the decision to retain him as the Sanderson stuff. His Dad and Sanderson had beef, clearly. It may have reached a boiling point with or without Jace's incident. Also, Jace was misdiagnosed and was trying to rehab through an injury they didn't know he had. Who knows what kind of rift that made between Jace and the training staff. 

Joined: 01/27/2014

MGoPoints: 63687

bluewave720

April 13th, 2024 at 12:19 PM ^

Leader of bench celebrations is really a big deal imo.  That may sound like snark, but it’s not. It’s really easy to just chill on the bench. Being vocal and supportive of your teammates is always a positive tiebreaker for me. 
Also agree with the opinion others have posted not to force a player out. 

Joined: 07/17/2009

MGoPoints: 6565

ex dx dy

April 12th, 2024 at 12:44 PM ^

I count 4 returners, 3 incoming freshmen, and an expected value of 7.26 portals in, according to Brian's speculative percentages, for a total expected roster size of 14.26 players.

Joined: 10/30/2018

MGoPoints: 4410