Joel Klatt picks Alabama over Michigan in the Rose Bowl

Submitted by M-Dog on December 29th, 2023 at 2:40 PM

Joel Klatt has been very pro-Michigan in these preview segments that he has done this season.  He was a voice of comfort for us before the Penn State and Ohio State games in particular with his previews. 

But he is now picking Alabama over Michigan in the Rose Bowl.  His rationale is based on how poorly we ran the ball against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game (a game he called).  He attributes that to the Zinter injury and does not think we can adequately overcome it.

IMO, Klatt is the best analyst in college football, so it's hard to argue with him.  But I am a little surprised that he takes Michigan's offensive performance against Iowa at "face value".  Once the Semaj return led to a TD, Michigan's offense was purposely shut down.  At that point the intent of the offense was to keep things from happening, not to make anything happen.

I don't know how good the Michigan offense will be against Alabama, but it certainly won't be a repeat of the Michigan offense against Iowa.

But . . . Klatt has to call it the way he sees it and this is what he sees.  I respect his analysis.  And I hope it's wrong.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmYDzTv8R1Y

  

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wolverinestuckinEL

December 29th, 2023 at 3:14 PM ^

I hope they recognize their weaknesses, flex out Loveland, put Edwards in motion and spread him out wide on half his snaps.  They don't win this game with the gameplans they had against Penn State, Iowa, or OSU.  I'd hope with a month and a roomful of smart minds they figure out how to take advantage of non-WR matchups.

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funkywolve

December 29th, 2023 at 4:18 PM ^

Watson I'll agree put their teams on the shoulders, but the 2019 LSU team was loaded.  The 3 wide receivers are all in the NFL and were drafted in the 1st or 2nd round.  2 of the 3 were Jemarr Chase and Justin Jefferson.  4 of the 5 olinemen are in the NFL.  The running back was Clyde-Edwards Ellaire who is playing in the NFL.

On defense both of LSU's corners are playing in the NFL, one of the safeties is in the NFL, 2 of their 3 dlinemen are in the NFL, and all 4 of their LB's are in the NFL.

Of their 22 starters, they have 18 guys in the NFL 

Lawrence had some talent around him too.  Travis Etienne was the running back.  2 of their 3 wr's are in the NFL.  2 of their olinemen are in the NFL.  All 4 db's are in the NFL, 1 of the 3 LBs is in the NFL and all 4 of their dlineman are in the NFL.  That's 15 of their 22 starters in the NFL.

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M_Born M_Believer

December 29th, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^

Ok we can play this too...  While it is just a projection, I believe I will be close to accurate...

Current Michigan roster - 

RBs - 2 absolutely DUH (both are high caliber players).... 

TEs - 2 absolutely and 1 is projecting to be a high caliber TE

WRs - 1.5 - I believe Wilson sticks on a NFL roster, Johnson will be a fringe

OL - 3 for sure maybe 4 - Keegan, Jones, Nugent... Barnhart maybe, but I believe he will be bumped to G at the NFL level

DT - 3 very special players, Jenkins, Mason and Grant are gifts from the football Gods

DE - I'm going to be harsh here, at the end of the day I only see 2 maybe and they will be more fringe players in the NFL - McGregor and Moore

LB - 2+ Colston and Barrett, Hauseman eventually still learning

S - 2+ - Mikey and Moore.  I like Paige, local kid from WB, but TBD

CB - 1 - Johnson, and he is plus NFL player

So this current starting lineup has 18 NFL players,  8of them plus NFL players (Corum, Edwards, Loveland, DTs, Mikey, and Johnson), 10 more NFL caliber players, and 4 more NFL fringe players (I waffled above, but here is the summary)

People need to get a grip here.  BPONE is certainly creeping in here.  The main issue is the lack of confidence in our coaching staff to properly attack this game (I personally put a LARGE chunk of the TCU loss on the coaches, both Offense AND Defense, but thats an old post)

Does Michigan enough talent to win this game?   Hell Yay...

I the opponent really good?  Ummm yay, its Bama and Saban and I agree with others, Nick is one of the few coaches you really do not want to give a month to prepare for.  Which really comes down to the final question...

Will Michigan coaches come up with a Game Plan, both offense and defense that will raise the level of play for everyone in this game?  Or will they stick to the same ole' same ole' with just a couple of trick plays....? 

For them to win, it needs to be the former, don't need to be a radical but need to attack Bama where we can... big games are needed from JJ to Loveland and Edwards, Blake needs to grind out his carries.  On D, our DT have to dominate the middle, our DE need to contain and our secondary need to prevent the big play.  Mix up coverages and confuse Milroe...

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Double-D

December 29th, 2023 at 3:28 PM ^

JJ and play calling.

We should be able to get enough in the run game to make play action effective. Corum will have some nice runs. We should get some push up the middle and need to activate JJs legs.

TEs should find some room over the middle and we should be able to hit on some quick outs to the WRs. I hope we have schemed some iso with Donovan Edwards on their LBs.  

Minter should have Milroe confused enough that we will have a couple of interception opportunities and we need to make them.

Michigan ranks #2 overall in penalties at 26.3 ypg.  Bama has been penalty prone this year ranking #55 at 49.2 ypg.

Our players have more experience in the CFP setting. This game should be ours to win.

 

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ShoelacesFlapp…

December 29th, 2023 at 2:53 PM ^

I don't understand this narrative that we "shut down" the offense against Iowa. After the Corum TD to go up 10-0, we still threw the ball 9 out of 19 times on first down. Sure we used very little play action or QB run, but when we have used those all year? I would absolutely take our performance against Iowa at face value, and I don't have much confidence that this O-line can move anybody in the run game, or keep JJ clean in the pocket.

Joined: 01/03/2023

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BlueTimesTwo

December 29th, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^

Dinking and dunking in the passing game and not running JJ are pretty big signs that we did not feel threatened and did not need to take any risks.  And if we didn't uncharacteristically drop some passes we usually catch (again, not super focused on the opponent), the margin of victory would have been more significant.

Mainly I hope that we have self-scouted to find new wrinkles and that we remember how to put the offense in high gear.  We haven't even had to bother with that in a while.

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k1400

December 29th, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^

If Alabama's linebackers are vulnerable, and with the need to get the ball out quick, short/medium range dink dunk might be the right thing anyway.  Get Edwards involved in the passing game, as has been called for ad nauseum. 

Activate QB run game with a fully healthy JJ.  This is the game we've been saving him for.  Actually OSU was the game we were saving him for, but he wasn't 100%. 

Meh.  Klatt's opinion isn't unreasonable.  Hopefully he's just wrong.

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stephenrjking

December 29th, 2023 at 3:43 PM ^

Michigan didn't go into the bag of tricks or anything. They kept the game low-risk, since that's the only way you lose to Iowa with a two-score lead.

But: It's not unreasonable to compare this game with games against Iowa teams in 21 and 22 that were also notoriously offensively inept and note that Michigan had a way easier time on offense in those games in situations with similar levels of stakes. 

I want Joel to be wrong, but he's not being irrational or a hater here. Michigan has played one full game without our best OL and we all saw it and Joel is using it as data for Michigan's next game. 

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TBuck97

December 29th, 2023 at 2:58 PM ^

Bummer bc Klatt is definitely one of the best analysts out there. But part of me likes people picking against UM bc this team seems to react better to that. Especially if you look at the way UM typically plays on the road versus at home. They love proving people wrong. Or at least I’m telling myself that so I can sleep like a baby. 

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The Fugitive

December 29th, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^

Many pundits don't know anything and are just blowhards or hot take artists.  to date, I'd never put Klatt in that category so him picking Alabama has some merit.  He called the last 4 UM games of the year and knows this team better than most.  

he's on record saying Harbaugh has never lied to him.  he very easily could have asked in a meeting how the OL is doing without Zinter.  if Harbaugh gave an honest answer of 'we're still not healthy and they'll have to play out of their minds for us to have a glimmer of hope' that may cause Joel to lean towards Bama.

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stephenrjking

December 29th, 2023 at 4:05 PM ^

Harbaugh isn't likely to be that frank with any media person. Which is very different than lying. 

I'm glad he spoke about Harbaugh not lying, because in my experience that has always been true. In recent seasons when he has considered NFL jobs he has not denied it, but has instead changed the subject or talked past it (he's doing that again this year, which is fine). When he has denied it categorically it hasn't been fake. He has told recruits that he will consider NFL jobs. 

And so it is with everything. Harbaugh's not a guy to just lie. He will dodge direct answers, as most people do at times for good reasons, but he won't lie. I admire this about him.

If Joel asked him such a question straight up I would expect him not to be direct, but not to lie. But Joel isn't covering any more of Michigan's games, so I don't expect that such a question will be asked. 

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BlueTimesTwo

December 29th, 2023 at 3:02 PM ^

It is funny how the perception of this game has changed since the end of the season.  No new information, really, other than passage of time since we beat OSU and beat Iowa without really trying too hard.  And also the passage of time since Bama needed a prayer to beat a bad Auburn team and beat a dinged-up Georgia team.

It seems that at this point we are back to stargazing and comparing the Harbaugh and Saban bowl records.  But this isn't the Harbaugh of 5 years ago, and this isn't a Saban team of the Bama heyday.  If we can beat OSU we can beat Bama.  Hopefully we come out with the appropriate game plan to get it done.

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M-Dog

December 29th, 2023 at 3:05 PM ^

Klatt brought this up in the video.  The world looked different post-Ohio State for Michigan and post-Auburn for Alabama.  Then came the Georgia and Iowa games which were eye-openers for him.  The perceptions did indeed change.  There was new information.

 

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bronxblue

December 29th, 2023 at 3:47 PM ^

But I think Klatt's reading of this new information isn't necessarily objective.  It's "Michigan underwhelmingly beat a maligned Iowa without running the ball well" ignores the fact Michigan was up early and then got some short fields due to TOs and a big punt return.  Alabama played well against Georgia but they were decidedly more up for that game than Michigan was for Iowa, and it showed.  Now, Alabama was clearly not as engaged for Auburn while UM was up for their game against OSU, and the results were markedly different.

I'm all for new data points but what people seem to be doing is taking one data point over all others and assuming time started the week after Thanksgiving and that doesn't make a ton of sense to me from an analysis standpoint.

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MGoGrendel

December 29th, 2023 at 3:02 PM ^

Once the Semaj return led to a TD, Michigan's offense was purposely shut down. 

Agree!  Once Michigan got to 7 points first, they knew the game was over.

Also, the odds makers knew the same!  The over/under for Iowa points was 0.5 for each half.

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Amazinblu

December 29th, 2023 at 4:21 PM ^

But, Michigan didn’t cover the spread against Iowa, did they ?   Ummmm…. Yes, they did.

Was there any reason to show anything against Iowa?   I don’t think so.

Michigan needs two things - a healthy JJ, Will Johnson, and Nugent.  And - for good measure - to have Corso pick Bama.

I respect Klatt. I respect Bama.  And, I respect Team 144.  

Go Blue!

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NJblue2

December 29th, 2023 at 3:04 PM ^

I figure most people will pick Bama. I don't blame them, I think most people assume Bama is just better and the whole SEC is better than everyone. 

OSU is the only team from the B1G that anyone would pick to beat a SEC team.

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M Go Cue

December 29th, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^

TV football people feel like they are required to make predictions but they don’t mean anything.  It’s not like he will be catapulted into a canyon if he’s wrong.

Fwiw, I haven’t been worried about a game this year, and I’m not worried about this one.  It’s a weird feeling but I kinda like it.

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B-Nut-GoBlue

December 29th, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^

As much as I want to say we turtled and went vanilla (I wanted JJ on the sideline in the 2nd quarter, up 17-0) we still had dropbacks and JJ RUNNING, so we hadn't completely given up and were still trying.  And it wasn't very promising, I hate to say.

I agree with Klatt.

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