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An Opportunity
12/2/2023 – Michigan 26, Iowa 0 – 13-0, 9-0 Big Ten, Big Ten Champs
Two years ago this game was a coronation, a delight, a confection. Michigan broke out a halfback pass in the first half, and a reverse that went a billion yards, and sort of exuberantly leaned on Iowa until they capitulated in the second half. Michigan's lead at halftime in that game: 11.
Michigan's lead at halftime in this game: 10. It wasn't more largely because Colston Loveland dropped a pass at his facemask while a couple yards clear of the coverage, set to run a great distance down the sideline. But things felt different.
I believe it was Matt Hinton who said that Michigan fans almost didn't care about getting shredded by the Georgia buzzsaw because everything after Ohio State was gravy. As someone who attended that game and was in largely Georgia section, the "almost" is doing some work in that sentence. But it is largely correct. The disappointment faded quickly, replaced with a lingering sunset of beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten.
Two years later, there is still that lingering sunset, yes. Especially given all the nonsense surrounding this year's edition of The Game. You KNOW I am sensitive to winning against Ohio State for the third year in a row.
But!
-------------------------------------------------
Michigan is not staring down the Soon To Be Philadelphia Eagles this time around. Georgia looked kind of off kilter much of the season and lost to Alabama, which means the SP+ rankings of the teams in the playoff look like this:
1. Michigan
6. Texas
7. Alabama
11. Washington
Texas is 7.5 points adrift of Michigan. Alabama is 8.4. Washington is 13.7. I do not quite believe this, largely because Penn State ranks 4th and Michigan is getting credit for stuffing them in a locker when pretty much any top-ten defense would have done the same. Vegas installed Michigan as a mere two-point favorite over Alabama, so they don't either. But this is a huge departure from what usually happens these days, which are lines that hew so closely to SP+ projections that Bill Connelly occasionally crabs about it on Twitter. Usually the numbers are good enough to get Vegas in line, but maybe not when the numbers would install Michigan more than a TD favorite right after Alabama beat Georgia.
Or you could visualize it like this:
Every single way you can systematically evaluate college football teams has Michigan a sizable favorite to win the national title. Connelly's numbers have it 50/50 between Michigan and the field. The reasons you would not believe those numbers range from misunderstandings of the way Michigan plays football (with maximum contempt for most opponents) to legitimate but probably not sufficient to close the gap. That latter is primarily Zak Zinter's injury.
In short: it all happened. There was a month-long storm of nonsense in the middle of it but nothing could knock Michigan off their perch. At the beginning of the year, it looked like The Year:
Every single one of us has stared grimly at the wall wondering if it would ever happen. Well. Here it is. It might not happen, by by God they're gonna try.
Let's go name some wild dreams, on three.
Even in the most optimistic world this is still a coinflip for immortality. Heads or tails?
AWARDS
Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week
[Patrick Barron]
#1 Mike Sainristil. Two(-ish) forced fumbles leading to turnovers, a near-interception, and a postgame interview that caused Mark Ingram to exclaim "oh, you polished!" Running for Senate in the future. Or maybe becoming Michigan's head coach down the road.
#2 Semaj Morgan. Did one(1) thing, and then let a couple of punts drop that were questionable decisions. But did the thing, and if people were joking about 3-0 being game, 10-0 really was game.
#3 Junior Colson. A billion tackles at the line of scrimmage… and pass breakups? Filing under Played Iowa. But still! But filing under played Iowa.
Honorable mention: Cornelius Johnson had many catches for not many yards. Mason Graham, Kris Jenkins, and Kenneth Grant stuffed the ground game. Jaylen Harrell had a TFL and a PBU; Braiden McGregor had a strip-sack that Grant recovered.
KFaTAotW Standings.
(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)
53: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers, HM Nebraska, #2 Minn, #1 IU, #1 MSU, HM PUR, HM PSU, #1 OSU)
29: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers, #1 Neb, HM MSU, T2 OSU, HM Iowa)
28: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers, HM IU, HM MSU, #1 MD, #1 Iowa)
25: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 Minn, HM IU, HM MSU, T2 MD, T2 OSU, HM Iowa)
22: Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM IU, #1 PSU, HM MD, #3 OSU)
21: Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV, #2 PSU, T2 MD, T2 OSU, HM Iowa)
14: Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, #3 Nebraska, #2 PUR), Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers, #2 IU, T1 PUR, HM MD, HM OSU)
13: Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PUR, HM MD, #3 OSU)
11: AJ Barner (HM BGSU, HM Neb, HM Minn, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PSU),
11: Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV, #2 Nebraska, T1 PUR, HM Iowa)
10: Will Johnson(#3 Minn, #3 PUR, HM PSU, #3 OSU), Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM IU, T1 PUR, #3 OSU, HM Iowa)
9: Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers, HM MSU, #3 Iowa)
8: Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM Minn, HM Iowa)
7: Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV, HM Neb, HM MSU, T1 PUR),
5: Tommy Doman (HM ECU, #3 MD, HM OSU), Semaj Morgan(#2 Iowa)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers, HM Neb, T3 IU), Josiah Stewart (HM Minn, T1 PUR), The Offensive Line (HM Minn, #3 PSU),
3: Donovan Edwards (HM ECU, HM PSU, HM OSU)
2: Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers, HM PUR), Rod Moore (HM PUR, HM OSU), Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers, HM OSU)
1: Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), Kalel Mullings (HM Minn),Keon Sabb (HM Minn), Ben Hall (HM IU), Rayshaun Benny (HM PSU), Cam Goode (HM MD), James Turner(HM OSU)
Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week
Semaj Morgan sets a Big Ten championship game record for longest punt return:
Honorable mention: Sainristil forces two fumbles, the second of which sends Brian Ferentz into a conniption fit. Nobody gets hurt.
MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK
Colston Loveland drops a pass midway through the second quarter, turning a catch and run down to the 30—maybe 20—into a punt and causing Consternation amongst the Faithful.
Honorable mention: Barner drops a pass on third and thirteen that would have set up first and goal inside the five. McCarthy nearly throws an INT on a ball well behind Loveland. A Tommy Doman punt is possessed by the spirit of the corn and bounces ten yards backwards instead of ten yards forwards.
NICK SAMAC PATHETIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK![samac_thumb1 samac_thumb1](https://mgoblog.com/sites/default/files/samac_thumb1_thumb.png)
Big Ten commissioner Tony Pettiti congratulates the conference champions with a memorable speech: "…"
Dishonorable mention: The CFP committee excludes a 13-0 conference champion in favor of a team that barely escaped 6-6 Auburn a week ago.
OFFENSE
this was probably for three yards [Paul Sherman]
A day dominated by one consideration. JJ McCarthy was 22/30 in this game and still managed just 4.9 YPA. Do you know how hard that is? It is very hard. Michigan receivers had a long of 14 yards. Cornelius Johnson averaged 7.1 yards a catch on nine catches. There were zero deep shots of any variety, zero cover-two hole shots, and just one ball anywhere near an Iowa defender, that an attempt to hit Loveland that was thrown well behind him.
This gameplan was "do not turn the ball over and we win."
I'm not concerned that JJ won't be aggressive enough against Alabama, FWIW. I don't think the guy who was ready to dial up a shot back across his body to Cornelius Johnson in the fourth quarter against OSU is going to be in a shell in a game where Michigan will need to dial it up to win. He's been very good about reading the room this year and doing what's best for the W.
A big part of that YPA. This isn't quite "you can't do that against Iowa" but you can't do that against Iowa:
And the final example of some voodoo doll bs going on:
— Due# (@JDue51) December 4, 2023
Colston Loveland has the best hands of any TE in the league, and there’s plenty of video evidence to back that up.
He’s wide open, JJ puts it on the money, and there’s lots of yards after catch ahead of him. Maybe a TD.
pic.twitter.com/O0Melm1WHD
If Loveland doesn't drop that it looks like a desperation ankle tackle by the DB or he's inside the 20.
Stripes Hate Trente Jones. Second consecutive week that Trente Jones gets hit with a ludicrously weak holding call when JJ McCarthy breaks the pocket and Jones has an infinitesimal moment between realizing the defensive end is chasing JJ outside and letting go of the dude. In these situations you might stop and re-evaluate these plays and come to the conclusion that there is something Jones is doing to draw these calls, or you could watch them again and issue refs –3. This is what I am doing in the cold light of day, especially given what we see happen to the Michigan DL on a weekly basis.
The Jones hold was consequential: it turned a first and ten around the Iowa 40 into second and seventeen. Michigan tossed another short pass, this one to Peyton O'Leary for some reason, and then faced third and twelve.
These are the two events that made first half offense seem bad. Michigan drove the field for a FG on their first drive and probably attempts to convert on fourth down if playing anyone but Iowa. Second drive starts on the five. Third drive is the one with the hold. Iowa gets a three and out on the next drive, and the two minute drill features the Loveland drop. Margins are thin against a team like Iowa, and Michigan had some big errors stall them out.
Probably not a thing you'd expect to recur since we have a season of data suggesting it won't.
[Barron]
What are we doing with Donovan Edwards? There were a number of plays on which Iowa showed man-to-man coverage with Edwards split out. Edwards invariably motioned back into the backfield when this happened. They never took a shot at Edwards, or even looked him up on a slant.
Even more frustrating were times when Iowa would show and run man coverage and Edwards would leak out of the backfield and sit down in front of a linebacker. One angle route there and Edwards is running for a million yards. I don't know; it just seems like something is off with him. And the coaches.
Here’s another example of some weird juju.
— Due# (@JDue51) December 4, 2023
What is Donovan even doing? Trippin on shrooms?
100% positive he didn’t know the play.
I feel certain we won’t see weird stuff like this against Bama. pic.twitter.com/GXm16SHEXA
He's barely been used in the pass game. #1 must fix before the 'Bama game. Alabama has lockdown corners; Edwards needs to be a factor.
[Barron]
Orji + Mullings + Edwards: let's go. Look I'm just saying that Bama gave up 300 yards rushing to an Auburn team that had no threat of the pass but did run the QB a bunch. We got a month to install the single wing, let's go.
You can't get away with that against Iowa. Michigan covered a slot receiver a couple of times; on the second they threw a flare screen to Corum. On both plays the Iowa DB over Wilson was crashing the line of scrimmage on the snap, because Wilson cannot go downfield. Wilson picked up a holding call on the second.
Maybe there are defenses out there that won't notice a covered slot. Iowa is not one of them.
Wilson: not Bell. Michigan has to stop running plays where they expect Roman Wilson to be a tiny tight end. Every single time they tried it in this game they just added someone to the box and Wilson did not get an effective block. I didn't like this even when it was Bell; Wilson is smaller and less experienced at attempting to get blocks in the box.
DEFENSE
large man has ball [Barron]
No? I got nothin' here. I mean, we were back to first-half snaps for DJ Waller and Amorion Walker in this one. When Michigan plays bad offenses at the beginning of the season it's still kind of interesting because there are new guys working their way into the lineup, second- and third-year players who might make a leap, etc. When you play the worst offense in college football in game 13 the mission is to not get hurt. Mission accomplished.
I do have a couple things.
A daring overturn. The officials ruled the second Sainristil forced fumble an incomplete pass on the field, and then they went to commercial. When we came back, Michigan had the ball and Brian Ferentz was stalking the sideline like Biff The Wolverine, having lost his damn mind at the overturn. He was given a penalty.
I'm kind of with Ferentz here? In my zaprudering of that play it seems like there's a couple frames in which Hill's hand is coming forward, so for the replay official to overturn the call on the field instead of doing the default cop-out "stands" is extremely strange. We go from this:
To this:
There's a period of time where the ball is moving forward and then Hill cocks it back to throw, stalling out the motion of the ball, and again it seems like there's a frame or two where it's moving forward before Sainristil gets it. It is not at all clear that Sainristil got it, and in that case you just let it stand. To overturn it is, uh, bold.
I don't think the recovery aspect of the play is nearly as controversial. It hits the ground, ref signals incomplete, and nobody has a prayer of recovering the ball except Wallace, who grabs it. That's fine. But overturning a 50/50 call is odd.
The bigguns. Michigan actually got to run their "base" defense in this game, what with Iowa doing two TEs a lot. Michigan added a DT to the equation and clubbed the Iowa run game.
This may be relevant for the Rose Bowl . Bama has three mediocre TEs who have about 1200 snaps between them. Their most-used player, OL JC Latham, has 808 snaps. I calculate that Bama averages 1.44 tight ends per snap. If Bama does not deviate that means that about 44% of the time Michigan gets to chuck a bonus DT on the field while Alabama puts on a worse player.
A dollar says that Bama dumps ~all of their 2TE sets. If don't it should be advantage M.
Good job, team. Next.
SPECIAL TEAMS
[Barron]
It was over when. It was kind of over when Michigan kicked a field goal to go up 3-0. It was very over after Semaj Morgan summoned the Ghost of Breaston Past, ghosted past two gunners, set up the second phase of his return, and set a record for the longest punt return in a Big Ten championship game:
Semaj Morgan nearly housed the punt.
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) December 3, 2023
: FOX/@CFBONFOX pic.twitter.com/i8NSGqRakd
This was the flashiest bit of Michigan out-Iowaing Iowa.
You don't portal out of Iowa, but… the kid who tracked Morgan down is from Ypsi and is kind of the next guy at safety for them. I might drop a line to his high school coach.
James Turner: smooth. A couple of bumps early but he's on fire down the stretch. Randy Sklar's hot take on the podcast was that he's better than Moody, and that's a good hot take because it's not true buuuuuuuuut…
MISCELLANEOUS
The elusive Pettiti, spotted in the wild.
[Paul Sherman]
Our man was there and everything. Shame about the greatest scandal in college football history and all.
Iowa's got shirts. Iowa has better shirt game than anyone else in the nation.
[Barron]
I don't know why this is so funny to me. But it is:
— Prettyman (@HoracePrettyman) December 3, 2023
I enjoy the contrast between Morgan, who had some notable things to say after last week's game, and Sainristil. Takes all kinds. You gotta have some Guys Who Can Play For Florida, and Morgan has that in spades.
Am I paranoid? A strange thing happened to me while watching this game. I put it on, never paused it, and in the third quarter I checked twitter to find out that Sainristil had caused a second fumble (more or less) while I had not even started the commercial break that preceded it. I spent the rest of the commercial breaks asking google to fast forward, and got to skip two entirely before I got caught up. I would not put it past the powers that be to insert bonus commercials into streaming services.
I may just be paranoid, but I was very confused as to how I managed to end up 3-5 minutes behind the rest of the world.
Conservative decisions, fine. Michigan elected to kick a field goal on fourth and one after going for it on fourth and seven from the plus 36 on the same drive. Against any other team they are going for it in that situation; against Iowa that field goal was literally the winning points.
Correct decision-making gets more conservative the worse the opposition offense is, which is why I was fine with Michigan's fourth-quarter approach against Penn State but somewhat cranky after Maryland. I'm not sure there's a way to be too conservative when you're up 10-0 against Iowa.
HERE
Worst: Profile in Courage
Anthony Petitti, former president of a totally real “Sports and Entertainment Sector” at noted not-shitty-place-to-work Activision Blizzard and the guy responsible for multiple Super Bowl broadcasts including the time Janet Jackson became a social pariah because Justin Timberlake pulled her top off, was hired about a year ago with basically one responsibility:
As one college sports insider describes it, Petitti is a safe and solid hire who needs to only “keep the [Big Ten] train running on time.”
That’s it. Unlike this author he went to Harvard Law School but like this author he barely practiced law and instead just turned to being a business guy, the type of stuffed suit who comes in and looks like a Getty image babbling about “synergy” while some fourth-year associate is missing the birth of his first kid so that he can hammer out an agreement with leagues that makes a lot of already-rich people richer while making absolutely sure as little of that goes to the athletes as possible. He’s never come across as particularly intelligent or thoughtful, and outside of playing baseball at a DIII college his involvement in college football seems to be as a self-proclaimed “lifelong” fandom of the sport. Before becoming the Big 10 commissioner he’d never served in an administrative capacity within organized athletics at all, let alone collegiate sports. If you told me he walked into the wrong interview with a briefcase full of pot but showed some chutzpah explaining it away and that earned him the gig I wouldn’t be totally shocked. He was in the right place at the right time, when a league in need of a new head man also walked into a huge media deal bolstered by the unexpected exodus of big-name programs due to the dissolution of the Pac-12. He didn’t “earn” this spot, his bona fides being that he’s a “TV guy” who’s negotiated media deals in an era where leagues negotiate media deals for billions of dollars. Mind you, those negotiations aren’t like how they’re portrayed on TV and in movies, where some steely-eyed men argue in broad generalities while everyone looks on in awe, but instead an almost mind-numbing number of terse emails and lengthy calls between conference rooms full of lawyers red-lining Word files to within an inch of their lives over the meaning of articles like “a”, “and”, and “the”. Petitti seems like nothing more than an number of mediocre start-up CEOs we’ve all met, who looked the part and got funding because of low interest rates in spite of dubious business value, but rarely has he been pressed to handle a thorny issue that required real leadership.
At Activision Blizzard, for example, he laid off 50 people and then left a month before a massive lawsuit by the CA Department of Fair Employment and Housing, and after that worked at a place called the 33rd Team that puts out short video clips of former coaches and players discussing, as far as I can tell, basic analysis of all-22 clips from NFL games. He’s clearly been well-compensated over the years but like a lot of these guys who lucked into getting checks because they can wear a suit, he thought his “excellence” extended beyond that and thus he took over the conference head job. Now, running a conference comprised of disparate colleges and administrations is quite difficult, as we’ve seen over the years with how poorly some leagues (cough Big 12 and Pac-12) have handled tough spots, and in the brief time he’s been at the top we haven’t witnessed a ton of leadership.
One-Sentence* Summary:
So much pain. (RIP Tasha)
Win or lose, Iowa games are painful. Anyone who was surprised about how this game went has not been reading Iowatch. I understand that’s most of you…but, umm…shame on most of you. I informed you thusly. Kirk Ferentz’s trophy room is littered with corpses of OCs who thought to themselves “that #1 defense is a mirage; certainly that won’t happen against my team!” and ended up having their QBs throw the ball straight to a Hawkeye in coverage.
And I’m not saying that Kirk Ferentz is DEFINITELY hunting OCs like he’s General Zaroff in "The Most Dangerous Game." I’m just saying that he stalks the sideline muttering “life is for the strong”, and that his lake home recently added a suspiciously Walt Bell-shaped rug to the foyer.
When playing against Iowa, everyone becomes Iowa (complete with a case of the dropsies). The fact that this game was never even remotely in doubt means that, for the first time, someone out-Iowa’d Iowa.
Cornelius Johnson at the Battle of Chapultepec
In September of 1847 a war between the two largest armies in the Americas was drawing to its close. While the conflict between the Republic of Mexico and the United States of America was incredibly hard fought by both sides, the outcome of nearly every battle were equally as one sided. The unavoidable Mexican defeat was merely a long line in a series of humiliations of a people who had descended from the first conquerors of the New World. Once, the hooves of Spanish cavalry and the might of their heavily armed gallons had crippled empires and struck fear into their fellow Europeans but those days were gone forever. Since Spain's departure, the nation they left in their wake, despite having all the pomp and pretenses of a powerful army, had known nothing but defeat.
The United States was following the opposite path. Having thrown off their own colonial shackles only forty years before their Mexican neighbors, the United States had grown infinitely more powerful in the intervening years. If Mexico was in its inevitable descent into irrelevance, the writing was clearly on the wall that the United States was on its way towards domination.
December 4th, 2023 at 1:29 PM ^
During the OSU game I was watching on Youtube TV and had the UM radio feed synced up, there were multiple occasions after commercial breaks where my Youtube TV was well behind the radio feed....paranoid you are not sir
December 4th, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^
Inside Lucas Oil the screens showing the game internally (no broadcast) were over 1 minute ahead of the screens showing the actual Fox broadcast. This was most evident in the concourse by the Caesars lounge were the screens were side by side and you could see how many plays behind the Fox broadcast was.
December 4th, 2023 at 2:54 PM ^
Could be, there are commercials I see occasionally with the "More info" icon in the top right. I'm assuming that isn't native to broadcast TV.
I usually start the game an hour or so after kick, still take a few breaks here and there, and sync up at the end pretty close to the real game. Unlike Brian, I can apparently ignore my phone/Twitter for those few hours, so wouldn't notice.
December 4th, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^
Watched the game with my brother on YTTV. I checked some live betting on fanduel and saw FD had Michigan with the ball in the red zone, so I figured they overturned the call on the field. Yet at least two, maybe three more commercials went by before I actually it on TV.
Usually the apps are a little ahead of the broadcast but not *that* far ahead. It's like Fox and/or YTTV was using it as a teaser/cliffhanger to get in more ads
December 4th, 2023 at 4:50 PM ^
Are you talking about the Sainristil hit on the QB that got called a fumble? All of that happened during the commercial break. That wasn't a streaming issue, that's Fox not even showing us the result of a replay in an effort to squeeze more ads in. That's got little to do with how far behind YTTV may or may not be.
December 4th, 2023 at 6:51 PM ^
Genuine question: is that a somewhat new thing? I'm fairly young but I remember them pretty much always showing the replay for controversial calls up until just a couple of years ago. Now, unless it's the 4th quarter, it seems like we usually just come back to the result of the call being put into effect.
December 4th, 2023 at 4:47 PM ^
3-5 Minutes though is not normal. Brian's buffered while he was out of the room or he rewound and forgot to go back forward.
December 4th, 2023 at 5:36 PM ^
I have to mute notifications and turn my phone face down for every game of every team I care about. It's beyond irritating to hear a play or score update a good 2-3 minutes before my eyes see what happened.
December 4th, 2023 at 6:26 PM ^
I'm glad I'm not nuts either. YTTV was way behind and I synced with the radio broadcast. It cut and jumped ahead during the trophy presentation and I thought I missed Petitti give his speech...
December 4th, 2023 at 7:34 PM ^
To go even more paranoid, I noticed if you watch on YouTube TV in multiview, games will be behind by a few minutes so the commercials on different channels sync up so you can't "change the station" away from them.
December 5th, 2023 at 12:02 AM ^
Same here, also with YouTube TV. At one point, I got a notification on my Score App that we had scored a field goal, but on my TV screen, we hadn’t even lined up for the kick yet.
December 4th, 2023 at 1:30 PM ^
Semaj is the one who was prophesized by Norfleet, it all makes sense now.
December 4th, 2023 at 5:02 PM ^
Semaj is also being shortchanged in the KFaTAotW Standings because he previously had two HMs. OTOH, it does seem like he's somehow able to be in two places at once, so maybe the double-appearance is an homage.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:30 PM ^
Semaj Morgan has the charm reminiscent of a viral video of a child being interviewed by the local media
December 4th, 2023 at 1:35 PM ^
I think the second fumble was indeed a fumble. Even if the hand is coming forward, the ball needs to be released forward for it be an incomplete pass. It clearly wasn't, and it's a still a fumble if the hand pushes the ball forward after Sainristil knocks it loose.
The controversial part of the call was whether Michigan had a clear recovery since the ref blew their whistle.
December 4th, 2023 at 1:45 PM ^
But the "clear recovery" rule is specifically a thing because the refs are going to be blow the whistle in that circumstance and it is a method to award the ball to the team who clearly would have recovered it but for the whistle. That is the point of the rule.
But more broadly as to replay, absolutely the call of incomplete should have stood. The replay was inconclusive at worst, confirmation at best.
It is not going to happen, but I think they should scrap replay altogether in college football for a year or two and bring it back in its original form, i.e. guy CLEARLY steps out of bounds, irrefutable evidence, you reverse the call, but enough of this slowing things to Ultra-Rare Slo Mo and still getting reviews wrong. It is stupid and everybody hates it.
December 4th, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^
But the "clear recovery" rule is specifically a thing because the refs are going to be blow the whistle in that circumstance and it is a method to award the ball to the team who clearly would have recovered it but for the whistle. That is the point of the rule.
I don't think that's quite accurate. The clear recovery rule is not about awarding the ball to the team that "would have" recovered it, it's about awarding the ball to the defense only if the defense clearly did recover it. A whistle doesn't automatically "end the play" for the purpose of determining if there was a clear recovery, but if the offensive players stop trying to recover a loose ball because of a whistle ruling the play dead, that should preclude the refs from awarding the ball to the defense if a defender then casually picks up the ball. That is arguably what happened here: the ref blows the whistle and runs in to signal incomplete, and the two Iowa players near the ball stop trying to recover it while Josh Wallace just lets it roll to him.
I agree that the call on the field probably should have stood. But my point is that the call should have stood because of the lack of clear recovery, not because it was an incomplete pass. The ball merely moving forward doesn't make a fumble an incomplete pass -- the QB has to release the ball forward. That didn't happen here. Sainristil made direct contact with the ball before it was released, which knocked the ball loose, and the QB's hand pushed the ball forward.
December 4th, 2023 at 1:57 PM ^
After all the ifs and buts if it was our team we wouldve been livid. Play stands as called is exactly how it shouldve been done. This was the MSU call but without any real repercussions.
December 4th, 2023 at 2:16 PM ^
Yes, either I've always misunderstood the whole notion of "the hand coming forward" or this was pretty likely a fumble.
If your hand is moving incrementally upward, but is still waaaaaaay behind your head, that was not my understanding of a forward pass.
December 4th, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^
That's not the rule, though. If the hand is pushing the ball forward at all, it's considered a forward pass if/when the ball comes out.
December 4th, 2023 at 2:55 PM ^
Alright then. Now I know. Thanks.
December 4th, 2023 at 4:22 PM ^
One caveat here: it has to move forward while in control. If the ball's already loose before the forward motion but goes forward because it's still in contact with but not controlled by the hand, it's a fumble.
December 4th, 2023 at 7:02 PM ^
If we're getting very squinty, I think it's fair to say that the ball was rotating around its center more than it was coming forward in those two frames.
December 4th, 2023 at 3:00 PM ^
From the rules: "When a Team A player is holding the ball to pass it forward toward the neutral zone, any intentional forward movement of the passer’s hand with the ball firmly in their control starts the forward pass unless the player clearly starts to bring the ball back with firm control to the passer’s body. If a Team B player contacts the passer or ball after forward movement begins and the ball leaves the passer’s hand, a forward pass is ruled regardless of where the ball strikes the ground or a player."
December 4th, 2023 at 3:20 PM ^
+1 for so confidently getting the rule wrong.
December 4th, 2023 at 6:48 PM ^
I mean the ball landed like five yards in front of the QB, didn't it? And I never heard this "release forward" language. The arm was going forward, he got hit, and the ball came out forward. Idk, that's just incomplete.
December 5th, 2023 at 9:30 AM ^
Neither part was controversial, especially compared to the calls that often go against Michigan (see: Holding on TJ).
The "hand coming forward" is an asinine rule/interpretation because, as was mentioned, the ball was not released, ergo it was not a "pass."
December 4th, 2023 at 1:40 PM ^
This game plan will surely not work against Bama … JJ must run , Edwards must be utilized, Wilson must be targeted… as for the D probably load the box for Milroe, until he can prove he can make downfield throws … simple lol … Edwards is definitely an enigma, how the hell can you not utilize his speed in the open field !!’
December 4th, 2023 at 1:44 PM ^
Seems under Harbaugh we have a problem utilizing players with awesome talent--look at Nico, etc
December 4th, 2023 at 1:59 PM ^
What the fuck was he doing in that doink of his helmet. You are either an active blocker or active receiver. Looking like a peewee league receiver in his first play isnt an option. Like it was said in the post
"RUN THE GOD DAMN ANGLE CORRECLTY" over and over again. Its easy yards 3-4 times a game.
December 4th, 2023 at 2:16 PM ^
He's lost. But I don't think it is his fault. I am a fan of a lot of things this coaching staff does, but their use of Edwards is malpractice-y. Edward's speed should make his a focal point of the offense, not just a footnote. The issue is that they simply don't know how to use him. It was kind of the same thing with Chris Evans, though Edwards has a far higher ceiling than Evans. At this point, just split him out wide and run a go route and throw it. If you don't know what to do with him just arm punt it on 3rd down to him once in a while.
December 4th, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^
At this point I disagree. He's been here 3 years and he still doesn't look like he understands the game. All the talent in the world right there, but there is something missing with him. He was great when he was the man at the end of last year.
Maybe it changes next year if he comes back and he's the #1?
December 4th, 2023 at 4:51 PM ^
I agree. Dude is blazingly fast in a straight line, but I have yet to see him *make a play*. If he has a big play, it's because someone opened a hole so big no one could possible miss it. All his great plays last year were basically on the OL, not Edwards making a play out of nothing. I've seen him make bad cuts again and again, miss holes again and again. I forget which game it was in, but at one point he was following his blocks to the left while a hole the size of Texas stood to his right. After a beat he turned around and went that way for a big gain, but Blake Corum or even Kalel Mullings sees and hits that instantly. It's like he picks a direction at random to run and then just goes that way until he hits something or something hits him.
It seems like there are better ways to use him than what the coaches are doing, but since his RB decision-making seems so bad, I do wonder if the coaches have little confidence in his ability to run routes correctly.
December 4th, 2023 at 6:55 PM ^
I'm with you. Lots of potential and natural talent, but his IQ just isn't there. The other thing that I notice with him is how awful he is at breaking tackles. I go to U of M; I've seen Donovan Edwards in person. The man is legitimately one of the biggest dudes on the team and probably has the most muscle mass of anyone at a skill position. But holy shit, you lay a finger on him and he's going down without much of a fight.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:44 PM ^
The one time he made a play on his own was his TD against Purdue, which is one of the best runs I've ever seen from a Michigan player.
December 4th, 2023 at 6:39 PM ^
He shouldn’t be the #1 or #2 back. He should be an h-back / slot receiver like Deebo Samuel with the 49ers. Just watch the highlights from the 49ers vs Eagles game yesterday. This is the blueprint for using Edwards. He’d be a top 10-15 draft pick if Michigan made him Deebo Junior. He’ll end up being a 2nd to 4th rounder as a running back based on his pure raw talent, but teams won’t make him a first rounder unless he wants play a role like Deebo.
December 4th, 2023 at 6:50 PM ^
If he can run routes properly, idk he just looks like a fourth/fifth stringer out there the way he moves not exactly knowing where he's supposed to be.
December 5th, 2023 at 8:18 AM ^
Man you're really selling Deebo short there, UMVA. Deebo has been used extensively as a runner at times (much less so since acquiring CMC), and he is amazing at following blocks & picking the right crease to burst through with power. That is pretty much the antithesis of what Edwards does.
I believe you're onto something with the idea of using Don in much the way the Niners pass to Deebo though. Short slants he could add YAC to, swing passes off reverse action, etc. These plays as designed by Shanahan get defenders sliding the wrong way, and Deebo is among the best in the league at picking his way through traffic.
There's no reason not to try to get Edwards the ball on plays like this. The idea he'll ever be a successful lead back is over, in my mind.
December 4th, 2023 at 2:19 PM ^
He looked like literally had no idea what play is..what supposed to do or anything close to it..makes you wonder if that is why he is not being utilized how we fans all want..he maybe does not know plays/does not run right ones when called. How many times have we seen him hit the wrong hole, totally miss a block..something is off this year with Edwards
December 4th, 2023 at 3:30 PM ^
it won't be the same game plan, seeing as how we've got, you know, coaches and stuff.
December 4th, 2023 at 5:19 PM ^
While I have wondered the same thing about Edwards this year, looking at the numbers shows some interesting things:
Carries = 140 in 2022 vs. 109 carries in 2023 in one less game so far.
Yards = 991 last year vs. 382 this year
This means the yards per attempt dropped from 7.1 to 3.5. Ouch!
Edwards has more receptions this year through one less game. 30 vs. 18. Again, the difference shows up in yards. Last year he averaged 11.1/catch vs. 8.3 this year.
Total touches were 158 last year vs. 139 this year through one less game played. Pretty dang close.
The chances have been there. The delivery has not. The question is why?
I believe it is based on two things,:
1) I think the coaches changed their team strategy this year to have a better chance to win it all. I believe they purposely moved to a more efficient NFL style which includes rotating players more to keep them fresh as they go on long drives. There are many benefits to this approach and fits this team's strengths really well. Even if it doesn't put up amazing yardage stats, it does put up good scoring stats. This has been born out in Corum's amazing run to Michigan's TD rushing records and Michigan's overall consistency in scoring game to game.
2) Edwards is not a grind it out runner. He is a big play waiting to happen, but that requires many touches in a row. He simply does not fit the team's style this year. This year they keep rotating guys in/out to keep them fresh and stay on schedule. It's really hard to break a big one when you run 3-4 plays, go out, run a couple plays, go out, etc.
It's not his fault, and I applaud him keeping a good attitude through this. Should Michigan win it all, I have no doubt his contributions will be felt, and he will be very happy.
December 4th, 2023 at 7:09 PM ^
Or maybe:
3) He hasn't gotten 100% back to his pre-surgery self. I suspect this may be it. Maybe he'll get there by New Year's?
December 4th, 2023 at 7:40 PM ^
This game plan will surely not work against Bama
Why do people say stuff like this? Of course it won't. Which is why it will be a different game plan. Just like the game plan for every game is different. Because they play a different team every game. Seriously, why the hell would the game plan for Iowa be the same as the game plan for Alabama?
December 4th, 2023 at 10:22 PM ^
Thank you.
This staff and team are going to do what it takes to win the game right in front of them and they have the ability/talent/depth to have a multitude approaches to accomplish that
This was about beating Iowa. Thats it, it doesn't extend a broader narrative game theory wise other than that we have an excellent football team. We had a truly great (IMO) game plan against Bama under Harbaugh the last time we met, we didn't have a QB who could execute that plan, but that is no longer the case.
Also, JJ is clearly still not 100%, there's a reason Orji was in to run a play that JJ can easily run against OSU and again against Iowa, it's because they are shelving the JJ run stuff as much as possible right now. That (hopefully) won't be the case in Pasadena. Also yes I know, JJ had two uneccessary keeps/runs late in the game that I suspect were not called runs but rather reads (and one of them should've probably been a give).
December 5th, 2023 at 8:25 AM ^
Because Jim Harbaugh's time at Michigan has shown him to be remarkably stubborn, for years now.
What was the score vs tcu before JJ was unleashed as a runner? My hope, and I'm pretty sure what Brian is insinuating, is that we don't have to be 2 TDs behind before we deviate from the gameplan this time!
December 5th, 2023 at 9:52 AM ^
I will die believing that last year's semifinal was 100% on brand Michigan Arrogance. This staff has a tendency to overlook teams they don't respect (especially, but not limited to, Rutgers). I think the focus was on beating Georgia thinking that TCU would be a walkover. And considering it was a one score game when we played like absolute ass (other than the second halves of 2021 Rutgers/MSU the worst we've played in this stretch) and what happened the next week, it should have been.
December 5th, 2023 at 10:19 PM ^
Last year's semifinal is a win if the officials correctly call Roman Wilson in the Endzone so I'm not super worried about it.
December 4th, 2023 at 1:40 PM ^
Two things:
1) We didn't go for it on 4th and 1 because Nugent went down on the play before, right? I know he came back but I thought he was going to sit for a few plays.
2) My streaming service is routinely 30secs behind live action, but I noticed that--despite not pausing or touching anything--it drifted to a couple mins behind at one point. I also noticed it on the 2nd Sainristil fumble because Twitter lit up with tons of comments about 2-3 mins before my TV caught it. I just figured it was something announced on accident during one of the MANY MANY commercial breaks.
December 4th, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^
Same here. I tend to pause the games a lot for just a few seconds here and there just to get up and go to the kitchen, etc. and I kept thinking that I must've been gone a lot longer than I thought because of the same drift.
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