Evaluating Ryan Day as a coach
It's hard to evaluate Day because his win % is very good but his team does not have a good record vs top 5 opponents. I looked at his record to the prior 5 years at OSU & his record versus top 10 ranked teams using week 13 SP+ rankings.
TL:DR Ryan Day is a good coach, not a great coach and performs poorly versus top 5 teams
Ryan Day's 5 year record 53-7 88% win %
Urban Meyer 5 year record (2014-2018) 62- 7 90% win %
OSU played less games in 2020 due to covid so win % is probably a wash
Urban's OSU team won a national championship in 2014, Day made it the championship in 2020- but it was Covid year so this has a bit of an asterisk.
Day blew the game versus Georgia in 2022- ESPN had OSU with a 94.5% win probability with 9 minutes left, OSU was up 38-27 and an 84% win probability with 2 minutes left with OSU up 41-35.
Day has 5 wins in 5 years over top 10 teams by EOY SP+ ranking- this seems like underperformance.
Against top 5 teams he is 0-6 - This is not good Bob!
He has 1 loss to a not top 10 team (Oregon 2021 was #19 SP+)
Recruiting (247's ratings)- Day's average class rating is 4.4, OSU's 2 previous classes were both #2 so talent at OSU has declined slightly since Ryan Day took over.
Hiring & player buyin- he is well liked by the players at OSU. His assistant hiring is not great. He hired Urban Meyer's son-in-law as QB coach and he likely did this to thank Urban for his support and ensure ongoing support from Urban because Urban Meyer has a lot of influence at OSU. Most of his assistants grew up in the OSU program so he lacks people with outside experience.
November 29th, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
Day is a great recruiter and schemer. He's ostensibly bad with culture and in-game management.
November 29th, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
The basic talk track out of buckeye-land that I've been seeing is that he's a really good coach and recruiter, but is an "outsider" and doesn't understand the rivalry with Michigan, a la John Cooper, and turtles in the biggest moments.
November 29th, 2023 at 9:47 AM ^
he also can't beat the Ferentz line vs Michigan...that's not good.
November 29th, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^
Is he a great schemer? I feel like OSU has a competent spread passing offense, but I rarely see a play of theirs that is an obvious RPS win, to use MGoBlog terminology. It doesn't take an offensive genius to create a great offense out of one of the best rookie QBs in NFL history and four first-round WRs. And once their QB talent took a dip this year, the offense looked pretty ordinary against competent opponents (which were pretty much limited to ND, PSU, and Michigan).
November 29th, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^
I think he's the offensive version of Don Brown in terms of scheme.
Came in and made the OSU offense feel unstoppable. Alabama provided the blue print to stopping his offense in 2020. Always keep two safeties high, take away the deep pass and make them beat you in the short/intermediate game. Take away explosive plays, force them to march down the field and eat clock.
Since then, he's failed to adapt his offense effectively. And right now it feels like they are at where Michigan was at in 2017/18 when they were trying to transform their offense from power football to "speed in space". Only they are trying to be a power football team when in reality, Ryan Day is most comfortable with a finesse team.
November 29th, 2023 at 11:02 AM ^
That's a good comp, actually. His offense was designed to destroy a defense we no longer have, and one our current defense is designed to neutralize. It's also a less durable system that relies on getting elite WRs (check) and QB play (nope). It's also vulnerable to bad weather and elite pass rushes.
November 29th, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
Can we take a moment to appreciate the fact that our coach DID adapt to changing tides? Harbaugh changed everything about the staff/culture/system to elevate this program. He’s a legend for that
November 29th, 2023 at 3:26 PM ^
You know who else changed everything about the staff/culture/system to elevate this program?
John Beilein. And with his staff/culture/system he elevated the program to two final fours. This year it will be three final fours for Harbaugh.
November 29th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
Ohio State scored their touchdowns on Saturday with the exception of Henderson's run on pick plays and shallow crossers or clear-out routes. The first one, Stover blocked a trailing Michigan defender freeing Egbuka coming across from any defensive impediment except a too-late to the play zone defender. Ryan called a similar play to get Mazerati Marv free on a later TD.
Ryan used similar play calls against Penn State to free Harrison on his lone TD in that game.
November 29th, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
But scheme is temporary..he has a huge talent advantage, but where is the actual evidence he is good at any of those things? Ohio St recruits itself. He isn't elevating the program, he hasn't made a single home run hire, the talent development doesn't seem to be at an elite level.
Everyone is pointing to his record vs the conference but Rutgers, MSU, Indiana, Maryland account for almost 20 of those wins.
What's your best argument for Day is a good coach? What is the OSU offensive identity? Who on OSU's staff could be a head coach? Is it possible Kevin Wilson was the brains behind the operation.
November 29th, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
Personally, I liked his selection / hire of Knowles as their DC.
November 29th, 2023 at 11:09 AM ^
As a Michigan fan i liked it, as basically a Big 12 team, it's a sound hire. Always had a bit of a Don Brown feel to it. And next year without those LBs and those experienced DEs or Denzel burke...what will they look like?
November 29th, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^
I like that potential look (for the Buckeyes next year) even more.
I believe the Buckeyes ‘21 recruiting class - which was ranked second - only behind Bama, will have several players elect to enter the draft.
November 29th, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^
This is why I never thought the A&M discussion made any sense. It's hard to see how he wouldn't have the same problems there that he has had at OSU.
November 29th, 2023 at 8:36 PM ^
Day is a very good coach with a more specific version of the problem that Harbaugh had 3 years ago: He can’t beat Michigan.
On top of that, he coaches tight in The Gane because Michigan and his lunatic fan base is in his head. Instead of maximizing his strengths as an offensive play caller/schemer, he has capitulated to the criticism that his teams aren’t tough and has tried to scheme a solution that runs counter to the identity he built for the team over his years there.
Instead of speeding the tempo up and leaning into an aggressive air raid offense that would better utilize his talent he has tried to establish the run more which is a weakness of his offenses.
Even though this year’s game was close, the pace and style suited Michigan. The thing that should scare we Michigan fans is if he decides to cut out the noise and become a faster team that slings it around more and is more aggressive in specific scenarios where he has turtled in the last three years. Thankfully the noise in Columbus is putting pressure on him to run a more run oriented offense which he has yet to show he can coherently scheme.
November 29th, 2023 at 9:41 AM ^
Day inherited a 13-1 team and a loaded recruiting pipeline. Any coach in America would be able to pull off a good run after stepping into that kind of situation.
November 29th, 2023 at 9:43 AM ^
see also Larry Coker
November 29th, 2023 at 11:01 AM ^
Yes, Coker inherited a juggernaut, but things fell off after the first couple seasons. Lost 3 games in his 4th & 5th seasons, then lost 6 in year 6.
Next year is Day's year 6 and it's not a 3-loss program let alone going to be a 6-loss team.
November 29th, 2023 at 11:13 AM ^
This team was a borderline holding call on PSU and a 'ND using 11 players on a goal line stand' away from potentially being a 3 loss team this year. Ramzy early in the year tweeted out '3 loss team'. They played very well against Michigan and there is something to say about a team that can find a way to win. As a Michigan fan, it was good for them to win those games to ultimately boost the resume. But I really don't think they were a 'no questions asked' undefeated program going into The Game on Saturday...
Obviously getting better QB play next year is an absolute must for you all - would hate to see all that 5* WR talent go to waste...
November 29th, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^
OSU could be a 3-loss team in the expanded B1G....or if they had Michigan's schedule next year. Texas, USC, @Washington, Oregon (along with a game against Michigan).
November 29th, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
Larry Coker may have inherited the most talented college football team of all time. The 30 for 30 series interviewed Sean Taylor ( I believe) and Taylor said it was a plate run team, and Coker stayed out of the way.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^
Ohio is a 3rd base state. No in-state competitors (unlike Florida where UM had FSU, UF, and now UCF to help bring them down a notch). Ohio is also talent rich.
Day is an above average coach, and nothing more, of a below average institution. That's the extent of analysis needed here.
November 29th, 2023 at 9:43 AM ^
Slightly disagree- there are coaches who could blow it, for instance if your first name is Jimbo
November 29th, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
If you're a Jim or a Bo, you're good. If you're a Jimbo, fuggedaboudit.
November 29th, 2023 at 9:50 AM ^
A&M is not near the program that OSU is, and 8/9 games in the Big Ten each year are free wins
November 29th, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^
That's why 10-3 is the floor for Michigan and OSU. You basically won the games you should have. Anything worse is a bad year. Anything better is a pretty good year.
Edit: Maybe 10-2 is the floor. I want to give credit to Harbaugh's 10-3 years, but they were unsatisfying in the end.
November 29th, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
Jimbo didn't inherit a team like OSU. TAMU isn't in the same tier.
OP also underrates OSU recruiting a little bit. Overall ranking is less important than average player ranking. OSU is rarely outside the top three by that measure.
November 29th, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
Yeah, and it's not like the record has begun to decline. The difference between him and Jim at this point could have less to do with team-building and more to do with pre- and in-game management/planning. If they fire him, they're idiots, but I am good with it, because there just aren't (m)any coaches that can pull players and engineer an office like Meyer did. Meyer did it in two places, so there's no denying the achievement. And start-up vs. sunk costs. . .
Meanwhile, the game has moved on. The assumption that a late middle-aged Meyer could catch lightning in a bottle a third time, or adapt to the way Georgia and Michigan are skewing offenses. . . dubious. We're the ones riding the tiger at present, and setting up clear lines of succession starts to emerge as the real task.
November 29th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
factor in the weakened B1G as well. It's something we've benefitted from as well but honestly this is the weakest B1G I can remember in a long time.
November 29th, 2023 at 11:02 AM ^
Next year is so exciting to me. Not that the playoff run isn't great, but the 9 game exhibition season was ridiculous.
USC, Oregon and UW in addition to Texas next year is going to be some great football.
November 29th, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^
That's key. Michigan has returned to/gone beyond its historical level, but every other team that has any history of success in the league has taken a step back during his tenure.
-Penn State dropped from their Saquon Barkely late 2010s level where they approximated OSU's talent level, and Frames is a significantly worse game-day coach than Day.
-Wisconsin's taken a large step back from its consistent level from the 1990s to the 2010s.
-MSU's been on a steady downhill slide since their playoff year.
-Iowa's defense has remained dominant but its offenses used to range from very good to average in the 2000s and 2010s, and now are literally the worst in college football.
-Nebraska's stuck in a semi-perma crater.
-No other team has really consistently outperformed it's historical level on a multi-year basis.
What's the best non-PSU Big Ten team that Day has beaten in acquiring his whatever and 0 record? Probably 2021 MSU? And that team was uniquely poorly set up to compete against OSU, and had a subpar coach.
November 29th, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^
I can't even give an unbiased assessment based off of what it appears he did. He went to the absolute bowels of the coaching brotherhood to try and take out his rival and made out what's really not an advantage, made to be the worst thing ever. To hell with him! He did it like a sneaky little shit to boot.
November 29th, 2023 at 9:48 AM ^
All the talk about “good” coaches gets so convoluted with the quality of the program and players.
There are 50 coaches who could’ve been plugged into Day’s position at OSU at the time who would’ve done just as well as him. There’s nothing impressive about what he’s done.
In tennis, it’s like whomever Novak Djokovic hires as a coach is automatically assumed to be a good coach because Djokovic is the greatest of all time, wins, and makes the coach look good
November 29th, 2023 at 10:18 AM ^
Here I thought you were going to give us some nuggets about our investigative search, because username checks out.
November 29th, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
The 'best' coaches just happen to have, in general, the most talented players. I totally agree the idea that x coach is great and y couch sucks is pretty ridiculous.
Obviously there are coaches that do have more success than others, and some that are ‘better’ than others.
Examples:
Bill Belichick- 'greatest of all time.' All of a sudden once Brady is gone, he looks pretty average. Did he forget how to coach, did the game pass him by? Of course not. Give me a coach that is going to win more with Mac Jones at QB.
Mork- successful coach. Interesting that once talent pool lessened, so did his success.
Nearly all college coaches who have success in CFB that jump to NFL- do they just forget how to coach and all of a sudden suck?
The point is great coaches have great players. A lot of coaches could go to OSU and win. Ryan Day is not Urban Meyer, but he’s been very successful. He was a FG away from a National Championship. Had he won one does that all of a sudden make him, ‘an amazing coach?’
OSUs run of success against us was unprecedented in this rivalry. They’ve still won 15/19 games. I’m totally fine with Day sticking around, because it seems we’ve figured out how to beat him. It also coincides that this is the best offensive line/defensive line/QB combos we’ve had in 20+ years. Maybe he’s just getting beat by a better team.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^
He was a FG away from a National Championship.
We should not assume they would have beaten TCU.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
Day did decent to hire Knowles who has clearly improved their defense. I'm interested to see the offense. Day got to start with CJ Stroud and multiple first rounders. He still can't scheme a run game and now that the greatest OSU passing QB ever is gone, his offense doesn't look so hot. Is Day worth much without an all-world QB?
November 29th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
Thanks for posting this. The Buckeyes have recruited well; however, IMO - Team Talent is a more accurate representation of a team - as a contrast to individual class signing.
Just a suggestion - look at the 247 Team Talent Composite - and you’ll see just how loaded the Buckeyes have been for a decade. Only two teams have had a deeper / more talented roster - Bama and Georgia.
November 29th, 2023 at 9:50 AM ^
I think he's a very good coach and his teams have been excellent.
I think Harbaugh/Michigan is in his head right now. It happens. He's still a great coach, but he's got to figure out how to compete with Michigan. The media said he "coaches scared" against UM in a way he'd never do against Minnesota or Maryland.
But his record is amazing. I will always wonder about these guys, if they'd succeed elsewhere where the talent floor is a little lower.
November 29th, 2023 at 10:16 AM ^
That’s right. He’s actually 56-7 and has made the CFP three times. Last year, his team gave Georgia the toughest game they’ve had since they ascended to the top of the college football world. At this point, firing Day would be about as dumb as firing Harbaugh after 2020, which is what many here wanted.
November 29th, 2023 at 10:41 AM ^
My takeaway from that is just that Georgia took them lightly. I'm not sure why everyone assumes OSU got Georgia's A game.
November 29th, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^
I'll be honest.... I assumed they got Georgia's A game because if UGA was not going to play at or at least close to their absolute best in the CFP semifinal against an immensely talented team, they're either unbelievably confident or very very poorly coached.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
They're not poorly coached, but probably were overconfident. They saw Michigan (the team they destroyed a year earlier) pound OSU in Columbus, so why wouldn't they expect to do the same?
The alternative is to think that Michigan was much better defensively than Georgia, which - as much as I love our guys - is pretty doubtful.
November 29th, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^
This is an.....uhhhhhhh.....interesting take.
November 29th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
I think it's reasonable. We shouldn't trust the transient property too much, but look at what we did to OSU in Columbus, then look at what Georgia did to TCU in the championship. I don't think it's a reach to assume that Georgia might have had an off game against OSU in the semifinal.
You could say that we "matched up" with OSU better than Georgia did. I'd say that, given Georgia's talent base and coaching, that's unrealistic.
November 29th, 2023 at 9:50 AM ^
A good recruiter and tanks against top 5 teams.
So he's Frames Janklin 2.0?
November 29th, 2023 at 10:18 AM ^
Nick Saban and Kirby Smart might be the only coaches who have good records against top 5 teams.
November 29th, 2023 at 11:05 AM ^
Moore is the only coach to never lose a game to a top 5 opponent.
November 29th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
That’s probably not serious? Moore was a placeholder, not a coach who built a team and program.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:13 PM ^
I think this is a crucial point. At Ohio State's peak under Meyer, they would be closer to even against top 5 teams, but judging a team by how well they do against the very best teams is going to look worse than how they are overall for just about everyone. If Day's a step back from Ohio State's peak, it would still make sense that he struggles against top teams and does well against everyone else.
I think there's no doubt that he's a step back from their peak. If he stays at Ohio State, I think it will be interesting to see what happens during the next few years. It's certainly possible that recruiting stays very strong, and OSU stays at roughly their current level, though probably another step or two back. Day will almost certainly start winning some of their big games, but probably not as much as he should with his talent.
But I think what's more likely is that recruiting takes a modest step back as well. And when he's no longer coaching a team that miles more talented than his opponent, I think he's in trouble, and OSU starts dropping more games against #6-15 teams. Which hurts recruiting more, and so on. Ohio State won't give him that much time, but I could very much see him looking like David Shaw where he's mostly able to maintain success but the base it's built on is crumbling.