![](/sites/default/files/styles/850xn/public/2020-02/49559893981_260db16967_k.jpg.webp?itok=EJtxwuvj)
The Synthesizer
2/19/2020 – Michigan 60, Rutgers 52 – 17-9, 8-7 Big Ten
It was weird seeing Jalen Rose directly behind the Michigan bench last night. It was weirder when Eli Brooks hit a cold-blooded three after getting stuck with a late clock possession against a 6'7" guy. The camera cut to the bench, where Zavier Simpson and Rose were doing the same thing:
This is a synthesis of two different Michigan pasts, its present, and its future.
One of the two pasts is offscreen: it's Brooks canning the three. Brooks is the most Beilein kid on Michigan's current roster. He's utterly devoid of swag. He remembers things after you tell him. He plays relentless positional defense in the manner of a guy determined to overcome limitations. He shoots from distance; the rim is a rumor unless the opposition has gotten beaten by one of Michigan's sets.
He feels like a mid-major player who got bumped up by circumstance. Eli Brooks is Zack Novak and Stu Douglass and the progression of guys who are just making it work against all athletic odds. Maybe not the most common Beilein archetype, but the most Beilein archetype.
The other past is obvious, with apologies to Chris Hunter: Jalen freakin' Rose. Fab Five guy. Decade-long NBA career. Now paid to be interesting in public. The Fab Five was larger than life and Rose was always the guy with the mic. Your author had some problems with Rose in the Beilein era because he didn't seem to care about the program at all until it made the Final Four, and then that was just an opportunity to talk about how rad the Fab Five was.
To be clear, Rose has every reason to be bitter about how Michigan treated him and his classmates for close to 20 years. that bitterness could only increase as the idea that paying basketball players was immoral was repudiated by ever more important components of the college basketball ecosystem. First bloggers, then sportswriters, then coaches, and finally the NCAA itself. For Michigan's banners to stay down while Will Wade and Bill Self keep their jobs after being definitively proven as violators by the FBI (the FBI!)… well, if that was me I'd probably be pretty distant too.
But he's back, and he's hanging on Eli Brooks. Hanging.
-------------------------
The present is Zavier Simpson, who's only on the bench in the shot above because he's got four fouls and Michigan's buying him a couple minutes. Aside from this brief period he barely comes off the floor, leads Michigan in scoring, and is robbed of a double-digit assist game by Michigan's erratic three-point shooting.
Simpson is the exact opposite of a Beilein archetype, brought in as a no-shoot all-D point guard. He's beaten himself into a progressively better player over the course of four years. He's not a Beilein creation or a Juwan Howard creation. He is always becoming himself with no outside intervention except from maybe dad. He scores his 1,000th point in this game on a hook shot he and only he uses.
It didn't matter whether Beilein stayed or not. There was never going to be another Zavier Simpson. Juwan Howard won't recruit anyone like him; John Beilein wouldn't have. That's because there are no other players like Zavier Simpson. He is sui generis.
----------------------------------
To get to the future you gotta put it all together. Brooks is 0/5 in this game at the suddenly impregnable RAC. This space repeatedly wondered whether he had a mental block against high level teams, and thought David DeJulius should start eating to his minutes. Juwan Howard didn't, and Juwan Howard was right, and Eli Brooks just hit the iciest shot of his career.
Jalen Rose is there, a couple games after Dikembe Mutombo and Worldwide Wes were at Welsh-Ryan, of all places. Juwan Howard knows everyone and everyone likes him. Michigan's tendency towards factionalism could easily rise up in the aftermath of losing the best coach in program history, but it won't because everyone wants Juwan Howard to succeed from Lebron James on down.
Zavier Simpson is there. Juwan Howard has gotten out of Simpson's way and let him have his team.
It's really hard to get everyone pulling in one direction. Everyone reading this knows that in their bones. In Juwan Howard it seems like Michigan's found a guy who can pull up the guys who need it, leave the guys who don't alone, and gather everyone to him, past, present, and future.
[After THE JUMP: the new disaster artist]
[Wilcomes]
Simpson 1,000. Simpson's 1,000th point came on a late-clock hook shot, as fate ordained it must:
This @Xaviersimpson3 hook shot is insane.
— Michigan On BTN (@MichiganOnBTN) February 20, 2020
His 1,000th career point is worth style points. @umichbball x #GoBlue pic.twitter.com/QKL32xBuIy
The other candidate was hitting a three after the opposition let him take a warmup jumper, but Steve Pikiell is a better coach than Tom Izzo so he stopped doing that after Simpson hit his first couple.
[Wilcomes]
The Castleton rescue. After five minutes of Adrien Nunez doing the usual in the first half, Michigan finally tried someone-anyone else when Johns picked up a quick third a minute into the second. The imperfect solution was to play Castleton at the 4; this worked out far better than the alternative would have.
Castleton wasn't particularly involved in his first couple minutes on the floor as Michigan played zone and he looked a little lost—Simpson had to wave him through on his first offensive possession. Then he took a perimeter pass from Simpson and dove to the basket with one dribble for an and-one. Hello.
Then: Michigan switched back to man to man and Rutgers took it at him a few times, first getting that off-balance cumong-man shot from Mulcahey that Castleton did everything right on. He got switched on Miles Johnson as Teske moved out to cover a guy at the free throw line in zone; he was able to hold his ground enough to force a looping pass that allowed Teske to recover for a block. After Davis came in Castleton had a block on Young and altered another of his shots into a miss. Yeboah drove him and then fell over after Castleton stuck with him. Somewhere in there Castleton got an OREB over Jacob Young on a switch, got fouled on the putback, and converted both ends of a one and one.
I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that Michigan doesn't win this game if Castleton doesn't play those ten minutes. Michigan was down five when he came on and up four when he left; they were –5 in five minutes with Nunez on the floor in the first half. If Michigan needs a fourth guy at the 3/4 at some point in the future it's got to be him.
The new Isaiah Washington. We lost the Big Ten's most beautiful disaster this offseason when Minnesota guard/sabotage artist Isaiah Washington transferred to Iona*. Well, folks, there is another. You may remember a moment where the referee had to give Jacob Young and Zavier Simpson a talking-to for excessive jawing. You do not remember Jacob Young making a half-court bucket because he didn't.
Young had another perimeter pick-six (after three in MSG) and finished off the fast break after DDJ got blocked into the Earth's center. He was 0/8 from the floor otherwise and missed both his free throws. This is par for the course for Young, who has a magical statistical combination:
- he's playing almost 20 minutes a game
- he's Rutgers' highest usage player by a mile (27%; nobody else is > 20%)
- he has the worst ORTG on the team(80) by 11 points(!!!)
This dude is shooting 44/21 with a TO rate of 25. Ace punched some numbers into Torvik and Young has the worst ORTG for a 25%+ usage upperclassman in the TRank era, which goes back to 2008. And he runs his mouth! I love him.
Good news for fans of the Beastie Boys dressed up like 1970s cops: the Big Ten gets another go-round. Young is a junior.
*[Washington was granted immediate eligibility, presumably on grounds that he is too entertaining to put on the bench. He's shooting 43/36 as Iona's third banana and has an ORTG over 100. All things end, jelly fam.]
this is good, keep doing this [Wilcomes]
David, we have to talk. This is the second game David DeJulius has slapped the floor. IIRC this time it resulted in Rutgers free throws. Someone show him the Maryland-MSU game and tell him to let East Lansing have that.
Nice recovery, though. No one would have been surprised if DeJulius had simply faded into the court after this:
One of the more inconsiderate things I’ve ever seen on a basketball court pic.twitter.com/IWaoEq0A11
— Farmer Jones (@thefarmerjones) February 20, 2020
I don't think I've seen a stepback obliterated like that before. But DDJ managed to recover for 10 points on 10 shot equivalents in a game where 1 PPP was a winning number; he did join the "picked by Jacob Young" club on an early pick-six.
Teske back? Myles Johnson isn't exactly Luka Garza but he is shooting 53% from the floor on decent usage in Big Ten play. Teske shut him off. Johnson was 0/3 and all three of his shots might have been blocked by Teske. Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis had as many points (4) in the first three minutes of the Indiana-Minnesota game as he had against Michigan, when he was 2/3 from the floor. IIRC not much of De'ron Davis's game came against Teske.
Tillman did okay personally from two (6/10) but MSU collectively shot 38% from two; OSU shot 44% and Wesson's twos were mostly putbacks or fadeaway jumpers.
Teske's been very rough offensively for the last month but as Michigan's defense surges he seems to be a major part of that. A return game against Trevion Williams up next will be a good measuring stick.
[Wilcomes]
Shot deficit overcome: the story of beating Rutgers. Michigan did a much better job on the offensive boards despite giving up 14. This was 32% of Rutgers misses, about on their baseline this year. And given the nature of Rutgers shots they're always going to have an OREB advantage because their eventual destinations are far less predictable. When you fling a three off the side of the backboard the resulting rebound is a 50/50 proposition.
The larger problem was getting just four offensive rebounds in 27 opportunities. Brandon Johns foul trouble had a lot to do with that. Castleton contributed one in his 10 minutes; Franz got two; Austin Davis got one.
Let's punch some outcomes into Torvik. Bart Torvik Dot Com has a "teamcast" page where you can punch future results into Torvik's projections and see where your team lands in different scenarios. Michigan is currently projected as a 5-seed in the median outcome. Let's explore ranges:
- Worst Case Scenario (lose out, first round tourney loss to OSU): 9-seed, but Torvik does assert there's an 18% chance Michigan would miss the tourney.
- Reasonable Worst Case Scenario (as above except Michigan wins at home against Nebraska): 7-seed, 98% chance of selection.
This should be enough to move Michigan into "lock" range in bracketology posts. Alert your local Eamonn Brennans and John Gasaways.
- Average-ish (win both home games and @ Purdue, 1-1 in tourney, W vs OSU, L vs Maryland): 4 seed(!)
- Pretty good: (only regular season loss @ Maryland, 2-1 in tourney with extra game a L against Wisconsin): 2-seed(!!!)
- Win all the games: uh also a two seed in the same spot.
These seem optimistic to me but in these latter scenarios Michigan is somewhere between 13-8 and and 11-9 in Q1 games with a fair few 1A wins.
The NET problem. I don't get what NET's deal is about Michigan and a few other Big Ten teams. Some blind resumes:
Record | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Avg NET W | Avg NET L | WAB | Kenpom SOS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
17-9 | 6-8 | 4-1 | 2-0 | 5-0 | 122 | 25 | 21 | 3 |
20-6 | 7-4 | 5-2 | 3-0 | 5-0 | 124 | 42 | 11 | 25 |
17-9 | 5-8 | 5-1 | 2-0 | 5-0 | 121 | 31 | 25 | 11 |
Not a whole lot to choose from between the 17-9 teams. The 20-6 team had a bit of an easier scheduled but WAB accounts for that when it places them 11th; they have the most Q1 wins despite fewer opportunities. Seems like it should be
- 20-6
- some gap
- 17-9 A (SOS #3)
- 17-9 B (SOS #11)
Instead it's:
- #15 Michigan State (17-9B)
- gap
- #24 Michigan (17-9A)
- #25 Penn State (20-6)
What's the problem? Probably the NCAA still using garbage strength of schedule measures that have MSU in the 40s, Michigan in the 50s, and Penn State in the 130s.
February 20th, 2020 at 2:49 PM ^
Steve Pikiell is a better coach than Tom Izzo
I read this in the Fuego Box voice
February 20th, 2020 at 3:19 PM ^
In terms of getting the best out of the talent they have, I don't think it's that much of a hot take
February 20th, 2020 at 3:03 PM ^
crap, you said the word "banners."
February 20th, 2020 at 3:07 PM ^
For some reason the Selection Committee uses the RPI rankings for their Strength of Schedule metric. It makes absolutely no sense.
February 20th, 2020 at 3:08 PM ^
I don't want DDJ to keep slapping the floor. I like making fun of Michigan State for slapping the floor and it makes it harder when he is doing it.
February 20th, 2020 at 6:58 PM ^
How awesome would it be if he did the Macarena instead???
February 20th, 2020 at 3:17 PM ^
"It's really hard to get everyone pulling in one direction. Everyone reading this knows that in their bones. In Juwan Howard it seems like Michigan's found a guy who can pull up the guys who need it, leave the guys who don't alone, and gather everyone to him, past, present, and future."
You are such a good writer when you're not reading Poe and drinking absinthe by the fire while contemplating The Abyss that is your football fandom.
February 20th, 2020 at 4:15 PM ^
That would require the football team to actually win games they're not favored in or maybe even go 1-1 to finish the year.
February 20th, 2020 at 3:17 PM ^
"Alert your local Eamonn Brennans and John Gasaways".
I feel like this should be Eamonns Brennan and Johns Gasaway, a la attorneys general.
February 20th, 2020 at 4:43 PM ^
Suddenly Johns Hopkins makes sense to me!
February 21st, 2020 at 8:22 PM ^
William Safire is smiling in his grave.
February 20th, 2020 at 3:59 PM ^
In the first clip of Simpson hitting the hook shot, at about the :20 mark, if you look closely you'll see what looks like a Rutger fan in the front row tipping his cap to Simpson as he back-pedals down the floor. What else can you do? Touche.
February 20th, 2020 at 4:09 PM ^
The RAC has suddenly become one hell of a venue to play in. The place was loud af. Warde needs to take notes for Crisler.
February 20th, 2020 at 6:41 PM ^
I think part of this is Rutgers is finally good at something. You see it in the NFL with the teams that have been historically bad having the best/most loyal fanbases with the loudest stadiums. The Seahawks are a great example. Once they got good it was all about the 12th man.
February 20th, 2020 at 4:18 PM ^
Great catch - that is funny to watch.
February 20th, 2020 at 5:18 PM ^
As someone that often wears a ball cap to sporting events, I'm going with "snatching off and replacing cap in disbelief/bemusement."
Either way, solid f'ing catch... Love stuff like that!
February 20th, 2020 at 4:02 PM ^
Juwan the synthesizer and Beilein = Dantonio according to this. Worst sports take of the year?
February 20th, 2020 at 4:19 PM ^
That is a huge compliment to Dantonio and huge insult to Beilein.
February 20th, 2020 at 4:27 PM ^
thank god it's behind a paywall. otherwise i might have to read it and drive to the office of someone named "pat caputo" and kick him in the nuts.
i might do it anyway, just based on the headline.
February 20th, 2020 at 5:21 PM ^
He's a slob that's been on the Detroit sports radio scene forever with garbage time slots. It's hilarious that his trash articles are paywall'd.
Another recent gem was that Andy Reid finally won a super bowl because he stopped being an old school coach.
February 20th, 2020 at 5:25 PM ^
Pat Caputo. Sigh...
February 20th, 2020 at 4:34 PM ^
Love Simpson’s facial expression in the DDJ pic.
February 20th, 2020 at 5:29 PM ^
Yeah he was in a mood last night.
February 20th, 2020 at 4:47 PM ^
Really well written intro. It's so nice when our Michigan teams can inspire poetry like this.
And this might be a pretty obscure reference, but...
Jacob Young is Philip Seymour Hoffman in Along Came Polly. Rain drops!
February 20th, 2020 at 5:23 PM ^
Some reactions from me....
- I liked the writing in this one. Sometimes it is a little too over-the-top on the intros, this one was good. Tip of the cap.
- I liked the zone defense with Castleton and Wagner on the wings - just a host of long arms out there. Sort of drooling about next year when they could pull it out with the likes of Castleton, Todd, Wagner, Livers, etc.
- I'd like to see Castleton work on his mid-range and outside game. I think he has a little of the same tendency of Austin Davis where the ball in the post is a black hole - never getting passed out. With Davis he's learned enough crafty YMCA moves to score. Castleton gets stuck and turns the ball over or has a bad shot. The guy is shooting like 82% from the FT line and clearly has a good touch - let's build that into the offense!
- At some point we need a post talking more about Simpson's legacy, the four guys he joined in the 1000/500 club, and maybe how he stacks up in the B10 legacy for PGs. Looks like he has an outside shot at finishing 4th all time in B10 assists depending on how many games and how many 3s go down from his teammates.
February 20th, 2020 at 5:40 PM ^
Zavier. Sweet sui generis.
February 20th, 2020 at 5:54 PM ^
If Michigan gets a 6/7/8 seed in the NCAA, I wouldn't want to be the team that draws them in the second round!!
February 20th, 2020 at 6:28 PM ^
Agreed but I'd also say, getting us off the 7/10 - 8/9 line is pretty critical to making a run this year. The drop off from the 1-2 seed to the 3-4 seed is pretty steep this year. We really want to try and avoid that if at all possible. Win game at Purdue this weekend to help with that.
February 20th, 2020 at 7:46 PM ^
I think this is the/a year where the dropff doesn't exist because no 1-seed is truly that scary. Duke is good, as is Baylor, as is SDSU probably. But I'm not sure I'd rather face a 3-seed Creighton or Maryland or a 4-seed Seton Hall or Auburn...over the 1s and 2s.
February 21st, 2020 at 10:36 AM ^
Hard disagree. Auburn, Creighton, and Seton Hall are a clear step below a Duke or Dayton.
Kansas is scary good. And Baylor beat them on the road.
February 20th, 2020 at 5:56 PM ^
Nunez had a tipout to someone for an extra OReb we should have.
February 20th, 2020 at 6:47 PM ^
EDIT: You're correct about the NCAA still using an insane SoS metric (probably just RPI). But that doesn't explain their position relative to M and MSU. That's the reason PSU is mid-20s instead of in the teens compared to kenpom.
But the reason PSU is only one spot ahead of Michigan and behind MSU is that the NET is mostly a quality metric, NOT a resume metric. PSU is behind both Michigan and MSU in margin of victory/efficiency rankings like kenpom and Torvik and that's why they're behind them in NET. And that's what's right about NET.
The margin of victory and efficiency components of NET essentially make it 2/3 of the way to the "quality" rankings like kenpom and then there is still a component of it that says W's and L's matter. I think it's a great ranking for the balance it has achieved between quality and resume.
For instance, Michigan is 49th in RPI right now. 49th!! Even as a sanity check, the Colley Matrix, which is an actual mathematically sound ranking of pure resume based only on Ws and Ls, has Michigan as 43rd so it's not just that RPI is terrible. There's only so much you can glean from Ws and Ls.
But Michigan is 12th in kenpom. That's a HUGE discrepancy. 49 vs 12!! So it's nice to see that Michigan is most of the way to the kenpom ranking at 25th in NET.
You can do this with almost any team and find they're about 2/3s of the way from their RPI ranking to kenpom (PSU is 43rd in RPI, 16th in kenpom and 24th in NET). It feels like whomever was in charge tinkered with the formula to get that result and I think it's great. Shocker that they did something right.
If we were still using RPI, we would be fretting mightily about being on the bubble. With NET, we're basically a lock.
Now if only they'd do away with / ignore the awful SoS number. I like to think (hope) they focus more on quadrants than a singular SoS number.
February 20th, 2020 at 10:17 PM ^
Calling Brooks a mid major is ok as long as you call Villanova a mid major too. Now I know why so many diss Eli here...starts atop....
And to say Simpson isn't the Beilein archetype..maybe he is and the rest were the types he had to settle for...
February 21st, 2020 at 10:16 AM ^
The crowd reactions to the 1000th point hook shot are great. One rutgers fan in a floor seat basically tipped his cap
Comments