Uh, brace yourselves? The situation is just a tad different from the last time I did this in early December, when Ohio State was on top of the college basketball world and Purdue ranked 71 spots ahead of Rutgers on KenPom.

Current Standings (As of Feb. 3)

	B1G Record	Overall Record	B1G Efficiency Margin	Record vs. Q1	KenPom	Torvik	NET
Michigan State	8-3	16-6	+12.9	4-5	9	8	10
Illinois	8-3	16-6	+5.9	4-4	24	22	30
Maryland	7-3	17-4	+4.8	5-4	10	19	11
Iowa	7-4	16-6	+5.9	7-4	13	15	21
Rutgers	7-4	16-6	+4.9	2-5	29	13	28
Penn State	6-4	16-5	+0.3	5-3	16	14	24
Wisconsin	6-5	13-9	+0.7	6-7	30	29	32
Purdue	5-6	12-10	-1.0	2-8	28	21	39
Minnesota	5-6	11-10	-5.0	3-8	38	38	44
Indiana	5-6	15-7	-4.9	3-6	41	47	52
Ohio State	4-6	14-7	+1.1	3-5	12	12	20
Michigan	4-6	13-8	-2.5	4-8	25	25	31
Nebraska	2-9	7-15	-8.7	1-7	136	128	170
Northwestern	1-10	6-15	-13.9	0-10	120	96	149

Michigan State being tied atop the standings is unsurprising; being tied with Illinois, on the other hand, was less anticipated.

Stock Up

As we're all too aware, Ayo Dosunmu has been great. [Campredon]

Illinois/Ayo Dosunmu. You probably don't need to be told this given recent events. Since the new year, they've been the #11 team in the country according to Bart Torvik's rankings, and they've done it on the strength of their stifling defense. That's not what anybody expected after watching the Illini last year, but Brad Underwood completely overhauled his defensive scheme to remarkable effect. They'd won seven straight—including road upsets of Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan—before dropping an intense game at Iowa yesterday. Their only Big Ten losses are on the road to Michigan State, Iowa, and Maryland, the three other teams most likely to win or share the regular season title.

As we saw in the game at Crisler, when Illinois has needed a bucket, they've put the ball in the hands of Ayo Dosunmu. He's been on a tear over the last eight games, averaging 17.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game while shooting 54/42/85 (2P%/3P%/FT%) and keeping his turnovers in check; over that stretch he has a 118 ORating on 25% usage. Dosumnu is starting to look like the player some thought was ticketed for the lottery when he arrived in Champaign. He's no longer mostly a transition threat, and while Illinois still needs more shooting, they're arguably the most complete team in the conference anyway. As Brian mentioned on the podcast, the pieces of this team fit together very well.

[Hit THE JUMP for Garza the POTY, Wisconsin's wild ride, OSU's fall back to earth, and more.]

Iowa/Luka Garza. The winning side of Sunday's barnburner, Iowa is still relying heavily on having great offense overcome mediocre defense. This offense is ridiculous enough to make it work; the gap between their conference-best offensive efficiency (110.6) and #2 Ohio State is 5.7 points per 100 possessions, which is precisely the gap between OSU and #10 Minnesota. Even though they have the Big Ten's 11th-ranked defense, they're tied with Illinois for the #2 efficiency margin behind MSU.

This is in large part because Luke Garza is freakin' unstoppable. Here's a look at conference stats of Big Ten players who are 6'8" or taller (I would've made the height cutoff higher but it would've chopped a few legit centers) and use at least 18% of possessions, via Torvik (click for bigger/interactive):

Garza takes on more usage than any big in the conference, plays more minutes than the majority of the players on that chart, and has an offensive efficiency beaten only by Jalen "Sticks" Smith, who's great—more on that in a bit—but doesn't take on or create nearly as much offense.

Garza has 20+ points in his last seven games. The only game this season in which he didn't score double digits was a foul-plagued nine-point, 25-minute effort against #4 San Diego State. He's been the KenPom MVP in 14 of 22 games, most in the country. He ranks first in the conference in usage rate, shot rate (37%[!]), and fouls drawn per 40 minutes; he's top ten in ORating, eFG%, true shooting percentage, offensive rebound rate, defensive rebound rate, turnover rate, block rate, and free throw rate. After draining a career-high four three-pointers against the Illini, he's up to 38% from beyond the arc this season. He leads the KenPom player of the year standings. He's in the national player of the year conversation. He's very good, is what I'm saying here.

Rutgers. While Rutgers didn't stick after the Michigan loss, they were briefly ranked for the first time since The Clash released London Calling. We've spent plenty of time on Steve Pikiell's squad this week what with Saturday's game, but it's worth reiterating: holy shit. They're the #15 team in the country, and #6 on defense, since the calendar turned to 2020.

Jalen Smith. From the Garza chart, you can see that Sticks is playing with ridiculous efficiency. The Maryland big man is ninth in the KPOY standings; he's edged ahead of Daniel Oturu as the conference's second-best player this season. He's been great over his last five games, averaging 22 points and 11 boards with 69/48/82 shooting splits, good for a bonkers 144 ORating on 24% usage. To use Torvik's all-in-one stat, Smith has been worth three points over a replacement-value player more than any other Big Ten player on a per game basis over that span, not even Garza.

Stock Confusing

Bo Ryan disciple might be a jerk, news at 11 [Patrick Barron]

Wisconsin. To the good: they were 4-4 overall and 60th on KenPom the last time I did this; now they've clawed to 30th on KP and above .500 in conference play after holding home court against MSU despite being shorthanded. They've managed two conference road wins against non-dregs, no small feat in the Big Ten. Their record is no fluke, either, as they're on the positive side of the ledger in efficiency margin. Since becoming eligible after his mid-year transfer from Ohio State, Micah Potter has provided them with a second quality big man.

You can sense the "but" that's about to arrive. BUT! Their second-leading scorer, sophomore wing Kobe King, suddenly transferred last week, releasing a statement saying the program wasn't a fit for him as a "player or a person." The immediate problem, even after upsetting the Spartans without King (or suspended dick-puncher Brad Davison), is that Wisconsin's offense has been awful sans King—even in the MSU win, the Badgers scored only 0.94 points per possession. That efficiency margin may not stay positive for long.

There's also a longer-term problem: it seems quite possible that good players, or at least good perimeter players, don't want to play for Wisconsin. King mentioned how the players are talked to and treated by the staff, adding that he wasn't the only one frustrated with the program. A cryptic tweet from former Badgers guard Tai Strickland, now at Temple, added fuel to that fire. Meanwhile, this discussion between former Wisconsin guard Zak Showalter and current Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro illuminated a different problem:

Showalter was a 2012 in-state three-star who went straight into finance after college. Herro was a top-40 2018 guard from Wisconsin who went one-and-done at Kentucky, got drafted in the lottery, and now averages double-figures as a rookie for a playoff team. In related news, there are only four active NBA players who went to Wisconsin, and they were all drafted in 2015 or prior, before Gard took over the program. One of the four is Devin Harris, who was initially recruited to play under Dick Bennett.

Wisconsin's recruiting under Gard has been much more in the future financial analyst range than future lottery pick range; that looks unlikely to change unless Gard overhauls the program, which also looks unlikely. The program's response to King's departure would not give me faith as a Badgers fan.

Stock Down

there's a lot up in the air for these two squads. [Campredon]

Ohio State/Kaleb Wesson. The Buckeyes have pulled out of a slide with wins over Northwestern and Indiana, but prior to that they'd lost six of seven, and they face one of the more difficult schedules to finish conference play. Meanwhile, they won't have talented freshman guard DJ Carton for an undetermined period of time while he steps away from the program to attend to his mental health.

While Kaleb Wesson began the year as one of the stories of the season, his production has tapered. Dropping a bunch of weight has helped his defense and his outside shot; it also appears to have hurt his post offense, as his two-point percentage is a career-low 47%, and that drops to 44% against top-50 teams. Since December, in fact, he's had a hard time consistently being a clear help to his team—he's had seven games with a positive box plus-minus and seven with a negative BPM in that span.

Purdue. The Boilermakers have been downright bad on offense, scoring only 0.96 PPP in Big Ten play; if not for league-best offensive rebounding they'd be abject. The team doesn't fit together well; Matt Painter has started third big Evan Boudreaux over Matt Haarms because Trevion Williams is scoring too much to keep off the court but he's also not mobile enough to defend power forwards. It's trouble when your team's two best players are only sharing the court for a couple minutes a game.

Also trouble: the schedule. Purdue has already played its three games against the NU duo (and dropped one in Lincoln); their highest projected win percentage over their closing nine games is 67%, according to KenPom. Indiana and Minnesota look like more likely candidates to drop out of the NCAA tournament field but the Boilers aren't far behind.

Indiana. I could almost copy and paste that last paragraph; the Hoosiers close with nine games that all have win probabilities between 31% and 61%. At least they went 3-0 against the NUs, so that won't haunt them like it would Purdue if they're left out on Selection Sunday.

Guard play may be what dooms the Hoosiers. They're dead last in the Big Ten in turnover rate; starting point guard Rob Phinisee turns it over on 26% of his possessions. They're also ninth in assist rate, tenth in three-point shooting, and tenth in free-throw shooting. On the other end, they're relying on Joey Brunk to play a lot of center, and if you're read this blog's basketball coverage you know that means the interior defense isn't stopping much once the guards get beat.

Northwestern/Chris Collins. Poor Chris Collins, who—if you haven't heard—has a very young roster. This inexperience, as he's sure to tell the reporters after another loss, is why the Wildcats are 1-10 in the Big Ten with their only win at home over the other NU. Being saddled with such a green group, he'll yell at you while peering over the fence as you take out the trash, is why his team can't crack the top 100 in either offensive or defensive efficiency. Can someone please help this man?

A Super Bowl commercial for Northwestern Men's Basketball: pic.twitter.com/yxKizGDVPZ

— Kevin Sweeney (@CBB_Central) February 3, 2020

What bitter, wretched soul would leave Chris Collins with such a roster? Chris Collins, obviously. This jagoff is in his seventh season at Northwestern; he can't build a roster because he's a certified asshat I'm surprised anyone signs up to play for voluntarily; he's bad at identifying, recruiting, and developing players; he might be straight-up awful at actually coaching the games; and he complains as if this is anyone's fault but his!

No wonder Northwestern fans, or at least the ones who remain, want to do things to Collins that you'd only see on Fargo.

Michigan. Sorry. Livers getting injured, then injured again, was among the worst-case scenarios for this team. So was missing every jump shot for a month. The Wolverines are projected rather safely into the tourney field—Torvik gives them an 82% chance to make it—but that doesn't take into account that Livers could still sit for a while, which would seriously hurt the postseason outlook. Four of the team's seven worst performances by game score have come in the last eight games.

I still think they make it; there's definitely an "if Livers returns within a week or two" attached now.

New Tiers: Come See How Wrong I've Been!

This is how I had the Big Ten tiered in the preseason:

Tier I: Michigan State
Tier II: Maryland, Ohio State
Tier III: Purdue, Michigan
Tier IV: Illinois, Wisconsin
Tier V: Penn State, Iowa
Tier VI: Indiana, Minnesota, Rutgers
Tier VII: Nebraska, Northwestern

This is where I had them on December 5th. I'm feel like i should point out that I'm reprinting this willingly:

Tier I: Ohio State, Michigan State, Maryland, Michigan
Tier II: Purdue
Tier III: Penn State, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana
Tier IV: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Rutgers
Tier V: Northwestern, Nebraska

Let's take another stab at it, I can't get much more wrong, probably:

Tier I: Michigan State
Tier II: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Rutgers
Tier III: Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue
Tier IV: Michigan*, Indiana, Minnesota
Tier V: Nebraska, Northwestern

There's not much that separates Tier I from Tier II or Tier III from Tier IV. I have MSU out in front because they have a significant gap in efficiency margin on the rest of the conference; at some point I suspect that will be reflected in the results, even if only by them pulling ahead of the field by a game.

*would move up a tier if Livers comes back this week