luka garza

While Michigan's 2021-22 roster is mostly set, the same can't be said for much of the Big Ten—or, really, most programs in the country between a packed transfer portal, the pandemic year option for seniors to return without counting against the scholarship cap, and up-in-the-air NBA Draft decisions.

There's been a lot of movement over the last few days, including this morning's announcement that Northwestern shooter Miller Kopp is transferring within the conference to Indiana. This week, I'll be going over where each Big Ten program's roster stands in alphabetical order, and I'll rank each team's current outlook at the end. Here are some important dates to keep in mind as players make decisions about their future:

• May 30: Last day to apply for NBA Draft as an early entry
• June 21-27: NBA Draft Combine
• July 19: Last day for early entry to withdraw from NBA Draft

I made sure to note which players intend to sign with an agent, making them ineligible to withdraw, and which have left the door open to come back to school. I've also noted which players are in the transfer portal—which, as Indiana has displayed, doesn't prevent a return—and which have chosen another school. Returning seniors able to use the COVID waiver for an extra year are referred to as "super seniors."

Illinois

Key departures: G Ayo Dosunmu (draft w/ agent), F Giorgi Bezhanishvili (draft or overseas), W Adam Miller (transfer)
Key additions/super seniors: G Trent Frazier (super senior), C Omar Payne (Florida transfer), G Alfonso Plummer (Utah transfer)
Up in the air: C Kofi Cockburn (draft w/o agent), W Da'Monte Williams (possible super senior)

The Illini are going to look very different next season. Ayo Dosunmu is hiring an agent for the draft and won't be back. Kofi Cockburn also isn't expected to return after declaring over the weekend—it's rare for a player to return when they test the draft waters a second time, which is the case with Cockburn. Giorgi Bezhanishvili is going to the professional ranks too, though his role diminished in conjunction with Cockburn's emergence.

In a surprise move, former top-50 recruit Adam Miller entered the transfer portal despite starting all 31 games as a freshman. He hasn't said much since entering the portal and has been connected with Arizona, DePaul, Kentucky, and Michigan, though that seems largely based on his recruitment out of high school. He showed promise as a spot-up shooter and defender.

Brad Underwood added another former top-50 recruit in Florida transfer Omar Payne, who's mostly come off the bench in his first two seasons and was passed by Michigan transfer Colin Castleton in 2020-21. Payne blocks a lot of shots but is still quite raw; not that this is a fair comparison, but he won't come close to replicating Cockburn's production. (He may, however, try to take someone's head off.) Illinois needs big leaps from sophomores Coleman Hawkins and Jacob Grandison to have an above-average frontcourt as things stand; they're a strong candidate to hit the transfer portal for another big.

Getting Trent Frazier back for a fifth year helped shore up a backcourt that'll dearly miss Dosunmu, as did this weekend's addition of Utah grad transfer Alfonso Plummer, a 6'1 guard who's a career 40% three-point shooter on high volume and a teammate of Illini guard Andre Curbelo on the Puerto Rico national team. That helps offset the loss of Miller on offense and then some, though the undersized Plummer is unlikely to match him as a defender—his defensive metrics from Utah aren't good.

The Illini don't have much in the way of instant-impact freshmen unless someone plays above their ranking. The three-player 2021 class is headlined by a pair of 6'7 small forwards who both slipped just inside the top 100 on the 247 Composite, though recent three-star SG signee Brandon Podziemski has significantly differing opinions on his talent after posting huge numbers against underwhelming Wisconsin high school competition.

It's hard not to see this team taking a significant step back in 2022. There isn't another Dosunmu or Cockburn coming in, or even an Adam Miller. The next couple years of Underwood's tenure may make or break his time in Champaign.

[Hit THE JUMP for Indiana's wild offseason, Iowa's rough one, MSU's impact transfer, and more.]

Scores from last week (home team listed second):

• Rutgers 51, Nebraska 72
• Illinois 76, Michigan 53
• Wisconsin 69, Purdue 73
• Indiana 58, MSU 64
• Minnesota 65, PSU 84
• Northwestern 60, Maryland 55
• MSU 50, Michigan 69
• Nebraska 64, Iowa 102
• Illinois 73, OSU 68
• Indiana 58, Purdue 67
• Rutgers 77, Minnesota 70 (OT)
• Michigan 64, MSU 70
• Wisconsin 73, Iowa 77
• Nebraska 78, Northwestern 79
• PSU 66, Maryland 61

As you're probably aware, Illinois closed strong enough to whinge about Michigan ducking, uh, Northwestern, Penn State, and Indiana. Purdue, meanwhile, took advantage of Ohio State's tough late-season schedule to slip past them for the #4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. On the other end, Maryland stumbled to the finish line, though they're still in good shape for an NCAA bid.

The Final Regular Season Standings

Indiana and Minnesota are missing the tournament barring miracle BTT runs. Incidentally, there are rumors that both Archie Miller and Richard Pitino will be looking for new jobs this offseason.

The Actual All-Conference Awards

Are a debacle. They will be discussed in a separate post.

[Hit THE JUMP for awards that make sense.]

2/25/2021 – Michigan 79, Iowa 57 – 17-1, 12-1 Big Ten

Video games that have made questionable design choices will often have certain levels that, once achieved, massively spike the player's power. Sometimes this is because you've been holding some whiz-bang item in your inventory for six hours that is suddenly wieldable because you hit level 36. You can be an invincible god slaughtering millions of undead and also if you try to wield that purple warhammer you're going to get the worst cramp. I find this to be an annoying mechanic, most of the time.

The other time is when Hunter Dickinson pulls out his heretofore unknown Peacock Slayer and it glints in the sun once, twice, three times.

The next possession resulted in a heavily contested reverse layup that came up short, and the world realigned a little more. The story of this game was not the story everyone expected. I didn't know Michigan could do that.

The story of this season is "I didn't know Michigan could do that" over and over again. When the ability unlocked is holding the probable Naismith winner to 5/17 from two, look out. Michigan held Garza to his second-worst ORTG since midway through his sophomore year. The only team to top this performance was Michigan State, which lost by 30 because it was triple-teaming the post.

Michigan didn't double once except for an apparent moment of confusion, and did more than survive. They dominated the post.

Dickinson singling up Garza allowed Michigan to crush Iowa's three-point shooting. First off, just 19 of Iowa's 69 attempts from the field were threes. That's 28%; Iowa usually has 40% of their shots  from deep. Second, Iowa only hit six and four of those were heavily contested, off-the-dribble jacks. There were only four or five looks that were actually good.

Even more remarkably, Iowa had four (four!) assists. Iowa entered this game with the fourth-highest A/FGM nationally. Attempts at the rim were rare: 16 vs 24 midrange attempts, and guys not named Garza go to the rim just eight times. If you can single up Garza Iowa's offense doesn't know what to do because it doesn't have a Plan B guy who can get to the basket or pull Franz stuff on pick and roll.

Synergy play splits tell a tale here:

• Iowa's worst efficiency comes when the PNR ball handler shoots. Iowa had 24 PNR possessions. 3 of them got to the roll man. 21 stuck with the ball handler.
• Iowa had just 13 spot up opportunities. (Michigan had 18.)
• Iowa got forced into 7 isolation situations. (Michigan had 1.)

Synergy doesn't really encapsulate Iowa's proficiency at not-quite-transition post ups based on Garza beating his man down the floor, but IIRC there were zero of those.

This was a master class against the best offense in the country. It started with Dickinson, but everyone played their part from Juwan Howard on down. You do not get that level of lockdown without everyone buying in all the way.

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If you wander over to the seedy side of opponent message boards you'll get a consistent message: Juwan Howard is a figurehead and Phil Martelli is really running things. (Also: Michigan's All-American recruits aren't coming and Howard will take an NBA job in the next few years.)

This has been obviously untrue from the drop. Howard is as involved as John Beilein is on the sideline, shouting out instructions and coaching guys up as they come off, as Martelli sits, watches, and offers the occasional recommendation.

This is Phil Martelli and approve and wholeheartedly agree with your assessment!! @JuwanHoward is the STAR of @umichbball !! #ProudToBe Haiti him https://t.co/RsO797vrEs

— Phil Martelli (@PhilMartelli) February 26, 2021

Hoop Vision's latest post notes that Michigan is running a set Jordan Sperber describes as "the most NBA":

So why “the most NBA play” label?

Admittedly, I don’t watch much (or really any) NBA until the playoffs. But last playoffs, the veer and the baseline exit were the two NBA concepts that jumped out to me the most as lacking representation in the typical NCAA offense.

And Michigan just turned a massively prolific post player into a pumpkin despite playing Austin Davis and Brandon Johns about a third of the time. Davis, a nobody recruit people openly questioned John Beilein for taking, outplayed Luka Garza during their time on the court together. A below-the-rim center with Bill Laimbeer's jumping ability is shooting 70% from the floor. Tell me Juwan Howard didn't do that.

I didn't know Austin Davis could do that. I didn't know Brandon Johns could do that. I didn't know that a basketball team could just keep pulling swords out of its backpack until it finds the one with the right combination of filigree and runes to banish whatever ogre is threatening the village this time around.

[After THE JUMP: Franz gets his due]