brad underwood

It started as The Alfonso Plummer Game and it ended as the Michigan Can't Defend A Ball Screen Game. Either way you look at it, due to a convergence of factors, Michigan's defensive effort today against Illinois at Crisler Center was wretched. In the process, it doomed the home team to a 93-85 loss on Sunday afternoon, despite a valiant comeback late that came up just short. With only three games left in the season, the 15-12 Wolverines are now likely in need of two wins in the final week of the regular season to feel good about the NCAA Tournament entering the B1G Tourney in Indianapolis. 

The opening of the game was a torrid explosion from the Illinois shooters, and more specifically, Alfonso Plummer. The journeyman wing sniper shoveled in threes like coal into a steam engine, shooting 7/11 from the floor in the first half, including 5/8 from distance, plus 4/6 at the stripe for a whopping 23 points. Michigan lost track of Plummer on a few occasions, but he was also knocking down difficult shots off the dribble from way outside. The ole heatcheck shots, as they call them. The Illini offense was not nearly as successful outside of Plummer, with the squad mustering barely 40% from two, but shooting 8/14 from three point range will take you far. Trent Frazier and Kofi Cockburn were tied with 8 points in the first half. 

Michigan was unable to properly keep pace with Illinois' shooting explosion in that first half, but they did manage to enter the half only down eight. They did it despite making just two three pointers in that first half and despite only one player having a truly satisfactory offensive half. That would be Caleb Houstan, who led the Wolverines with 11 points, including 2/2 from three. The bigs struggled, though, with Dickinson and Diabate combining to shoot 4/14 from the floor. Dickinson in particular was not attacking the rim with enough strength, settling for awkward 6-8 foot floaters that were clanging out. Still, Michigan banked eight points at the line, did enough to limit turnovers, and entered the break down only 46-38. 

[Campredon]

It was in the second half that Michigan's defensive issues grew from "the other team is shooting the lights out and we're occasionally contributing to that" to "total schematic meltdown in the ball screen game". Though Illinois managed to shoot 67% from three in the second half, it came on just three attempts. The reason? They didn't need to attempt threes because the Fighting Illini shot a scorching 71% from two in the second half. Why try a three pointer when you can walk into the paint untouched for an easy deuce? That was the storyline. Illinois' ballscreens just obliterated the Michigan defense, with Brad Underwood using Kofi Cockburn's body like a fullback, clearing easy lanes to the rim. Often times, the penetrator would lay it off to Cockburn once inside, and the big man hung 19 on Michigan on 7/8 from the floor in the half. 

Michigan's offense struggled to keep pace with the sieve that was their defense, and the margin expanded to 15 points with 9:32 to go. The game started to seem over, but that's when DeVante' Jones put on his superhero cape. After Diabate had begun to trim the lead back to ~10, Jones took over, drawing a foul at the three point line and making all three, before knocking down a three on Michigan's next trip down the floor. Suddenly, the score was 76-71 Illinois with 6:32 to go. The Illini responded with a quick spurt of their own, highlighting some of Jones' defensive issues, getting two easy driving layups off screens for Andre Curbelo and Frazier. 

DeVante' Jones helped lead Michigan back [Campredon]

Michigan and Jones weren't done, though. Jones made a layup and after an Illinois turnover, he swished a couple free throws to trim it back to four, now with 3:12 left. Dickinson was hit with a tough foul, but Coleman Hawkins made just one of two at the line, and a transition three by Houstan forty seconds later sent Crisler into a frenzy: Illinois led just 82-80 with 2:03 to play. That was the end of the comeback, unfortunately. Kofi Cockburn made a hook shot, Houstan came up short on a layup attempt (possible foul was not called), Illinois snagged an OREB on a Jacob Grandison missed three that kicked off the heel, and then Trent Frazier knocked down a pull-up trey. 87-80 Illinois with 45 seconds left... goodnight. The teams traded makes and free throws in the final seconds, but the margin didn't budge much. Final score: Illinois 93, Michigan 85. 

In the end, Michigan lost this game because they let the opponent score 93 points on 57% from the field. It is very difficult to win a basketball game when your ball screen defense was as poor as Michigan's, and the fact they were within a bucket with under a minute to go despite playing that sort of interior defense, is pretty miraculous. Jones was not great defensively, but his 25 points helped keep Michigan in it, as did Houstan's 21. The big men did not pull their weight on offense, and the defense eliminated much of any chance of winning. 

The Wolverines now are 15-12 and 9-8 in the conference, with three games remaining. Those are home games against Michigan State and Iowa, followed by a road game against Ohio State. The goal should be to go 2-1 in those remaining three to shore up the tournament odds heading into Indianapolis. The next one, against the Spartans on Tuesday night, is a huge one. That game is scheduled for Tuesday night at 8:30 PM EST and will be broadcasted on FS1. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

Scores from last week (home team listed second):

• Illinois 72, MSU 81
• PSU 86, Nebraska 83
• Indiana 63, Rutgers 74
• Iowa 57, Michigan 79
• OSU 67, MSU 71
• Nebraska 70, Illinois 86
• Northwestern 67, Minnesota 59
• Purdue 73, PSU 52
• Michigan 73, Indiana 57
• Illinois 74, Wisconsin 69
• Minnesota 74, Nebraska 78
• MSU 55, Maryland 73
• Iowa 73, OSU 57

This was a great week for Michigan, a bad one for Ohio State, and a brutal one for Indiana's and Minnesota's tourney chances.

The Standings

*Torvik's projections no longer include postponed games.

Michigan's magic number for winning the title is down to one. Any M win or Illinois loss will wrap it up; the two just so happen to face off tomorrow evening. Both KenPom and Torvik not only project the Wolverines to win that game but also both MSU matchups to finish with the most victories in the conference despite playing only 17 of their 20 scheduled games.

Illinois Update: Signs Point to No Ayo, Brad Underwood Says Something Stupid

preparing to claim a title at 14-6, somehow [Campredon]

Even if Ayo Dosunmu returned from his broken nose tomorrow night after missing the last two games, the chances Illinois wins out and Michigan loses out are 0.2%, according to Torvik's title odds. Given that bleak outlook, it's sensible for the Illini to let Dosunmu completely heal before a postseason run, and it's looking like that's the plan. First, there's the early line for the game:

Early line has Michigan favored by 8.5 points against Illinois. I can't imagine that bodes well for Ayo Dosunmu's chances to play tomorrow.

— Dylan Burkhardt (@umhoops) March 1, 2021

Then there's this quote from Illinois coach Brad Underwood:

Illinois' Ayo Dosumnu (facial injuries) remains "day-to-day", per Brad Underwood.

Underwood on Dosunmu's status for the postseason:

"We're certainly hopeful of that. He's had every possible facial evaluation. We're not going to put him out there unless he's fully healthy."

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 1, 2021

This is the right approach. Particularly in a year with a condensed schedule, any good coach is going to prioritize long-term health over short-term gains and be understanding when other teams face similar dilemm-- wait, what's that?

Brad Underwood sending some subs: "We’re going to honor the (postponed games) b/c we’re a member of this league. We’re not gonna be the teams that pick & choose what we play for whatever. We’re going to show up. I think it’s about character, & this team has a ton of it." #Illini

— Gavin Good (@itsallG_O_O_D) February 27, 2021

Beat them by 40, please.

There's no legitimate reason to be upset Michigan didn't force themselves to cram in 20 Big Ten games when they were effectively under state-sanctioned quarantine for two weeks. The Wolverines rescheduled the toughest game that was postponed, which was—yup—the Illinois game. They gave MSU back-to-back cracks at an upset. The games they didn't reschedule—hosting Indiana, trips to Northwestern and PSU—would've helped their chances of winning a regular season title. The reason not to put them back in was player safety.

Meanwhile, the gripe about Michigan's women's team returning earlier than the men needs context. Namely, the WBB squad already had three games postponed before the two-week shutdown. They've now been left off two straight NCAA bracket reveals of the top 16 teams despite having a strong argument for inclusion, and in the first reveal the committee specifically cited M's need to play more games to earn consideration for a top-four seed. They were under significantly more pressure than the men to return early and it certainly hasn't seemed to help the women's squad form that they did so.

It's unfortunate that Dosunmu isn't looking likely to play. I want to see Michigan smash Illinois at full strength. Winning more Big Ten games in three fewer total contests may have to do.

[Hit THE JUMP for the pettiest table I've ever made, updated bracketology, injury news, and more.]

Uh, brace yourselves? The situation is just a tad different from the last time I did this in early December, when Ohio State was on top of the college basketball world and Purdue ranked 71 spots ahead of Rutgers on KenPom.

Current Standings (As of Feb. 3)

Michigan State being tied atop the standings is unsurprising; being tied with Illinois, on the other hand, was less anticipated.

Stock Up

As we're all too aware, Ayo Dosunmu has been great. [Campredon]

Illinois/Ayo Dosunmu. You probably don't need to be told this given recent events. Since the new year, they've been the #11 team in the country according to Bart Torvik's rankings, and they've done it on the strength of their stifling defense. That's not what anybody expected after watching the Illini last year, but Brad Underwood completely overhauled his defensive scheme to remarkable effect. They'd won seven straight—including road upsets of Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan—before dropping an intense game at Iowa yesterday. Their only Big Ten losses are on the road to Michigan State, Iowa, and Maryland, the three other teams most likely to win or share the regular season title.

As we saw in the game at Crisler, when Illinois has needed a bucket, they've put the ball in the hands of Ayo Dosunmu. He's been on a tear over the last eight games, averaging 17.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game while shooting 54/42/85 (2P%/3P%/FT%) and keeping his turnovers in check; over that stretch he has a 118 ORating on 25% usage. Dosumnu is starting to look like the player some thought was ticketed for the lottery when he arrived in Champaign. He's no longer mostly a transition threat, and while Illinois still needs more shooting, they're arguably the most complete team in the conference anyway. As Brian mentioned on the podcast, the pieces of this team fit together very well.

[Hit THE JUMP for Garza the POTY, Wisconsin's wild ride, OSU's fall back to earth, and more.]