Honestly I’d love to just compile a spreadsheet of all of his weird ass score predictions and see what I find in general. Seems like a worthwhile offseason time killing project
I agree with this! The Penn State prediction about them driving the field once was definitely spiritually correct: one of those long drives was a field goal and another was basically garbage time, so I feel like it's worthy of at least half a point
(I also want to add that in general, I loved this and I'm so glad you did it, OP)
The play itself isn't necessarily underrated but I feel like we aren't giving Morris enough love for scoring not just his first of the year, but his first career touchdown by outrunning the entire Bama secondary. That's legendary
Brian, your predictions for this game were pretty accurate. As pointed out, the "worry if" about the PSU DEs proved to be concerningly spot on, but thankfully we got the "cackle with knowing glee" of "Frames Janklin jankles it up." Additionally, stupid predictions were almost spot on until the final clock-drain drive for Penn State:
An old-timey Michigan game with 25 Blake Corum carries that go for 120 yards (he had 26 for 145)
PSU drives the field once. They also get Michigan on a trick play. (before that last drive this was completely accurate, the one trick play being the throwback to Allar [Edit: I guess they technically did twice, since that field goal was from the 5 yard line, but since it wasn't a TD I'll give it a pass])
You really might be right about FSU -- I probably undersold their "desperate need to win level," as some might say. I'm operating under the assumption that the committee would choose a one-loss power conference champ over a one-loss non champ, but I could see that being incorrect. It's especially difficult to imagine Georgia getting left out in the event of a close loss to Bama.
Texas and the Pac-12 champ both having one loss is definitely a threat but is, at the moment, unlikely. The probability that all three of those teams go into championship weekend with one loss or less is about 23%, and that's not yet factoring in the Big 12 title game (in this scenario, the Pac would be assured a one-loss champ). Not terribly long odds but no need to start sweating about it....yet.
MGoUser Dunder was tracking the season preview predictions at the beginning of the season but stopped. I missed them so I decided to pick it up.
Derrick Moore emerges into the clear starting strongside tackle and is on NFL lips entering 2024.
As Seth noted him and McGregor still have a “timeshare.” He's been good but not "on NFL lips" good.
Mason Graham has five sacks and approaches a 90 PFF grade.
Feels spot on. I don’t know exactly what Graham’s PFF grade is but it’s gotta be up there. He has 1.5 sacks so far so probably won’t get there but this feels spiritually correct.
Ditto Kris Jenkins.
Ditto my response for Graham (Jenkins has 1 sack).
Colson improves noticeably but not improbably; he does not fully harness his physical ability but covering grass is much less prominent; he enters the draft early and goes on day 2.
This UFR is making this one seem a pretty optimistic. He has improved a bit for sure, but I'd be surprised if he goes on day 2 of the draft.
Josh Wallace holds CB2 all year, though there's a significant amount of rotation.
Pretty accurate. Wallace sure seems like he’ll hold CB2 all year but guys like Harris are still getting plenty of run. Unfortunately, Wallace separating himself is mostly because those rotation pieces haven’t yielded much optimism.
Rod Moore has three crucial interceptions and is an All American. OSU stands by their decision to not recruit him because he was a three star.
Can the interception from this game be called crucial? Probably not given that it’s Indiana, but it was nice to stop them from scoring. As for him being an All American, it looks like he’s starting to get there but probably won’t actually earn the honor because of his early season injury.
Jyaire Hill flashes enough in ~150 snaps to suggest he's the next one.
He didn’t play in this game so no more data here.
Josiah Stewart is a near-clone of Uche, but an increment below him.
Stewart wasn't mentioned in this piece outside of the chart. I wouldn't call him a "near-clone" at this point.
I've also wondered about Sainristil's shield but in the PFF Midseason All-American post from yesterday they had him as an honorable mention at the nickel, and the diagram does say the shield is for "All-American-Caliber" players. So I suppose it fits!
One thing that Brian et al have mentioned is that the oline grades don’t make sense across teams (like comparing Michigan and MSU’s lines) but generally within the same team will be fairly accurate. So yeah, probably not a good sign for Hinton
Looking at games vs top 10 and top 5 opponents outside of OSU:
Top 10 Teams
Top 10 at the time overall: 3-8
Top 10 at end of season overall: 3-11
Top 10 at time at home: 3-1
Top 10 at end of season at home: 3-1
Top 10 at time on the road: 0-4
Top 10 at end of season on the road: 0-5
Top 10 at time neutral: 0-3
Top 10 at end of season neutral: 0-5
Top 5 Teams
Top 5 at the time overall: 0-4
Top 5 at end of season overall: 0-3
Top 5 at time at home: 0-0
Top 5 at end of season at home: 0-0
Top 5 at time on the road: 0-2
Top 5 at end of season on the road: 0-1
Top 5 at time neutral: 0-2
Top 5 at end of season neutral: 0-2
I figured removing them would be most impactful for top 10/5 games, which seems to be true. A few years ago this would've made our stats look a lot better...now it just removes our best wins!
Games where one team is ranked and the other is not:
M unranked, opponent ranked: 1-2
M ranked, opponent unranked: 51-3 (!) (obnoxious fact: 2 of these 3 losses were MSU)
And just for the sake of completion:
Games where neither team was ranked: 8-3
Keep in mind these are "at the time" rankings so it includes some pretty misleading data (such as the 2017 win vs Florida or our 2020 team ever being ranked) but still interesting to see.
Lastly, a dollar to anyone who can guess the only ranked opponent that Harbaugh has beaten with an unranked Michigan team. That one totally slipped my mind
Agreed, but people talk about it all the time so I included it. I do think "at the time" is useful for top 5 or top 10, since beating a top 5 or top 10 team automatically makes them much less likely to finish top 5 or top 10
At the "Fire Dave Brandon" rally about a decade ago, a friend of mine (who didn't even really follow football and just wanted to attend for fun) started a "Dave Sucks" chant to the tune of the Temptation "You Suck" chant. He was pretty proud of himself for that one
I just mentioned that he dropped 15 points on MSU as a fun aside. Maybe I should’ve left that out. The real draw is that he can play the 4 and shoots nearly 40% from 3, and it feels like Michigan should be looking at anyone with that description
Alex's subtle humor always gets me. I laughed out loud at "Plenty of fans are happy to book a weekend vacation to follow their team if the destination is in the tropics and not a city best known for being the lyrical figurehead of Rust Belt industrial decay"
Was there some kind of audio issue that made Isaiah Todd get brought up out of the blue in the hockey section? It was so out of nowhere I had to laugh and go back and make sure I heard it correctly
I thought the same thing, but do I think the stars are relative to the rest of the team so it’s really just implying that those three guys are playing much better than anyone else on our team right now (which is sadly probably true)
It’s totally fine for me on desktop, but it always takes about 45 minutes to load on mobile. I’ve always wondered if that was just my phone or if it was like that for everyone
Why even include Texas here? In what world would they have a 1/3 shot at making the playoff if they win out? 538 has a lot of stuff with poor validity like this
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Honestly I’d love to just compile a spreadsheet of all of his weird ass score predictions and see what I find in general. Seems like a worthwhile offseason time killing project
When I said Michigan’s score, I meant specifically the number of points Michigan scored. I guess I did not make that clear enough! My bad
It appears you are correct…but then why did Seth say “yes THAT Bo”?? Is he just messing with us?
I agree with this! The Penn State prediction about them driving the field once was definitely spiritually correct: one of those long drives was a field goal and another was basically garbage time, so I feel like it's worthy of at least half a point
(I also want to add that in general, I loved this and I'm so glad you did it, OP)
The play itself isn't necessarily underrated but I feel like we aren't giving Morris enough love for scoring not just his first of the year, but his first career touchdown by outrunning the entire Bama secondary. That's legendary
Brian, your predictions for this game were pretty accurate. As pointed out, the "worry if" about the PSU DEs proved to be concerningly spot on, but thankfully we got the "cackle with knowing glee" of "Frames Janklin jankles it up." Additionally, stupid predictions were almost spot on until the final clock-drain drive for Penn State:
You can tell this was written by an Ohio State fan because the statement “utilizing a widespread pattern of cheating” doesn’t make any sense
You really might be right about FSU -- I probably undersold their "desperate need to win level," as some might say. I'm operating under the assumption that the committee would choose a one-loss power conference champ over a one-loss non champ, but I could see that being incorrect. It's especially difficult to imagine Georgia getting left out in the event of a close loss to Bama.
Texas and the Pac-12 champ both having one loss is definitely a threat but is, at the moment, unlikely. The probability that all three of those teams go into championship weekend with one loss or less is about 23%, and that's not yet factoring in the Big 12 title game (in this scenario, the Pac would be assured a one-loss champ). Not terribly long odds but no need to start sweating about it....yet.
I appreciate the sentiment! I guess I'll have to keep doing it every week, just for the two of you
Our coaching staff must've been so pumped when they saw the sign for the "Let Cornelius Johnson run screamingly wide open" play
MGoUser Dunder was tracking the season preview predictions at the beginning of the season but stopped. I missed them so I decided to pick it up.
https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/nfl-reporter-annie-agar-goes-viral-racist-tweets
A classic "person who was an edgy teenager gets famous and forgets to delete their old shitty tweets" situation
I've also wondered about Sainristil's shield but in the PFF Midseason All-American post from yesterday they had him as an honorable mention at the nickel, and the diagram does say the shield is for "All-American-Caliber" players. So I suppose it fits!
I've argued with my friends over this definitely not completely meaningless stat before. The white pants don't have the bad juju, and maize ones do!
Under Harbaugh, record while wearing...
All whites: 21-12
White jersey, maize pants: 2-2
White jersey, blue pants: 4-0 (!!)
Clearly, this is unequivocal proof we should be wearing the blue pants every single away game
I was about to point that out as well! Can’t believe Raj forgot the absolute worst of all the post-Osborne coaches
Actually, I totally can. He was pretty forgettable
Unequivocal proof that JJ is better than Joe Burrow
There’s a reply that has the full defensive back grades and shows Sabb with the highest grade, which seems like a great sign
I'm excited for game 4 when we never have to hear about this again
I'm probably just insane but I've grown to like it. Kind of like an MGoASMR
An honestly not super memorable game that had 2 very memorable moments: that Darboh catch and this mind-bending Deveon Smith run
Looking at games vs top 10 and top 5 opponents outside of OSU:
Top 10 Teams
Top 10 at the time overall: 3-8
Top 10 at end of season overall: 3-11
Top 10 at time at home: 3-1
Top 10 at end of season at home: 3-1
Top 10 at time on the road: 0-4
Top 10 at end of season on the road: 0-5
Top 10 at time neutral: 0-3
Top 10 at end of season neutral: 0-5
Top 5 Teams
Top 5 at the time overall: 0-4
Top 5 at end of season overall: 0-3
Top 5 at time at home: 0-0
Top 5 at end of season at home: 0-0
Top 5 at time on the road: 0-2
Top 5 at end of season on the road: 0-1
Top 5 at time neutral: 0-2
Top 5 at end of season neutral: 0-2
I figured removing them would be most impactful for top 10/5 games, which seems to be true. A few years ago this would've made our stats look a lot better...now it just removes our best wins!
You got it! Third win of the Harbaugh era
…
This is a great question.
Games where both teams are ranked:
M as higher ranked team: 9-7
M as lower ranked team: 5-10
Games where one team is ranked and the other is not:
M unranked, opponent ranked: 1-2
M ranked, opponent unranked: 51-3 (!) (obnoxious fact: 2 of these 3 losses were MSU)
And just for the sake of completion:
Games where neither team was ranked: 8-3
Keep in mind these are "at the time" rankings so it includes some pretty misleading data (such as the 2017 win vs Florida or our 2020 team ever being ranked) but still interesting to see.
Lastly, a dollar to anyone who can guess the only ranked opponent that Harbaugh has beaten with an unranked Michigan team. That one totally slipped my mind
Agreed, but people talk about it all the time so I included it. I do think "at the time" is useful for top 5 or top 10, since beating a top 5 or top 10 team automatically makes them much less likely to finish top 5 or top 10
At the "Fire Dave Brandon" rally about a decade ago, a friend of mine (who didn't even really follow football and just wanted to attend for fun) started a "Dave Sucks" chant to the tune of the Temptation "You Suck" chant. He was pretty proud of himself for that one
It also says Araiza wasn’t at the party at the time the alleged incident occurred
Well, it's still better than the Tennis Channel showing pickleball
I just mentioned that he dropped 15 points on MSU as a fun aside. Maybe I should’ve left that out. The real draw is that he can play the 4 and shoots nearly 40% from 3, and it feels like Michigan should be looking at anyone with that description
That 2 point %, oooof. So maybe not our first choice, but still probably better than what we have just from the shooting…
Ah, my first time failing at embedding a tweet! I even Googled how to do it and everything. Alas
Alex's subtle humor always gets me. I laughed out loud at "Plenty of fans are happy to book a weekend vacation to follow their team if the destination is in the tropics and not a city best known for being the lyrical figurehead of Rust Belt industrial decay"
Was there some kind of audio issue that made Isaiah Todd get brought up out of the blue in the hockey section? It was so out of nowhere I had to laugh and go back and make sure I heard it correctly
I thought the same thing, but do I think the stars are relative to the rest of the team so it’s really just implying that those three guys are playing much better than anyone else on our team right now (which is sadly probably true)
I'd argue that saying Rutgers "usually" plays us close is pretty intense recency bias. It really was only 2020-2021
The original is actually pretty good too
It’s totally fine for me on desktop, but it always takes about 45 minutes to load on mobile. I’ve always wondered if that was just my phone or if it was like that for everyone
After being as obnoxiously pedantic as you could possibly be in this thread you can’t get snippy when someone does the same thing to you
If you don’t know now you’ll figure it out by New Year’s Eve
(He’s TCU’s coach)
I’m surprised Welschof has played in every game. He must play special teams?
TCU has a great QB and some really solid receivers too. But if we slowed down OSU, I’m optimistic we can slow them down
Didn’t there used to always be a box score along with these write ups? I miss those!
Why even include Texas here? In what world would they have a 1/3 shot at making the playoff if they win out? 538 has a lot of stuff with poor validity like this