Hello again! Last week I posted a diary to help to keep up with the CFB playoff race, and received two (2) responses from mgousers noting that they appreciated the effort, and that was enough for me to come back again. Some context:

The zaniness of college football means following who will make the playoff is not nearly as cut and dry as, say, the NFL, so I think it’s interesting to track as the situation develops. I try to keep things relatively objective and report the facts of each team’s situation rather than what I *think* will happen, which mostly means looking at where teams are currently ranked and probabilities of winning remaining games. So, with that out of the way, here’s where we currently stand in the CFB Playoff race:

(Note: all probabilities and rankings are according to SP+)  

 

Firstly, some farewells:

Oklahoma

Oklahoma just finished their “serious contender” to “not in the conversation” speedrun. Two weeks ago Oklahoma could’ve been in the “wiggle room” tier; after back-to-back losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State, their playoff hopes are over. Over the weekend, Oklahoma State and Alan Bowman won the final (for the time being) Bedlam matchup, which I believe is their second win over Oklahoma in the past 357 years. The good news for the Sooners is that their Big 12 title hopes aren’t dead yet, as they have a 53% chance of winning out that could get them into the title game. There’s a total mess at the top of the Big 12 standings though – at the moment I have no idea how the tiebreakers would work out and I’m afraid to find out. 

 

Missouri

In a rare occurrence of getting eliminated from the playoff race and actually feeling pretty okay about it, Mizzou gave Georgia as good of a fight as any team can hope for playing at Sanford Stadium. There were even moments where it felt like the Tigers could pull it off, but ultimately the Bulldog juggernaut was too much to handle. This effectively ends their SEC title and playoff hopes, but definitely does not tarnish what has been a solid season for the Tigers. They’ve got a 65% chance at going at least 9-3, and a 20% chance of going 10-2 – which might even be enough for a NY6 bowl depending on how the chips fall. This season didn’t reach the immaculate heights it would’ve had they upset Georgia, but it’s still definitely a successful one.

 

LSU

It was always a long shot for a two-loss team to make the playoff even if they are in the SEC, but LSU was fully eliminated at the hands of Bama on Saturday. A bit of a disappointing season for the Tigers, as they started out with championship aspirations but have lost to all three of the teams they’ve played ranked in the top 20 of SP+. Is it true that Brian Kelly can’t win big games? I have no idea, but if he doesn’t win a championship at LSU – where each of the past three head coaches have a national title – that might provide some proof. The saddest part of this loss might be that Jayden Daniels’s Heisman campaign might be over despite his level of play. If only he got to play alongside a real defense…never go full Lincoln Riley.

 

And now, the contenders.

 

The “wiggle room” tier*:

Ohio State (CFP #1, AP Poll #3, SP+ #3)

Leading us off once again are the fightin’ Pete Thamels. Ohio State made a harrowing journey to Piscataway, New Jersey, where the Scarlet Knights gave them everything they could muster. Rutgers actually played quite well but a back-breaking pick six and several drives stalling out in the red zone thwarted any hopes of an upset. While OSU didn’t necessarily underperform (their 19 point margin of victory was quite close to most spreads), they also continued to show vulnerabilities. I try to say this as a pure college football fan and not just as an OSU hater: I don’t think many believe this is truly the best team in the country (evidence: a total of three first place votes in the AP poll). However, the good news for our Buckeye friends is that that doesn’t matter: what does matter is that they remain at #1 and can still probably survive a loss before the end of the year. SP+ tells us what we all know: if that loss comes, it’s probably gonna come @ #1 Michigan, and not against #72 MSU or #51 Minnesota. And that loss to Michigan might tank their conference championship hopes…can the Bucks sneak into the playoff for two straight years without ever winning the Big Ten? We might find out.

What they need to make the playoff: lose no more than one of their remaining games. However, if that one loss is against Michigan, things could get hairy.

 

Georgia (CFP #2, AP Poll #1, SP+ #2)

Georgia is at the level where winning decidedly against a top-15 opponent is simply “taking care of business” and that’s exactly what they did this weekend. As stated previously, there were moments when it felt like Missouri could pull off the upset, but there was never any doubt who the better team was – and that’s in no way an insult to Missouri. Georgia has truly reached peak-2010s-Bama levels where a loss to anyone other than a handful of elite teams would be a shock to the system of the college football world. That being said, they still have a couple of games coming that are technically losable according to SP+: #15 Ole Miss and @ #11 Tennessee. SP+ sees the Tennessee game as especially losable: their chance of winning sits at 65%, which is similar to our chances of beating Penn State. I’ll believe it when I see. Interestingly, this amounts to only a 47% chance of winning out – I’m not one to doubt statistics, but that feels suspiciously low. Maybe SP+ knows something. Either way, even if they do drop a game, it’s basically a mulligan since beating Missouri all but wrapped up the SEC east. The true showdown will be in the SEC championship game – but more on the team they’ll likely be matched up with later….

What they need to make the playoff: lose no more than one of their remaining games – I’d bet even a loss in the SEC title game won’t knock them out.

 

Michigan (CFP #3, AP Poll #2, SP+ #1)

Once again, Michigan has a very boring week with nothing at all to talk about. I won’t bother recapping a game you’re all intimately familiar with, so let’s talk about something more fun: tiebreakers! In the event of a three-way tie – i.e., if Penn State beats Michigan, Michigan beats Ohio State, and all three teams win all of their other games – the tiebreaker to determine who would win the East division would end up being which team’s West division opponents had the best overall record. Currently:

Penn State: 4-2 Iowa, 2-4 Northwestern, 2-4 Illinois (8-10 overall)

Michigan: 3-3 Nebraska, 3-3 Minnesota, 1-5 Purdue (7-11)

Ohio State: 3-3 Wisconsin, 3-3 Minnesota, 1-5 Purdue (7-11)

This isn’t considering the fact that Minnesota still has to play OSU, which in this scenario would be another loss. What this means: our hopes of winning the three way tie lie with Nebraska.

…it’s probably best if we just win out (which SP+ gives a 38% chance of happening. Buckle up).

What we need to make the playoff: win the Big Ten. I leave Michigan in the “wiggle room” tier because a loss to Maryland would not at all be damning and a loss to Penn State could be survivable (see above), but they definitely have less room to wiggle than any other team here. Don't even think about losing to Ohio State.

 

Florida State (CFP #4, AP Poll #4, SP+ #8)

The Noles keep rolling. Things got a little sketchy for a bit playing @ Pitt, but let he who has not played a clunker against Pitt cast the first stone. Florida State did what they always seem to do and at a certain point remembered they’re a much better team and should probably start acting like it. Now, all that stands between FSU and a 12-0 season is an FCS team and their two biggest rivals (#26 Miami and @ #36 Florida). Luckily for them, they’re a much better team than either of those rivals: SP+ gives them a 60% chance of winning out, and a 95% (!!!!!!) chance of winning at least 11 games. It’s tough to say for certain if FSU could make it as a one-loss team, but it’s pretty rare that a one-loss power conference champ doesn’t make the playoff (it’s only happened twice: 2018 Ohio State and 2014 TCU/Baylor). One caveat: it looks more likely every week that Louisville will be the team waiting for them in the conference championship game, who would be the best team they’ve played since LSU to start the season. 

What they need to make the playoff: lose no more than one game – but the weakness of the ACC could prove problematic if there's another one-loss teams they’re vying for the final spot with. The win over LSU looking as good as possible will be important.

 

Washington (CFP #5, AP Poll #5, SP+ #9)

Remember in the LSU section when I said to never go full Lincoln Riley? Washington might be going full Lincoln Riley. Yes, beating Lincoln Riley himself can’t really be going full Lincoln Riley, and there’s no shame in giving up points to a Lincoln Riley-led team, but Washington has now fallen to #9 in SP+ mostly because their defense is barely clinging to being in the top 40. It’s a bit harsh to start out a section recapping a win on the road against a top 20 team with ridicule, but you worry about the upcoming schedule: games versus #24 Utah and @ #16 Oregon State are both against more complete teams than USC (yes, even Utah’s pedestrian offense is *much* better than USC’s defense according to SP+), and #52 Wazzu will be out for blood. A loss feels likely…but SP+ still gives them a healthy 35% chance of winning out. On top of that, the chances of going at least 11-1 are 82%! Wow, ok, I definitely was too harsh. 11-1 and a win in the Pac-12 title game will almost certainly be good enough to claim a playoff spot (see: previous note about one loss conference champs). Who would they most likely play in the Pac-12 title game, anyway? Oh. Ah, I see. Right. Yeah, might need to fix the defense before then. 

What they need to make the playoff: lose no more than one of their remaining games and win the Pac-12. Easier said than done. It’s possible that only a loss to Oregon in the title game could still get them in, a la TCU last year, but I wouldn’t bank on that.

 

The “win and you’re in” tier:

Oregon (CFP #6, AP Poll #6, SP+ #4)

Oregon once again leads off the one-loss teams, and for good reason: outside of their close loss to Washington they’ve been dominant. That domination hasn’t always come against the stiffest competition (the Cal team they beat this week is MSU-level bad) but Michigan fans know that’s still an indicator of a good team. Oregon finishes the year off playing #17 USC, @ #91 Arizona State, and #16 Oregon State, with a better than 75% chance to win each of those games. That leaves them more likely than not to win out (57%), higher than most teams above them in the rankings. If they can roll through their next three opponents as expected, Washington – and revenge – will probably be waiting for them in the Pac-12 title game. If the Huskies and Ducks don’t lose before then, that game really could end up being an all-timer, as they clash for a playoff spot and for the final crown of the conference they helped destroy. Despite their one loss, it sure feels like Oregon has a great shot at the playoff – and maybe even a national title.

What they need to do to make the playoff: win out. Given that at least two teams above them are guaranteed to have lost if they win out, it feels like that’s all that’s necessary to make it in.

 

Texas (CFP #7, AP Poll #7, SP+ #6)

Last week, I somehow completely forgot to mention one of the most significant things about the current state of the Texas team: QB Quinn Ewers’s injury. Starting out their game against Kansas State it didn’t look like they’d miss him all that much, but after an insane stretch in the third quarter led to Kansas State tying the game after being down big, things got tense in Austin. The Longhorns did end up pulling through in OT, though, thanks in no small part to some mishaps from the Kansas State kicker. That keeps their playoff hopes alive and well and knocks off the most difficult game remaining on the regular season schedule, not to mention another nice win to add to the resume. Like Oregon, Texas has a good shot at winning out – 49% chance with none of the remaining games less than 73% – but do have a couple of tricky road games @ #29 TCU and @ #42 Iowa State coming up (the final game is at home versus #35 Texas Tech). Additionally, SP+ doesn’t account for injuries, and not having Ewers in a road game environment might be tough. Also like Oregon, if they do win out that could potentially mean a rematch with their hated rival in the championship game – but it seems Oklahoma State is the more likely opponent. This is both good news (worse opponent: #31 versus #12) and bad news (no chance for revenge). Mostly good news though.

What they need to make the playoff: win out. It’s technically possible they could get left out even if they do win out given their ranking, but I’ll believe that a one loss conference champ Texas team with a win @ Bama gets left out of the playoff when I see it.

 

Alabama (CFP #8, AP Poll #8, SP #7)

I’ve seen this story before. Bama loses a game at some point and everyone declares the dynasty is over. They have some struggles in other games but they still manage to win. In fact, they just keep winning. And everyone keeps getting better. And suddenly, they’re right back in the championship conversation. LSU is a flawed team for sure, and we haven’t seen the Tide play an elite opponent since Texas, but do we really want to doubt the Dark Lord Saban? It feels like they’re on a collision course to clash with Georgia in the SEC title game at this point. Don’t just take it from me: SP+ gives them a 92% chance of winning at least two of their last three games, i.e. enough to win them the West division. This is a playoff preview, though, so the stat that really matters: a 52% chance of winning out. Why does SP+ see it only as a coin flip as to whether or not they’ll win out? Probably because two out of three games are road games against decent opponents – they play @ #25 Kentucky next week and @ #38 Auburn to end the year.

What they need to make the playoff: win out. A one-loss SEC champ Bama is never in a million years going to be left out of the playoff, regardless of where they rank right now. 

 

The “your previews are shorter because your odds are longer” tier:

Ole Miss (CFP #9, AP Poll #10, SP+ #15)

Ole Miss has a huge game this weekend @ #2 Georgia. Pull that off and we’ll start talking about them as a serious contender. 

What they need to make the playoff: pull off the upset and win out…and even then, they won’t win the West unless Bama loses twice. They’ve got a steep climb ahead of them.

Penn State (CFP #10, AP Poll #9, SP+ #5)

The thumping of Maryland may have provided new confidence to this team. Much like Ole Miss: win this weekend and we’ll start talking seriously about playoff contention. Not sure if you guys know this, but they’ve got a big game coming up.

What they need to make the playoff: Win out. That’ll be enough. But it won’t be easy.

Louisville (CFP #11, AP Poll #11, SP+ #20)

Louisville continues to impress and climbs several spots in each ranking this week. With Miami and Kentucky still on the schedule, SP+ only gives them a 27% chance of winning out. Not the worst odds….

What they need to make the playoff: win out and hope for some chaos. Being ranked this low without a chance for a true marquee win until their conference championship game may hurt them.

 

KEY MATCHUPS THIS WEEK:   

Michigan @ Penn State

Ole Miss @ Georgia

 

Predicted playoff (based on current probabilities):

13-0 Georgia  

13-0 Michigan (no bias, I swear)

13-0 FSU

12-1 Oregon