There's always intrigue and uncertainty around the draft, with teams having an incentive to be secretive and deceptive about their true intentions. Teams float rumors that they love some player when they really intend to draft someone else or prefer to trade out of a spot.
This year the rumors and speculation are already ramped up and will spin out of control because of the strong QB class, the assessment that there are 4 top tier QBs that could go in the top 5-10 picks, the fact that the top 3 teams need QBs and that a number of teams farther down might be motivated to trade up.
JJ is key to all this because of his late rising status and disagreement about where he ranks in the top QB group. So he's going to be the focus of more speculation and rumors than anyone. Teams with the top picks will want to give the impression that they are going to take him to increase the trade value of their pick.
Recent mocks have him going to Washington or New England, or have Minnesota, Denver, or the Giants trading up. I've even seen one where Arizona takes JJ at #4 and trades Kyler Murray.
The most interesting thing to me about recent mocks is Nix and Penix falling out of the first round in just about all of them.
Right, TDs on the first two possessions, an EOH drive for a FG, and nothing after that. Chiefs never had great field position. The three Ravens TOs were all in Chiefs territory.
Also there are so many jobs available this year, many high profile candidates, and the NFL has moved the calendar to where no one can make a decision until I believe this week (with the exception of Mayo in NE where he had an existing contract provision that allowed him to be elevated immediately).
The drawn out process means that all these teams are interviewing multiple candidates multiple times. In some cases there's real uncertainty about who will be hired. In DC with the Commanders, I think everyone is assuming they will hire Ben Johnson as soon as they are able.
Right, I think he asked who would be interested in an "unreasonably nice and expensive" version, implying that they were already intending to do a less expensive version.
After this year, if no one offers JH an NFL HC job with all the openings and all of his recent success, then why should we think than anyone will offer him a job in the future? At that point I think he's stuck with U-M and U-M is stuck with him, for better or worse. Hopefully better.
Maybe it should be clear if no NFL team offers him a job this time--with all the openings at teams that seem like good fits--that no NFL team is ever going to offer him a HC job.
Maybe Jim is stuck with U-M, and U-M is stuck with him. Maybe that's the way it should be.
Exactly, and once JH isn't offered an NFL job it will be clear what leverage each side has and they should be able to work out something reasonable. Some of the ideas discussed here (e.g, lowering JH's pay to $1 with the option to resign and take his current year salary of NCAA action prevents him from doing part of his job) sounds workable to me.
Also, U-M really should go to court to challenge any crazy NCAA penalties and should make it clear now that they will do so.
I still think there's a pretty significant probability that Harbaugh is not offered an NFL job in this cycle. Has he been linked to any of the currently open jobs besides San Diego (edit: LAC)? Once that's clear they can negotiate the extension or stay with his current deal. The timeline isn't ideal, of course, but that might be where we are.
The Chargers would need to decide to actually offer him the job. That's the thing about all this Harbaugh speculation. I'm skeptical that an NFL team is going to offer him their HC job at the end of the day.
Hopefully that's not the case going forward with President Ono. U-M was willing to pursue the TRO on the Big Ten suspension until there was no point in doing so.
Am I correct that part of U-M dropping the larger suit against the Big Ten was contingent on the conference agreeing to not impose additional penalties? Dropping that suit was a mistake if they didn't receive such an assurance.
And I would think that there are strong legal grounds for going after the NCAA if they impose significant additional penalties on Harbaugh and/or U-M for "Cheeseburgergate" or penalize in-person scouting in a way that's out of line for previous infractions in that area.
I went to the Michigan-Rutgers MBB game at MSG just before COVID, 2/1/2020. I think Michigan gave up a home game for this one. The crowd was more pro-Michigan, but not overwhelmingly so. Maybe 65-35.
This is a good list to keep an eye on. It will be interesting to see how NIL evolves and whether you'll have some number of guys who would be drafted decide to stay next year.
The NFL draft was 17 rounds in 1972 (26 teams, 442 picks), so it's not really comparable to the modern draft (32 teams, 7 rounds, 224 picks). From a quick scan, it looks like 7 U-M players were drafted in the first 7 rounds in 1972.
Ono comes into office very soon after Mary Sue Coleman and the regents had to intervene to resolve the Pearson situation. Now, apparently, Ono has to intervene to resolve the Harbaugh situation.
Even with the state of Michigan athletics objectively being very good, you can't be in that job and lose the trust/confidence of the university leadership. Seems like that's what Warde's done.
Yes, and it seems that the number of tickets on sale is increasing. I'm checking Ticketmaster, SeatGeek and StubHub a couple times a day. You have to watch because the fees are different on each of those. On Ticketmaster you can see there are thousands of tickets on sale.
Less than two weeks out. I'm hopeful that they'll come down some more.
Cheapest seats on Ticketmaster are now $540 plus fees, prices in all but the best sections are continuing to drift down, with 2K+ tickets continuing to sit on the site with no discernable buying. And who knows how much broker inventory is sitting out there that isn't on the market yet.
I think prices have to come down somewhat--and soon--to induce some buying.
It's interesting. I had actually planned and booked a trip to Fort Lauderdale 12/27-1/1 a few weeks ago without any awareness of the Orange Bowl.
I've been checking Ticketmaster occasionally. After the announcement and the price spike, lots of tickets came onto the secondary market and prices seemed to drift down a bit.
Currently, it looks like there are at least 2-3,000 tickets available, with asking prices starting around $600. Tickets selling for under $600 appear to be selling at this point. With the large inventory, the possibility that there are lots of tickets that aren't yet for sale online but might be put on the market later, and the need for people who actually want to attend to make travel plans pretty soon, I don't think sellers will be able to hold the line at $600 for much longer. But I also think that any price drop will bring in additional buyers, so there's a floor. Lots of people probably made travel plans and are sitting and watching the ticket situation, like me.
I'm willing to wait. I'm even willing to show up at the stadium and tailgate, buy at the last minute, or go back to my hotel and watch the game on TV if the price is too high for me.
Recent Comments
The way to phrase this is that you just don't understand the hype about his hockey ability.
Some pulp
I was there too. Somewhat older (26).
Hey, that's one I was there for.
There's always intrigue and uncertainty around the draft, with teams having an incentive to be secretive and deceptive about their true intentions. Teams float rumors that they love some player when they really intend to draft someone else or prefer to trade out of a spot.
This year the rumors and speculation are already ramped up and will spin out of control because of the strong QB class, the assessment that there are 4 top tier QBs that could go in the top 5-10 picks, the fact that the top 3 teams need QBs and that a number of teams farther down might be motivated to trade up.
JJ is key to all this because of his late rising status and disagreement about where he ranks in the top QB group. So he's going to be the focus of more speculation and rumors than anyone. Teams with the top picks will want to give the impression that they are going to take him to increase the trade value of their pick.
Recent mocks have him going to Washington or New England, or have Minnesota, Denver, or the Giants trading up. I've even seen one where Arizona takes JJ at #4 and trades Kyler Murray.
The most interesting thing to me about recent mocks is Nix and Penix falling out of the first round in just about all of them.
<<too mean spirited>>
I'll mildly root for them. The Lions are my NFL team, but I don't have a huge emotional investment.
Right, TDs on the first two possessions, an EOH drive for a FG, and nothing after that. Chiefs never had great field position. The three Ravens TOs were all in Chiefs territory.
So the dream of getting Brian Kelly is dead?
<<yeesh, thought I might give folks a chuckle. sorry>>
Also there are so many jobs available this year, many high profile candidates, and the NFL has moved the calendar to where no one can make a decision until I believe this week (with the exception of Mayo in NE where he had an existing contract provision that allowed him to be elevated immediately).
The drawn out process means that all these teams are interviewing multiple candidates multiple times. In some cases there's real uncertainty about who will be hired. In DC with the Commanders, I think everyone is assuming they will hire Ben Johnson as soon as they are able.
Right, I think he asked who would be interested in an "unreasonably nice and expensive" version, implying that they were already intending to do a less expensive version.
I'm sure it is. I'll stick with the cheaper version. Happy to wait until Seth makes an announcement.
Aren't Atlanta and DC objectively better roster/ownership situations than LAC, provided Harbaugh can work with the GMs and the money is adequate?
Did Harbaugh really turn down the Broncos? Is that the accepted view of what happened there?
Yes, at least Harbaugh and Vrabel are known quantities as NFL coaches.
I was watching it after I donated pretty soon after it was announced, and it slowed down pretty significantly after the national championship.
After this year, if no one offers JH an NFL HC job with all the openings and all of his recent success, then why should we think than anyone will offer him a job in the future? At that point I think he's stuck with U-M and U-M is stuck with him, for better or worse. Hopefully better.
Maybe it should be clear if no NFL team offers him a job this time--with all the openings at teams that seem like good fits--that no NFL team is ever going to offer him a HC job.
Maybe Jim is stuck with U-M, and U-M is stuck with him. Maybe that's the way it should be.
Exactly, and once JH isn't offered an NFL job it will be clear what leverage each side has and they should be able to work out something reasonable. Some of the ideas discussed here (e.g, lowering JH's pay to $1 with the option to resign and take his current year salary of NCAA action prevents him from doing part of his job) sounds workable to me.
Also, U-M really should go to court to challenge any crazy NCAA penalties and should make it clear now that they will do so.
I still think there's a pretty significant probability that Harbaugh is not offered an NFL job in this cycle. Has he been linked to any of the currently open jobs besides San Diego (edit: LAC)? Once that's clear they can negotiate the extension or stay with his current deal. The timeline isn't ideal, of course, but that might be where we are.
Or even when an NFL team makes him an offer
Or Nickelback
The Chargers would need to decide to actually offer him the job. That's the thing about all this Harbaugh speculation. I'm skeptical that an NFL team is going to offer him their HC job at the end of the day.
Hopefully that's not the case going forward with President Ono. U-M was willing to pursue the TRO on the Big Ten suspension until there was no point in doing so.
Am I correct that part of U-M dropping the larger suit against the Big Ten was contingent on the conference agreeing to not impose additional penalties? Dropping that suit was a mistake if they didn't receive such an assurance.
And I would think that there are strong legal grounds for going after the NCAA if they impose significant additional penalties on Harbaugh and/or U-M for "Cheeseburgergate" or penalize in-person scouting in a way that's out of line for previous infractions in that area.
Unfortunately, they're paying you in Mel Tucker NFTs.
Wow, great write-up Seth.
Exactly, I think there's a good chance prices decline significantly from here and little risk that supply will decline to the point where prices rise.
I think having a dominant narrative that Alabama is just too good and U-M is going to lose is good for U-M
If you're Edwards, why doesn't it make sense to transfer to a program that will utilize his NFL-coveted skills?
Hopefully this won't affect the value of all the Mel Tucker NFTs that I bought.
I went to the Michigan-Rutgers MBB game at MSG just before COVID, 2/1/2020. I think Michigan gave up a home game for this one. The crowd was more pro-Michigan, but not overwhelmingly so. Maybe 65-35.
I wonder what Andrew Luck is doing these days.
This is a good list to keep an eye on. It will be interesting to see how NIL evolves and whether you'll have some number of guys who would be drafted decide to stay next year.
The NFL draft was 17 rounds in 1972 (26 teams, 442 picks), so it's not really comparable to the modern draft (32 teams, 7 rounds, 224 picks). From a quick scan, it looks like 7 U-M players were drafted in the first 7 rounds in 1972.
After Ono first tweeted last week that he was getting involved, didn't one of the regents post a supportive tweet?
Ono comes into office very soon after Mary Sue Coleman and the regents had to intervene to resolve the Pearson situation. Now, apparently, Ono has to intervene to resolve the Harbaugh situation.
Even with the state of Michigan athletics objectively being very good, you can't be in that job and lose the trust/confidence of the university leadership. Seems like that's what Warde's done.
Thanks, Seth. This is very informative. Hope you're going to do an NIL update post at some point.
To state the obvious, Harbaugh is not going to take an NFL job if he's not offered an NFL job.
It appears that, ultimately, for better or for worse, Harbaugh is stuck with Michigan and Michigan is stuck with Harbaugh. There we are.
Maybe the former assistant is Gattis?
Everyone can see everything. All of us that might be able to go are checking these sites every couple hours.
Yes, and it seems that the number of tickets on sale is increasing. I'm checking Ticketmaster, SeatGeek and StubHub a couple times a day. You have to watch because the fees are different on each of those. On Ticketmaster you can see there are thousands of tickets on sale.
Less than two weeks out. I'm hopeful that they'll come down some more.
Cheapest seats on Ticketmaster are now $540 plus fees, prices in all but the best sections are continuing to drift down, with 2K+ tickets continuing to sit on the site with no discernable buying. And who knows how much broker inventory is sitting out there that isn't on the market yet.
I think prices have to come down somewhat--and soon--to induce some buying.
It's interesting. I had actually planned and booked a trip to Fort Lauderdale 12/27-1/1 a few weeks ago without any awareness of the Orange Bowl.
I've been checking Ticketmaster occasionally. After the announcement and the price spike, lots of tickets came onto the secondary market and prices seemed to drift down a bit.
Currently, it looks like there are at least 2-3,000 tickets available, with asking prices starting around $600. Tickets selling for under $600 appear to be selling at this point. With the large inventory, the possibility that there are lots of tickets that aren't yet for sale online but might be put on the market later, and the need for people who actually want to attend to make travel plans pretty soon, I don't think sellers will be able to hold the line at $600 for much longer. But I also think that any price drop will bring in additional buyers, so there's a floor. Lots of people probably made travel plans and are sitting and watching the ticket situation, like me.
I'm willing to wait. I'm even willing to show up at the stadium and tailgate, buy at the last minute, or go back to my hotel and watch the game on TV if the price is too high for me.