In Your Opinion, Is JJ a Top 5 Pick?
In the UNLV and MSU games, JJ looked like the best quarterback in the draft to me. Even with the two interceptions in the TCU game I saw first overall pick talent in him.
On the other hand, there were several games where he missed open throws, didn’t see wide open receivers and didn’t look like a first round quarterback(Purdue, Illinois, Maryland and Bowling Green). Although he ended up with an impressive stat line in the Purdue game, he was wildly inaccurate at times when throwing to Cornelius Johnson. I think it would be a mistake to draft him in the top 5. I’m hoping he falls past 15 because he needs to sit and learn behind a veteran quarterback like Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith, or Dak Prescott.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:20 AM ^
I would take him as a top 5 draft pick. He's smart, quick on his feet to avoid sacks, makes big plays out of busts, is very fast, agile, and has a great accurate arm. I think he will go early and be an amazing success in the NFL.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:44 PM ^
JJ = the franchise
intellect, character, club house captain, athleticism, work ethic
what else you looking for?
April 16th, 2024 at 11:20 AM ^
Yep. 15-0. 27-1.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:22 AM ^
Counterpoint: Tim Tebow also had a great record in college.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:24 AM ^
But 100% not comparable. Everyone knew that Tebow's best traits for the college game didn't translate to the NFL. JJ's best traits 100% translate. He just lacks the mega high volume of the other top QB candidates.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:44 AM ^
I think Tebow's best traits didn't translate into that version of the NFL (late 00s, early 10s), but I do wonder had he gone to a place that was willing to continue refining his throwing motion (he had started in college a bit but it was still really elongated by NFL standards) if he could have hung on as a starter on a team. He was a plus athlete and while like a lot of Urban Meyer QBs seemingly didn't know how to read a defense that could stay with his receivers, seemingly had the ability to improve as a player. It sounds like there were issues off the field/mentally with him as it came to his role on a team that probably worked against him, but I'm not sure Josh Allen was any more refined coming out of college but the Bills invested in his development more than John Fox in Denver, who seemed annoyed having Tebow on the team almost immediately. I don't particularly like Tim Tebow as a person but I also thought going to Denver was a terrible landing spot.
That said, I agree that McCarthy is a much better QB than Tebow in terms of transferrable skills right now.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:11 PM ^
Tebow is essentially Tasom Hill right? He could have had that type of career.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:29 PM ^
I think there's only so much you can fix with throwing motions. I don't think anyone could turn Tebow's arm into an NFL starter arm.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:48 AM ^
Yeah, and like I have said before, I'm not comparing Tebow to McCarthy in terms of skill or traits. But when the only argument is W-L, there you go. It also diminishes the other 21 starters, to a degree, because there's no way JJ was solely responsible for that record.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:04 PM ^
The thing I heard mention many times, by guys who played QB at both levels, is that it's much harder to be a passer in a run heavy offense because you aren't often afforded the chance to get in a rhythm, making what JJ did even more impressive.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:09 PM ^
Ken Dorsey with Miami had the same record.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:39 PM ^
I'm guilty of lacking nuance in my post, but come on with this nonsense. Ken Dorsey was part of some of the most talent-laden teams in college football history; teams that were stacked everywhere with future All-Pros and even future NFL HOFers.
The JJ McCarthy Michigan teams barely crack the Top 15 in the talent indexes.
Ken Dorsey had JJ's physical skills (arm talent, athleticism, strength) only his wettest of dreams. Living in Miami at the time, I watched many games live at the old Orange Bowl when Ken Dorsey was leading The U. Dorsey was solid. Dorsey played smart football. But mostly everyone could see Dorsey's NFL limitations because his arm strength, unlike JJ, was average, at best.
Those Miami teams had a bunch of 3-low 4 star guys that became All-Pros. Miami's overall talent level went down after Butch Davis left and Larry Coker used external recruiting rankings. The difference is the lack of national camps/7-on-7 circuits 20 years ago made recruiting rankings much less precise.
Neither of these Michigan teams had the level of talent that 01 Miami had. If the recruiting rankings didn't reflect that, they were utterly wrong.
Portis AND McGahee AND Frank Gore (like WTF that has to be the best 3 RB corp ever), Ed Reed AND Sean Taylor AND Antrel Rolle, Kellen Winslow AND Jeremy Shockey, Vince Wilfork, Andre Johnson, Jonathan Vilma. Also a bunch of other guys who were NFL'ers but not top draft pick/Pro Bowl level,
Just an absurd amount of NFL talent stacked on NFL talent.
Tim Tebow could not throw the ball any where near the ability of JJ.
Bad comparison.
Nowhere in his post did he mention anything about anything other than W-L records.
Yup Tim Tebow is exactly like McCarthy ....
If JJ's name was Alex Orji
April 16th, 2024 at 11:29 AM ^
JJ was solid no doubt, but he didn't single-handedly carry us to 15-0 and 27-1. Blake, the defense & the coaching probably had more to do with our record over that span than JJ. He more than played his part with what he was asked to do, and was definitely an integral part of the team, but I wouldn't say he was the main reason we won a championship.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:59 AM ^
I didn't say JJ single-handedly carried us to 15-0/27-1. Come on.
I agree with you somewhat regarding credit being shared with EVERYONE, certainly to include Blake, the OL, the incredible defense, and the coaching. But unless you started watching football yesterday, it is an objective fact that the QB is the most important position. Winning football teams overwhelming are led by the top QBs. Exceptions are rare. Physical traits, which JJ has in spades, are crucially important, but imho, intangibles are even more important -- see chapter entitled "Thomas Brady."
JJ, time and time and time again, demonstrated he can lead a winning football team. My biggest criticism of JJ is that he sometimes throws dangerous passes against his momentum/across the field when a play breaks down. That won't fly in the NFL. He also needs to refine the outside-the-numbers passes to his left.
I was dead wrong when I argued in early-2022 that Cade should keep the starting job. I assumed Cade's intangibles were superior to JJ. I was naïve to the fact that to win a national championship, you need plus-talent AND plus-intangibles. If JJ would have made the wrong mistake at the wrong time (cough, TCU, cough), it would have rendered our incredible coaching and defense void. Instead, he rose to the occasion when it mattered most. That's winning football. That's worth a Top 5 pick any year.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:04 PM ^
Your initial post you cited JJ's record as a starter as a data point that he should be a top five pick.
Stetson Bennett.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:18 PM ^
It is 100% a data point. But I didn't disrespect or diminish the rest of the team. That's nonsense.
If Stetson Bennett had JJ's physical tools, I would have very much supported him being drafted higher. I admit my post lacked nuance, but I completely stand by the fact that JJ McCarthy led us, a team that never ranks in the Top 10 in the talent indexes like UGA, to the first 15-0(!) National Championship in B1G history. I'm still in awe. I will always be in awe. JJ belongs on the Michigan football Mt. Rushmore.
JJ is the most accomplished QB in Michigan history. He's got a cannon arm. He's super athletic. His decision-making has improved each year. He has NFL height. He has NFL mechanics. He now apparently has NFL weight. He's a Top 5 pick.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:35 PM ^
In fairness though that was the only data point you stated. And you are right, JJ did lead us, along with Blake, the D and the OL. He certainly helped us get to where we did, and should very much be on the Michigan football Mt. Rushmore (along with Blake, Hutchinson, Brady Woodson, etc) but that doesn't mean he's a top 5 NFL pick.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:51 PM ^
He's a top 5 pick (which he wasn't at the start of the draft process) because IN ADDITION to leading us, along with Blake, along with the OL, along with the D, and along with the coaching staff, he has NFL arm talent, size, and intangibles. JJ showed out bigtime at both the Combine and the Michigan Pro Day.
By writing 27-1/15-0, I admittedly did not include some of the obvious context, but still, a Michigan starting QB with those records is mind-boggling. It should never get old. It should never be diminished. It's an astonishing record given our talent disadvantages against the elite teams. JJ McCarthy led Michigan to a 15-0 National Championship! He played some his best football late in the game, in the Rose Bowl, against freaking Alabama, trailing by a TD in the 4th quarter.
This is not routine stuff. We can't pretend like Tim Tebow or Ken Dorsey or Stetson Bennett ever did the same thing.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:27 PM ^
Winning football teams overwhelming are led by the top QBs. Exceptions are rare.
I don't disagree that QB position is the most important in the NFL , but that's not necessarily the case in college. If we're talking statistics, then JJ is case in point here. He was #34 in passing yards and #36 in passing tds, #6 in completion percentage, and #9 in passing efficiency https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/8. Solid, but not earth shattering by any means, although I'm sure this is not news to anyone on the board. We still went 15-0, because we had all of the other pieces required to be a winning team.
Anyway, if you're arguing that JJ is better than Cade, then I absolutely agree, but I don't think JJ is a top 5 pick at this point, precisely because the QB position is so important in the NFL.
I was curious how predictive those statistics are so I pulled up the NCAA archive pages. Here's five years ago:
Passing Efficiency:
- Tua
- Kyler Murray
- Will Grier
- Dwayne Haskins
- Jake Fromm
Brock Purdy
10. Jordan Love
12. Trevor Lawrence
37. Justin Herbert
65. Joe Burrow
Passing Yards:
- Haskins
- Gardner Minshew
- Murray
- Taylor Cornelius
- Tua
Ryan Finley
14. Love
22. Lawrence
27. Herbert
35. Burrow
Completion Percentage:
- Jack Abraham
- Minshew
- Brent Stockstill
- Haskins
- Tua
Murray
21. Lawrence
31. Love
65. Herbert
79. Burrow
Haskins was the future pro in that group, obviously. I'll grant you Tua, but in general it doesn't look like a great projective method.
Here's ten years ago.
Passing Efficiency:
- Jameis Winston
- Bryce Petty
- Johnny Manziel
- Zach Mettenberger
- Teddy Bridgewater
Tajh Boyd
15. Derek Carr
73. Dak Prescott
83. Jared Goff
Passing Yards:
- Carr
- Sean Mannion
- Connor Halliday
- Bryce Petty
- David Fales
Keith Wenning
8. Manziel
9. Winston
10. Bridgewater
14. Mariota
18. Goff
82. Prescott
Completion Percentage:
- Bridgewater
- Shane Carden
- Manziel
- Adam Kennedy
- Grant Hedrick
Carr
14. Winston
32. Mariota
55. Goff
72. Prescott
Got to be Manziel, right? Or maybe Bridgewater (who admittedly didn't get a chance to prove himself in the NFL).
The laziest "metric" you can toss out there. By this measure, Stetson Bennett should have been a top 5 pick.
Really?
Going 15-0 seemed to be a decent harbinger for Joe Burrow, and he was throwing to generational talents at WR, unlike JJ. But even that's comparing apples to elephants. LSU gets talent we only dream of getting. Without GA winning multiple national championships, Stetson Bennet probably doesn't even get an UDFA invite. You're kind of self-owning yourself without even realizing it.
I am 100% doubling down. I don't care if whiny posters want to pick nits. JJ MF-ing McCarthy led Michigan to the becoming the first and only B1G team in history to post a 15-0 National Championship. If that's a lazy take, I'm freaking Rip Van Winkle.
The accomplishment is mind-boggling. No amount of revisionist history will change this notion. I still can't believe it happened. But it did. JJ was the starting QB. He was clutch at the biggest moments. He learned from past mistakes (TCU). He played team football. He played unselfish football -- see chapter entitled "Penn State Second Half." He took full advantage of our great OL, RBs, TEs, and coaches, like Top 5 picks should do. If you want your QB to play "hero ball," have at it.
Entitled Buckeye slappies and lazy fanboys can obsess over the stats. A QB's job, above everything else, is to win games. JJ wins. Full stop. Throughout its history, Michigan has arguably had several more talented overall teams than 2021-2023. None of them went 15-0. Some of them didn't even win the conference. NFL franchises use Top 5 picks on franchise QBs. NFL franchises want Lombardi trophies. JJ is a Top 5 pick.
Going back to the 90s, here's all the starting QBs for undefeated national champions.
- Gino Torretta
- Billy Joe Hobert
- Jay Barker
- Charlie Ward
- Tommie Frazier
- Brook Berringer
- Brian Griese
- Scott Frost
- Tee Martin
- Chris Weinke
- Josh Heupel
- Ken Dorsey
- Craig Krenzel
- Matt Leinart
- Vince Young
- Brian Johnson, if you want to count '08 Utah as an NC.
- Greg McIlroy
- Cam Newton
- Jameis Winston
- McKenzie Milton, if you want to count UCF.
- Trevor Lawrence
- Joe Burrow
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Stetson Bennett
- JJ McCarthy
25 quarterbacks, two Super Bowl appearances/losses among them (Griese backing up Elway doesn't count). Burrow and Tua have been really good when healthy, Newton's peak value was high, a few others were at least above-replacement starters at some point. But it's not an impressive list of NFL careers on the whole. It's true that the list gets better as you go, QB play is more important now and the last ten are a lot better than the first ten. But the only drafting franchise that's never had any buyer's remorse is Cincinnati and that might change if we see more partial seasons out of Joe.
Is it my imagination or has this group had worse injury luck than normal? Griese, Tua, Burrow, Newton's Lisfranc and shoulder and a long list of minor stuff, Lawrence already a labrum tear and multiple knee/ankle sprains. Maybe any random collection of quarterbacks would look the same.
But Scott Frost’s says he was a catch.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:21 AM ^
Yes.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:14 PM ^
I wouldn't. I think JJ has a lot of unknown as far a QB in an NFL offense. QB in the NFL is largely based on quickly reading complex defenses, and throwing with accuracy. While he may well be capable of combining those two things, certainly the former quality is an unknown in his history as he simply wasn't part of such a scheme. He'd be a late first-rounder to me.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:21 AM ^
Who knows? I think he could be a very successful QB, but I also think that largely depends on where he ends up.
Would Patrick Mahommes have been Patrick Mahommes without Andy Reid?
I care a lot less about how high J.J. is selected than where he goes. So much of a QB’s potential depends on what’s around them—players, coaches, GM, and more. I just hope he goes to a place that can maximize his potential.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:32 AM ^
these French QBs are highly coach-dependant
April 16th, 2024 at 11:43 AM ^
That's an interesting point. If I were a QB prospect, I'd rather get the chance to work with a hall of fame level coach, like a John/Jim Harbaugh or an Andy Reid, then someone who just happens to be a head coach currently. Looking at the top 10 picks, and nobody outside of Jim looks to be that kind of coach. JJ would probably be better suited to go 12 to the Broncos and get to learn under Sean Payton, than some of the other options.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:50 AM ^
Agree - 100%.
Whoever goes to the Patriots is doomed. If JJ ends up in Minneapolis he will more than likely succeed.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:08 PM ^
I think this conflates two different questions. Is JJ worthy of a Top 5 pick. I say "YES!!!" Will JJ risk being a Top 5 bust of he goes to an organization filled with clowns? Sadly, the answer is also probably "yes."
I agree that it doesn't matter to us/Michigan fans where he goes unless we are fans of an NFL team that needs a QB. But I want every member of Team 144 to be drafted as high as possible
April 16th, 2024 at 11:23 AM ^
Yes, IMO he is. He has the size, accuracy, mobility, ability to look off safeties and a great attitude and work ethic.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:24 AM ^
I don’t know that he’s top 5 or even top 10. It really depends on if a team needs a QB NOW or can wait 2-3 years. I don’t think it’s fair to use the term ‘project’ but he needs to learn and grow for a couple years.
Outsiders points to his TCU game as a bad game because of the INTs, but that was one of his best games as far as showing his arm talent IMO.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:33 PM ^
This is what i felt. Clearly a special talent but there were times where it didn't feel he quite ready. I was hoping he'd end up at Minnesota behind Cousins or Denver behind Wilson (which clearly is not the case for either anymore)
April 16th, 2024 at 11:25 AM ^
I think it's so difficult to determine if QB is going to have NFL success because it's so dependent on mental ability. Two QBs with the same physical traits can have vastly different NFL careers. Based on what we've seen from JJ mentally, I think he has a great chance to succeed and is worthy of a top 5 pick but it's always a crap shoot the can get a GM fired in a hurry.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:26 AM ^
Yes.
1)- high ceiling with excellent physical attributes. (Needs to learn not to take hits; "this ain't hockey"). Evade skills are excellent and sometimes must just throw it away.
2)-Played under center and shotgun. Ran pro style per Jim. None of the other top guys did according to pundits.
3)-Did it in big games and played up to the competition with lapses along the way any QB can make. (see past Lions victories over Brady and Mahomes).
Minnesota is a good fit but, dammit, against my Lions.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:08 PM ^
Yes. This post gets it.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:27 AM ^
My completely biased opinion says yes, he has the physical tools and intangibles to be a top 5 QB. However, as important as the position is in itself you need the right system and players and organization around you to really thrive in the NFL.
So it all really depends on where he goes, how they can help him develop and what sort of talent is around him. For his sake, I hope he goes to a situation where he can sit for a couple years and learn and grow, a la Aaron Rodgers.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:29 AM ^
Well if anyone cares or has time to check my posting history I've always said he will be the best QB in this draft when all is said and done. (got killed on this site for saying that before the NFL guru's were) No one has the combination of knowledge/experience running a pro offense, processing speed, arm talent, arm strength, mobility, agility, pocket presence, the ability to extend plays and connect downfield, the ability to run for chunks, most importantly he is a proven winner and has intangibles. So yes, I think NFL GM's will see all of that and I think he will be a Patriot. Even though he won't be the first QB taken, after 6 years in the league, he will be on the best career path and have the most success.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:31 AM ^
Who the hell knows and by that I mean every single fan, coach & NFL scout in the world.
If there's one thing the NFL has proven, beyond a shadow of reasonable doubt, is that they dont know sweet dick-all about drafting QBs. Nobody. Look at the drafts over the past few years years alone
2018: Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen & then Jackson (oops, the last guy turned out pretty good. First two? Not as much)
2019: Trubinski and then Mahomes (yeah, one of the best QBs of all time behind Mitch makes sense)
2021: Lawrence, Wilson & Lance (the generational QB draft according to experts. NOT.)
2023: Bryce (mini me) over Stroud.
So do I want him to succeed? Absofuckinglutely. Do I think he will? I have no idea. And neither does anybody else.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:06 PM ^
This is a great point, but it's complicated by the further question of fit. JaMarcus Russell (for example) was probably always going to be a massive bust, but would some of these other guys have looked different on a different team (with a different coach, GM, supporting cast, etc.)? My guess is at least some of them would.
It's tough because as a fan, we're conflicted. Not surprisingly a big part of us wants our guys to go as high as possible, but on the flipside, we also want them to go to teams where they'll be likely to succeed...
I had no issue at the time that the BEARS had Tributtsky #1 on their board. However trading all that they did to move up 1 spot to 3 and pass on Deshaun Watson being there at 4 and keeping the 1st round pick will never make sense to me.
I said this at the time and will forever in hindsight.
BEARS have to go Caleb Williams at 1 but if Washington gave up a first round pick next year and a 2 now to move up for him I would grab that in a heartbeat.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:31 AM ^
I feel like people who are horrified that JJ would be a first round pick, let alone top 5, have the wrong standard.
You have to have a QB. The number of generational, transformative QBs that exist are, by definition, exceedingly rare. So if I can get someone I project to be a top half of the league QB on a rookie contract who I think I can win with provided that I am able to build a competent team around him, then I jump at that. If I think the only way I can compete in the league is by having Patrick Mahomes and that's who I'm waiting for, then why am I even in the NFL?
April 16th, 2024 at 11:33 AM ^
I'm not sold that any of the top 4 QBs in this class are actually going to be high-level NFL QBs (i.e. multiple pro bowls and guys who can seriously carry a team to a championship without significant help around them), but I think McCarthy's floor (along with Drake May's) feels the highest. I heard him referred to as a more athletic, stronger Kirk Cousins, which is maybe a bit tongue-in-cheek but also not a bad comp. An accurate guy who's better out of the pocket and is solid reading the defense will get you pretty far in the NFL, and I do think the (relative) lack of downfield throws compared to some of the other guys has led to over-analysis of his attempts compared to, say, Williams or Daniels who threw a ton more and so their mistakes get more lost in the wash. Doesn't mean McCarthy is perfect or that he doesn't have real question marks - his lack of touch on some throws is a real thing he'll have to address in the NFL, and he doesn't have the type of rocket arm that lets you get away with some of the throws he tried in college because of the improved defensive playmakers.
He's not afraid to throw in the middle of the field, which is something you have to be willing to do in the NFL, and he's clearly a smart guy who can work within the offense while also making plays off-script. That's something a lot of teams can live with at QB especially if you give him playmakers and don't ask him to throw 35-40 times to win each game. Stroud in Houston is a good example of a team that didn't leave their QB out there to carry them offensively alone, and so he was able to play within the offense with some confidence while also freelancing when he had to.
In reality, the NFL draft almost never goes purely on talent or ability because if it did you'd likely see a number of the WRs, DTs, secondary, etc. go far earlier than they are. But in a league where QB is king then yeah, McCarthy is a guy who's going to get drafted "too early" based on objective metrics but I'd certainly want as a QB if I needed to draft one early. Like, he's better than basically any QB from 2 years ago's draft and outside of Stroud I like him more than anyone from last year's class.