Will a player set another UM single season record?
A topic to prepare for the 2023 season. Will a player set another UM single season record?
Last year we all saw our favorite kicker Jake Moody set a single season record for FGs made. The year before that Aidan set a UM single season record with 14 sacks.
This year we obviously return some phenomenal talent and have a relatively weak schedule allowing for some big numbers to be posted. Listed below are some current single season records at UM:
Last year, JJ had 208 completions for 2719 yards and 22 TDs along with 306 yards rushing. As Shea Patterson and Jake Rudock were both near the record, Harbaugh's offense shows that it can produce remarkable passing seasons. JJ's 22 TDs were good enough for #6 while his yards were came in at #8, 10 yards behind 1986 Jim Harbaugh.
Blake netted 1463 yards with 18 TDs. That was good enough for #7 in TDs and #8 in yards despite missing the last 3 games.
I don't think Blake sees nearly as many carries this year so I think this will limit his total yards particularly with a healthy Edwards and a bevy of other backs. Nevertheless, I think he may be given lots of goal line opportunities. So, he could break the 26 rushing TDs.
If Blake and company run less, this should give JJ more opportunities in the passing game. Completions, passing yards and passing TDs are all within reach with passing TDs the easiest record to break. CJ Stroud had 41 last year. Joe Burrow had 60 in his Heisman season. Eclipsing 25 seems very achievable.
Question for the board is which record(s) do you think will fall in 2023?
August 22nd, 2023 at 6:53 AM ^
Not sure about a player. But, I like the thought of a team record.. number of victories in a season. Fifteen is a really nice number…
August 22nd, 2023 at 7:54 AM ^
And along the way UM becomes the first team to hit 1000 wins. Nice!
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:16 AM ^
Here's hoping the defense will break the record for safeties in a single game, which currently stands at 4.
August 22nd, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
Here's hoping it is against OSU.
August 22nd, 2023 at 6:58 AM ^
Roman Wilson.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:15 AM ^
Justin Feagin
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:37 AM ^
LEEEERRRROOOY JEEENNNKKKINNS
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:46 AM ^
Logged in for the upvote.
"God damn it, Leroy!"
August 22nd, 2023 at 3:00 PM ^
Mike Jones?
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:46 AM ^
If JJ is going to throw for a bunch of yardage and TDs, he'll need an accomplice. It would be awesome to see Roman regularly run past defenders for long TDs.
And that would open the floodgates for the rest of the offense ala DeVonta Smith.
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:06 AM ^
Wilson will catch a few bombs... Edwards probably a couple on wheel routes or other fun slot stuff.
But I think the money makers are going to be Loveland and Barner in terms of TDs. In fact I'd take either vs the field in terms of our reception TD leaders
August 22nd, 2023 at 10:09 AM ^
Darrius Cornelius Johnson
August 22nd, 2023 at 7:05 AM ^
- 270 completions would have been 24th in FBS last year.
- 3331 passing yards would have been 21st
- 25 passing TDs would have been 25th
- 1818 rushing yards would have been 1st
- 26 rushing TDs would have been 1st (by a long shot)
- 97 receptions would have been 5th
- 1373 receiving yards would have been 2nd
- 19 receiving TDs would have been 1st
I'll stop there as CFB reference doesn't track total offense or individual defensive stats.
It's no surprise the passing ones are at first glance the most in reach.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:43 AM ^
Interesting. Thanks for sharing this! I would have thought JJ had no chance of breaking any of the QB records but now I have more optimism that he actually could break more than 1.
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:36 AM ^
Yeah Michigan's single season passing records are a hilariously low bar in the modern game. A lot of other schools crush our passing TDs and passing yards records on a yearly basis.
I'm not complaining because as we saw last year our running game was a steamroller that dominates time of possession and takes advantage of defenses that are all focused on stopping pass happy offenses. But if Harbaugh wanted to air it out more our passing records should be easily achievable
Edit: also, part of the problem is that Harbaugh doesn't let our stars rack up 500 yards and 6 TDs against cupcakes. He's content to have JJ throw 10 passes for 100 yards then play 20 different guys at QB and RB for the rest of the game
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:41 AM ^
His completion percentage was 64.6% last year. To get 270 completions at that rate, he'd need 418 attempts, or 28 att/game over 15 games. He averaged 23 att/game and his median was 24. It's not unreasonable to think he might get up that high, but the hope is that he's only playing half a game multiple games this season, so that's going to weigh him down. I think it's more likely that he'll get yards and touchdowns.
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:54 AM ^
I’d expect him to have a higher completion percentage in the first halves of those potential blowout games, and hopefully a general increase in completion percentage in Big Ten games now that he’s in year 3, but I think your point still stands that the yards and touchdowns records will be more likely to be broken.
August 22nd, 2023 at 10:49 AM ^
It's hard to get a lot of completions when every pass goes for a touchdown. I don't think he has a chance. Or a handoffs going for touchdowns.
Obviously joking, but I do think this offense is so explosive with so many players that can take it to the house, that long sustained drives may not be as common as other seasons. I'd think passing TDs and Total passing yards are going to be more reasonable numbers to go after.
August 22nd, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
I can see JJ breaking the single season record for passing TDs. That seems the most likely in my opinion.
August 22nd, 2023 at 2:08 PM ^
My immediate thought was that the passing TD record was the weakest. While I was correct, completions and yards are pretty much at the same level. Since teams will probably load up to stop the run deep in the red zone, I still think the 25 TD’s is the most likely one to fall. Yards/completions probably only come into play if the schedule ends up being stronger than expected.
August 22nd, 2023 at 7:08 AM ^
Not sure but I do know we could never set another school record but win championships and I would be 100% okay with that.
Unfortunately, I don't think Michigan has a great chance at contending after this season.
August 22nd, 2023 at 7:40 AM ^
All you had to do was stop after the first paragraph but you just couldn't help yourself.
August 22nd, 2023 at 10:08 AM ^
I just don't see things through maize-colored glasses.
August 22nd, 2023 at 1:23 PM ^
better than seeing things through filth-covered glasses dennis
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:03 AM ^
2024 doesn't look like a year we'll contend given the mass turnover we're gonna experience (and I am not sold on Jadyn Davis as a viable option as a true frosh), but after that I don't see why we don't pick it back up to '21 - '23 levels. Even if Jim leaves for the NFL and I really think he's gone after this year.
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:26 AM ^
Agreed, I think 2023 is The Year and then 2024 might be more like a 2 or 3-loss season given likely questions at QB, plus losses on both sides of the trenches
But hopefully given recruiting and momentum we'll be right back in the thick of it
If i'm reading your post right, I disagree that Harbaugh is gone after this year. I think he'll be here for a while
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^
Honestly I think the 2024 team will be better than most give it credit for. They wont be a national championship contender but they could easily contend for the big ten championship. QB will be a question mark but its still very possible that JJ comes back for year 4 and if he doesn't Michigan will be an attractive spot for a 1 year transfer QB (like Sam Hartman at Notre Dame this year). I like Jadyn Davis long term but agree that he probably isn't going to be ready year 1. Not many Qbs are, even the extremely elite ones.
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:07 AM ^
“Unfortunately, I don't think Michigan has a great chance at contending after this season.”
Do you mean next season, in the Harbaugh era, in our lifetimes?
Sure we will lose a lot of talent but Harbaugh is developing players and recruiting at a high level.
OL and DL are deep with young talent which is your foundation and there is plenty of other talent on the roster.
August 22nd, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
Oh no, after 3 straight years of contending for a national championship, we may not do that the next year. #FireEverybody
August 22nd, 2023 at 7:21 AM ^
Let's not say that Harbaughs offense produces remarkable passing seasons In this era. Caleb Williams is going to best JJ's stats last year after his first 7 games.
August 22nd, 2023 at 7:47 AM ^
I'd say passing yards is most attainable given the gap between JJ's performance and the actual record. Also only takes a fair bit of projection for JJ's growth and expansion of the playbook. The issue will probably be salting games away on the ground in the second half.
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:09 AM ^
I'd say passing yards is most attainable given the gap between JJ's performance and the actual record.
Let's see... JJ threw 22 TDs last year and the record is 25
He threw for 2,719 yards and the record is 3,331
That's about double the relative gap (passing yard record is 1.22x JJ's 2022 season, tds is 1.13x his 2022 season)
I'd say your conclusion should be that the TD record will be the easiest to break
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:02 AM ^
The team looks so balanced that a great season might yield no individual records.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:03 AM ^
IIRC, Tom Curtis is C.J. Carr's "other" grandfather. No wonder he's a highly rated QB.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:20 AM ^
Wow. You are correct. That's quite a pedigree and great genes.
Upon looking Tom up, I see that he was a QB in HS and played QB as a freshman before the staff converted him to safety in 1967.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:17 AM ^
I agree that Blake will have fewer carries this year, as he should. I also think that our yards/carry for all the running backs will be substantially higher if we improve our passing game. I envision a 3-level passing game (slots for slants, TEs for seams between LB and safety zones, and Roman Wilson terrorizing the deep routes. Gonna be a pair of running backs salivating at spreading out defenses.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:17 AM ^
I agree with passing TDs being the easiest to break. I think JJ will, tbh. The wildcard is how much he'll actually play in the non-conf part of the schedule
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:58 AM ^
I think the playoff game last year will impact our approach this year. JJ and the receivers must provide a balanced attack for us to get to the pinnacle.
Of course, if they play all 15 games, that will provide more opportunities, too.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:21 AM ^
With a known quantity like Harbaugh's offense and how many returning players we have on that side of the ball, I would be hard pressed to say any record will get broken on offense. Passing TDs is the most likely but I still don't see it happening. I think the most likely to get broken could possibly be tackles or interceptions, but even that will be tough. Michigan just isn't built to rack up stats. They're built to win.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:31 AM ^
Will Johnson may set a record for passes NOT thrown his way
August 22nd, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^
It’s a little surprising how much Woodson was still targeted in ‘97 despite having been an All-American in ‘96. He had 7 interceptions and 9 PBUs in ‘97.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:31 AM ^
He's not getting 26.
If jj doesn't break some qb records, then I think the offense fails short. Our passing records are very mediocre
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:11 AM ^
You would think with this defense the offense would have plenty of opportunity with the football.
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:13 AM ^
We don't know if our D will be great. Even if great, we don't know that that translates into turnovers, which I think give cheap and easy TDs often.
But either way, I think there are enough weapons that none of them will really have exceptional numbers over the others... 2 great RBs, 2 great TEs, a mix of WRs, BUT the one constant in that is JJ. I could see 6 rushing and 30 passing TDs for him. Would love more. Keep him healthy.
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:34 AM ^
We don't know if our D will be great
Nothing is for sure but I think it's beyond reasonable to say our D will be great. We return so much from a good if not great (depends on exactly what you mean by "great") defense last year
Really the only position I think you would say will be worse than last year is CB2
Interior DL is probably an upgrade, despite losing Mazi. Which is kinda crazy.
Edge play will be at worse a push, but I'd bet it's better, particularly in terms of pass rush
Safeties are the same so they should be better. Will Johnson will be the best CB1 in a minute. Sainristil returns at nickle with a full offseason in the same scheme
LBs return with Barrett fully at LB, Colson a year older, and Hausmann pushing them.
It's going to be a very fun defense to watch and we should suffocate almost everybody not named OSU
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:17 AM ^
i guess my standards have been raised... im thinking, will our D be great against bama/georgia/usc/fsu.
August 22nd, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
I don't think any D in CFB will be great against high powered offenses in this era. The days of suffocating good offenses are over. Best you can do is slow them down
August 22nd, 2023 at 3:28 PM ^
We probably have the top position groups at DL, LB, and DB in the Big Ten with returning players with improved play across the board compared to last years team with the only question mark being CB 2.
I think our DL and front seven are going to be elite and raise hell with opposing offenses. I would expect this defense to perform at a very high level.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:33 AM ^
I think McCarthy has a shot at setting the new record for completions, passing yards and passing TDs. Oddly, his chances would be better if UM were playing a better non-conference schedule as there is a pretty good chance he will be spending most of the second half of those non-conference games watching from the bench.
The fact that 25 TD passes in a season is the record at UM is just...sad.
I love Air Raid offenses and reeeeeaaallllly wish UM would switch to one some day. Sadly, I do not expect that to ever happen.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:36 AM ^
Michael Barrett will set a record for most positions played in a single game - all of them.
He will also coach special teams on the same day and chastise himself for not missing a block.