Who Did FAU Beat These Past Two Years?
I was researching FAU's performance over the past two years to see truly how good they were outside of the Final Four run. I came away impressed.
This season, the Owls marquee win was against No. 2 seed/No.5 Kenpom team Arizona 96-95 in double OT. The Owls next-best win was against the 12-ranked and No. 39 Kenpom team Texas A&M. In that game, they put up 96 points.
Needless to say, this team scores. In a loss against Illinois, the Owls scored 89 points - and while everyone scores that much against Illinois, you still have to make your shots. They also beat No. 56 Kenpom ranked Virginia Tech 84-50, and dropped 90 on Charleston who won its conference. Out of conference SOS was decent with additional wins against Butler and Loyola.
The Owls split a pair against tournament team UAB and lost its only game to USF (those were the next best teams in a decent AAC). If you are like me and can't keep up with realignment, the ACC features notable basketball programs like Memphis as well as Temple and Wichita State who have fallen off a bit.
The top of the conference this year was USF/FAU/Charlotte/UAB/Memphis.
Now lets look at 2023. You'll remember they made a weird Final Four, but do you remember who they played? I didn't.
The 2023 regular season kicked off with a win at Florida. The out of conference was much weaker last year than this year. They won the C-USA regular season, and tournament with title game win over UAB (a team that followed them to the AAC).
NCAA first-round win over Memphis, then they beat 16-seed FDU before taking out No.4 ranked Tennessee, No. 3 ranked Kansas State before losing to San Diego State by 1 point.
Conclusion: FAU isn't a P5 school, but this isn't a MAC schedule either. In the past two seasons, FAU was 5-2 against P5 (Ole Miss in '23 and Illinois in '24).I hope Dusty brings that type of win percentage against high-programs at UM, as well as the scoring. Fun fact: FAU was 23rd in adjusted offense on Ken Pom in what could be considered an "upper middle class major" (I just made that up).
March 24th, 2024 at 12:50 PM ^
Wait a minute, I thought the only game they've played in the last 2 seasons was vs #9 seed Northwestern?
No, that's just the only game that matters to the MGoMiserable
aka: les miserables
Has Javert managed to fire Warde yet?
First a prison guard, and then a police inspector, his character is defined by his legalist tendencies and lack of empathy for criminals of all forms. In the novel, he becomes obsessed with the pursuit and punishment of the protagonist Jean Valjean after his violation of parole.
no mention of canning warde in there, so no, not as of yet.
I've learned that to a subset of UM fans the only games UM football have played the past 3 years are MSU and UGa in 2021 and TCU in 2022. So it only makes sense that the NW game by FSU would be the one to focus on.
Don't forget, we've lost the off-season to OSU so far as well
March 24th, 2024 at 12:52 PM ^
Consistent scoring would be a welcome change of pace. Bring it Dusty!
March 24th, 2024 at 12:54 PM ^
Welcome Dusty May! Thanks to coach B for playing a big part in him coming to UM! Now let’s see who is staying, who is leaving and what FAU players will head north with coach May. Go Blue!
March 24th, 2024 at 12:56 PM ^
He may be a great coach. But with this small sample size, how much was coaching and how much was the players he had last year and this year (same team) compared to all his other years?
Edit: I am just asking the question. He has winning seasons yes. But I was looking for coaching ability insights which Bronxblue answered below.
FAU had 3 wining season ever prior to May, all of which were under 3 different coaches, none of which directly preceded him. He never had a losing season there. This doesn’t appear to be a coach having success at a small school with advantages over its peers.
Took a team that struggled to get to double digit wins to a team that never finished below .500.. Responsible for 2 of their 3 tournament bids, one being an at large bid ( pretty impressive for the AAC )
I am not criticizing him. It’s a question. Coaches can win at small programs by only getting some better players to switch. Especially now with the portal.
Beilein was known as a master tactician. Basketball people on here might have watched Dusty’s games and could see how much might be coaching. Some of the other coaches were known for their offensive or defensive tactics and philosophies. I didn’t find anything on May. Just asking.
You can read Dylan's writeup at UMHoops where he goes into detail about May, but the gist is that he has an offensive system that is pretty talent-independent (they shoot more 3s than 2s) and his defense is about forcing shots in isolation via drop coverage and not letting teams get out into transition.
Also, FAU is not a magnet for high level talent, so he's been doing this with guys he develops via recruiting. It's not a flash-in-the-pan team nor one that just overwhelms with NIL and talent acquisition.
Perfect answer to my original question. Thanks Bronxblue. And thanks for actually reading my question. You deserve multiple upvotes.
What constitutes a large sample size for you? If a guy has 20 years as a head coach, then he’s probably in his late 50s or early 60s and likelier to retire than to be at 〽️ long. More importantly, I think having been an assistant at P5 for a long time, then gone out and had a sustained level of success for more than half a decade at one place is pretty clearly a good indicator of May’s ability to coach and build a program.
May was the number 1 guy most experts saw available and ready to move up/on to a better job.
Dude, he walked into broken barn of a basketball program. He told a reporter he nearly panicked when he got a good look at what he got himself into and wanted to renege on his contract. Fortunately, his wife calmed him down and encouraged him to continue and the rest is history.
He told a reporter he nearly panicked when he got a good look at what he got himself into and wanted to renege on his contract. Fortunately, his wife calmed him down
Wow that’s a great story victor2000. Hadn’t heard that. Where did you find that?
Edit: found it from last year’s final four. It’s a great story. https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/dusty-may-wanted-to-quit-hours-after-signing-fau-contract-now-hes-coached-owls-to-improbable-final-four-run/
March 24th, 2024 at 12:57 PM ^
While that was interesting, I'd also like to know how many players from there transfer in. We have less than half a team.
Thanks to the COVID year, almost all his players are going to be graduate students with one year of eligibility left. Including Johnell Davis, his best player, who played HS ball in Gary, IN.
My question is if they get a "transformational not transactional" waiver bc they are our coach's former players? Because they got a number of NIL deals after the Final Four publicity (which kept them from being poached last offseason). Does Michigan pony up the NIL to entice them to jump ship, or is that not the kind of recruiting that Michigan is into?
I wish we would stop saying transformational not transactional. This isn't 1975. It's transformational and transcational.
I think Northwestern is more into the "transcational" experience. UK, and Nova, too.
March 24th, 2024 at 12:58 PM ^
Good god look at FAU’s predecessors to May:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Florida_Atlantic_Owls_men%27s_basketball_head_coaches
The man might know how to build a program. Also, a really good fit imo
It's such a small sample size that it's hard to tell if he coached them up, or just hit on a good group of players. Basically all his top players have been together 3 or more years. Before that group, he was bad -- and he didn't stay there long enough to see what would happen after that group moved on. Obviously, he assembled that team and deserves credit for doing so, but he also assembled some bad ones prior.
Is it that hard to take things in context? As many have pointed out, FAU was a dogshit program before he arrived. They have like 10 winning seasons in their entire history and May is responsible for 6 of them.
Before that group, he was bad
I don't think that's a fair assessment. May replaced Michael Curry (YTMC), who posted these records:
9-20 (2-16 CUSA)
8-25 (5-13)
10-20 (6-12)
12-19 (6-12)
May then posted these records:
17-16 (8-10)
17-15 (8-10)
13-10 (7-5)
19-15 (11-7)
35-4 (18-2)
25-9 (14-4 AAC)
Every one of his seasons was better than any of Curry's, both overall and in conference.
People are really underestimating taking over an FAU program with no history of success and turning them into a solid squad let alone a final four caliber one. The 3 years before May got to FAU they were 8-25, 10-20 and 12-19. May took over and never had a losing season at a school with no real basketball identity.
Pretending like he “assembled some bad ones” is pretty disingenuous when you look at what he walked into at FAU. Yeah they underperformed a little this year but him even having FAU at the level they are currently at is impressive in it of itself.
Like any coaching hire time will tell how this one works out but holding his early years at FAU against him, when he is building up a complete nothing basketball program, is ridiculous. Especially when it was an immediate improvement over their previous coach.
Everything about this statement reeks of pessimism/misinformation. You discredit him for identifying and recruiting his players ("just hit on") with whom he has the most success. You discredit him for improving the performance of the players he inherited in his first three years. As for your statement that "he didn't stay there long enough", he didn't stay WHERE long enough? He has only ever been a head coach at FAU, where this was his 6th year. Bizarre take.
I'm not saying it's a bad hire, but I don't think it's a long enough resume to pound the table and say it's a good hire.
Porter Moser made a similar turnaround and Final4 run built around one strong group at Loyola, and it's translated to about a .550 record at Oklahoma.
Or, maybe he's a prodigy like Brad Stevens. I have no idea.
OTOH Dan Hurley and Nate Oats were at smaller programs, had similar winning percentages at those programs (no Final Fours), and are now doing very well at bigger programs. There’s no sure thing but for every Porter Moser there’s plenty of success stories.
I prefer to pound the table here.
Moser is not a great comparison. Moser had a pretty nondescript career for a long time, including getting fired from one job (Illinois State) and having to go back to being an assistant, until he achieved a breakthrough in his 14th year as a head coach.
May's situation is very different. He inherited a program that was seriously down in the dumps, immediately got them to a higher level, started posting winning conference records from year three on and then had a massive breakthrough in year five. This, at a commuter school with apparently terrible facilities and almost no history of success.
You could argue that his track record isn't all that long, which is true enough, but that was also going to be the case for pretty much anyone we were targeting.
The most refreshing thing about this hire is people wont be able to use "but those werent his players". Win, lose or draw this is his squad and his roster. Will be nice that people wont be able to make shit up.
They'll be his players, but it's a lot to ask a coach to effectively build a roster from scratch in one offseason and be competitive. Fans are going to need to be patient next season.
Now you know fans not go be patient. May got 3 years to turn this team into a final four team.
We won't know until he gets in here for a few years and portals in, recruits and we see what the product is down the road. I hope people who will say be patient now are indeed patient when actual games happen as next year we truly are a flaming piece of shit at this moment and even with transfers we are probably at a spot to be thrilled with a .500 record.. JB was 10-22 year 1 (Harris & Sims) and 15-17 year 3. Granted no transfer portal but hard to build a winner almost solely through that either. There is literally no base of NBA or sweet 16 type talent on the team as we speak. Spare me Burnett.
Most hires look promising upon hire due to former success (otherwise they wouldn't be hired) and some succeed, some flame out. Holtmann looked like a great signing. That flamed out. Same for Dusty - who knows. As I wrote elsewhere the one thing I like is after massive success last year his players didn't all portal out for bigger BMWs. So that's something. We can cherry pick great things for any hire.
I do hope he gets a "defensive coordinator" type on staff as while the offense is fun, they leave a lot to be desired defensively.
I hope people who will say be patient now are indeed patient when actual games happen as next year
May’s won exactly zero games for us since he arrived! This is a dogshit hire. Fire May and Warde!
Hey Mercury, thanks for that great catch against Virginia in '95 and thanks for the breakdown, indeed it's an impressive feat what he accomplished at FAU.
Hopefully he can bring that to Michigan and recruit well. Please go and get Darius Acuff who transferred to IMG and Trey McKenney from OLSM for the '25 class since he loves guard play.
I've been a harsh critic of Warde but he did well to act so quickly so kudos for that, that's how I want an AD to act....quickly and decisively.
But the real question is: who would win in a fight? A wolverine or an owl?
Pretty sure this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolverine_(character) beats this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Owl_(Marvel_Comics) though
It depends on who falls asleep first. If it’s the wolverine, the owl swoops down and rips his throat out with his talons. If it’s the owl, he falls to his death and the wolverine does what wolverines do: eat carrion and parade around the forest showing off the dismembered head of his vanquished foe.
Go, Blue! Come, May!
No hand-wringing over this hire from me. I don't think that I had a problem with any candidate on some of the reported lists. I'm just pleased to have a coach who has coaching experience in the college game, and a few years of head coaching already under his belt.
May has built a team, and he's had success with the team that he built. He has a philosophy, and an identity, that he's implemented. He meets the baseline for what we should want in a coach. Having turned around a program and making a Final Four... that's gravy. Go get 'em, Dusty! Go Blue!
I wasn't a big fan of Dusty May of all the possible search options, but he obviously struck gold with his roster the past 2 seasons. And you don't win at that level without implementing a good system & developing players.
His first 3 years were basically average, barely above 0.500. So I think it's fair for folks to question his coaching based solely on the lack of long-term results.
But I like the fact he's been an assistant at major programs, a bunch of other major coaches have vouched for him (most importantly Beilein), and he had success at a program without major NIL.
I wonder if we're looking at a multi-year rebuild, aka Minnesota with Ben Johnson? Or will Coach May get the train back on the tracks sooner? Time will tell.
I don't think it's fair to question May's coaching ability by looking at his first 3 years at FAU. You called those years 'average'. But, average for who? Surely not FAU. It's important to understand where he started with FAU. From where he started, I'd say his first 3 years at FAU are impressive.
It's not like he had a lot to sell recruits at FAU. It's apparent the May can coach. The only real question is can he succeed at a school with higher expectations, and much stiffer competition.
His first 3 years were nothing remarkable, and certainly don't hint at a future Final Four run, ascent to taking the Michigan job. Just be honest with yourself.
I think the key thing for me is he could win at Michigan with his current FAU roster. Maybe not Big Ten Championships but he would do well. Its fair to think he should be able to upgrade his roster but even at his current level we would be doing pretty well.
EDIT: wrong thread.
Go Coach Dusty!
Anyone know his record in games decided by 5 points or less? Hopefully better than 2-22, or whatever JH's was/
Personally the thing that turned me around on May (not that I was ever negative on him), was when I realized how truly awful FAU was before him. Like look at the records of all the coaches before he got there, wholy smokes. At the very least this guy knows how to build a program from nothing.