Which schools demise (other than OSU) could propel Michigan football forward?

Submitted by canzior on March 10th, 2021 at 11:46 AM

I think everyone except Sparty fans are aware that the decline of Michigan football and subsequently PSU contributed directly to their decade or so of success.  I think Texas struggling (as well as A&M to the SEC) has helped make the other Texas schools better, Baylor, Houston, TCU and now SMU.  UCF seemed to be the biggest beneficiary of the oddly simultaneous dip in all 3 P5 Florida schools. 

So leaving OSU aside for a couple reasons. #1 it's too easy an answer. #2 OSU not being as well might win M more games, but might not directly lead to an improved product, only improved perception. #3 It's also likely that many recruits who choose OSU are not doing so over Michigan, but over Alabama, LSU, & Clemson.   

Is there a school out that could fall on a decade long losing streak that would benefit Michigan?    

Notre Dame seems to be a school that has a number of kids that had M in their top 3. 

Penn State? 

Michigan State (lol)?

Wisconsin?  

 

mitchewr

March 10th, 2021 at 2:43 PM ^

Not really. We consistently lose to Wisconsin and Penn State and Michigan State despite having the on-paper advantage in virtually every category.

Here’s where we’ve finished as a team in the eastern division every year under Harbaugh:

  • 2015 - 3rd
  • 2016 - 3rd
  • 2017 - 4th
  • 2018 - 1st
  • 2019 - 3rd
  • 2020 - 5th

It’s not like we’re always coming in a close second place every single year and just can’t quite catch OSU. Our problems run deeper than that. Maybe (hopefully) this coaching shakeup will get us to finally solidify that #2 spot where we’re only losing to OSU. I think we have to achieve that first before we can even dream of catching OSU.

JonathanE

March 11th, 2021 at 8:58 AM ^

We consistently lose to Wisconsin and Penn State and Michigan State 

 

2015 - MSU (L) - Penn State (W)
2016 - MSU (W) - Penn State (W) - Wisconsin (W)
2017 -  MSU (L) - Penn State (L) - Wisconsin (L)
2018 - MSU (W) - Penn State (W) - Wisconsin (W)
2019 - MSU (W) - Penn State (L) - Wisconsin (L)
2020 - MSU (L) - Penn State (L) - Wisconsin (L)

MSU 3-3
Penn State 3-3
Wisconsin 2-4

 

mgoblue0970

March 10th, 2021 at 6:39 PM ^

I would suggest that if 1985 SMU were SMU today, they wouldn't have gotten the death penalty either.  

I don't think we'll see another program ever get the death penalty again. 

I'll call your PSU and raise you UNC offering fake classes, with fake grades, and fake transcripts -- not only did they not get the death penalty but they didn't lose their accreditation either.

GoBLUE_SemperFi

March 10th, 2021 at 11:51 AM ^

The entire premise of this question is total cringe.  The idea that Michigan needs some other school to fail, in order for their program to get better, is just not a conversation that I'm interesting in having.  Get better, beat your rivals, win the B1G.  The end.

snarling wolverine

March 10th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^

Well, it's easy to say "get better" but we haven't been as good as OSU currently is since Fritz Crisler was our coach.  That's probably not going to happen anytime soon . . . so yeah, we basically need OSU to stop being a juggernaut.

Or - better yet - push for college football to expand the playoff beyond four teams.  March Madness is fun.  December Madness would be fun too.

oriental andrew

March 10th, 2021 at 1:02 PM ^

Agree with this. Literally the only teams that have been as good as osu in the past decade are Alabama and Clemson (you could make a case from Oklahoma, although they've never won a CFP game).

No team in the Big Ten has been anywhere near their level, although Wisconsin is the closest from a results standpoint (largely b/c they play in the west). And msu in that one aberration of a year is the only other Big Ten team to even make the CFP, and they got destroyed by 'Bama 0-38. 

canzior

March 10th, 2021 at 12:03 PM ^

I don't think it's that Michigan "needs" in the same way MSU "needed" Michigan to struggle to gain regional relevance. However, ebbs and flows happen all the time in college sports and they always impact other schools.  The rise of Cincinnati and persistent Kentucky recruiting hurt MSU as well as Michigan getting better.  

I think something as simple for example as adding 3 or 4 impact players at the right positions would help. Guys that chose other schools who may not have made the same choice had those schools been in the middle of losing. 

Ultimately you can't win every recruiting battle, so the answer isn't as simple as "just recruit better guys" but there are a number of realistic recruiting battles that had they swung the other way, could have been big.  

BlueKoj

March 10th, 2021 at 11:54 AM ^

It is a bitter pill to swallow thinking that UM's ceiling is tied to anyone's demise, but we're at that point with OSU. UM should be a power based solely on it's own abilities and results. Downturns in programs that recruit similarly and play UM regularly likely give everyone around them a bump. There is no one other than OSU that is worth talking about. Every other benefit is fairly general and could apply to a few programs and would benefit many others. Focus on what can be controlled is my preference.

Couzen Rick's

March 10th, 2021 at 11:54 AM ^

Notre Dame/PSU/MSU are the main ones. Schools we most frequently compete directly with for recruits (ND/PSU) and schools who hate us and can spoil our trajectory (MSU)

Ali G Bomaye

March 10th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^

Notre Dame is our primary competitor for top recruits in the upper Midwest who are academically-inclined.

Penn State is our primary competitor in the B1G East for both recruits and standings, other than the school that shall not be named.

I think those are the only two options. Michigan State plays us tough but is irrelevant from a recruiting perspective. Wisconsin isn't even in our division and doesn't recruit the same players.

RXwolverine

March 10th, 2021 at 12:16 PM ^

But those two programs have gone through tougher rebuilds then us and they are still ahead of us. Notre dame as a program is significantly ahead of us despite the fact we beat them 2 seasons ago. The loss to penn state last year kept them ahead of us and they were a train wreck last season.

outsidethebox

March 11th, 2021 at 7:50 AM ^

Ha! That's my job. Otherwise, outside the box and irrelevant are not the same thing. 

Michigan's issue here is reflected by the discussions that routinely take place on this board. There is a clearly held belief, from the administration down through the faithful, that just being "Michigan" is enough to win you an athletic contest. While Michigan is indeed a special place the football program has long been exhibit A of a mindless entitlement that fails to understand the role that effort plays in acquiring success on the field of play. Objectively, according to a physical talent assessment, Michigan should only loose one game per year-2 when they played Alabama. Under this criterion, with Coach Harbaugh Michigan has lost 11, games, nearly 2 per season, that they should have won and are 0-7 against opponents who were better. Effort is the easiest component of improved play to change...teaching kids to play smarter is another matter-you need both to beat a better team. Here, for me, the 0-7 defines this program under Coach Harbaugh. Sometimes the realities are harsh.

Michfan777

March 10th, 2021 at 12:09 PM ^

It’s hard to exclude OSU when OSU is really the only answer.

Sure, Penn State, Wisconsin, ND, and MSU are all acceptable replacement answers, but OSU has a much larger impact on Michigan than all of the other schools combined.

A poor OSU allows Michigan to go into Ohio and poach many more high-end recruits and also allows Michigan to win the matchup much more often. These two factors alone equate to probably a half-dozen or more big ten titles since 2005, and Michigan being a perennial CFP team.

In addition, just having a slightly closer to average OSU team (9-3 - 10-2) that is nearly on equal footing with Michigan probably results in enough wins in the series that Michigan isn’t associated with “those losers cant beat their rival” by everyone/media. That would be a huge mental barrier being removed from the minds of fans, players, and recruits. 

RXwolverine

March 10th, 2021 at 12:13 PM ^

But does the added talent really matter? Has harbaugh proven to you that he can take elite talent and win? I think the talent is there it has always been there. The coaching staff has done a poor job utilizing and developing the talent we have especially at the QB position. Harbaugh has gone through 6-7 QBS and none of them have shown any improvement through their careers. Even the top high school QB in the country needs to be groomed and will improve as he progresses through his career. This staff has not proven capable of doing this

saveferris

March 10th, 2021 at 12:55 PM ^

Harbaugh has gone through 6-7 QBS and none of them have shown any improvement through their careers.

I don't think this is a fair criticism given that any QB that hasn't won a starting spot in the line-up has bailed on the program.  Jake Rudock was an Iowa cast-off that Harbaugh turned into a serviceable player in just a season.  You could argue that Wilton Speight had gotten pretty good by the time he was done.  Brandon Peters bailed early.  Dylan McCaffrey bailed early.  John O'Korn was a disaster.  Shea Patterson was pretty good but never lived up to the hype.  Joe Milton didn't work out and also bailed early.  Cade McNamara and J.J. McCarthy are TBD.  Your premise seems to hinge on the idea that Harbaugh hasn't brought in an freshman QB and turned him into Tom Brady immediately.

blueheron

March 10th, 2021 at 12:17 PM ^

I generally laugh at the people here who believe that Michigan's problems could be fixed by "recruiting Ohio." OSU's leftovers aren't going to get it done.

Look at what happened in the Fickell year, though. Brady took advantage of the opportunity and got some good guys in 2012 *and* 2013.

A weak OSU would allow Michigan to get back to the good old days as far as Ohio is concerned. For the moment it doesn't make sense to spend tons of time there.

RXwolverine

March 10th, 2021 at 12:10 PM ^

None of these schools demise benefits michigan unfortunately. Everyone of these programs have gone through some serious rebuilds but it didn’t seem to have any effect on us. If we want to get to the top we need to take it ourselves not wait until everyone else around us stink. Alabama didn’t wait until lsu and Florida stunk. They rose up and snatched the SEC themselves by defeating both teams on and off the field. Ohio state rose to the top by building their program with an elite coaching staff and not settling for average. They could have kept an “Ohio state man” but they went after the golden goose and got Meyer. We need to do the same. We need a coach who is the best possible candidate regardless of his ties to the program. In 2014 that candidate was Jim Harbaugh without a doubt. Today he is not. Keeping him right now is just prolonging the inevitable. I can be patient but if harbaugh doesn’t succeed the longer he stays here the more damaging it will be to the program. I really hope I’m wrong. I will be the first to admit it if I am. We need an elite coach. We do not have that at the moment.

scfanblue

March 10th, 2021 at 12:30 PM ^

Michigan doesn't need someone to fail to ensure their success on the football field. Michigan needs a team environment instead of an individual success type team environment. Our new defensive coordinator has already mentioned this and that it has to occur. This is a big difference between programs like Wisky, OSU, Alabama, and so on. They have great players but those great players want to WIN as a team. Look at Alabama when they played in the bowl game against Michigan. How many of their superstars sat that game out? They wanted to beat Michigan and build on the next season and it led to a National Championship. Yes, it is true that many of the schools cheat to get players but Michigan has a hell of a lot to sell a kid on and Michigan had excellent recruiting classes during Harbaugh's tenure. No excuses from Ann Arbor. If Notre Dame can make the playoffs and even play for a National Championship then there is NO reason that Michigan cannot do the same. Notre Dame's success under Kelly stops all of the whining cheaters arguments on this board. Harbaugh's leadership style has been Michigan's problem. Ridiculous coaching hires and keeping on coaches who are stubborn and lazy coupled with their failure to develop players is keeping Michigan from the top slots. Michigan needs to learn how to win and quit relying on the past glories instead of hoping someone fails to help them. Beat Ohio State on the field instead of hoping they become weak. If Purdue can whip their ass in one game then so can Michigan. Ohio State does have SOME better players but the are coached and prepared 1000% better than Michigan has ever been. They expect to win. Michigan shows up when they want to and that is COACHING. Let's hope that changes this year

WestQuad

March 10th, 2021 at 12:34 PM ^

OSU, ND, PSU, Stanford, USC, Clemson, MSU.  

If AL, GA, Ole Miss, TN and the rest of the SEC couldn't pay players that would be helpful too.

 

But I agree with others that you need to be better than the opponents rather than hoping that they crumble.

DHughes5218

March 10th, 2021 at 12:39 PM ^

I agree with the playoff field expansion being the key. Until it’s expanded we can expect Bama, Clemson, OSU, and a fourth from a group of others.

Elite high school players want to play with other elite players and they want to win championships. If you go to Alabama, Clemson, or OSU you’re practically guaranteed to compete for titles.- Expand the field and add a little competitive balance at the top. Instead of 3 or 4 teams with a shot at the title, you could have up to 10, maybe 12 teams competing.

scfanblue

March 10th, 2021 at 12:42 PM ^

I am 100% for playoff expansion!! BUT Michigan right now under Harbaugh would not even be close to earning one of those spots. Playoff expansion does not matter at this point with the state of the program in Ann Arbor. It will, however, stop benefitting just a few but those programs are so good that they will earn their way in. Everyone whines about Alabama and their out of conference schedule but the problem is not them. It is because no one wants to play them because of how good they are. Michigan tried to play them in Texas and was really embarrassed. They slapped Ohio State around this year like rag dolls and I have never seen OSU beaten so physically in a very long time. 

King Tot

March 10th, 2021 at 2:35 PM ^

But had the playoffs had been expanded when Harbaugh first came we probably would have made one or more between 2015,16, or 2018. That changes the trajectory of the program just like Notre Dames cupcale schedule does for them. 

lilpenny1316

March 10th, 2021 at 12:46 PM ^

PSU since going there is almost an automatic L and they like to recruit the Detroit area. If we could run the table with a close loss to OSU, that almost guarantees some consideration for a CFP spot. At least that's how it goes in the SEC.

MadMatt

March 10th, 2021 at 1:23 PM ^

None of them.  It's all on how we handle our own damn business.  We have substantially out-recruited all those programs since Harbaugh's arrival.  The only reason we're on par with them is that we can't get out of our own way.

If OSU has an underperforming decade, that would drag them down to the PSU, MSU, Wisc level, and it would come down to, again, handling our own damn business.  If OSU stays where they are at, we have only a "puncher's chance" of upsetting them in a year when (hopefully) we took care of business against the rest of the B1G.

Our fate, dear Brutus, is not in our stars but in ourselves.

MRunner73

March 10th, 2021 at 1:44 PM ^

No, it's all about OSU falling off the table in order for Michigan to benefit. We'd get more recruits out of Ohio as well as other regions. We'd beat OSU 9 out of 10 years and greatly improve our chances to win B1G titles and go to the playoffs. Our guys can beat PSU, ND & Wisc about every other year as it stands nowadays.

Sorry, but nothing really matters unless OSU Football were to collapse. This is not a pipe dream but as a matter of fact to this hypothetical.

KentuckianaWolverine

March 10th, 2021 at 1:56 PM ^

OSU is directly the cause of Michigan not playing for conference championships.  Being in the same division as OSU means we can't go to the BIG Championship without beating them.  Fun fact....Paul Chryst has been at Wisconsin for the exact same length of time as Harbaugh has been at Michigan.  They both have an 0-5 record vs OSU, but Paul Chryst is considered successful, because of BIG Championship game appearances.  That's simply because OSU isn't in their division.  Harbaugh and Michigan don't get that luxury.  They certainly don't get OSU overlooking them.  OSU always brings their A game, against Michigan.

It's mathematically impossible for Michigan to lose to OSU and go to the BIG Championship, without OSU losing to 2 other BIG teams.  This version of the OSU program isn't losing two games (Non Michigan) in the BIG.

The perfect example is the 2018 team (which gets overlooked, for some reason, when people talk about Harbaugh’s tenure).  They were undefeated in the BIG, going into the OSU game.  They lost to OSU, and OSU went on to play in the BIG Championship game.

Unlike when Bo, Gary, or Lloyd were here....they can't share BIG Championships simply because they have the same record.  That way of determining conference championships is LOOOOONG gone.  The only way is for Michigan to beat the OSU juggernaut.

So.....OSU "coming back down to Earth" would be #1 in the Michigan Success formula.