What's your confidence level for the CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Submitted by Monkey House on January 6th, 2024 at 11:26 PM

Ok everyone how are you feeling confidence wise about Monday's game? I'll be honest I was pretty unsure about the Rose Bowl, but I'm trying to talk myself out of being so confident about this game. 

SC Wolverine

January 7th, 2024 at 7:09 AM ^

The key is going to be our red zone defense.  I expect this game to play out on defense just like the 21 and 22 OSU games.  I.e., they can move pretty freely from 20 to 20 but find the red zone another matter.  As such, I expect touchdowns to be hard to get for UW.  Meanwhile, how is that defense going to stop us on offense, unless we stop ourselves?  So, a clean game on offense and Michigan should win.

brad

January 6th, 2024 at 11:54 PM ^

My confidence level is way too high.  My lizard brain is telling me to expect something like the 2013 regional final vs. Florida after the Trey Burke game against Kansas.  A truly rote blowout.

My thinking brain is trying to hang on to the fact that UW can score in sudden bursts and M can go down 10 quickly.  Still, I predict Michigan will be leading by 13-14 at some point and then it will come down to how well they protect and/or grow the lead.

MikeB1GMike

January 7th, 2024 at 12:00 AM ^

I’m confident, but also extremely anxious. This has been the most fun I’ve had as a fan in my 30 years of existence but also the nerves I’ve had the past 2 years are unsettling to say the least.

‘21 it was just glorious and felt good to say we were in the CFP and everything after Ohio State was cookies after the cake, ‘22 validated us as a program and CFP contender, ‘23 feels like our crowning moment of everything if the fellas can go out and execute. Hope I’m right but, either way what this group of guys have done starting with Hutch, Haskins, and Cade to JJ, Corum, Sainristil, Barrett and just so many other dudes has changed so much that I’m just proud to be a fan win or lose.

MgoDavidson

January 7th, 2024 at 12:07 AM ^

Confident Michigan can get just enough stops, which terrifies me. And even if Michigan manages to get out to a nice lead, I’ll still be scared of UW putting up points in a hurry

Qmatic

January 7th, 2024 at 12:09 AM ^

Confidence level I had in our biggest games this season: (1-10. 10 being the most confident)

Penn St: (at kickoff not the week leading up) 4

OSU: 6

Alabama: 5

Washington: 7.5

CLord

January 7th, 2024 at 12:12 AM ^

Michigan has lost the last 6 championships it has played in the big four sports...  Tired of bridesmaid status.  A loss here would cement it.  Confident, but just hoping wonky JJ doesn't show up.

Durham Blue

January 7th, 2024 at 12:18 AM ^

I won't be confident until I see some fairly consistent pressure on Penix.  If he is allowed to sit back in the pocket and throw darts we will be in for a sweaty night as fans.  And my confidence will grow if we are able to run the ball with consistency.

Pressure the QB and possess the ball.  These are things that Michigan has done better than most other programs over the past 3 seasons.  Need to see it again on Monday night.

M-Dog

January 7th, 2024 at 12:50 AM ^

Penix is scary.  He was pressured, and his receivers were covered well by Texas. and it didn't matter.

We have to kind of hope that he was like a streaky shooter on a hot streak and than he cools down.  He has had other games where he was more mortal.

We are going to need to trade some of their field goals for our touchdowns.

Ernis

January 7th, 2024 at 8:24 AM ^

Texas was covering well as far as being in position, but they weren’t great at tackling or making plays on the ball. (Though there was an insanely lucky near-PBU that floated up and back into the receivers hands.)

Anyway, I think our guys will be better at the latter two aspects of coverage, but there’s only one way to find out and damn it is unsettling

CJW3

January 7th, 2024 at 12:19 AM ^

Head: extremely confident. This is the match up this team was built to win. I think we've glimpses of the 22 Corum back when the lights have been brightest, and they don't get brighter than Monday night. 25 Corum carries, 10 Mullings carries, 5 JJ carries, and we grind UW into dust with 250 rushing yards. 42-27 type score. 

Heart: my agony is beyond description. No just God would subject his children to this. 

uminks

January 7th, 2024 at 12:24 AM ^

A against Alabama it was only 5/5 we would win. I feel a bit better against Washington 6/10. I thin if the combined score stays under 50 points we will win. Over 50 points it could be who ever has the b all last.

DaftPunk

January 7th, 2024 at 12:30 AM ^

Approaching this game with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind.

BPONE is banished by Rose Bowl endorphins.  I just watched the Sugar Bowl and Washington's run defense will be porous against our rushing attack. Texas' cornerbacks were beaten on a number of long passes when they were stride for stride with the WR, but never watched their eyes or looked back for the ball. I think our guys will do better, never mind Penix running for his life from our superior DL, and Minter's exotic blitzes. 

15-0

Bet!

 

RobM_24

January 7th, 2024 at 12:38 AM ^

I'm waffling on whether or not to buy Champagne. I bought Champagne before the Cubs Game 7 of the World Series -- and they won. I was at the store today, but I didn't buy any bc I got a feeling of overconfidence. However, now I'm leaning towards making a trip to get some before Monday night. 

M-Dog

January 7th, 2024 at 12:38 AM ^

It's pretty straightforward:

If you were a neutral fan and you had to choose a team to win a National Championship for you, would you choose Michigan or Washington?

You would rationally choose Michigan.

Michigan has multiple paths to win the National Championship: on defense, running the ball, even passing the ball.  Washington has one: Penix dropping dimes passing the ball.

He can certainly do it, as he showed against Texas.  But he has to do it.  There is no other way.

If you watch the UW - Texas highlights in Brian's preview post, it is shocking how fantastic Penix played.  And yet, Texas had a good chance to win at the end of the game.  Penix had to play that well just to hold off Texas, who did not really look that great.

All things considered, I would rather be in our position than theirs.

HailHail47

January 7th, 2024 at 12:44 AM ^

Cautiously optimistic. 

Washington has played 8 one score games this year. While you have to give them credit for prevailing, that is not particularly impressive and you would expect a team competing for a NC to be more dominant than that. I watched a lot of UW this year and they lived on a razors edge in several games. 

Washington has also played several games in the 20s this year, and only scored 15 against a bad ASU team, half of which was because of a pick-6…their offense is good, but they are not the world beaters the media are making them out to be. We also have the three top DBs that Washington will have seen all year. We are built to stop passing offenses like OSU and Washington. 

Deep passes have a high variance, sort of like three point shooting in basketball. If Washington connects on the deep ball it could be a long game. If we don’t make mistakes, I like our chances. 

Durham Blue

January 8th, 2024 at 12:04 AM ^

The good news is one of Michigan's phases was uncharacteristically horrible (ST).  Another phase could've been quite a bit better (offense).  And the third phase was pretty much stellar (defense).  If we play just our average ST, offensive and defensive games against Washington, we SHOULD win.

But I am not making any bold proclamations.  Just win.

Double-D

January 7th, 2024 at 12:56 AM ^

I’m confident.

I think this team is dialed in and has been on a mission.

Beating Bama and overcoming all of those mistakes will inject confidence into this team.

I expect a well executed game. 
 

King Tot

January 7th, 2024 at 1:03 AM ^

This is the most nervous I have been for a game since 2021 OSU. I am also extremely confident we will win. Washington is a great team but I also think they are a great match up for us. 

Jordan2323

January 7th, 2024 at 1:16 AM ^

I rewatched the Washington/Texasgame. Penix made some absolutely unbelievable passes and his receivers caught everything. Not just the wr’s, the dang tight end was diving for catches.
Dillon Johnson is huge for them inside the 5 and was against Texas. If he’s not close to healthy, it’s going to really hurt them. 

Washington likes to control the clock but they do it with passing as opposed to our running. With one on one coverage on the outside, if given any time, Penix will throw it deep. Texas had him in their sights several times but couldn’t make the play. Michigan has to hit him when they have the chance, no more Goode Trex arm crap. If Penix is hitting the passes he was the other night and they are getting all lucky bounces then may just have to tip your cap to them  

I felt like Texas had a real chance to win that game despite themselves. The second fumble in the fourth quarter was a killer. They were driving on Washington. Texas also got burned deep numerous times and also missed a lot of tackles in space. Gotta watch the Penix scrambles they’ve added recently. Sark also abandoned the run too often, that is and was Washington’s main weakness 

We all know Washington’s offense is great but their defense was awful. They gave up 498 yards to Texas. 
I feel like if Michigan can get some hits on Penix, which is difficult due to a good line and he likes to get the ball out quickly, we can disrupt their offensive rhythm. Also, we need to run a balanced offense with new wrinkles and a ton of motion and bring heavy personnel out and run the ball down their throats. Much like the 21/22 OSU games, it’s going to come down to making them kick field goals and for us to break some tendencies on offense at key times and play skins defense and Michigan will win. After rewatch, I’m actually feeling better about our chances. 
And at least it’s not an SEC team winning it if Michigan doesn’t. 

M-Dog

January 7th, 2024 at 1:38 AM ^

Ideal scenario: We get the ball first, on go on a long 15 play drive that eats 10 minutes of clock and scores a TD. 

UW is freaked out by that and gets the yips, knowing that they have to score a touchdown every single time they get the ball, and they won't be getting the ball very often. 

They press to much to keep up, throw a pick, and we drive it right down their throats for another touchdown.  They collapse at that point and implode with mistakes.