Updated 247 2021 football recruit rankings
JJ McCarthy up 3 spots to 16
Damon Payne up 35 spots to 25
Rocco Spindler up 2 spots to 31
Garrett Delinger down 7 spots to 36
Donovan Edwards up 2 spots to 60
Giovanni El-Hadi up 14 spots to 65
Corey Kiner down 5 spots to 108
https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Football/RecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=HighSchool
Wow, Washington got lucky they have 3 of the top 8 overall recruits in state. Gotta see if M can make some kind of pipeline there but would be tough overcoming even Oregon.
Is it worth it to try and set up a pipeline in a state that Michigan doesn't really recruit heavily? Seems like this staff is setting up pipelines closer to Michigan like VA, MA, MD and NJ.
It's not even worth the effort to try to make a "pipeline" to Washington. You try to poach a guy once in a while, and that's it.
Magnus, if you had to guess, what percentage chances does Michigan have at landing each of these guys individually? Obviously, McCarthy and El-Hadi are already committed.
I’ll say UM has a 60% chance of landing Spindler.
Not only are they closer to Michigan but those states aren't recruited heavily by power five schools. The northeast is hardly mentioned at all when it comes to football recruiting. States like Texas, Florida, and California get all the love though it is for good reason.
Washington gets hot on the recruiting trail.
Michigan has Washington on its schedule for 2020 and 2021. Because of course.
These guys would be true freshman in 2021 so I don't think there's much to worry about there.
It would be interesting if someone could classify these movements into two categories - meaningful, and noise.
I can't imagine that a "jump" from 19 to 16, or a "drop" from 29 to 36, matters in the least.
Them are fighting words around here, sir.
It would be interesting to hear from Steve Lorenz as to what is an actual move to take note of because I agree, even like 15 spots I don't foresee as any type of real movement other than someone else a little behind had a recent camp or something.
Our LB offeree Reid Carrico jumped 164 spots to 34th overall. Put that in the “alarmingly significant” category.
That's true. I realize that everyone loves stars, but I suspect what really happens is that you have a group of elite guys, then a second group of near elite and so on. Within each group, movement doesn't matter. Between groups though, that's when you're getting some real signal.
I could probably perform that analysis, but... I'd like to get tenure.
Is there no Maizen Meter for such occasions?
I imagine if the fall is still within the Top 100 it's not significant at all. From my perspective, huge moves up are the only things that are worth noticing.
I think the real issue is heterogeneity in quality across years. Some years there might be only 50 genuinely elite guys, while others there could be 100 or more. You need a measure of quality that isn't relative, e.g., "better than the other guys this year". Maybe the recruiting services do it, but I've never SPARQ scores stated relative to five year rolling averages or anything like that.
I think you are a little heavy there. I believe Steve or Sam have said many times that there are usually 20-30 real day 1 difference makers every year. From there to ~300-500 range are all good players that could become contributors.
i've wondered about this exact approach, as it seems like recruiting services sometimes talk about "down years." i've read it more in the basketball world, as Matt D has mentioned on the board a couple times that some years are weak on talent compared to others, but it's hard to parse what those actual differences are. it makes sense that naturally there is going to be some variance in quality of talent year-to-year, but i'd be interested to see it measured across years.
247 does list all-time rated recruits but i don't really understand how they get those numbers. You look at the top and like, yeah okay clowney / vince young were all time greats but those measurements don't seem all that objective? can someone explain how those numbers work? also nice to see M get the 3rd all time highest rated recruit in rashan!
https://247sports.com/Sport/Football/AllTimeRecruitRankings/
A new word for me "heterogeneity". Diverse. Plus one for you.
Of course I had to google him, and then got sick to my stomach looking at his balls.
You looking at teenage boy balls? I'm calling the FBI.
I put that in the "Bama and Clemson offered in the same week" = 100 position jump from Bama + 64 from Clemson.
See facts.
Just holding steady when you are in the top 100 is a good sign. With so many new players discovered during the summer camp season most top players are likely to drop a bit. And moving up even a bit is important as that means you are passing other highly rated players. The only concerning movement is when a player drops a lot which implies they may have bloomed early and didn't continue developing.
I think that movement in the 5-star range is actually, as a general matter, pretty significant.
Those are highly scouted guys who are only going to be moved up or down relative to other highly scouted guys. It's not cause for alarm to be dropped from 29 to 36, but it does mean that 7 highly scouted high school players were consciously ranked above you. And if you move up 3 spaces, that has similar significance.
On the other hand, if you are ranked 100 or below and get moved down 7 spots, that usually just means the services have found 7 other guys they hadn't paid much attention to who they like a lot.
This is the year we get all them elite players, right?
The state of Michigan appears to have some pretty good talent; 9 top 300 recruits. The state of Ohio has 9 top 300 recruits, as well. OSU is locking down on that talent, as Michigan has only one lead for a guy in the state of OH.
Will Harbaugh and Co. take the inititive to recruit these two states the hardest, or is Maryland/New Jersey our new pipeline states?
Georgia?
Obligatory comment re jersey sales in ohio.
Obligatory additional comment re need to beat OSU.
No obligatory comments about Ohio until we beat OSU.
"Pipelines" are incredibly fluid based on a coaching staff that generally changes from year to year, I'm not sure it's useful to think of it as Michigan focusing on certain areas compared to coaches going to areas where they have connections.
Leaped and plummeted..... sensationalized for added click appeal.
Weird since no one has actually played any football since last fall. I think it's weird that people can move up or down based on 7 on 7, and blocking and rush drills in shorts.
Do you think players get evaluated more during high school (huge talent gaps) or at elite camps with all top talent? Not trying to be a dick -- serious question/comment.
I'm guessing that more movement occurs during camp season because the players are usually competing against more equal skill levels.
It’s not just about the players though, it’s easier for the scouts to evaluate talent when they’re all in the same place. Then you’re not jumping from high school to high school trying to gauge how good the kid actually is or if it’s just because of poor talent competition. It makes the job of the scout much easier, hence more movement.
Or the “scouts” don’t want to watch tape they’d rather get the top prospects in one location and do evaluations then...I’m all for testing and running around in shorts, but watching a prospect play football is still the best barometer of talent IMO.
of course, 7on7 these days IS football. Just ask the Big 12
That's one side of the coin but the other is how well do they compete in live action, can they make complex decisions under duress and what kind of teammate are they...among other things. No scenario is perfect.
I would think it would be better, easier, more trustworthy, to look at a kid play an actual tackle football game to get a true evaluation. Not being a dick either. I think, without getting into a argument about star ratings, that if you wanted a true evaluation of a kids football skills and whether he should move up or down, you watch actual game tape. I honestly don't get caught up in the star thing, but I don't think there are enough true evaluators of football talent for people to get worked up about ratings. According to this Michigan has as much talent as Ohio. The state that is, and Michigan football isn't really on the same level as Ohio, in any year, but if they want people to subscribe, they have to give them something to feel good about. The elite guys are usually right, give or take 5 or 6 a year, but everyone else is really a crap shoot.
Watching a 17 year old Rashan play against a D3 walk on and future dentist doesn't say much about how good Rashan really is.
Do you think he played like the #1 recruit in the nation while at Michigan? You just proved my point.
It’s really not weird at all when you factor in the fact that the majority of a player’s ranking is based on summer camp performances.
they get a bunch of top recruits together in the same environment and see who sticks out.
A high school OL will never face the caliber DL in high school that he will at one of those camps, and so on for all the positions.
Recruiting rankings got more accurate when players began to be measured outside of games alone.
El-Hadi has continually trended in the right direction. Nice get for us early in the recruiting cycle.
The big news here, for Michigan, is that McCarthy is committed, is solid and is, by all reports, an excellent recruiter. These factors, in and of themselves, bode VERY well for what the bottom line is going to yield for this class...players love to play with this guy. Perhaps he can even get little Myles into the 2020 class.
So is El-Hadi. Others listed, no.
Yanni Karlaftis #60
Can i hijack my own thread and 'AXE' when Paige is supposed to commit today? Not sure if there was a time posted.
5:30 pm. Per his Twitter.
and 4:30 according to 247
We'll have to wait and see who's the more reliable source.
4:30 pm CT is also correct!
247 obviously used lsufootball.net for their listing times.