U-M has attempted just one pass over 30 yards in each of the last 4 games
November 3rd, 2019 at 10:53 AM ^
We've already lost 2 games. It's one of many issues/problems.
Also, I would lean more towards refusal rather than inability. We can only guess as to why they refuse to do it more than once per game. I think most of us would be satisfied with just one or two more per game.
My best guess as to why they don't do it more often is that if it doesn't hit, the coaches feel like the drive is most likely going to end up 3 and out because UM is a team that can't afford to be behind schedule. UM ranks 93rd in third down conversion percentage. Ouch. A missed deep shot most likely signals the end of a drive. Even with that being said, we have Nico Collins. You could make the argument that we should throw more deep balls because we're already bad at converting 3rd downs and sustaining drives so hitting a deep shot is sometimes our best shot at producing points on a drive. And we have Nico Collins...he is good...at catching deep balls....
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:01 AM ^
93rd? That seems historically bad for us.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:14 AM ^
Under Harbaugh:
2015: 46.24%, 17th in country
2016: 43.17%, 35th
2017: 32.8%!!!!, 112th
2018: 48.39%, 7th
2019: 38.14%, 77th (updated as of today)
So we're just really bad this year instead of 2017 historically bad :)
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:31 AM ^
WTF on 3rd down % going from 2018 to 2019? Same QB, basically the same O line but a year more experience. If one were to point to a stat that tells you everything you need to know about the offense in 2019, THIS is the one. If that was in the 30's/40's territory I think we'd have an 8-1 team right now.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:46 AM ^
Last year's team was very efficient and consistently managed to get to 3rd and 3 or less. At which point, Mason was also effective at converting.
This year's team hasn't run the ball as well.
Also, OSU is number one in the country this year by a wide margin, converting 3rd down at a 57.29% clip. This depresses me.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:47 AM ^
Pro-style offense last year was much better on early down runs. Michigan led the nation in average distance to go on 3rd down. We simply didn't face many 3rd and long situations last year, which naturally leads to a higher conversion rate.
November 3rd, 2019 at 12:20 PM ^
I disagree. Changing that stat does not pick us up 1 more win. Ronnie bell catching the ball against Penn St picks us up 1 more win (tie game, and we were dominating the 2nd half, would have been a W). Or Don Brown not being stupid against Hamler gets us 1 more win.
November 3rd, 2019 at 3:39 PM ^
Changing that stat probably puts us at a more manageable deficit going into the half, i.e. one that didn't require us breaking a Michigan come from behind record to win.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:02 AM ^
Or they know they're just as likely to be flagged for OPI.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:16 AM ^
If we're talking about Nico Collins, he draws DPI far, FAR more often than he has been flagged for OPI.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
I think a 15+ yard pass call should be the second down play if we get at least 5 yards on first down. If the pass play fails then 3rd and 5 or less should be decently high percentage to offset the risk of a long-ish pass. Wonder what the analytics "book" says.
The O line has been pretty rock solid in pass pro this season. Run blocking has been good lately, but not last game. Up and down.
November 3rd, 2019 at 2:25 PM ^
What I would like to see would be some variation on offense. It seems all too often that 1st and 2nd downs are runs, even when previously they got almost nothing on previous 1st and 2nd down attempts on previous drives.
The bubble screens or tunnel screens, or RPO slants can be substituted for 1st and 2nd down runs occasionally.
November 3rd, 2019 at 2:54 PM ^
Michigan had 25 first down play calls yesterday, they threw the ball on 12 of them. That’s almost 50 percent and it was over 50 percent for most of the game and then obviously they ran it for most of the last two drives.
The narrative that Michigan runs on first and second down almost exclusively is false.
November 3rd, 2019 at 10:58 AM ^
Likely because they have a QB with a weak arm and who panics before deep routes can develop. When they have run it, Shea doesn't even attempt to read the play. He just takes a deep drop and heaves it as far as he can and lets Nico run under it.
November 3rd, 2019 at 10:59 AM ^
But for a couple of shitty calls in the PSU game, I believe we would be 8-1. We were a total disaster in the Wiscy game and we rightfully lost that one.
Stop bitching already.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:06 AM ^
I wish I could upvote this more than once.
This team is exactly where they should be.
One horrendous no-show (Wisconsin), one ultra-conservative and miraculous escape (Army), and one tough loss (PSU).
95% of college football teams have a similar resume.
People bitch just to bitch.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:15 AM ^
95% of good college football teams have that resume. The others are Alabama, OSU, Oklahoma, and LSU.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:54 AM ^
Oklahoma? Not sure about them.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:18 AM ^
Not trying to be argumentative but this team is not "exactly where it should be." Before the season U-M was favored in every game this year. By the third week in October they were already out of the B1G title picture. The change in offense was supposed to open things up, instead they've scrapped everything they were doing on the ground and reverted to what they were doing last year. The passing game is not good enough if UM wants to beat Ohio State. It wasn't good enough to beat UW when they got behind either. It's not bitching just to bitch, it's a valid criticism.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:28 AM ^
Being favored in the preseason is simply a prediction based on variables that aren't solid data. I don't have terribly high confidence in preseason polls. If they were so accurate, there would be no need to play the games.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:34 AM ^
I'm not talking about polls I'm talking about vegas point spreads.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:46 AM ^
Vegas point spreads? Same difference, it's a prediction...lose one key player or have a team slow to adapt to a new system and it all goes to hell. Being older and being crushed enough times gives one perspective. Being at the App. State game was an eye opener. I give you Illinois beating Wisconsin.
I always had my doubts, not due to the offense which I thought would be top notch, but because of the loss of Gary, Winovich and Bush on the defense.
November 3rd, 2019 at 12:02 PM ^
I hate to break it to you but it's not the same difference, and anyone who thought this team should have been out of the conference title picture before November is just rationalizing to themselves at this point. Furthermore UM is going to lose good players every year. OSU lost pretty much its entire offense from last year and is humming along just fine. That's why recruiting is so damn important. Besides the defense hasn't been the problem. Since UW game they haven't given up 300 yards to an opponent.
When you have this WR core and this OL and a QB who has shown he can deliver fairly accurate deep balls you need to be throwing them more than once a game. I don't even understand how this is a debate. Do people really think UM is going to beat OSU dinking and dunking down the field?
November 3rd, 2019 at 12:48 PM ^
One loss before the OSU game and one could easily be out of the conference picture. That was a possibility, predictions be damned. I'm not thrilled about the reffing in the PSU game, but this defense did give up 21 points in the first quarter to PSU and was a no show for the Wisconsin game. I'm not sure how you can suggest that the defense hadn't been a problem early on. Army also did OK against this D too. I know, different offense that they run that we only see when playing a service academy. We got lucky on a missed field goal...don't forget that, or that's another L although not a conference game.
As for the O, you installed a new system. Speed in space sounded good until it wasn't and I don't care about the reason. You had injuries to Runyan and Shea, a new system, new and unproven running backs and yet you would have bet the ranch on the offense?
Two games were against decent opponents and they weren't at home. That PSU game was about as hostile an away crowd as one could imagine and one that we have faced in the recent past.
We will have to agree to disagree.
November 3rd, 2019 at 12:56 PM ^
There's nothing to agree to disagree about. Army had their lowest YPP output since 2014 against Michigan. But I'm sure you were thrilled with UM's 2.8 YPC on offense right? PSU had 280 yards of offense in a white out at home, but sure its the defense fault they lost that game. Making excuses for an offense that returned 9 starters while incorrectly re-litigating the defensive performances is ridiculous.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:47 AM ^
Those aren't all that accurate in the preseason either.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
I get what you're saying, and I should have been more precise with my comment, because it was more general in nature than directed at the OP specifically.
But despite the supposed glam of our outside receivers, Harbaugh has never been a guy to Chuck it 30+ times a game and go for it a la Al Davis. He's a percentages coach, and that's why he only rarely dials up bombs. Gattis's speed in space is operating out of a few different sets and changing the pass/run mix a bit, but it's still reliant on short and intermediate routes. Now that's partially due to Shea not hitting guys in stride for YAC, partially due to Mayfield and Runyan not holding up longer than 2 seconds, but probably mostly due to Harbaugh's preferences for how to attack a defense. Even if he's not calling the plays, he's still obviously dictating the pace and tempo with which they play.
I'm not disagreeing with your claim that they should throw deep more. They absolutely should (for sheer entertainment value as much as anything else), but don't expect anything to change in the last 3 games. And I don't think it not changing will dictate a win or loss vs. OSU.
November 3rd, 2019 at 12:23 PM ^
Spot on and almost universally picked to win the Big 10. The reality is they came into the season unprepared on offense with a mediocre senior QB. Defense was expected to be worse this year due to so many NFL departures but they have improved a lot during the season. The offense is still very flawed and likely to flame out against OSU barring a major light bulb going off
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:54 AM ^
We were very lucky against Army and deserved to lose that one, so it works out. Funny, we'd be better off if we had lost to Army and beat Penn State.
November 3rd, 2019 at 12:36 PM ^
I kinda disagree that we deserved to lose vs Army. If that fumble return for a TD is called correctly, that 7 points plus the fact that Army would be playing from behind makes that not such a nail biter.
November 3rd, 2019 at 1:00 PM ^
On the flip side, if Monken hadn't called that stupid pass on the goal line, Army goes up 17-7 and we're done.
November 3rd, 2019 at 12:07 PM ^
I agree with this as well. The team has some problems, and is installing a new offense. We aren't Alabama or ohio state, and we don't have clemson's weak ass cupcake schedule, but we are showing incremental improvement week by week. Early on the bpone felt well justified, but at this point the complaining seems to just be pointless incessant negativity.
November 3rd, 2019 at 1:33 PM ^
Are they really "installing a new offense"?
Or is it more flailing around with a mish-mash of new Gattis concepts tacked on to (increasingly more) JH/Warinner old stuff?
It looks more like they are still trying to figure out what they really want to do/be on offense than 'installing an offense.'
'Installing an offense' is having a master plan and a vision, and just teaching the players how to execute that vision. But Michigan is still muddling around trying to figure out exactly what the vision should be.
And at this point it looks a lot like (1) JH/Warinnner offense, (2) minus the Pep slow developing route trees, (3) plus some Gattis pass concepts. And so far it is still very much a work in progress. Oversimplification? Sure. But not wrong either.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:00 AM ^
Guy on twitter was complaining about them not throwing down field and Ed Warriner liked the tweet. Not sure if that was Ed being sarcastic with the tweet or he's frustrated about it as well.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^
Here's the tweet Warinner liked:
Can we PLEASE throw the damn ball down field....PLEASE ...Maryland is 89th is defense and Minnesota put up 52 on this team...WHY CAN'T WE DO THAT???
— Nate Lewis (@NateLewis77) November 2, 2019
November 3rd, 2019 at 12:16 PM ^
What’s Ed’s Twitter handle? Can’t find him.
November 3rd, 2019 at 12:40 PM ^
4Warriner assuming this is an official one. I cant keep up anymore
November 3rd, 2019 at 8:23 PM ^
If anything I would assume that's a shot at the QB, not the play calling.
There are deep routes all the time. You usually see them develop as Shea runs away from a clean pocket.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:01 AM ^
What's funny is that I saw that long completion yesterday, and thought to myself that this looked like the sort of play where if you try it 5 times, it's an incomplete twice, a pick twice and a completion once. Maybe the coaches see the same things I see.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^
I don't agree with 1/5 odds at all. I think Nico is a special talent in terms of high pointing the ball in the vein of Braylon Edwards although not at that level. I think he has either made the catch or drawn a flag pretty much every time this throw is attempted. I think they need to attempt it at least 2-3 times per game in the remaining games. They will certainly need big plays to hang with OSU anyway.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:31 AM ^
It was a play action pass right after a fake punt, so generally probably about as good a setup for a deep shot as you can have. The idea was for Collins to outrun the coverage, but that didn't work because Collins had to slow down to adjust to the football which allowed the cornerback to catch up. These passes aren't meant to be 'let's throw it up and hope our receiver comes down with it' these are meant to be hit in stride for an easy TD. Patterson's arm just isn't strong enough to do that with P5 college receivers playing against P5 defensive backs. Every time you have a play that requires a receiver to slow down and adjust just by default you have a play that is problematic.
Patterson just isn't a deep ball QB. Honestly if he could just settle down in the pocket and hit some of those 10-20 yard routes with accuracy and touch I'd be thrilled on that count alone.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:40 AM ^
Where do people come up with this stuff? I linked it above but PFF charts and grades all of this and Shea Patterson was the most accurate returning deep ball thrower returning in the B1G this year. He had an adjusted completion % of over 51% on deep balls last year which is REALLY good.
Here's the other thing, if you don't back up the safeties the run game is going to suffer. You short pass game is going to suffer Your entire offense is going to suffer because defenses can play within 10 yards of the LOS and not have any consequences for doing so.
The Shea Patterson slander and the rationalization for UM not pushing the ball downfield is quite preposterous but a predictable thing when UM wins. I get we all feel good about this little win streak we are on, but if UM doesn't start throwing the ball downfield more they will get blown out by Ohio State, again.
November 4th, 2019 at 6:06 PM ^
I agree that we should attempt 2-3 more deep passes per game, but if Nico Collins isn't on the receiving end of most of those deep passes last year, Shea's % goes down significantly. I don't think it's because Shea has a weak arm though. He can get the ball 40-50 yds downfield no problem. I think he waits about a second too long to throw the deep ball.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
If the OSU corner gets safety help then that play becomes high risk, IMO. One on one is a no brainer. Shea needs to recognize the coverage which seems to be an issue.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:45 AM ^
There are zero DBs in the entire country that would be able to make an interception on 40% of jump balls thrown between them and Nico Collins. Collins is 6'4" which makes him (at least) 5" taller than most corners he gets matched up with one-on-one.
November 3rd, 2019 at 12:04 PM ^
He is not that fast. You need some separation. Otherwise, the DB will break in front.
November 3rd, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^
This is laugh out loud hilarious.
November 3rd, 2019 at 2:40 PM ^
STfU! It’s disgraceful that you’re using Denard’s name in your username! Changing it something like “WhiningTrollCunt” or the like!
November 3rd, 2019 at 3:56 PM ^
How old are you, serious question.
November 3rd, 2019 at 5:54 PM ^
I'm a man. Get off our site.