U-M has attempted just one pass over 30 yards in each of the last 4 games

Submitted by denardsdreads on November 3rd, 2019 at 10:40 AM

At what point does Michigan's outright refusal to throw the ball downfield become a problem? The run game is getting revved up and looks good but the refusal/inability to throw the ball downfield more seems alarming. 

Thoughts? Comments? Concerns?

Ghost of Fritz…

November 3rd, 2019 at 1:43 PM ^

No one is saying chuck it up for 45 yard to Nico 5 times per game. 

But one 35+ yard pass per game is too few to make the D worry about defending the whole field.

And...I disagree on the math.  Five 40+ yard throws will yield  some combo of...1 or 2 catches, 1 or two PI, 2 or 3 incompletes, and an occasional interception (similar to a punt).

IOW, 40+ yard passes do not have a 40% interception rate.

And even the incompletes make the opposing D coordinator think twice about single high safety with 8-9 in the box, thus opening up the run game a lot.

 

 

snarling wolverine

November 3rd, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^

This doesn't include passes that draw interference or holding penalties, because those plays officially don't happen.  We've had a few of those.  

There should be a "penalties drawn" statistic for WRs.  Collins would be really high on it.

Mcguffie717

November 3rd, 2019 at 11:07 AM ^

I hope you are kidding with post. Shea doesn’t have the arm strength to throw it that far. Do you not see all the receivers waiting for the ball to get there???? Accuracy is way more important! 

BBQJeff

November 3rd, 2019 at 2:24 PM ^

Shea has the arm strength to throw it deep.  He just needs to let it go a bit sooner.   That's been his problem all season - he throws too late way too often.   I don't know what happened in the second half when we were on the 7 and Collins had single coverage.   I knew the ball was going to him but he ran a slant.   Play should have been changed to a fade.   Last year every time DPJ was in that situation it was a fade and back shoulder throw and a TD.  

Germany_Schulz

November 3rd, 2019 at 11:30 AM ^

We don't need long passes downfield.  That's so 1990's.  

Me thinks more practice eye gouging - especially let's get some jabs into Mork's eyes.

Maybe heading out of bounds and oops, I'm sorry I blinded you Coach. 

I mean, its not a PENALTY, right? 

Make a neck twist or two? 

"It will NEVER be over".   

Go Blue. 

JPC

November 3rd, 2019 at 11:30 AM ^

It becomes a problem when we lose because of it. Listen maizen, we have issues at QB - it’s not like they just choose to throw out all those plays. 

Grow up a little. 

maize-blue

November 3rd, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^

The overall passing game is just ok. Shea is just ok. I think it is what it is at this point. If the ground game is slowed this offense is more likely to bog.This is still a run to set up the pass team.

Durham Blue

November 3rd, 2019 at 11:40 AM ^

POWER football!  That's Harbaugh.  That's Michigan's identity!  Says every TV analyst.  Problem is we don't always identify with our so-called identity.  We beat up PSU in the second half and ND all game, but not Maryland.  Weird offense this season.

bluewings

November 3rd, 2019 at 11:45 AM ^

The offense is getting better. We are getting more yards per game and putting points on the board. 
 

I really don’t care to see more 30+ passing plays anyway, rather I want to see 10,15,20 yard passes. WR runs a great route and qb puts it on target. 

Perkis-Size Me

November 3rd, 2019 at 11:46 AM ^

If it makes you all feel any better we’re going to have to go deep against OSU, because there is no way in hell we’re going to be able to run the ball on them. They held Jonathan Taylor to 50ish total yards and he’s probably one of the 2-3 best RBs in America. 

Simply put, if we don’t fully utilize Collins, DPJ and Black that day, our chances go from slim to nada.

BlueSky

November 3rd, 2019 at 1:49 PM ^

Our best shot against OSU is to run it like we did vs ND.  Of course, OSU knows this and they probably believe if they limit the run game, it’s game over.  I would think throwing on first down, gives to the WRs on the end arounds they’ve so far been using as decoys, swing passes or WR screens to the outside help loosen up their D for the running attack.  The running game also shortens the game against their athleticism.

Fezzik

November 3rd, 2019 at 11:48 AM ^

At this point I expect defenses to stack the box heavy all game long and force us to open up the passing game. Or if we refuse to try we'll lose.

Michigan4Harbaugh

November 3rd, 2019 at 11:50 AM ^

I believe this field has already been well plowed, Angelique. Sure, I would like to see more deep throws. However, this team is winning ball games, and taking care of business. Didn't need to throw deep vs Illinois and ND given the conditions and the run game. PSU they could have attacked more, but didn't get any favorable PI calls when they tried. See everyone down at Schlissel's bar for a dominating air raid performance vs Michigan State.

Dorothy_ Mantooth

November 3rd, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^

on 3rd and short and on first and 10 situations should be when UM throws deep (if open); sure you'd like completions in deep passes (and no pix), but an added benefit could be the defense's back 7 are less likely to be jamming the line and gaps in UM run situations ...its unreasonable to expect UM's five O-linemen to block 7 or 8 guys at the line of scrimmage

maizehaze

November 3rd, 2019 at 12:05 PM ^

Our offense is really bad. 331 yards against Maryland is an embarrassment. If we averaged that every game, we'd be the 114th ranked offense in the country.

 

The passing game is outright horrible. Our receivers should getting open every play against Maryland, but they're not. I can't imagine any of these guys getting drafted in the first two days of this year's draft.

 

We tried two deep passes against MD and our receivers were absolutely blanketed. The completion to Collins was well covered and we just got lucky. Our play designs never get open guys streaking across the middle that Patterson is able to find.

Cranky Dave

November 3rd, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^

The bottom line is that the passing game is mediocre. Shea ranks 69th out of 115 eligible QBs is efficiency. Barring a marked improvement the defense and running game will have to win games. The passing game can lose games though. 

Remember over the summer when lots of people thought Shea was going to break the single season TD record...

BlueWolverine02

November 3rd, 2019 at 12:32 PM ^

I don't have a problem with us not throwing it deep.  I do have a problem with Shea not using the field.  Rather have a 12 yard high percentage throw that hits a WR in stride and moves the chains then a 40 yard low percentage bomb.  Problem is too many passes way short of the sticks that don't put WRs in a position to get YAC.

Mr.Jim

November 3rd, 2019 at 12:50 PM ^

“Become” a problem? It is and has been a “problem”. But let’s just give Josh a bit more time to get his #speedinspace gig going. Next year. Yeah, that’s the ticket! Next year we’re gonna be really good!

HenneGivenSunday

November 3rd, 2019 at 8:35 PM ^

This entire thread feels like 75% the same guy with multiple accounts having an insane back and forth with himself.  Of the remaining 25%, about 2/3rds don’t realize what is happening.  This is the same thing that always happens when Maizen comes back.  Post some relatively obscure stat, talk about how concerning it is, everyone argues, a post that was like the 10th post in the thread gets pushed to page 3-4 due to people piling on the first comments.  It’s all so predictable.

Ghost of Fritz…

November 3rd, 2019 at 1:04 PM ^

Near impossible to beat OSU if Michigan lacks the ability to make them defend the entire field, as in 20-35 yard pass plays, plus at least a couple of deep attempts. 

Allowing a D to defend only runs, screens, and short passes works fine against Maryland.  Will not work against OSU, or any team with a strong D.  Too easy to play 8 in the box. 

And no, one deep pass to Nico per game (as they did yesterday) does not fix that.

Here is the weird thing:  Last year there was a heavy dose of 20-25 yard pass plays.  Slow developing medium-long route trees were used too often, when short and quick timing routes would have been better. 

Now it is the opposite.  20 yard route trees have become too rare.  Is it really not possible to do both?

 

 

Ghost of Fritz…

November 3rd, 2019 at 6:23 PM ^

Playing ball control against better Ds requires that you be able to force the D to take your passing game seriously, and in fact force them to take your 20+ and 30+ yard passing game seriously.  This is the only way to make a good D defend the whole field.  Otherwise, M is easy to contain:  Just clog up the box, slow down the run game, and put Michigan in lots of bad 3rd and longish passing downs.

Just running into 8-9 man boxes just produces lots of 3 and outs or 5-6 and outs.  That does little to keep the ball away from OSU's offense. 

IOW, in order to sustain drives against OSU, more run/pass balance is needed, and more balance between short/longer pass plays is needed.

Papa Koz

November 3rd, 2019 at 1:10 PM ^

In our last 2 games Shea has not turned the ball over, the previous 8 games he turned it over in each game. The last 2 is what Shea is and what he can do. We will probably not throw deep much the rest of the season or be prepared to see a high turnover rate. Next year would be my guess, if you’re waiting to see more efficient deep ball passes. 
 

What is more concerning is that I don’t feel like Shea has improved his game as a whole since he arrived in AA. I’ll let you decide how and why that is the case.