Today's Rooting Guide
Well, shitting the bed sure wasn't fun yesterday. It does seem it was the perfect microcosm of the season. Nothing we can do about that now.
Let's talk rooting interests for today and there are some HUGE ones! Let's look at our info first:
- First with us, Bracket Matrix did an update last night and we were in 130 of 133 brackets. I would expect that number to drop a bit with today's update.
- Interestingly enough, we didn't move at all on Torvik. We came in at 25 and are still at 25. He has us as the 9th team above the cut line and the second to last 10 seed.
- Our NET ranking took a small dip. We were 31, we're now 34.
- Lunardi at ESPN still has us as the 6th last team in the tournament. That Notre Dame lost helped A TON! As predicted, Palm with CBS has us as the 2nd team out.
So, what helps us today (in order of importance):
- I actually like Rutgers. I think their team is really fun to watch but we need Iowa to beat them today and big if possible. Rutgers has a gaudy 6 Q-1 wins (we have 5) but their NET ranking is still a problem at 77 as they have 2 Q-3 losses and a dreaded Q-4 loss. Lunardi has Rutgers one slot above us. Not counting conference champions, Bracket Matrix has Rutgers 6 spots behind us. Gotta have an Iowa win here.
- Staying in the Big Ten, we need Illinois to beat Indiana today. With their win yesterday that will never be mentioned again, they are now 41 on the NET ranking. Lunardi has Indiana as his last team in, Bracket Matrix has them as their 2nd team out, and Torvik has them as his first team safe from Dayton. ILL-INI (barf)
- In the Mountain West (which by the way, is likely to get at least 3 teams in the tournament), we need Boise State to beat Wyoming. Wyoming is up to 44 on the NET ranking are their last second win over UNLV last night.Bracket Matrix, Lunardi, and Torvik all agree that Wyoming is one of the last 4 teams in. A loss for them tonight likely pushes them out.
- We need Miami to lose to Duke today. Miami is an interesting case. With their last-second win against BC yesterday, they actually dropped to spots on the NET rankings (to 63). Miami has 3 Quad-3 losses. Lunardi has them 2 spots above us. Torvik has them one spot above us and Bracket Matrix has them 3 spots below us. A Duke win can actually help a Michigan team, who knew?
- This one will be easy for me because I've always thought Richmond had one of the cooler mascots (plus Beilein coached there) but we need Richmond to beat VCU today. This should actually be, on paper, an awesome game. Torvik and Bracket Matrix are believers in that VCU is one of the last 1-2 teams left off the bracket. Lunardi thinks they're a little further back than that. Either way, we need one less team to worry about. Go Spiders!
- Another big one in the AAC. We need Tulsa to beat SMU. Tulsa is interesting. They were playing awful but have pulled off some decent wins over the last 2 weeks. General agreement here that SMU is right on the cut line. NET ranking of 48, Bracket Matrix has them as the last team in, Lunardi has them as the first team out, and Torvik has them as his 4th to last team safe. We're big Tulsa fans today.
- We'd love it if UMass beat Dayton. This one is probably a pretty tough pull as UMass hasn't been great this year. Dayton winning this game isn't going to help them much but losing would be bubble death. Dayton is 52 on the NET ranking. Little bit of disagreement here, as Torvik and Bracket Matrix have Dayton as the 7th and 5th team out of the field respectively but Lunardi has them as his 2nd team out. Go Minutemen!
- North Carolina did us a solid yesterday and we need them to do it again. We're rooting for NC against Virginia Tech. Speaking of a solid, VT beating Notre Dame was a huge gift but your run needs to be over Hokies. They are now 33 on the NET ranking (one above us). Torvik has them as his first team out, Lunardi thinks they're the 3rd team out. Bracket Matrix is a touch behind with the games from yesterday and says 6th team out. Go Heels!
- We need Oklahoma's run to end, they're moving up quickly. Their NET ranking is now 38. Bracket Matrix and Lunardi are in agreement that Oklahoma is the 4th team out, Torvik thinks they're the 6th to last team in the field. Either way, we're rooting for Texas Tech to beat the Sooners.
- One more case of the bid stealer, we need Auburn to beat Texas A&M today. A&M's net ranking is now 55 and climbing. But a loss today officially knocks them out. Some general agreement here with Torvik and Lunardi. They both have A&M about 6-7 spots off the cut line but a win over Auburn would change that drastically. We can't risk that. Go Tigers!
Wins by SDSU, Arizona, and UCF would also be helpful for our SOS but I won't be greedy ;)
There you have it! Let's move up that seed line! Go Blue!
True Blue 9, we might need to move you up to True Blue 1 or 2 with your recent performance.
This rooting guide is awesome!
lol appreciate that feedback, Indy Pete! Interestingly enough, I actually chose 9 in my screen name because it's my lucky number. I was born on Jan. 9th and my Grandfather was born on Mar. 9th.
Glad you've found these helpful. I was a little worried yesterday and today's might be a bit much but we need all the help we can get.
March 11th, 2022 at 10:55 AM ^
is TB2003 your brother or cousin or something like that? he's pretty sharp on the hoops stuff also.
thanks TB9
March 11th, 2022 at 12:06 PM ^
Lunardi has him as True Blue 9. Palm has him as True Blue First Four Out.
March 11th, 2022 at 12:19 PM ^
Based on this analysis and our recent basketball luck, I guess I am expecting Rutgers, Indiana, Wyoming, Miami, VCU, SMU, Dayton, VT, Oklahoma and Texas A&M to win today. Best get to the Draft Kings app.
My interest in this team evaporated in real time yesterday. It might return if they get in the tourney, but honestly I doubt if I will watch another game of the BTT. For whatever reason that game yesterday left a really bad aftertaste. I hope they get in, but I’m not on pins and needles.
I am right there with you! Yesterday's game left me in my biggest piss poor Michigan mood since the MSU football game. Interestingly enough, both involved late collapses.
Sure, yesterday was a major dong punch and it takes some time to pick your fandom back up but this is our team and we should support them regardless. This team can beat anyone when everything clicks and flush all our hopes down the toilet when they lose focus. Just adjust expectations accordingly and enjoy the ride.
It’s just…. you can’t lose that game. It just can’t happen. There are a couple of other things as well. It is probably a very unpopular take, but I am kind of over Dickinson’s stare downs and whatever between the legs celebration he has going. I’m watching the game yesterday, and I’m think seriously dude? You are doing all this jawing and then you get a tech? In a must win where you are dominating. Why? Just act like you have been there. Just blah.
I kind of agree. Hunter is an emotional player. When he is engaged and motivated, he is a monster. We have several emotional players on this team and that has led to some of our uneven play. Eli and Jones are seniors and have learned to play hard while controlling their emotions; Hunter and many of our younger players need to learn that as well. Honestly, I put some of that lack if emotional regulation on Juwan; Juwan is an emotional person and I think that impacts how the team plays. Not all emotion in the game is bad, Mike Woodson used emotion to his advantage yesterday, but this team needs to learn how to maintain a high level of effort even when thing are not going their way.
March 11th, 2022 at 10:51 AM ^
My hot take (that is probably becoming cooler over time) is we would hate Hunter if he played for another B1G team
Yeah, this isn't even a hot take. This is super obvious, even the coaches have basically said as much!
March 11th, 2022 at 11:21 AM ^
Hunter is our Bill Laimbeer, but not as smart yet.
March 11th, 2022 at 12:17 PM ^
Hunter is our Bill Laimbeer, but not as smart yet.
He's not as good, either.
I still support them, but I'm not going to waste any time arguing that they deserve a spot in the tournament. If they get in great, I'll watch, but with zero expectation and little enthusiasm. If they don't get in they have nobody to blame but themselves.
Im there too, im also guessing i wont even watch their tournament game seeing as I'll be at work and there's no point in trying to stay away from the score, people here are fucking idiots and will tell you the score just to be pieces of shit.
I'm disappointed by all the fair weather fans out here.
Quick Summary:
Illinois v. Indiana (11:30 BTN)
Auburn v. Texas A&M (Noon ESPN)
Iowa v. Rutgers (2:00 BTN)
Umass v. Dayton (6:00 USA)
Duke v. Miami (7:00 ESPN)
Tulsa v. SMU (7:00 ESPNU)
Richmond v. VCU (8:30 USA)
UNC v. Virginia Tech (9:30 ESPN)
Texas Tech v. Oklahoma (9:30 ESPN2)
Boise State v. Wyoming (9:30 CBS Sports Network)
SMU (-8.5), Rutgers (+6.5), Miami (+9), and Indiana (+5) would appear to be the most important today.
Appreciate that Kevin. This might be a good addition for tomorrow and Sunday :)
March 11th, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^
Rooting guide plus tipoff times. Way to go guys! My Friday honey do list will have to remain untouched on the kitchen table now…
March 11th, 2022 at 12:49 PM ^
Betting lines are always a good addition...
March 11th, 2022 at 10:32 AM ^
So you are saying to lay a nice parlay on them all!
Great guide, but we deserve to be in the CBI after yesterday.
March 11th, 2022 at 10:08 AM ^
True.
The worst part about this season is the real possibility that we lose our whole starting five next year from a team that didn't (or barely made) to he tournament: Brooks, Jones, Dickinson, Diabate, and Houstan
March 11th, 2022 at 10:53 AM ^
If Diabate and Houstan leave then we need to stop recruiting 5 stars because it isn’t worth it. They didn’t contribute enough this year for us to use the scholarships and have them for a season. Neither are close to ready.
March 11th, 2022 at 12:38 PM ^
So let’s ignore all the other times 5-star recruits have been awesome because the two we landed happened to be overrated? Sample size dude.
I would argue that the ones that are worth it are the exceptions the prove the rule. It's pretty rare for them to actually be useful as freshmen before they leave anyway.
There's a reason Jay Wright basically stopped recruiting five stars after he realized that the hit rate is pretty low unless you're getting a top 5ish guy.
Third year four stars > freshman five stars
I'm not advocating to not recruit five stars, but I think you have to be really selective. Houstan was clearly overrated and Moussa as a really talented by raw guy is also the type you don't really want because he's not going to stay to realize his potential.
Definitely agree with this. Every 5 star isn’t equally valuable to a college program.
March 11th, 2022 at 12:47 PM ^
So they should have spent them on less talented first year players who would have likely played worse?
Echoing the comments, thank you for writing these posts and will be watching the games and rooting accordingly!
Go Blue, hopefully not in Dayton for a NCAA berth in the round of 64!
This is good content.
+1 informative title.
+1 for clear and concise analysis
+1 for detailed analysis.
+1 for original content
this is how its done
March 11th, 2022 at 10:18 AM ^
What if I thought this was a rooting guide for softball today
/s
Naw this is really good stuff
March 11th, 2022 at 10:14 AM ^
Thanks for doing these. I know a lot of drama queens were saying that loss eliminated Michigan and were talking about the NIT. But the reality is that other teams in their vicinity aren't that great either. Michigan has a strong enough resume to get in. Especially considering teams around them like Virginia and Notre Dame also lost.
March 11th, 2022 at 10:20 AM ^
What yesterday did for me was have me be at peace if Michigan doesn't make it. Like, I won't be mad, they blew a shot to solidify it. They have one of the weirder bubble resumes in recent memory- but playing 10 straight tourney teams and going 5-5 feels like a thing teams in the tournament would do (including Rutgers and Indiana here).
March 11th, 2022 at 11:17 AM ^
After watching the second half, we might lose in the first round of the NIT.
No, we will win our first round game no matter what tournament we are in. It’s the second round game that will get us bounced. We can’t seem to win back to back games
March 11th, 2022 at 10:17 AM ^
After that let down yesterday? Rooting for myself vs. the Whiskey..a true underdog story.
March 11th, 2022 at 10:22 AM ^
UR alum. Was there when Beilein was the coach. Fun to watch then, and pretty solid now. Go Spiders!
March 11th, 2022 at 10:26 AM ^
I am Henri Ennui, the French otter of indifference.
March 11th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^
Torvik says we're 100% in, currently as a 10. I'm like... mmmm. Not so sure about that yet.
March 11th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
I don't think it's going to happen, because Iowa is playing insanely well over the past month+, but we want Rutgers to win.
At this point, it's only a matter of whether we're in Dayton or solidly in the field. We want our resume to be as strong as possible and Rutgers getting to top 75 in NET (they're currently 77th) helps our resume as lot as it moves the home win from Q3 to Q2 and the road loss from Q2 to Q1 and those change our meh 3-3 Q2 record to a solid 4-2.
Even though Rutgers would probably pass us, that props us up against all the other resumes which is a worthwhile tradeoff. I think that would go a long way to ensuring we have a bye into the field.
Other than that, I agree with all these and as usual thank you True Blue 9. I would also add that the Arizona game has implications beyond SoS. Colorado has a nice team and an underrated resume. They could make an argument as an at large if they beat Arizona but they'd also be one win away from an auto-bid and what we really don't want are bid steals because each one puts us one team closer to Dayton.
March 11th, 2022 at 12:04 PM ^
I agree with you on Colorado --- seemingly nobody is mentioning them as a bubble team but their resume if it stands today really isn't terrible. That really becomes so if they beat Arizona tonight (for a 2nd time in 14 days).
March 11th, 2022 at 10:37 AM ^
Nice job on this...appreciate it
March 11th, 2022 at 10:41 AM ^
Excellent work.
March 11th, 2022 at 10:44 AM ^
Let us now praise famous true blues
March 11th, 2022 at 10:49 AM ^
Good analysis but there are too many moving parts. I am sorta tapped out following yesterday's epic collapse by our guys. I'll be very happy if they're in and not terribly disappointed if we go to the NIT.
March 11th, 2022 at 10:49 AM ^
What is Palm’s rationale that makes look so much worse in his eyes than everyone else?
March 11th, 2022 at 10:54 AM ^
Overall record. He is all in on this "at least 4 games above .500" train. I think the SOS and the quality of wins negates his position.
March 11th, 2022 at 10:59 AM ^
Angry-Dad is correct. Jerry Palm has been on this weird 4 games above .500 kick for a few years now.
One positive for us for sure is, he's a pretty lousy Bracketeer, according to Bracket Matrix. They rank all 135 Brackeeters and Jerry Palm is 100 out of 135. Lunardi is much better at 55.
March 11th, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^
I echo the comment on Lunardi. He is kind of a gas bag and self promoter, but he seems to have a lot of connections in the selection committee world (likely helped by his ESPN connections). He says that there are really only three at large spots left, so having Michigan as sixth in right now basically says they are in no matter what by his take. One thing to watch on Lunardi is when he makes sudden changes in the last two days before the reveal. He is always right on these and they seem to be direct leaks to him from the committee. The biggest one of these I remember was in 2014 when he suddenly moved Michigan from a #1 to a #2 before the BTT title game against MSU even started.