Thursday Michigan Hoops Discussion Thread (without yelling)
Oooh boy, I've seen some stinkers in my day but last night was not pretty, not pretty at all. From the moment Lamar Stevens opened the game playing NBA Jam there were some loud flashing alarm bells that things were definitely not as they had seemed for that glorious couple of weeks just a little over a month ago.
If you are like me, you have some random Michigan basketball thoughts just kind of rolling around in your mind today and instead of talking to myself (underrated, by the way), I am going to throw them out there and maybe we can have some civil discourse on the condition and outlook of the Michigan basketball team. Nobody as to be a "pathetic troll" for their take, nobody has to be an "ignorant jackass" for their opinion. We're all friends here, right?
1. Seeing and reading Howard's post-game remarks, what he seems to be describing is a lack of chemistry on the team. There are legitimate reasons why this would be the case. The team is oddly divided into certain "categories" of players. You have the seniors getting the "lifetime achievement award" in Teske and Simpson, you have the younger guys that are going to be part of the future in DDJ, Wagner, and Johns, and then you mix in the category of player who knows deep that they are just hold-over guys in Brooks, Castleton, and Davis (I get the distinct impressions that, despite playing a lot of minutes, Johns kind of feels like he is in this bunch as well).
There seems to be a lack of continuity of purpose on the team, nobody really feels like they are extensions of each other. You mix in that none of these guys, except Wagner sort of, are playing for the coach that recruited them, that the one "glue-guy" between the glory days of the Beilein years and what we hope to be the future of the program is out with an increasingly infuriating injury, that you have a starting freshman who is probably going through a bit of a cultural adjustment, and that the head coach has no real experience in the dynamics of multi-layered motivation required of a head coach, it makes a lot more sense why this team cannot find any cohesive identity.
2. On Tournament chances, not great Bob. It isn't like we are doomed to the NIT at this very moment, but neither is it that we are "in a perilous tournament predicament" if we lose another home game as suggestion in the game recap. We are in great peril right now. A lot of seeding projections are based on if a team wins the games they are prognosticated to win based on data and expectations as of the date of the projection. Our win probability against anybody not named Nebraska or Northwestern is going to plummet, it is not "we could have a problem if we lose another home game," it is "we need to get hot, fast" to make the tournament.
There are often gaudy conference tourney projections thrown out, like the BIG could get 12 teams into the NCAA tourney. The BIG is not going to get 12 teams in the dance. Other conference bubble teams will get hot, a couple of dominant mid-majors will lose a conference title game and eat an at-large bid. The BIG is looking at 10 bids, max. Our next five are Illinois, at Nebraska, Rutger(n), Ohio State, Michigan State. We need four of them. Look at our schedule. If you get the team to 10-10 in conference I like our chances, 9-11 does not feel comfortable. 8-12 is simply not going to happen. Complicating things is that Michigan has single plays against both Minnesota and Penn State, other potential bubble teams, and they lose both of those head to heads. (facepalm, I know). We need to beat Ohio State twice and win the return date with Purdue at Mackey. Those are the games to circle right now. We need to win those games.
Anyway, not trying to write a novel here, just doing a little bit of thinking out loud. I love Michigan basketball and had high hopes for this group after their performance out of the gate and the recent developments have been unsettling. Would be interested to hear anybody else's thoughts on the state of affairs.
January 23rd, 2020 at 7:47 AM ^
I am honestly confused at those criticizing Juwan’s coaching. Just sit back and take this year for whatever it is and wait for the flood of 4 and 5 stars coming next year. When our players are better than most else’s, we will win a lot of games because of that fact alone.
January 23rd, 2020 at 7:49 AM ^
I hope they come. I am wondering if some of the elite look at this tire fire beginning to smolder and will have cold feet. If that happens, what are your thoughts then? Time will tell.
I'd be interested in Matt's thoughts on the impact a poor year will have on the recruits he monitors/talks to.
January 23rd, 2020 at 9:06 AM ^
The season before the Fab Five, the team finished with a .500 record and no marquee wins. We are far from that territory this season.
January 23rd, 2020 at 10:26 AM ^
If my son was an elite player, I would show him how Coach Howard's offensive sets gave guys many, many, many (I could go on) opportunities and uncontested shots, and they just missed them. Son, I'd say, you will hit those shots.
The quality of play is overshadowing the system. The system sets up these players to succeed, if they can shoot.
January 23rd, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^
We have been playing shitty in recent weeks, but I certainly wouldn't describe Michigan's situation as a "tire fire."
January 23rd, 2020 at 8:05 AM ^
I don't think adding higher ranked recruits is going to solve all their problems without good coaching. Just look at Indiana the past decade.
January 23rd, 2020 at 9:04 AM ^
Not going for indiana -- going for kentucky.
January 23rd, 2020 at 3:42 PM ^
This is an example of why I will never understand this board (not meaning to call you out individually).
In football -- board says we will never beat OSU or other elite programs because we don't recruit at an elite enough level. We also bitch when Harbaugh hires an overqualified coach (aka former HC or coordinator at a major program, hired as a position coach) if they are not also known as an ace recruiter.
In basketball -- board says elite recruiting classes are not the solution and we need better coaching. This despite 1) Having Martelli (one of the most tenured / successful coaches of the last 50 years) on staff and 2) the broad acknowledgement that 1-2 elite talents can have a significantly overstated impact in basketball vs. football (e.g., Cleveland Cavaliers -- Lebron James)
Clearly the answer lies somewhere in the middle, but as a fanbase we tend to take 1 of the views above and use it to denigrate our team's performance and program outlook
January 23rd, 2020 at 5:40 PM ^
I won't complain if Harbaugh hires an overqualified coach to be the RB coach.
January 23rd, 2020 at 8:16 AM ^
Lol there’s a really good chance this team is worse next year. They may lose there top 3 scorers from this year, and a guard rotation of DDJ, Brooks, and a freshman Zeb doesn’t inspire much confidence.
January 23rd, 2020 at 8:24 AM ^
Howard's recruiting strategy renders that thing we used to do where we list the minutes of each player at each position useless. He is trying to land recruits that are plug and play like Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina. He might fail in his efforts, it is not a guarantee that he succeeds, but that is more of the dynamic he is trying to create. That kind of fits into what I was saying about chemistry above. We have like 4 Michael Talley-equivalents. If Howard's plan comes to fruition very few of these players will be heavily involved next year, and I think they know it.
January 23rd, 2020 at 11:44 AM ^
If current players think they won’t play a big role here next year, wouldn’t that inspire them to play better now in order to change that dynamic or improve their transfer prospects?
January 23rd, 2020 at 12:01 PM ^
Yes, but all they can really do is literally shoot their shot. If it doesn't go, it doesn't go.
January 23rd, 2020 at 12:19 PM ^
Exactly. It makes them want to improve their individual chances of continuing to play, but it doesn't matter a bit what everybody else does. In fact, with that kind of dynamic, another player's success becomes your failure.
January 23rd, 2020 at 5:17 PM ^
Michael Talley was sweet in high school. So was Tony Tolbert. They would drop 40 on you like it was nothing.
January 23rd, 2020 at 9:48 AM ^
Hey Dburgy82,
Remember when you said this and then Todd and Dickinson promptly committed? Good times.
"They’ll still get some good talent but you got people here thinking they’ll get 2-3 more top 50 guys, that’s not happening, even 1 more from the guys they offered would be a surprise."
January 23rd, 2020 at 12:21 PM ^
Lol indeed
January 23rd, 2020 at 1:23 PM ^
Let me know when Todd makes it to campus LOL. Regardless Doesn’t change the likelihood of the inevitable step back next year
January 23rd, 2020 at 8:28 AM ^
Start of the season was this team's ceiling. Howard had them believing in each other and roles were being fought for. Livers going out was a blow to the offense and then the other guys reverted to their mean. Let's face it there were no replacements for Iggy, Poole and Matthews on the roster. Honestly, I was shocked at the early season success but the team was hot shooting nearly 50% of their 3's. Just couldn't keep that going with Livers out.
Also, existing roster guys for next year may now see the handwriting on the wall. Meaning with these super star recruits arriving next year their motivation may have been thumped. Clearly, Howard is playing those frosh stars next year as starters.
So a combination of those things can destroy team chemistry quickly. Being kids they are likely to play better, but we saw their ceiling and man that was fun. Sadly, it is likely on to next season unless Livers comes back on fire and the team responds.
January 23rd, 2020 at 9:04 AM ^
Good take. There is a reason Juwan remains open to Christopher and Brown being added to next year's roster. There are a couple of pieces from this year's roster that could contribute to next year's team. I believe Livers takes leave and jumps to the NBA...would love to be a fly on the wall during his conversations with Juwan in this regard.
Otherwise, Juwan's critics here are uniformed and ignorant of the game of basketball...likely have never played-surely have never coached. This is indeed a learning year for Juwan but I am confident that he will in fact learn and settle into this deal very nicely.
January 23rd, 2020 at 9:34 AM ^
This is poorly coached basketball team, and it doesn’t take an expert to see it.
January 23rd, 2020 at 12:25 PM ^
It seems like only a moron can see it.
January 23rd, 2020 at 9:34 AM ^
This is poorly coached basketball team, and it doesn’t take an expert to see it.
January 23rd, 2020 at 9:34 AM ^
This is poorly coached basketball team, and it doesn’t take an expert to see it.
January 23rd, 2020 at 9:42 AM ^
If the critics have never played, why are they wearing uniforms?
January 23rd, 2020 at 10:35 AM ^
Are Christopher and Brown really going to come to a team that's not making the tournament? Why wouldn't Christopher just go play with his brother at ASU at that point? The selling point we had was a team with momentum, and potentially a sweet 16 team?
January 23rd, 2020 at 11:09 AM ^
Lol, yeah, because making the tournament this year is something Christopher was super passionate about in his college choice
January 23rd, 2020 at 8:59 AM ^
Per UMHoops, Michigan shot 10% on catch and shoot jumpers last night. The worst team in the nation averages 23%. If half the idiots who criticize get a subscription to Dylan’s website, then we wouldn’t have threads clamoring about coaching.
Juwan can’t make the players hit wide open shots. At some point the players have to fucking show up. Franz is the biggest disappointment this year along with Teske. At worst he should be able to just shoot on a fairly consistent basis which he cant do either. The sophomore class is pretty much useless as well. Idk what Johns does well. Castleton is epitome of draft stash and pray. Nunez shouldn’t even be on the roster. DDJ is inconsistent as hell but I would still have him over X shooting 20+ times even if I got negged to hell last week stating that.
Matthews leaving is the biggest problem on defense bc there are 0 wings on this team. This is the equivalent of football having FBs instead of RBs. Sure a FB knows what the RB does without the agility and speed needed to do it. We have 6 ft guards trying to guard 6’4” players with wingspans taller than our players LOL. Add in Livers’ injury and the defense falls off significantly. Beilein’s recruiting fell off a cliff and it’s evident why he left after Poole and Iggy left.
This team wasn’t good on offense last year either and peaked in November too if you remember. But nooo its all cuz Juwan Howard can’t coach even tho we have UMHoops, Ace and others on M BBall twitter pointing out how Juwan has put the players in excellent position to make baskets and continued 90% of the defensive schemes from last year. Morons.
January 23rd, 2020 at 9:06 AM ^
Franz needs to remember he is good at shooting basketballs.
January 23rd, 2020 at 9:39 AM ^
Last year the team played Defense which made up for the lack of shooters. This team is awful defensively, that’s coaching moron
January 23rd, 2020 at 1:22 PM ^
That 22-3 record was nice thanks for reminding me. No shame in losing to PSU at home after you’ve racked up a bunch wins. Losing to PSU at home when you desperately need a win is another story
January 23rd, 2020 at 2:22 PM ^
This team is awful defensively, that’s coaching moron
See paragraph #3 above. Are you surprised that a team without Charles Mathews and now Livers is worse on defense? How dare Howard not petition the NCAA to get Mathews back on the roster. He sucks at coaching. Also, not sure 47 in Kenpom AdjD is "awful".
How many draftable players are on this roster? I count exactly 1 with Livers, so its not surprise that this team is regressing from last years team, which had 3 players drafted. But enjoying being overly negative and pessimistic for no reason over a first year coach who inherited a team with less NBA talent than the majority of the BIG.
January 23rd, 2020 at 7:34 PM ^
Sorry man giving up over 1.1 PPP in B1G play is awful. UofM is ranked 13th in the B1G in defensive efficiency. Calling that out as awful isn’t “overly negative” (LOL) it’s the truth. Not sure why you seem to be offended by it. This roster is plenty good enough without Livers to be better than that
January 23rd, 2020 at 7:34 PM ^
not sure why pointing out that the team has been awful defensively makes so many here upset. The team is much better than the way it’s been playing over the last month, it can’t all be explained away by Juwan just not having his guys. He’s struggling as is the team and staff as a whole.
January 23rd, 2020 at 9:39 AM ^
Too much yelling.
January 23rd, 2020 at 9:52 AM ^
This. Exactly this, In its entirety.
They aren't taking but a few bad shots a game and those were from deep. They just aren't hitting them.
Runners aren't falling. Hook shots aren't falling. Missing layups. Missing free throws.
5-28 from deep from a team with very little inside scoring to balance it out spells an L almost every time.
Gotta play inside-out no matter what, every possession, until Livers comes back.
January 23rd, 2020 at 10:03 AM ^
So let's just set this season on fire? A season that started out with wins over Gonzaga and UNC? Seems like a waste to me. I don't want Michigan to wait, I want them to compete. And if they keep playing like this I wouldn't be surprised if some of these recruits bail.
If Teske/Simpson miss the tournament in their senior season, especially after this year's hot start, that is a major tragedy, even worse than even this disappointment of a football season.
January 23rd, 2020 at 10:11 AM ^
This feels entirely similar to the early 2000’s where we kept clamoring we didn’t have the talent - finally brought in better players and still couldn’t get our heads above .500 in B1G play
January 23rd, 2020 at 12:02 PM ^
our team was more talented than Penn State's by a pretty decent margin
January 23rd, 2020 at 2:43 PM ^
Facts ----- is this what we have resorted to? We don't have enough to beat Penn State at home?
January 23rd, 2020 at 3:58 PM ^
Again...
January 23rd, 2020 at 4:07 PM ^
Let me know the last time PSU beat us Crisler.
January 23rd, 2020 at 4:16 PM ^
At least the struggle is this year. Look at osu, they are a tire fire with a coach in his 2nd year
January 23rd, 2020 at 7:47 AM ^
I appreciate this conversation. I was a bit out of my mind upset for a league game in January last night. I did not hear chemistry in his words. I also did not hear clear enough accountability. I was most upset that Coach didn't say how egregious their coaching of these young men has been. Regression in all forms is a result of leadership. The idea that a couple of losses are a result of a rigid defensive strategy to not double the bigs and a clear lack of adjustment defensively to what should be a growing pool of film on teams is concerning to me more than the obvious lack of talent and their development. I recognize that Coach Beilien was exceptional at developing talent. The contrast isn't fair. However, I am concerned about Howard's lack of adjusting to what he has. At home, attack the rim offensively, the home whistle is something to gain at home and adjust to on the road. Put in the guys who can, as limited as that pool is, attack the rim.
Teske....oh boy. He looked like a fringe first round draft pick and now I'd wonder if he makes a G League team. That is on the coach. Team shot selection is a mystery in the sense of it's consistently bad. Why? I'm not saying there are not shots to hit but they don't hit them, consistently. This isn't a three point shooting team, talent wise, but it still is feeling like an effort of square peg in round hole.
I have no solutions and likely contributed no value but I appreciate the chance to express my thoughts without the f bombs a cursing over reactions I would have last night. Sucks. I was excited for Coach Howard. I've grown concerned and dreading the possibility of five years of Warde being cowardice with a lackluster program. I look forward to getting back to the previous....
January 23rd, 2020 at 8:15 AM ^
If it turns out Juwan can't coach, I don't see this lasting 5 years. Winning will result in fans ignoring the shortcomings. Juwan and Harbaugh aren't the most compelling speakers. Listening to either attempt to explain away losses won't do anything but make the perception even worse.
A comedian once said that nothing is more effective at dropping 40 points from your IQ, than a missing tooth. Likewise with a person in a leadership position who can't speak well. Your IQ could be 150 but if you are a horrible speaker, everyone will think you are a dumb ass everytime you open your mouth.
January 23rd, 2020 at 7:55 AM ^
Defense is a real problem. Our Defense has won us a lot of games the last 2 years with an off shooting night. In the past we could still eek out wins scoring 60 points. This team does not have a Charles Matthews to play lock down defense.
Add to the fact that Teske and Simpson have been playing below average this month and you have the perfect storm for what we are seeing now.
January 23rd, 2020 at 8:06 AM ^
For the first time in years, this team doesn't have an elite defensive assistant. I think that has more to do with it than anything.
January 23rd, 2020 at 8:11 AM ^
This seems to be a big chunk of the issue. Based on personnel, this doesn't look too different from a Beilein coached team prior to the defensive renaissance of the last few years.
January 23rd, 2020 at 8:41 AM ^
Maybe keeping Yaklich was impossible, but letting him get away was a much bigger blow than many people wanted to admit.