Stewart Mandel (TheAthletic) Says Michigan Likely Makes Playoff Even if they lose to Iowa

Submitted by WalterWhite_88 on December 4th, 2021 at 10:17 AM

I don't know how good of a reputation Stewart Mandel (from The Athletic) has, but in his article this week where he predicts what happens in 14 potential playoff scenarios, only 1 of the scenarios has Michigan not making the playoffs (Alabama beating Georgia, Iowa beating Michigan). Every other scenario, including several scenarios where Iowa wins, has Michigan still making the CFP. Interesting. His reasoning is the respect the CFP committee has for Michigan and their impressive wins over OSU and Wisconsin. (sorry to those that can't see the article due to lack of The Athletic subscription, but my summary above pretty much says it all)

Anyway, let's not have to sweat out one of these scenarios and JUST BEAT IOWA! Go Blue!

https://theathletic.com/2991880/2021/12/01/stewart-mandels-14-remaining-college-football-playoff-scenarios-from-most-chalk-to-least-notre-dames-in-likely/

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othernel

December 4th, 2021 at 10:28 AM ^

After talking about how strong the Big Ten is all season, they can't have a playoff with Cincinnati and OK State, and no Michigan or OSU.

BUT WE'RE NOT GONNA LOSE, so it doesn't matter

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Blue Vet

December 4th, 2021 at 10:40 AM ^

Go Blue. Beat Iowa.

(I've been writing "Go Blue. Beat Iowa."—or "Go Blue! Beat Iowa!"—for days now. Makes me glad we're not playing a school with a longer name. Imagine all the extra typing all week in "Go Blue. Beat Northwestern.")

Go Blue. Beat Iowa.

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Michigan Arrogance

December 4th, 2021 at 10:46 AM ^

I doubt this happens, and it's one man's opinion.

that said, I think the strength of the raod wins M has had this year, the one FLUKE, tight, road loss in a rivalry game makes Michigan essentially a 11.5-0.5 team right now.

11.5- and 1.5 with a loss to Iowa *is* better than most other resumes with 1 losses, including ND and OSU. 2 loss Bama as well, but not one loss Bama, 0 loss Cinci or 1 loss UGa.

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ak47

December 4th, 2021 at 11:05 AM ^

What about not punishing teams for playing an extra game? If Michigan has a better resume than nd after 12 games why should Michigan playing a 13th game nd gets to avoid hurt Michigan? 
 

Theoretically championship games should only be able to help, and a team in a championship game should never drop below a team that doesn’t play this week

But rather than worry about that just win tonight 

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greymarch

December 4th, 2021 at 11:19 AM ^

Mandel is smoking crack.

 

The only chance UM could make the CFP, if UM loses to Iowa, is if the following happens:

 

 

1. UM loses a razor-close game to Iowa, perhaps mainly due to an obviously incorrect penalty call from the refs.

 

2. Alabama not only gets crushed by Georgia, but Alabama plays so poorly, no one in their right mind thinks Alabama is a top-4 team.

3. Baylor defeats Oklahoma State.

4. Houston defeats Cincinnati.

5. Utah would likely need to defeat Oregon. (edited. Check.  Happened last night.)

 

Then the CFP is in utter chaos.  Only Georgia and Notre Dame (ND has 1 loss. If GA and ND are the only 1-loss teams, ND is in.)  For slots 3 and 4, the CPF would have to pick 2 from this list: Alabama, Michigan, Cincinnati, Ok.State, Ohio State.  5 teams with two losses.  You could even add Ole Miss, Sparty and Iowa into that list of 2 loss teams the CFP must choose from to fill the remaining 3 spots.  So, the committee might consider 8 teams for those two remaining CFP spots.

 

Let me put it another way, if UM loses to Iowa:

- Bama wins, they get a spot.

- Cincinnati wins, they get a spot.

- Ok.State wins, they get a spot.

- Oregon wins, they get a spot. (2 losses, and they beat-up Ohio State at Ohio State.  ed. didnt happen.  Oregon got crushed last night.  Oregon has 3 losses.  Oregon is permanently out.)

- Notre Dame only has 1 loss, so if it gets to the point that all the conference champs after today have two losses, then ND gets a slot.

 

Theoretically, it's possible UM could still get into the CFP if they lose to Iowa, and theoretically a jetliner is going to fall out of the sky over your house tonight, and smash that brand-new PS5 you were saving to give to your son for Christmas.  It isnt going to happen.

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