TrueBlue2003

October 19th, 2022 at 5:46 PM ^

Michigan and OSU don't even have to win out.  They just need to go at least 12-1 (with the loss not coming in the conf title game).

But then three other teams have to make it.

And it's absolutely possible that those other three teams are SEC teams.  If Bama, UGA and Tennessee each end up with just one loss, only an undefeated team would have an argument to be in ahead of any of them unless their loss is lopsided.  And it's not crazy to imagine that happening.  UGA would have to win all remaining games until SEC title game (likely by itself), Tenn would have the win the rest of their non-UGA games (likely by itself), and Bama would have to win out, including a win over UGA in SEC title game (unlikely by itself but still a decent chance).

This is mostly because Bama beat the likely b12 champ on the road and UGA crushed the likely p12 champ and Michigan played a horrible non-conf schedule (so def won't get in at 11-1 over any of those teams should they also be 11-1).

Too bad Michigan doesn't have a win over UCLA...

charblue.

October 19th, 2022 at 7:39 PM ^

In order for this alleged scenario to transpire, Alabama would have to run the table. They face matchups against several ranked opponents and either a rematch with Tennessee or Georgia in the championship game. Georgia and Tennessee will settle their path forward on Nov. 5. Either could potentially face Mississippi in the title match if Bama doesn't make it. 

Tennessee gets no benefit of any doubt having not had a legitimate playoff team in the playoff era. So, the Vols only way in is beating Georgia and winning the conference championship. Just like Alabama, Georgia is out if it loses a home game to Tennessee. 

But even if there's a group of potential 1-loss teams available, why should they get special treatment? That's typically only applied to past championship teams like the Crimson Tide and Clemson. Georgia and Ohio State both fall in that category, so wouldn't they also be considered in that category? Because they would have no shot at playing in their conference title game. You don't get ranked ahead of others if you don't fulfill the same eligibility requirements. 

There is nothing spectacular about SEC football this year. I mean Alabama has already gotten the benefit of the doubt with near stumbles against Texas and Texas A&M, the latter at home. 

Michigan has gone through these same gauntlet matchups in the past. The Wolverines have experienced the pain of national and conference voting bias altering its historical record and championship perception.

If Ohio State and Michigan are undefeated heading into their matchup in late November, does anyone in college football not think that game is bigger than any rivalry game in the SEC or that Columbus isn't hosting a monster early playoff round?

I mean there is only a chance that even a single undefeated SEC team will be playing Thanksgiving weekend. And that would be Ole Miss, which will meet either Georgia or Tennessee the following week with hardly the same allure as Michigan-Ohio State. 

 

Vasav

October 19th, 2022 at 5:44 PM ^

The thing that annoys me is how he starts by saying things like "Big 12 - ain't happening" and then saying "no this isn't likely." The basic premise is something we've mentioned on this board and something every SEC fan is dreaming, hoping, wishing for - validation that their league is all that truly matters.

I wrote this in another thread but I think the order (not seed, and not probability) of CFP bids is  

1) SEC Champ 2) Winner of the game with <=1 loss 3) undefeated P5 champ

---------

4) Big Ten west champ that beats an East champ in the BTCG 5) 1 loss P5 champ 6) 1-loss SEC also-ran 7) 1 loss loser of The Game 8) 2 loss M-OSU winner that loses BTCG

I think that if the loser of the Game won't be taking a spot from any 1-loss SEC also ran, but likewise a 1-loss champ will take priority. I also think that the Big Ten West is unlikely to win in Indy, FWIW.

Westside Wolverine

October 19th, 2022 at 9:14 PM ^

The ONLY way any team from the B1G West makes the playoff is if Illinois runs the table. That is only because they would beat UM and OSU - those wins would cover up the black eye of the Indiana loss. I would give 100:1 odds against that outcome. The committee would not take any other B1G champ coming out of the west under any circumstance - and they shouldn't. A one loss TCU, UCLA, OK ST, or USC are all more desirable and deserving. 

HarBoSchem

October 19th, 2022 at 5:44 PM ^

2006- nah, you can't replay the national championship between Michigan vs. OSU.

2011- we never said two SEC teams couldn't replay their game for the NC.

Sometime after 2016- you can't play for the championship if you don't win your conference. 

2021- we never said SEC had to win their conference championship to make the playoffs. 

NittanyFan

October 19th, 2022 at 5:45 PM ^

If one posits that the B1G East Champ wins in Indy and makes the playoffs (a fairly safe assumption), the SEC gets 3 teams if and only if their 3rd team makes it in over ALL of the following:

  • The Pac-12 champ, who could (likely?) have 1 loss or less.
  • The Big XII champ, who could (less likely than the Pac-12, I'd argue) have 1 loss or less.
  • Clemson, who may lose a game at some point here but likely doesn't lose more than one.
  • A theoretical 11-1 B1G East Division runner-up (further, there could yet be multiple teams that both together fit this criteria).
  • Tulane, which (don't laugh), could theoretically finish 12-1 with a road victory over the Big XII Champ (K-State).
  • Notre Dame (well, DO laugh at that one).

We will see what happens - but I doubt they get 3.  I'd put the chances at well under 1%.

Vasav

October 19th, 2022 at 5:56 PM ^

I see what you did there with the Big Ten East. Username definitely checks out.

That said, I think an SEC also ran with 1 loss would get in over Tulane for sure, not as sure about a Big Ten 1-loss also ran, probably even there. P5 conference champs with 1 loss or less would definitely get in over them - but as you point out I'm not sure how likely it is. If Clemson gets by 'Cuse I think this SEC fever dream is unlikely. If they don't, then we can definitely fret about it, and equally fret about the CFP being an SEC-Big Ten challenge.

NittanyFan

October 19th, 2022 at 6:12 PM ^

I only really mentioned Tulane so I could get the Notre Dame "joke" in there --- I'm sure they'd be completely ignored by the committee at 12-1. 

Tough loss to Southern Miss for them - a game decided by a pick-six.  Short of that game, their resume could (if they win out, of course) look a lot like 2021 UC.

NeverPunt

October 19th, 2022 at 6:08 PM ^

Look, there is an easy way to fix this. Well easy …maybe not. But we gotta get some other teams in there and winning. We can’t send OSU to get blown out by Alabama or offer up Michigan to get trounced by Georgia. I’m not saying they are right, but if we want to change the narrative the B1G and PAC 12 and Big 12 gotta get their teams into the championship and beat the brakes off the SEC on the regular. Until we do, this is going to continue, right or wrong. Even when the playoff expands, if it’s 4 SEC teams and 4 for the other conferences, we gotta WIN those games and shut those assholes up. I was as giddy as anyone to make the CFP last year but it was clear we weren’t on the same level. Fix that for a few seasons and we can change that up. 

dankbrogoblue

October 19th, 2022 at 9:37 PM ^

Totally agree. I think several things are true in the current landscape:

A. The top of the SEC (Alabama, Georgia, and LSU when they have their shit together) is the créme of college football. It sucks, but it’s hard to deny.

B. It’s easier to beat those teams in the middle of a season than when there’s a singular focus on them beating you

C. The SEC has a narrative advantage that when an underdog wins it proves the strength of the conference, where the Big Ten seems to have the opposite.

I went to the Orange Bowl last year and had a good time with Georgia fans, but the one time I got pissed off was when a Georgia fan said something about how it’s different playing the SEC. I told him to give Georgia more credit. 2021 Michigan would’ve beat 12 of 14 SEC teams at least 7/10 times on a neutral field.

UgLi Eric

October 19th, 2022 at 6:21 PM ^

It's just not smart to agree to a 4 team playoff while there are 5 major conferences. If all 5 go undefeated, or all have one loss, that's just asking for a biased filter to remove at least one potentially feasible team. If the SEC gets 2 teams in half the years, that's even less fair. Plus there are other mid major conferences that can have good teams. 6+ teams should have gotten in from the start. 

L'Carpetron Do…

October 19th, 2022 at 8:46 PM ^

Yeah, that's a pretty annoying article and not very convincing. It starts with major assumptions and then doesn't really make strong arguments for why those 3 teams would deserve it over teams from the PAC-12, B1G, Big XII and ACC. It just lazily claims they haven't been good. There are 9 undefeated teams left so I think it's a stretch to say that "the rest of America can’t keep up". 

I think it's funny how they would dismiss an undefeated TCU or 1-loss K-State or Ok State as being extremely unlikely but also undeserving. That would mean that whoever comes out of that conference undefeated or with 1-loss will likely have beaten SEC-bound college football media darlings Texas and Oklahoma. But, it's funny how that's not an accomplishment anymore (it's not- they're not particularly good right now). Also, it seems like Clemson and one of Michigan or Ohio State are going to finish undefeated. I also think it's a ridiculous argument to make when those teams are still undefeated and the PAC-12 is the strongest it's been in years (the PaC-12 could  come crashing down but to start with the assumption that other teams/conferences aren't playing well is off base). 

This also overlooks the fact that Alabama has not looked particularly good - they easily could've lost to Texas and A&M and could be 3-3. While they usually bounce back from losses like this and make the CFP, dropping another one is not outside the realm of possibility. Their defense is not good. Tennessee couldn't really play defense either so I wonder how they fare down the stretch. 

bronxblue

October 19th, 2022 at 9:17 PM ^

That being zombie deadspin I'm not surprised it's barely a coherent article that starts from a false assumption (that potentially 4 SEC teams will finish with 0-1 loss while everyone else in college football save the Big 10 East champ is unappealing and will lose multiple games) and then spends a lot of time convincing the reader it's a likely outcome.

Anyway, there's a good chance that Ole Miss loses to LSU or A&M in the coming weeks, let alone likely getting hammered by Alabama.  UT might remain undefeated or the fact they've beaten 3 of their 4 P5-level opponents by 1 score or less might point to a team that is prone for an upset when the breaks don't go their way.  We'll see in two weeks when they play UK.  Georgia looks really good at times and other times they nearly lose to a mediocre Missouri team.  

There's still a ton of football to be played and articles like this seem silly.

bighouseinmate

October 19th, 2022 at 9:44 PM ^

They started planting the seeds for it the next day when they posted an article about ranking the one loss teams with the best chance to make the playoffs. ESPN would be ecstatic if bama, Tennessee and Georgia all end up with only one loss.

 

turtleboy

October 19th, 2022 at 10:03 PM ^

Before there was a playoff the press wanted to just pick an SEC team every year. Then there was a 2 team playoff, and the press wanted to just pick the SEC every year, now there's a 4 team playoff, and the press are leaning: just pick 4 SEC teams. Fuck the SEC, Michigan would demolish Tennessee, or any team in the SEC west this season. If they want to put 2 teams from a conference this year, they should take 2 B1G teams. 

MaizeGoBlue

October 20th, 2022 at 7:34 AM ^

What a bunch of BS...IF that were to happen I say the rest of the nation just leave the NCAA to just the SEC and they can do whatever they want BY THEMSELVES

Hotel Putingrad

October 20th, 2022 at 7:34 AM ^

I just will never understand why every other conference championship has relevance, but the SEC gets to just make shit up as they go.

Even if you had an eight team playoff and made one half of the bracket all SEC teams, they'd still argue they should get a fifth.

I hate them.

CompleteLunacy

October 20th, 2022 at 7:58 PM ^

THIS is why a 12-team playoff is needed. The SEC has taken up 50% of playoff spots in several past years, and now we are getting the propaganda that is suggesting 75% is correct. Yet I also see WAY more teams in the hunt than we normally are used to.

Yes expanding to 12 means probably 4 SEC teams. You know what? I will take that over whatever propaganda they promote with 3 out of 4 spots. FOH. Play a 9-game conference schedule, and stop playing FCS teams in October and November. Pretty weak for the "best conference in the country".