So I just watched the Army - Oklahoma game from last year...
And I am a lot less concerned than I was before. I am assuming that M’s offense will be “Oklahoma-lite” this year and that our defense will be better than OU despite the personnel losses. I am not saying that this will be easy, only that M should win this game at least 2 scores...
What I saw:
Oklahoma O vs. Army D.
- Oklahoma only got 7 drives in the game - They scored easily on their first 3. The next 4 they did not score on were — 2 min drive in 1st half (4 or 5 and out), BAD int on an unneeded bomb when they could have taken control early Q3, Turnover on downs when they could not convert in two tries after 3rd and goal from the 1, missed chip shot FG at end of regulation (Riley played for the FG even with multiple TOs)
- The Sooners only faced THREE third downs in those 7 drives (they were 1 for 3) and averaged 11 yards per pass and 7.6 yards per rush.
Oklahoma D vs. Army O
- OU’s defense was “not great” and seemed not really setup to face power football. They were getting beat up on fullback dives with standard D so when they adjusted Army would get them out wide.
- Army was able to go 4-4 on 4th downs until OT - one of these was 4th and 8! OU also allowed several 3rd and medium-to-long conversion runs.
- Tackling was bad by OU. On one Army scoring drive they allowed Army to convert a 3rd and 11 after 3 defenders hit but did not wrap up the QB on the option. This was the worst example but by far not the only one.
- Oklahoma did not record a TFL until they did it twice with less than 4 minutes left in the game on Army’s last possession in regulation. (This was only after they had allowed Army to drive 69 yards from their own 1 to approach FG range.)
- As soon as Army got into desperation mode (3rd and long on last drive in regulation and OT) both possessions ended in INTs
TLDR - Don’t worry, be happy.
August 10th, 2019 at 3:44 PM ^
I'm still worried.
August 10th, 2019 at 7:17 PM ^
Concern troll
August 10th, 2019 at 7:31 PM ^
I posted this the 2 or 3 years ago that we played a service academy, Bush got dinged, Gary hurt his shoulder, Chase sat for a bit, Solomon's or Mone's knee (can't remember who) and many other players sustained nagging injuries that never went away as the season progressed.
Why we continue to play them is absolutely asinine. A win or loss is actually the least relevant. Sustaining injuries because our players are gassed, wasting time learning a scheme that we won't see again, and having our defensive players exposed on film are all huge negatives.
All of our players are the heights, weights, and skillsets to play a certain way (hint, it's a repetitive game), and that "hard-nosed" football mantra of "we're not going to play them any different" is just logically incorrect, not to mention stuck in the past, not to mention CFB has changed so much since then (h/t B.Hoke).
And they play guerilla warefare style, asymmetrical warefare, taking advantage of our specialized 300lb DL making them run and cut in open space which is not good for their ankles/knees, etc.
Of course I would like to "win all the games", but it's not 1997 anymore, the way you win it all only necessitates getting to the Conf. Champ, then CFP. Alabama, love them or hate them, has been cupcaking their 2nd-to-last conf. game and literally gotten a 2nd bye-week for rest, rehab, and film study.
If you want to win, you have to take every advantage there is. I don't look forward to watching a game that is a game of attrition, and has ZERO upside, and ONLY downside.
For the love of god stop scheduling them.
August 10th, 2019 at 7:49 PM ^
You do understand that Oklahoma is not known for defense, right? Even with the players we lost, we are still superior in coaching and talent to theirs.
August 10th, 2019 at 3:44 PM ^
I'm always wary of facing a triple option team, much less one that only lost 1 game last year. Not to mention we waste a week practicing for an offense that we won't face again the rest of the season. It's just a bad decision to schedule these games, the upside is nil and the downside is significant.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:01 PM ^
What the triple option does is force your defense to be gap sound. Practicing on being gap sound is not a waste and can help you for the remainder of the season.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:08 PM ^
Duke beat them by 3 TDs last year my dude. Doesnt anyone remember when we played AF and completely shut them down with the exception of 1 play?
August 10th, 2019 at 4:54 PM ^
That defense was also led by two 1st round picks and two 3rd round picks. Do we have that much talent on this defense? Probably not.
August 10th, 2019 at 6:04 PM ^
Wrong year, dude.
August 10th, 2019 at 6:16 PM ^
IDK, they started doing the draft after the season now
August 10th, 2019 at 6:15 PM ^
Well they lost two games. Now go look at their schedule last year. They played 3 FCS schools, and their best win was probably against one of those 3 schools. They lost to the only two teams they played that had a pulse. Don’t be overly impressed by their record.
Now the key to beating the triple option is playing your gaps, and playing assignment football. Their goal is to churn the clock and keep your offense off of the field. If you’re able to get a few quick stops or a turnover, you can put the game away in a hurry. If you allow them to hold onto the ball for 40+ minutes, they’ll keep it low-scoring and that’s when you could be in danger.
Youre going to be bigger, stronger, faster, and more talented than them on both sides of the ball. It’s entirely about playing smart, assignment football. You’re not going to get many drives on offense so you have to capitalize on them.
When Michigan played Air Force, Air Force had 5 three and outs on 11 drives. They went 3/13 on 3rd down. That’s how you beat a triple option.
August 10th, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^
"Army took Oklahoma to ot, but don't worry."
Not helping...
August 10th, 2019 at 8:09 PM ^
It should. Oklahoma doesn’t have a defense. To beat the triple option you have to get stops. Oklahoma has 7 offensive drives that game on account of... they couldn’t get stops.
Army wants to hold onto the ball as much as possible. Force a few three and outs, and they’re toast. You will be better than them. The key is making the most of the limited opportunities you will get.
The score will likely be closer than you’d like, but Oklahoma struggling isn’t something that should worry Michigan.
August 10th, 2019 at 9:04 PM ^
Force a few three and outs and score quickly in response. Turn their time-eating run offense into a liability and take them out of their game early. Their D is not good. Very not good. They only scored 28 on Colgate last year.
August 11th, 2019 at 6:28 PM ^
Wonder why Daxton Hill decided to come to Michigan and not the in state power, perennial best team in the 12, yet who also is widely known for not playing much defense.
No worries here.
August 10th, 2019 at 3:48 PM ^
In Bill Connelly's Army preview he noted that they were historically good on converting 4th downs. I just have this feeling that they won't be converting very many against Don Brown.
August 10th, 2019 at 6:43 PM ^
I made a good amount of money betting on army last year, a lot of it was "live betting" online as the game was in progress. You could find some very favorable lines by reconizing when the other defense is about to give in. They often did this by converting a few fourth downs that basically broke the will of the opposing defense.
They were so good on fourth because they were in fourth and 1 and 2 a bunch and the coach pretty much rolled the dice and went for it anytime they inside the fifty, including in the redzone. There offense is good enough to get a few 4th down conversions if Michigan lets them get in those situations.
August 10th, 2019 at 3:54 PM ^
Get with it, man!
Our concern has shifted toward MTSU!
August 10th, 2019 at 3:55 PM ^
I'm not concerned at all. I know full well we're going to lose.
August 10th, 2019 at 6:01 PM ^
I am concerned that everyone is so concerned.
August 10th, 2019 at 6:06 PM ^
Please clarify. Are we going to lose to Army...MTSU...or both?
August 10th, 2019 at 6:24 PM ^
No ..he's an Army fan now. He revolted March 15th.
August 10th, 2019 at 3:55 PM ^
But UM is playing Army this year.
August 10th, 2019 at 3:56 PM ^
Oklahoma was a playoff team with the Heisman Trophy winner and Number 1 overall pick! Let’s not act like Army didn’t go up against a really good team and held their own. I think our offense will be very good this year...but will Shea be Kyler; Nico/DPJ be CeeDee/Hollywood Brown by week 2 in a new system? They will test us and our Defense better be ready for their ground attack. Love the optimism but they are a major cause of concern, at least until we see how both units look after week 1
August 10th, 2019 at 6:18 PM ^
They also lost to Duke by 20.
August 10th, 2019 at 7:08 PM ^
Oklahoma had a very bad D last year.
August 10th, 2019 at 10:34 PM ^
I have one correction to make:
very, very bad
2 verys.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:01 PM ^
According to the other thread MTSU is the concern.
Im a bit concerned that I’m not quite sure what to be fully concerned about anymore.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:09 PM ^
Then they’ve got you right where they want you.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:02 PM ^
I was never worried about that one.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:08 PM ^
A list of games to not worry about, not even for a moment: MTSU, Army, Rutgers, Illinois, Penn State, Maryland, MSU.
Feel free to focus your concern for any of those games on my lack of concern.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:17 PM ^
Don't worry about @Penn State? Pass the xanny bars
August 10th, 2019 at 4:33 PM ^
A simple survey for worrying about Penn State and MSU in the Harbaugh era:
1) Is this the opponent's best team of the last decade?
2) Is John O'Korn your quarterback?
- If yes to 1 or 2: Worry
- If yes to both: Be very afraid
- If no to both: Don't worry, be happy
August 10th, 2019 at 6:10 PM ^
If we’re gonna throw out games 2015 Penn State was pretty bad (Hackenberg and a terrible line, Freshman Saquon) and it wasn’t at night. So basically it’s just 1-0 right?
August 10th, 2019 at 7:35 PM ^
I'm not throwing out any losses the same way Penn State doesn't get to throw away any of Franklin's 12 losses vs 3 wins against Michigan, OSU and MSU.
They all count the same I'm just providing my worry-free index.
August 10th, 2019 at 5:42 PM ^
MSU hung with Michigan pretty well last year despite having no pulse on offense. If Lewerke stays healthy then MSU is going to be a tough game and they should be in the area of double-digit wins for the season.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
The analysts have been working on this game since January. Brown has all summer to prepare. Michigan wins big.
August 10th, 2019 at 5:40 PM ^
Damn straight umbig11.
Army has yet to play an opponent like Meeechigan!!!
GO BLUE ?
August 10th, 2019 at 9:41 PM ^
That’s weird because now you have to tell us what paysite, podcast and random free website you got this information from since you are NOT an insider.
August 12th, 2019 at 9:34 PM ^
I'll say it again, I played at Army when Warriner was there. he'll provide great insight!
August 10th, 2019 at 4:10 PM ^
Army's defense couldn't stop OU. They averaged like 9 YPP and finished drives in under 4 minutes. The only reason they didn't score on 7/8 drives was because of a missed 30 yard FG, an INT at the Army 15, and a TOD at the Army 1. They had 1 punt all game.
Army lost 2 or 3 of their best pass rushers from last year as well.
Army's offense went 19/26 on 3rd and 4th downs. That's unsustainable against a defense with a pulse.
August 10th, 2019 at 7:14 PM ^
Thanks - this is exactly what I was trying to say above.
M’s offense will (probably) not be as good as 2018 OU but we will be able to move the ball and score.
Even a “down” Don Brown defense will not give up over 70% 3rd/4th conversion rate to a team like this.
Ergo Michigan should win..most likely in a comfortable manner.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:13 PM ^
Army is a good football team but they are not going to be able to keep pace. Also they are not built to win games once they get a couple scores behind. They will have some success on offense here and there, but their defense will struggle to keep us off the board on each and every drive.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:14 PM ^
I'll worry anyway.
Oklahoma couldn't get stops. Yeah, their D was a little weak... but our D might be, too. If you get into a game and realize you've been got, you've been got.
Don Brown should have the team ready tactically. But if Army can crease the D-Line, we could have problems. And we don't have Kyler Murray QBing the offense.
I expect Michigan to win; I actually expect to win by a couple of scores, and things to be over by the third. But it could, easily, go very wrong, and if it goes wrong, it's a dogfight for 60+ minutes. And the things that can go wrong are things that could well happen. All of the things Oklahoma's defense struggled with could be issues again.
August 10th, 2019 at 5:03 PM ^
Worry away but I’ll take Don Brown’s worst D over Oklahama’s D any day. I watched them in a few games last year and it honestly looked like OUs defense thinks it’s better to just let the other team score and hope their offense will outgun the opponent
August 10th, 2019 at 6:23 PM ^
We're all still a bit singed by seeing Mattison's D use an antiquated scheme and make a game against Air Force a real chore, over a half a decade ago in the Hoke era. And we know that triple option teams can be tricky, and are also a bit of a hiccup when you're trying to get the team ready for B1G season.
But Brown is definitely a different horse here. He has proven, multiple times, that he's capable of addressing challenging schemes given time to prepare for them. So this is one area I think he'll be fine with.
Still, I'll choose to be nervous anyway.
August 10th, 2019 at 8:06 PM ^
A LITTLE weak????? They were statistically last in the friggin Big 12!!!!
I get people are worried about our D a bit, but come on!
August 11th, 2019 at 1:00 AM ^
Come on now. Oklahoma's defense last season was not "a little weak" -- it was abysmal. It was a punchline. It was 2010 Michigan defense bad.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:20 PM ^
Let's get the W by any margin, w no knee injuries to our D, get the Cadets out of town - and it will be a great day for the Wolverines!
And NO MORE games w the service academies!
August 10th, 2019 at 5:36 PM ^
No more games with service academies in US, probably.