So I just watched the Army - Oklahoma game from last year...
And I am a lot less concerned than I was before. I am assuming that M’s offense will be “Oklahoma-lite” this year and that our defense will be better than OU despite the personnel losses. I am not saying that this will be easy, only that M should win this game at least 2 scores...
What I saw:
Oklahoma O vs. Army D.
- Oklahoma only got 7 drives in the game - They scored easily on their first 3. The next 4 they did not score on were — 2 min drive in 1st half (4 or 5 and out), BAD int on an unneeded bomb when they could have taken control early Q3, Turnover on downs when they could not convert in two tries after 3rd and goal from the 1, missed chip shot FG at end of regulation (Riley played for the FG even with multiple TOs)
- The Sooners only faced THREE third downs in those 7 drives (they were 1 for 3) and averaged 11 yards per pass and 7.6 yards per rush.
Oklahoma D vs. Army O
- OU’s defense was “not great” and seemed not really setup to face power football. They were getting beat up on fullback dives with standard D so when they adjusted Army would get them out wide.
- Army was able to go 4-4 on 4th downs until OT - one of these was 4th and 8! OU also allowed several 3rd and medium-to-long conversion runs.
- Tackling was bad by OU. On one Army scoring drive they allowed Army to convert a 3rd and 11 after 3 defenders hit but did not wrap up the QB on the option. This was the worst example but by far not the only one.
- Oklahoma did not record a TFL until they did it twice with less than 4 minutes left in the game on Army’s last possession in regulation. (This was only after they had allowed Army to drive 69 yards from their own 1 to approach FG range.)
- As soon as Army got into desperation mode (3rd and long on last drive in regulation and OT) both possessions ended in INTs
TLDR - Don’t worry, be happy.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:23 PM ^
Still 20% worried.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:23 PM ^
As a Navy alum / fan, I envision this game will be a lot like the annual Navy - ND game where Navy usually strings together a couple of good drives early to keep it competitive but ends up getting steamrolled in the 2nd half with huge chunk running plays because their front 7 have absolutely no answers for the much bigger / better ND offensive line. Then Navy sells out to try to stop the run and ND's better athletes on the outside torch them for a couple of big plays and ND wins by double digits. Michigan will be ready and should win by a couple of a TDs.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:40 PM ^
Wow, way too much thought for Army
August 11th, 2019 at 12:22 AM ^
Worrying about Army seems to be the trendy thing to do around here.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:42 PM ^
Bunch of baby back bitches around here
August 10th, 2019 at 5:27 PM ^
+1 for the baby back bitches reference!!
August 10th, 2019 at 4:48 PM ^
This game is still going to be uncomfortable for at least a half. Maybe even by the start of the fourth. Army is going to suck up a lot of clock time with its drives so Michigan has to capitalize on the possessions it gets.
This is also the type of game where lack of depth up the middle on DT concerns me. Defending the triple option is hard enough. Defending it with next to no DT depth is even harder.
I do think Michigan will win, but this game is going to be really stressful for a while. Army won’t be even remotely intimidated, and regardless of what their schedule was, they still won 11 games last year.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:50 PM ^
Michigan isn’t playing them last year.
August 10th, 2019 at 4:54 PM ^
Other than winning, I just want our D line to finish the game without any injuries from Army’s cut blocking.
August 10th, 2019 at 5:00 PM ^
There’s nothing to fear but fear itself... and cut-blocks, those are terrifying.
August 10th, 2019 at 5:05 PM ^
We ran the triple option in high school. Whenever we faced it it was so easy to stop. I don’t understand the difficulty in stopping it. You must know you assignments yes, but if you are sound on those you can get a lot of tackles for loss.
August 10th, 2019 at 5:22 PM ^
Kansas lit OU’s defense up last year . Bit worried about Army what so ever
August 10th, 2019 at 10:19 PM ^
Oklahoma's defense gave up 704 yards to West Virginia last year.
That was the most yards West Virginia's offense had in a game all season, even more than they got on the Youngstown State Penguins defense, at 625 yards.
That's more yards than Michigan got in 2016 in the 78-0 Rutgers game. Michigan had 600 yards in that game.
Oklahoma's defense was legendarily bad last year.
August 10th, 2019 at 5:28 PM ^
I expect the refs to screw us over pretty hardcore in this game.
Yes, I always have that worry. But I believe the refs will have some misplaced sense of patriotism that will cause them to manufacture penalties against Michigan and ignore obvious things against Army, all in the name of keeping it close so "our fighting boys" aren't embarrassed in a game so many are already saying could be an upset.
August 10th, 2019 at 10:56 PM ^
I upvoted you due to being a fellow East Quaddie.
August 10th, 2019 at 5:29 PM ^
The first 2 games are warmups for the real start of the season which is on 9/21 in Madison.
August 10th, 2019 at 5:31 PM ^
I was never concerned about the Army game. Yeah, I'm not a fan of having to prepare for the triple option but there's no reason we should lose to them.
August 10th, 2019 at 5:54 PM ^
Army also lost their stud Defensive coordinator to UNC. May take a step back defensively without him. They were super confusing last year, made up for a lot of talent deficiency.
August 10th, 2019 at 5:57 PM ^
We’re not Oklahoma light on offense, we’re not an air raid and Gattis might be a future star but he called a single play in his career.
We’re Penn State without Saquon Barkley. Go watch them
August 10th, 2019 at 7:01 PM ^
I apologize for the terminology then. What I meant was that we will be spread (like OU) though probably not as good. By the way - the Air Raid offense you mention ran the ball 60% of the time in this game because it was so freakin easy to do so versus the Army defense. (And yes I realize the term relates more to the formations than the play mix.)
August 10th, 2019 at 8:42 PM ^
The offense doesn't really matter that much, ultimately. Army's defense will crumple against any Power 5 offense if they can't hold onto the ball for long stretches. This game is all about the defense shutting down the option, which OU's absolutely terrible defense predictably could not do. Doubt Michigan will have the same problem.
August 10th, 2019 at 6:11 PM ^
Get 3 and outs...or 4 and outs...win big.
August 10th, 2019 at 6:29 PM ^
It’s laughable to think anybody in the Big 12 could ever stop a service academy triple option. Saw that one coming a mile away. Hell Bama traditionally has problems with that style offense too, plus they are familiar with it.
August 10th, 2019 at 7:02 PM ^
Someone mentioned to me that the spread has us favored by 17.5, and all I could think is that I really would like to just get past Army. This one still has me mildly concerned in some respects.
August 10th, 2019 at 7:15 PM ^
Oklahoma's defense was terrible last year.
August 10th, 2019 at 7:29 PM ^
Understatement of the year. I would use the term pathetic. Worse Power 5 defensive unit I have ever seen.
August 10th, 2019 at 7:28 PM ^
The fact they lost to Duke by 20, beat a Miami-OH team by 1, a good UB team by 30, nearly lost to FCS Colgate, took Oklahoma to OT, and destroyed Houston by 56 is the entire POINT. It's the variance!! Looking at past scores and games is irrelevant. If you can stop them from running their offense efficiently you will cruise. If you can't, you won't.
Some directional Michigan would have next to no chance to beat Michigan. It would require a huge turnover differential and some other bad things to happen to just keep them in the game.
Army doesn't need that to beat you. If they can move the ball, and that is a big IF against Don Brown, then they can control the clock and keep possessions to a minimum which is about the perfect recipe to win a game as a huge underdog.
Michigan could win the game 52-7 in a laugher. They could win the game 35-14. They could win a tighter game than expected, 27-21. Or they could lose! And the chance of Michigan losing this game is much greater against Army than nearly any other non-Power 5 team. Is the chance small? Absolutely. But it's not miniscule as it would be against most any other non-Power 5 team
August 10th, 2019 at 8:39 PM ^
OU's defense was historically bad last year. M's will be significantly better, even with a lot of inexperienced players.
August 10th, 2019 at 9:01 PM ^
I think it's an honor to play a service academy and it should be encouraged.
Alabama is 1-0 against army. UM is 4-5. Msu is 0-2. Clemson is 0-1. Oklahoma is 3-1. Notre dame is 39-8-4. Tennessee is 5-2-1. Etc
Long live primetime service academy matchups.
August 10th, 2019 at 10:03 PM ^
Michigan had the #1 defense last year.
Oklahoma had the #108 defense last year.
You can see that, and still worry anyway? Alright. Let that worry take up real estate in your head.
I'm going to smile, and look forward to a Michigan domination of Army, at the Big House!
August 10th, 2019 at 10:12 PM ^
Living in Oklahoma and watching their games last year, I will tell you this..... Their defense was God awful. Michigan’s defense, compared to OU’s, is like night and day. OU was constantly out of position, and played no “assignment defense” for that game. While they aren’t Rutgers, in terms of talent, as long as Michigan plays good solid defense, I see no issues. Not over confident, I just trust Don Brown’s defense over that trash that Mike Stoops put out for that game.
August 10th, 2019 at 10:54 PM ^
Beat MTSU?
August 11th, 2019 at 7:10 AM ^
We will beat Army by 39.
August 11th, 2019 at 7:19 AM ^
.......................m 48 Army men 10
August 11th, 2019 at 5:03 PM ^
I hate the idea of this game. We need to be dialed in week 1 but also need more than a week for the triple option. This is just the trap game of all trap games.
August 11th, 2019 at 7:07 PM ^
August 11th, 2019 at 10:22 PM ^
Go Navy! Beat Army! And never, ever, forget who we are playing, because these guys are badasses.
August 13th, 2019 at 8:27 AM ^
I went to the Army @ EMU game last year.
EMU actually out scored them in the second half but lost 37-21 on a cold and rainy day.
Army ran the ball for 289 yards and EMU got stuffed for only 34.
That won’t happen vs M.....