Saturday's Rooting Guide - Because we're still on the bubble edition
So, I went back & forth on whether to put this together but we're still right in the hunt of the bubble & f*$% it, why not? Before we get into today's games, let's look at where Michigan stands entering the day.
- First, we had one interesting game last night. Bubble team New Mexico took a bad loss on the road at Colorado State (thank you Rams!). They'll likely need to, at a minimum, make a run to the Mountain West championship game now. One less team in the mix for now.
- As for Michigan, their NET ranking stayed steady at 54.
- We're currently the 4th team out on Bracket Matrix, as we're on 9 brackets. We're behind North Carolina, Utah State, and Penn State.
Alright, quite a few games with bubble/rooting implications. Let's get into it:
- Ohio State (13-17, 5-14) at Michigan State (18-11, 10-8) - (MSU by 6.5) - 12pm EST on EPSN - I get it. I'd rather not have to worry about this game too. But MSU is one spot away from a critical 4th Quad-1 win for us. Just think of it this way, you're rooting for OSU to lose.
- Kansas State (23-7, 11-6) at West Virginia (17-13, 6-11) - (WVU by 5) - 2pm on Big 12 Network - At some point, there will be a limit to how many conference games a team can lose & still make the tournament. WVU is going to test those limits. Yes, they have 5 Quad-1 wins but could a team 6 losses below .500 in their conference get a spot? We could be about to find out. Go Wildcats!
- Tennessee (22-8, 11-6) at Auburn (19-11, 9-8) - (Auburn by 2.5) - 2pm on ESPN - Auburn is getting awfully close to the cliff. They've now lost 6 of their last 8 games. They also only have 2 Quad-1 wins. Let's ensure the Vols don't give them a 3rd one.
- Stanford (13-17, 7-12) at Oregon (17-13, 11-8) - (Oregon by 7) - 4pm on CBS - Oregon reminds me a lot of Michigan this year. 47 on the NET, 3 Quad-1 wins, 17 wins, decent conference record. This game with Stanford is a lose/lose for them. They won't move up much with a win here but a loss would be a big hit to their resume. Go Dancing Trees!
- UNLV (17-12, 6-11) at Nevada (22-8, 12-5) - (Nevada by 8.5) - Not televised - This game looked MUCH different earlier this week, before Nevada took a bad loss to Wyoming. Could it be two bad losses for Nevada in a row? That's what we're rooting for here, as Bracket Matrix has them as the 5th team from the cut line.
- Pitt (21-9, 14-5) at Miami (23-6, 14-5) - (Miami by 7.5) - 6pm on ACC Network - I give up what to do with Pitt lol so, for today, I'm sticking with the facts. Pitt had a bad loss to Notre Dame earlier this week. They are currently one spot behind Michigan on the NET rankings at 55. They now have 1 Quad-3 loss and 1 Quad-4 loss. Do with this game what you will.
- Oklahoma State (16-14, 7-10) at Texas Tech (16-14, 5-12) - (TTU by 6) - 6pm on ESPN2 - This is the ultimate 'I wish both teams could lose' game. But for now, Oklahoma State is right near us on almost all brackets. Texas Tech is on some bubbles but further back. For today, we're rooting for the Red Raiders.
- Duke (22-8, 13-6) at North Carolina (19-11, 11-8) - (UNC by 3.5) - 6:30pm on ESPN - So, am I telling you to root for Duke? Nope, but I'm telling you that UNC is right ahead of us on almost every bracket and we simply cannot afford them getting another Quad-1 win (they currently only have 1 & it's the biggest blemish on their resume).
- Notre Dame (11-19, 3-16) at Clemson (21-9, 13-6) - (Clemson by 9.5) - 8pm on ACC Network - First, let me say that it's comical that in theory, we're rooting for MSU, Duke and Clemson all in the same day lol But in all seriousness, Clemson is right around us on most bubble lines. Their problem is simple: too many bad losses. Clemson has 2 Quad-3 & 2 Quad-4 losses. This would essentially be an elimination game for them. But a win also doesn't help them much here.
- Mississippi State (20-10) at Vanderbilt (17-13, 10-7) - (MSU by 3.5) - 8:30pm on SEC Network - I genuinely struggled with what to do with this game. Vandy is sneaking onto the bubble late. They've won 7 of their last 8 games but they're currently only 84 on the NET rankings. They have 3 combined Quad-3 & Quad-4 losses but how much would a win over Mississippi State move them up? Enough to be concerned? MSU meanwhile is one of the Last Four In on Bracket Matrix, so my feel is Vandy can lose early in the SEC tourney but a win by them will help us for today. Curious what others think about that one?
- Boise State (23-7, 13-4) at Utah State (23-7, 12-5) - (USU by 5) - 9pm on HOW IS THIS GAME NOT TELEVISED?! - This is likely the most important game for Michigan today. Utah St. is a gawdy 22 on the NET rankings but haven't won a Quad-1 game yet and have 2 Quad-4 losses. They are right around the same place on the bubble as Michigan. Boise State on the other hand has 3 Quad-1 wins, so they're pretty safely in. We're rooting for Broncos big here.
- Arizona State (20-10, 11-8) at USC (21-9, 13-6) - (USC by 5.5) - 11pm on FS1 - Another pretty interesting game here. After their buzzer-beater against Arizona, ASU got plastered by UCLA in the 2nd half this week. We're rooting for USC to do the same today. Both of these teams are on the bubble but USC is a 10 on the Bracket Matrix right now. Arizona State is the 2nd to last team in. You do the math. Go Trojans!
So there you have it! Lots of interesting games today. If it's anything like last Saturday, it should be an awesome day of hoops. Enjoy my friends, Go Blue!
Thanks again for jumping on the rooting bandwagon True Blue 9, after Thursday's (12th this year?) dong punch - misery loves company, ha...
Agree with Vandy > Miss St. Miss State losing > variance than Vandy sneaking up from behind. Chaos and carnage is needed for all teams within 1 standard deviation of Michigan.
First and foremost, GO BLUE tomorrow. And next week.
...and to hell with Wiscy (go Gopher magic), PSU (Turtles please finally win a road game, how are you so high with no road wins?), Pitt (2 Ls and they have to drop below us H2H), Nevada, Bob Huggins-coached-near-20-conference-L Mountie teams, ASU buzzer-beaters, NC, Nevada, Utah State, Auburn, Oregon, Clemson, and all MSU's in general but particularly cowbell-oriented ones right now.
"So, I went back & forth on whether to put this together but we're still right in the hunt of the bubble & f*$% it, why not?"
I too went back & forth on whether to read this but we're still right in the hunt so *$% it, why not?
Thanks again for your work,
Looks like UNLV/Nevada and Boise/Utah St. are on something called Mountain West Network, which I assume is only readily available within the western part of the US.
Appreciate that, MH. ESPN is usually good with listing obscure channels but I guess not for those.
"Ohio State (13-17, 5-14) at Michigan State (18-11, 10-8)"
I'm not rooting for Moo - I'm just not.
"Duke (22-8, 13-6) at North Carolina (19-11, 11-8)
Notre Dame (11-19, 3-16) at Clemson (21-9, 13-6) "
I'm not rooting for these two either
lol totally get it. Just picture them both being unbolded ;)
I cannot stress how much I love these rooting guides. They're well-written, informative, and really add a lot of fun for me as a college basketball addict. Thank you!
He has a job for life now.
Um, congratulations?
sparty playing ohio. i'd like to start a 'gofundme' campaign to get that louisville dog to 'perform'.
I love the dedication but y'all need to accept that this team isn't not getting an invite unless they win the B1G tourney.
This is just objectively not true
Look at the teams they are competing with for the last spots. They have just as good of a chance to make it in as any of those teams. I know I’m an outlier here but I think one more win tomorrow or in big ten tournament, sneaks Michigan in. I would love to spoil IU’s senior day tomorrow.
Thanks for the pep talk, Dad.
Thank you for confirming Michigan's participation in March Madness via double-negative affirmation.
Michigan isn't getting an invite = no March Madness
Michigan is not getting an invite = no March Madness
Michigan isn't not getting an invite = March Madness!
I'm not totally unimpressed but what you didn't not write.
You aren't some bold truth teller or the sober voice of reason by being perpetually negative. You consistently have the most confidently ill-informed posts of anyone on the site.
Michigan is an underdog to get into the tournament. That does not mean the have to win the Big Ten Tournament. If they get to 19 wins they would be a heavy favorite to get an at-large bid. A win against Indiana might be enough but that is pushing it. They are 32 in Sagarin, 54 in NET, and 42 in KenPom.
Change your name,"PLEASE!"
Let's make a bet. Not that they'll get in straight up, but that they'll get in if they beat IU and win at least one in the BTT.
I'll bet as much money as you have.
Agree we want Vandy over Mississippi State. Since we are on the wrong side of the bubble right now, I think we need to be more concerned with teams slightly ahead of us losing than those slightly behind us because it gives us an opportunity to move up.
I’m also sticking on the root for Pitt bandwagon. I think a win today would move them into quad 1 territory. Gaining 2 extra quad 1 wins today to give us a total of 5 would have our resume looking much better.
It'll be razor thin between Sparty and UVA after today I would think.
Tennessee lost one of their best players, point guard I think, for the season. Will be interesting to see how they play without him.
Well, I'd argue the first game went our way. Question is, does MSU move up to a Quad-1 win? I think they likely do but it depends on what happens above them.
It'll be very close with UVA. Six at home v OSU is maybe slightly better than UVA by 15 over Louisville so depends on whether its enough to close the gap. All the big 12 teams in front of them won. Maybe Boise loses big (but we don't want that for Utah St).
Great stuff. And yeah, I get the ennui setting in but why the heck not live the dream for one more weekend.
MSU probably pops into the top 30 with a win, so at this point that helps UM. I suspect this is the last go-around for OSU's coaching staff anyway so might as well send them out with another loss.
I agree about WVU - they had a meh OOC schedule, are going to be one of the worst teams in their conference, and my guess is a loss here makes their at-large bid pretty weak. And their biggest claim-to-fame is sweeping ISU, with one of those Q1 wins (home vs. the Cyclones) dangerously close to becoming a Q2 win since they're at #28. Depending on how a number of games shake out the next couple of days UM might well have more Q1 wins than the Mountaineers.
I don't see Auburn falling out of the tourney but yeah, closing with losses in 7/9 games (and one of those being a 4-point win over 11-19 Ole Miss) isn't a good look. Tennessee giving them a nudge wouldn't be unappreciated.
Stanford beat Oregon earlier in the year and so it's not crazy they could do it again. I don't think it happens but as you mentioned this game is all danger and no upside for the Ducks.
I think Nevada wins against UNLV but they definitely are in trouble. The MW has quietly cannibalized its bubble teams and I wouldn't be surprised if a Big 10/12 school gets in at the expense of a team like Nevada if they get bounced earlier than expected in the MW conference tourney.
Yeah, I too have given up with Pitt. They're better than their NET rating would lead you to believe but you can't lose a game like that to ND at this point in the year. They're apparently a 10/11 seed to a bunch of prognosticator but were also a 9/10 seed before the ND game. Feels like a team that's probably in the tourney regardless but definitely might be stopping by Dayton first. I don't get a sense a loss to Miami changes that but they have no margin of error in the ACC tourney - 1/4 of that conference is full of Minnesota-level bad teams and so my guess is they have to at least win 2 more games to feel super-confident about the tourney.
TT vs. OSU both being considered bubble teams is crazy to me but, yeah, hope TT knocks them out. My guess is Okie St. wins but I'd be down with "first 9-OT tie ever in CBB history".
UNC got to deny Coach K a conference title AND a shot at a final national title last year; they don't get to also save their season with a win vs. the Dukies. That's not how life should work.
Clemson feels more on the outside looking in than other bubble teams; I suspect they win vs. the Irish but they probably need a big run in the ACC tournament to get in. The losses are bad but also they're only 7-5 vs. Q1+2 teams and half their ACC wins are against teams like GT, BC, FSU, and Louisville.
Mississippi St feels like a team that isn't going to drop from the tournament without 2 losses (obviously unless that second loss came late in the SEC tourney), so Vandy giving them the first would be good. Maybe Vandy is making a late run to the tourney but I have my doubts that happens, as while Vandy has gone on a hot streak they're the anti-Michigan in that a bunch of them have been close - 3 at home vs. Ole Miss, 1 at home against Tennessee, 2 at home vs. Auburn, 2 @Kentucky. They're also terrible at defense - 161st per KenPom - and so that string of luck can turn on a dime. Beat that Bulldogs and that's a win for UM.
I said earlier the MW is going to beat each other up and this is a prime example - Boise and USU have really nice resumes but USU is seemingly based mostly on quantity - 20-1 in Q2 and 3 games and 2-6 (!) in Q1 and 4 games. They lose this Boise game and they feel like the yearly G5 team that sits at home and everyone sort of feels bad for. Boise also needs this win to stay above any cut lines so go Broncos.
Finally, USC and ASU feels like a bit of an elimination game pending a long Pac-12 tourney run, even with USC being on the 10 line now. A loss here for ASU probably knocks them down the cut line and a loss by USC gives them a wet fart to end the regular season and puts pressure on them to win a couple Pac-12 tourney games. Whoever wins this game probably locks up a spot in the tourney so it's big.
I'm really annoyed watching this WVU-KSU game, as WVU just isn't that good but KSU is finding ways, not unlike ISU, to blow a lead.
WVU was dogshit all year until they get on the bubble and all of the sudden they are beating quad 1 team after quad 1 team. It’s amazing how some of these shit teams in these other conferences all of the sudden are world beaters.
Yeah, they're the classic team that gets hot for a week or two, sneaks into the tourney with "they're low rated but watch out" and then gets swamped in the first round because they really were dogshit. For the record, UM is also sort of like that but they at least have the excuse of youth. WVU is an old team.
And UM has a decent conference record. WVU doesn’t even have that. Michigan still has to beat Indiana though or none of this matters
Yeah frustrating game. The Auburn game isn’t going any better.
We’re just going to have to beat IU and do some damage in the BTT to have a shot with the way the bubble is shaping up this year.
Beat Indiana.
It can’t be said enough flip that dang CMU game or Iowa game and this season is just drastically different basically similar to last year with a potentially more talented team. Should we miss the tournament it’s going to be disappointing. Ah well beat Indiana tomorrow and do some damage in the BTT and maybe that’s enough to overcome all the adversity this year this team has gone through.
Go Dores!
That loss to Kentucky is looking much better than it did in January. Stanford also off to a hot start.
Watching Arkansas lose and was curious to see how close they are to the bubble. They are 3-8 in quad 1, so no better than us, and have fewer quad 1 & 2 wins than us, 7 vs 8. Despite this they still somehow have a net ranking of 16, so I suppose they must be a lock.
Thanks for staying strong and compiling this! It's easy for some to say "just win our games" but that doesn't quite show the whole story and where we truly stand right now.
You didn't list the Seton Hall-Providence game, but Providence should be in real trouble after getting smoked in that game at home.
They were clinging to the last 9 seed in the matrix but they'll drop like a rock in the quality metrics and their resume isn't all that strong.
3-8 in q1, only 3 q2 wins and a q3 loss.
We came into the week knowing the realistic goal was to get one of two on the road. Didn't get the first but the goal is absolutely still in front of us.
Even though it does not feel like it now, an IU win is just as good as a UI win. We were highly unlikely to win both. So we are in the same position we were in at the beginning of the week. A tough road, but there is a path.
well, we no longer have margin for error. coming into the week we needed 1 of 2. Now we need 1 of 1. Must win.
UNLV just handed Nevada another Q3 loss which is big
Indeed True! That’s essentially an elimination game without winning their league tournament.
Big win for us there.
Yeah, it hasn't been a great day for UM's bubble chances but Nevada dropping this game likely locks the MW into 3 bids, at best.
So….The ACC regular season champion is decided by the Pitt-Miami game and espn has college game day live from Chapel Hill, with their prime time game being for 4th through 7th place positioning in the same conference. How are we supposed to believe they have any kind of realistic view of college basketball?
Big help with Duke taking down UNC on the road. Still feels like the committee isn't going to be the ones to leave out the first preseason #1 team out of tournament but the Tar Heels have some work to do. UVA is literally on the line for a Q1 win (NET #30) and with this Duke loss they may well not have a single Q1 win come selection Sunday.
UNC loss helps a lot. Gotta think they're all but eliminated barring an ACC title run. They are 1-9 in q1!!! And good chance that one becomes a q2 by end of season.
Amazing how much they have fallen off. You would think that they have all new players, but you watch the game and the players' names are mostly the ones you saw win the NC.